scholarly journals Dominant Modes of China Summer Heat Waves Driven by Global Sea Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Internal Variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (12) ◽  
pp. 3761-3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaiqiang Deng ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Ping Zhao ◽  
Zunya Wang

AbstractThis study applies the maximum temperatures at more than 2000 Chinese stations to investigate the dominant modes of China summer heat waves (HWs). The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the HW days reflects an increased frequency of HWs in northern China (NC), while the second and third modes represent two distinct interannual modes, with key regions over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and southern China (SC), respectively. The NC HWs are possibly associated with the Atlantic–Eurasian teleconnection, showing zonally propagating wave trains over the North Atlantic and Eurasian continent. The YRV HWs are proposed to be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation, which may trigger a southeastward-propagating wave train over northern Russia and East Asia that results in a high pressure anomaly over the YRV. The SC HWs are obviously dominated by the Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific warm SSTs owing to the transition from the preceding El Niño to La Niña, which excites above-normal highs over SC. The anomalously high pressures over NC, the YRV, and SC are usually accompanied by descending air motions, clear skies, decreased precipitation, and increased solar radiation, which jointly cause a drier and hotter soil condition that favors the emergence of HWs. The GFDL HiRAM experiments are able to reproduce the historical evolution of NC and SC HWs, but fail to capture the YRV HWs. The correlation coefficient between model PC1 (PC2) and observed PC1 (PC3) for the period of 1979–2008 is 0.65 (0.38), which significantly exceeds the 95% (90%) confidence level, indicating that this model has a more faithful representation for the SST-forced HWs.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hejing Wang ◽  
Dehai Luo

<p>In our study, we aim to examine what factors lead to the summer heat waves over Eurasia and their variability. The analysis reveals that the summer heat waves over Eurasia show two kinds of spatial patterns: midlatitude and high latitude types. The mid-latitude heat wave mainly occurred over west Russia in the west of 55°E and in the south of 60°N, whereas the high-latitude type mainly occurred over west Russia in the east of 55°E and in the north of 55°N. We further analyzed the relationship of the two kinds of heat waves with atmospheric circulation patterns in the Atlantic-Eurasian sector and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic and Arctic. The results show that the cold or warm SST anomalies over Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) can significantly influence the latitude and longitude of Russian heat waves, while the heat waves are also related to the latitude of positive SST anomalies over North Atlantic.</p><p>A mid-latitude wave train propagating into Eurasia and mid-latitude Russian heat waves, which are related to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are seen when there are strong SST warming in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes south of 60°N and SST cooling over BKS. In contrast, a high-latitude Russian heat wave can occur over west Russia when there are positive SST anomalies over Baffin Bay, Davis Strait and Labrador Sea north of 60°N and BKS, while this high-latitude wave train is related to the decay of Greenland blocking or the negative NAO phase via high-latitude wave train propagation.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 3949-3971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Yiqing Xiao ◽  
Yina Diao ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Christian L. E. Franzke ◽  
...  

Abstract In Part I of this study, the Ural blocking (UB)-induced amplification role of winter warm Arctic–cold Eurasian (WACE) anomalies has been examined. It was found that the long-lived UB together with the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) significantly contributes to the amplification of the WACE pattern. The present study examines how the UB variability affects quasi-biweekly WACE (QB-WACE) anomalies and depends on the NAO+ and North Atlantic conditions by classifying the UB based on a case study of a cold event that occurred over southern China in January 2008. A composite analysis during 1979–2013 shows that the QB-WACE anomalies associated with the UB that often occur with the NAO+ are strong and influenced by the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) and zonal wind strengths over Eurasia. For NAO+-related UB, the QB-WACE anomaly depends strongly on the location of UB, and the UB anomalies lag the NAO+ by approximately 4–7 days. The strength of the NAJ determines whether the combined NAO+ and UB anomalies exhibit a negative East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR−) pattern, while the region of weak zonal winds over Eurasia and the zonal extent of the NAJ dominate the location of UB. For southward-, eastward-, and westward-displaced UBs associated with a strong NAJ, the NAO+ favors the UB with a southward-displaced QB-WACE anomaly through wave train propagation like an EA/WR− pattern. Eastward- and southward-displaced UB anomalies induce similarly displaced cold anomalies with intrusion into southern China. However, for a northward-displaced UB, this happens without pronounced EA/WR− patterns because of a weak NAJ and is accompanied by a northward-displaced QB-WACE anomaly.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard F. Borchert ◽  
Alexander J. Winkler

<p>Vegetation in the northern high latitudes shows a characteristic pattern of persistent changes as documented by multi-decadal satellite observations. The prevailing explanation that these mainly increasing trends (greening) are a consequence of external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing, i.e., due to the ubiquitous effect of CO2-induced fertilization and/or warming of temperature-limited ecosystems, however does not explain why some areas also show decreasing trends of vegetation cover (browning). We propose here to consider the dominant mode of multi-decadal internal climate variability in the north Atlantic region, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), as the missing link in the explanation of greening and browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes. Such a link would also imply potential for decadal predictions of ecosystem changes in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>An analysis of observational and reanalysis data sets for the period 1979-2019 shows that locations characterized by greening trends largely coincide with warming summer temperature and increasing precipitation. Wherever either cooling or decreasing precipitation occurs, browning trends are observed over this period. These precipitation and temperature patterns are significantly correlated with a North Atlantic sea surface temperature index that represents the AMV signal, indicating its role in modulating greening/browning trend patterns in the northern high latitudes.</p><p>Using two large ensembles of coupled Earth system model simulations (100 members of MPI-ESM-LR Grand Ensemble and 32 members of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Large Ensemble), we separate the greening/browning pattern caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing from that caused by internal climate variability associated with the AMV. These sets of model simulations enable a clean separation of the externally forced signal from internal variability. While the greening and browning patterns in the simulations do not agree with observations in terms of magnitude and location, we find consistent internally generated greening/browning patterns in both models caused by changes in temperature and precipitation linked to the AMV signal. These greening/browning trend patterns are of the same magnitude as those caused by the external forcing alone. Our work therefore shows that internally-generated changes of vegetation in the northern lands, driven by AMV, are potentially as large as those caused by external CO<sub>2</sub> forcing. We thus argue that the observed pattern of greening/browning in the northern high latitudes could originate from the combined effect of rising CO<sub>2</sub> as well as the AMV.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritika Kapoor ◽  
Carmen Alvarez-Castro ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Stefano Materia ◽  
Silvio Gualdi

<p>Rising global temperatures are a potential cause for increase of extreme climate events, such as heat waves, both in severity and frequency. Under an increasing extreme event scenario, the world population of mid- and low-latitude countries is more vulnerable to heat related mortality and morbidity.</p><p>In India, the events occurred in recent years have made this vulnerability clear, since the numbers of heat-related deaths are on a rise, and heat waves can impact various sectors including health, agriculture, ecosystems and the national economy.</p><p>Preliminary results show the prevalence of heat events in seven different regions of India during the pre-monsoon (March, April, May) and transitional (May, June, July) months. We consider daily maximum temperatures (Tmax) and the NOAA’s Heat Index (HI), a combination of temperature and relative humidity that gives an insight into the discomfort because of increment in humidity.</p><p>We look into various drivers behind the heat events in the seven different clusters, in particular ENSO and the North Atlantic Regimes that have been linked to the generation of heat waves in different parts of India. The preliminary results indicate Nino 3.4 SST anomalies show positive correlation with Tmax anomalies only in the western coast during pre-monsoon season, while in the transitional months positive correlation extends to central and east India. The Tmax composite anomalies for the cold, warm and neutral phases of ENSO show positive anomalies for only warm years and negative anomalies for the cool and neutral years. Heat Index shows similar spatial patterns for correlation analysis and composite anomaly analysis. The Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) composite associated with heat waves (days exceeding 95th percentile=>3 days) show a persistent ridge over the North Atlantic region.</p><p> </p>


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6491-6511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugh S. Baker ◽  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Chris E. Forest ◽  
Myles R. Allen

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and eddy-driven jet contain a forced component arising from sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Due to large amounts of internal variability, it is not trivial to determine where and to what extent SSTs force the NAO and jet. A linear statistical–dynamic method is employed with a large climate ensemble to compute the sensitivities of the winter and summer NAO and jet speed and latitude to the SSTs. Key regions of sensitivity are identified in the Indian and Pacific basins, and the North Atlantic tripole. Using the sensitivity maps and a long observational SST dataset, skillful reconstructions of the NAO and jet time series are made. The ability to skillfully forecast both the winter and summer NAO using only SST anomalies is also demonstrated. The linear approach used here allows precise attribution of model forecast signals to SSTs in particular regions. Skill comes from the Atlantic and Pacific basins on short lead times, while the Indian Ocean SSTs may contribute to the longer-term NAO trend. However, despite the region of high sensitivity in the Indian Ocean, SSTs here do not provide significant skill on interannual time scales, which highlights the limitations of the imposed SST approach. Given the impact of the NAO and jet on Northern Hemisphere weather and climate, these results provide useful information that could be used for improved attribution and forecasting.


2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. 1387-1414
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Yao Ge ◽  
Wenqi Zhang ◽  
Aiguo Dai

Abstract In this paper, reanalysis data are first analyzed to reveal that the individual negative (positive)-phase Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) or PNA− (PNA+) has a lifetime of 10–20 days, is characterized by strong (weak) westerly jet stream meanders, and exhibits clear wave train structures, whereas the PNA− with rapid retrogression tends to have longer lifetime and larger amplitude than the PNA+ with slow retrogression. In contrast, the wave train structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is less distinct, and the positive (negative)-phase NAO shows eastward (westward) movement around a higher latitude than the PNA. Moreover, it is found that the PNA wave train occurs under a larger background meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) over the North Pacific than that over the North Atlantic for the NAO. A unified nonlinear multiscale interaction (UNMI) model is then developed to explain why the PNA as a nonlinear wave packet has such characteristics and its large difference from the NAO. The model results reveal that the larger background PVy for the PNA (due to its location at lower latitudes) leads to its larger energy dispersion and weaker nonlinearity than the NAO, thus explaining why the PNA (NAO) is largely a linear (nonlinear) process with a strong (weak) wave train structure, though it is regarded as a nonlinear initial-value problem. The smaller PVy for the PNA− than for the PNA+ leads to lower energy dispersion and stronger nonlinearity for PNA−, which allows it to maintain larger amplitude and have a longer lifetime than the PNA+. Thus, the difference in the background PVy is responsible for the asymmetry between the two phases of PNA and the difference between the PNA and NAO.


2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 856-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lixin Wu ◽  
Feng He ◽  
Zhengyu Liu ◽  
Chun Li

Abstract In this paper, the atmospheric teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic SST variability are investigated in a series of coupled ocean–atmosphere modeling experiments. It is found that the tropical Atlantic climate not only displays an apparent interhemispheric link, but also significantly influences the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In spring, the tropical Atlantic SST exhibits an interhemispheric seesaw controlled by the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback that subsequently decays through the mediation of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ. Over the North Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic SST can force a significant coupled NAO–dipole SST response in spring that changes to a coupled wave train–horseshoe SST response in the following summer and fall, and a recurrence of the NAO in the next winter. The seasonal changes of the atmospheric response as well as the recurrence of the next winter’s NAO are driven predominantly by the tropical Atlantic SST itself, while the resulting extratropical SST can enhance the atmospheric response, but it is not a necessary bridge of the winter-to-winter NAO persistency. Over the Pacific, the model demonstrates that the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST can also organize an interhemispheric SST seesaw in spring in the eastern equatorial Pacific that subsequently evolves into an ENSO-like pattern in the tropical Pacific through mediation of the ITCZ and equatorial coupled ocean–atmosphere feedback.


2001 ◽  
Vol 79 (12) ◽  
pp. 1465-1476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han-Gu Choi ◽  
Myung-Sook Kim ◽  
Michael D Guiry ◽  
Gary W Saunders

The aim of this study was to reassess monophyly of the genus Polysiphonia and determine the phylogenetic affinities of its component lineages among related red algae belonging to the Rhodomelaceae. Our "total evidence" approach, combining 28 anatomical characters and small-subunit ribosomal DNA sequence data for 25 ceramialean algae including 14 species of Polysiphonia sensu lato (including two species of the recently described genus Neosiphonia) and nine related Rhodomelaceae, indicates that Polysiphonia sensu lato consists of three strongly supported clades, Polysiphonia group, Neosiphonia group, and a "multipericentral" group, and a single taxon lineage consisting of Womersleyella setacea. The type species of the genus, Polysiphonia urceolata (= Polysiphonia stricta) from the north Atlantic, formed a distinct clade with Polysiphonia morrowii and Polysiphonia pacifica from the northwest and northeast Pacific, respectively. The Neosiphonia group included Neosiphonia japonica and Neosiphonia savatieri from the northwest Pacific, as originally proposed, Polysiphonia harveyi from the north Atlantic, which shares diagnostic features with this genus, and the anomalous Polysiphonia elongata and Polysiphonia virgata from the north Atlantic and South Africa, respectively. Boergeseniella and Vertebrata from the north Atlantic and Enelittosiphonia from the northwest Pacific associated solidly with the multipericentral Polysiphonia fucoides and Polysiphonia nigra from the north Atlantic. The implications for the taxonomy of Polysiphonia sensu lato and related genera within the Rhodomelaceae are discussed.Key words: Neosiphonia, nuclear small-subunit rDNA, phylogeny, Polysiphonia, Rhodomelaceae, Rhodophyta, systematics.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binhe Luo ◽  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Lixin Wu

<p>Winter surface air temperature (SAT) over North America exhibits pronounced variability on sub-seasonal-to-interdecadal timescales, but its causes are not fully understood. Here observational and reanalysis data from 1950-2017 are analyzed to investigate these causes. Detrended daily SAT data reveals a known warm-west/cold-east (WWCE) dipole over midlatitude North America and a cold-north/warm-south (CNWS) dipole over eastern North America. It is found that while the North Pacific blocking (PB) is important for the WWCE and CNWS dipoles, they also depend on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When a negative-phase NAO (NAO-) concurs with PB, the WWCE dipole is enhanced (compared with the PB alone case) and it also leads to a warm north/cold south dipole anomaly in eastern North America; but when PB occurs with a positive-phase NAO (NAO<sup>+</sup>), the WWCE dipole weakens and the CNWS dipole is enhanced. In particular, the WWCE dipole is favored by a combination of eastward-displaced PB and NAO<sup>-</sup> that form a negative Arctic Oscillation. Furthermore, a WWCE dipole can form over midlatitude North America when PB occurs together with southward-displaced NAO<sup>+</sup>.The PB events concurring with NAO<sup>-</sup> (NAO<sup>+</sup>) and SAT WWCE (CNWS) dipole are favored by the El Nio-like (La Nia-like) SST mode, though related to the North Atlantic warm-cold-warm (cold-warm-cold) SST tripole pattern. It is also found that the North Pacific mode tends to enhance the WWCE SAT dipole through increasing PB-NAO<sup>-</sup> events and producing the WWCE SAT dipole component related to the PB-NAO<sup>+</sup> events because the PB and NAO<sup>+</sup> form a more zonal wave train in this case.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (5) ◽  
pp. 954-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
João A. Santos

Abstract The development of a particular wintertime atmospheric circulation regime over the North Atlantic, comprising a northward shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and an associated strong and persistent ridge in the subtropics, is investigated. Several different methods of analysis are combined to describe the temporal evolution of the events and relate it to shifts in the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern. First, the authors identify a close relationship between northward shifts of the eddy-driven jet, the establishment and maintenance of strong and persistent ridges in the subtropics, and the occurrence of upper-tropospheric anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Iberia. Clear tropospheric precursors are evident prior to the development of the regime, suggesting a preconditioning of the Atlantic jet stream and an upstream influence via a large-scale Rossby wave train from the North Pacific. Transient (2–6 days) eddy forcing plays a dual role, contributing to both the initiation and then the maintenance of the circulation anomalies. During the regime there is enhanced occurrence of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which may be described as low-latitude blocking-like events over the southeastern North Atlantic. A strong ridge is already established at the time of wave-breaking onset, suggesting that the role of wave-breaking events is to amplify the circulation anomalies rather than to initiate them. Wave breaking also seems to enhance the persistence, since it is unlikely that a persistent ridge event occurs without being also accompanied by wave breaking.


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