scholarly journals Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manabu Abe ◽  
Toru Nozawa ◽  
Tomoo Ogura ◽  
Kumiko Takata
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Thin Layers ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract. This study investigates the effect of sea ice reduction on Arctic cloud cover in historical simulations with the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model MIROC5. Arctic sea ice has been shown to exhibit substantial reductions under simulated global warming conditions since the 1970s, particularly in September. This simulated reduction is consistent with satellite observation results. However, Arctic cloud cover increases significantly during October, leading to extensive reductions in sea ice because of the enhanced heat and moisture fluxes from the underlying ocean. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric model MIROC5 clearly show that sea ice reduction causes increased cloud cover. Increased cloud cover occurs primarily in the lower troposphere; however, clouds in the thin surface layers directly above the ocean decrease despite the increased moisture flux because the surface air temperature rises in these thin layers, causing the relative humidity to decrease. As cloud cover increases, the cloud radiative effect cause an increase in the surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) by approximately 40–60 % compared with changes in clear-sky surface DLR in fall. These results suggest that an increase in Arctic cloud cover as a result of reduced sea ice coverage may further melt the sea ice and enhance the feedback processes of Arctic warming.

scholarly journals Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 17527-17552 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Abe ◽  
T. Nozawa ◽  
T. Ogura ◽  
K. Takata
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Thin Layers ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract. This study investigates the effect of sea ice reduction on Arctic cloud cover in historical simulations with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model MIROC5. During simulated global warming since the 1970s, the Arctic sea ice extent has reduced substantially, particularly in September. This simulated reduction is consistent with satellite observation results. However, the Arctic cloud cover increases significantly during October at grids with significant reductions in sea ice because of the enhanced heat and moisture flux from the underlying ocean. Cloud fraction increases in the lower troposphere. However, the cloud fraction in the surface thin layers just above the ocean decreases despite the increased moisture because the surface air temperature rises strikingly in the thin layers and the relative humidity decreases. As the cloud cover increases, the cloud radiative effect in surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) increases by approximately 40–60 % compared to a change in clear-sky surface DLR. These results suggest that an increase in the Arctic cloud cover as a result of a reduction in sea ice could further melt the sea ice and enhance the feedback processes of the Arctic amplification in future projections.

scholarly journals Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (22) ◽  
pp. 14343-14356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manabu Abe ◽  
Toru Nozawa ◽  
Tomoo Ogura ◽  
Kumiko Takata
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Surface Layers ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract. This study investigates the effect of sea ice reduction on Arctic cloud cover in historical simulations with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model MIROC5. Arctic sea ice has been substantially retreating since the 1980s, particularly in September, under simulated global warming conditions. The simulated sea ice reduction is consistent with satellite observations. On the other hand, Arctic cloud cover has been increasing in October, with about a 1-month lag behind the sea ice reduction. The delayed response leads to extensive sea ice reductions because the heat and moisture fluxes from the underlying open ocean into the atmosphere are enhanced. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric part of MIROC5 clearly show that sea ice reduction causes increases in cloud cover. Arctic cloud cover increases primarily in the lower troposphere, but it decreases in the near-surface layers just above the ocean; predominant temperature rises in these near-surface layers cause drying (i.e., decreases in relative humidity), despite increasing moisture flux. Cloud radiative forcing due to increases in cloud cover in autumn brings an increase in the surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) by approximately 40–60 % compared to changes in clear-sky surface DLR in fall. These results suggest that an increase in Arctic cloud cover as a result of reduced sea ice coverage may bring further sea ice retreat and enhance the feedback processes of Arctic warming.

scholarly journals The Atmospheric Response to Three Decades of Observed Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1230-1248 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Screen ◽  
Ian Simmonds ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Robert Tomas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Arctic sea ice is declining at an increasing rate with potentially important repercussions. To understand better the atmospheric changes that may have occurred in response to Arctic sea ice loss, this study presents results from atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments in which the only time-varying forcings prescribed were observed variations in Arctic sea ice and accompanying changes in Arctic sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 2009. Two independent AGCMs are utilized in order to assess the robustness of the response across different models. The results suggest that the atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea ice loss have been manifested most strongly within the maritime and coastal Arctic and in the lowermost atmosphere. Sea ice loss has driven increased energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere, enhanced warming and moistening of the lower troposphere, decreased the strength of the surface temperature inversion, and increased lower-tropospheric thickness; all of these changes are most pronounced in autumn and early winter (September–December). The early winter (November–December) atmospheric circulation response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); however, the NAO-type response is quite weak and is often masked by intrinsic (unforced) atmospheric variability. Some evidence of a late winter (March–April) polar stratospheric cooling response to sea ice loss is also found, which may have important implications for polar stratospheric ozone concentrations. The attribution and quantification of other aspects of the possible atmospheric response are hindered by model sensitivities and large intrinsic variability. The potential remote responses to Arctic sea ice change are currently hard to confirm and remain uncertain.

scholarly journals Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9125-9139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeline Bichet ◽  
Paul J. Kushner ◽  
Lawrence Mudryk
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Continental Climate

Abstract Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980–2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST—SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980–2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing.

scholarly journals The Impact of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Atmospheric Circulation and the NAO

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 889-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus A. Pedersen ◽  
Ivana Cvijanovic ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Bo M. Vinther
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract Reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover can affect the atmospheric circulation and thus impact the climate beyond the Arctic. The atmospheric response may, however, vary with the geographical location of sea ice loss. The atmospheric sensitivity to the location of sea ice loss is studied using a general circulation model in a configuration that allows combination of a prescribed sea ice cover and an active mixed layer ocean. This hybrid setup makes it possible to simulate the isolated impact of sea ice loss and provides a more complete response compared to experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures. Three investigated sea ice scenarios with ice loss in different regions all exhibit substantial near-surface warming, which peaks over the area of ice loss. The maximum warming is found during winter, delayed compared to the maximum sea ice reduction. The wintertime response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation shows a nonuniform sensitivity to the location of sea ice reduction. While all three scenarios exhibit decreased zonal winds related to high-latitude geopotential height increases, the magnitudes and locations of the anomalies vary between the simulations. Investigation of the North Atlantic Oscillation reveals a high sensitivity to the location of the ice loss. The northern center of action exhibits clear shifts in response to the different sea ice reductions. Sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic cause westward and eastward shifts, respectively.

scholarly journals Simulated Atmospheric Response to Regional and Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 3945-3962 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Screen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The loss of Arctic sea ice is already having profound environmental, societal, and ecological impacts locally. A highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. There is emerging evidence that the geographical location of sea ice loss is critically important in determining the large-scale atmospheric circulation response and associated midlatitude impacts. However, such regional dependencies have not been explored in a thorough and systematic manner. To make progress on this issue, this study analyzes ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model prescribed with sea ice loss separately in nine regions of the Arctic, to elucidate the distinct responses to regional sea ice loss. The results suggest that in some regions, sea ice loss triggers large-scale dynamical responses, whereas in other regions sea ice loss induces only local thermodynamical changes. Sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas is unique in driving a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, followed in time by a tropospheric circulation response that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation. For October–March, the largest spatial-scale responses are driven by sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas and the Sea of Okhotsk; however, different regions assume greater importance in other seasons. The atmosphere responds very differently to regional sea ice losses than to pan-Arctic sea ice loss, and the response to pan-Arctic sea ice loss cannot be obtained by the linear addition of the responses to regional sea ice losses. The results imply that diversity in past studies of the simulated response to Arctic sea ice loss can be partly explained by the different spatial patterns of sea ice loss imposed.

Seasonal Forecasts of the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using a GCM-Based Seasonal Prediction System

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (16) ◽  
pp. 6092-6104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Chevallier ◽  
David Salas y Mélia ◽  
Aurore Voldoire ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gilles Garric
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract An ocean–sea ice model reconstruction spanning the period 1990–2009 is used to initialize ensemble seasonal forecasts with the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model version 5.1 (CNRM-CM5.1) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of fully initialized September and March pan-Arctic sea ice forecasts in terms of climatology and interannual anomalies. The predictions are initialized using “full field initialization” of each component of the system. In spite of a drift due to radiative biases in the coupled model during the melt season, the full initialization of the sea ice cover on 1 May leads to skillful forecasts of the September sea ice extent (SIE) anomalies. The skill of the prediction is also significantly high when considering anomalies of the SIE relative to the long-term linear trend. It confirms that the anomaly of spring sea ice cover in itself plays a role in preconditioning a September SIE anomaly. The skill of predictions for March SIE initialized on 1 November is also encouraging, and it can be partly attributed to persistent features of the fall sea ice cover. The present study gives insight into the current ability of state-of-the-art coupled climate systems to perform operational seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice cover up to 5 months in advance.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to the parameterization of leads in sea ice

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 96-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Flato ◽  
David Ramsden
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Open-water leads in sea ice dominate the exchange of heat between the ocean and atmosphere in ice-covered regions, and so must be included in climate models. A parameterization of leads used in one such model is compared to observations and the results of a detailed Arctic sea-ice model. Such comparisons, however, are hampered by the errors in observed lead fraction, but the parameterization appears to compare better in winter than in summer. Simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), using prescribed sea-surface temperatures and ice extent, are used to illustrate the effect of parameterized lead fraction on atmospheric climate, and so provide some insight into the importance of improved lead-fraction parameterizations and observations. The effect of leads in the AGCM is largest in Northern Hemisphere winter, with zonal mean surface-air temperatures over ice increasing by up to 5 K when lead fraction is increased from 1% to near 5%. The effect of leads on sensible heat loss in winter is more important than the effect on radiative heat gain in summer. No significant effect on sea-level pressure, and hence on atmospheric circulation, is found, however. Indirect effects, due to feedbacks between the atmosphere and ice thickness and extent, were not included in these simulations, but could amplify the response.

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