scholarly journals Regional to Global Evolution of Impacts of Parameterized Mountain-Wave Drag in the Lower Stratosphere

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3093-3106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Kruse
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
Mountain Wave ◽  
Global Features ◽  
Mountain Ranges ◽  
The North ◽  
Global Evolution ◽  
And Diffusion

AbstractMountain ranges are regional features on Earth, as are the regions of mountain-wave drag (MWD) exerted by dissipating atmospheric gravity waves generated by flow over them. However, these regional drags have significant global- or zonal-mean impacts on Earth’s atmospheric general circulation (e.g., slowing of the polar night jet). The objective of this work is to understand the regional to global evolution of these impacts. The approach is to track the evolution of MWD-generated potential vorticity (PV) over the winter using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Within an ensemble of winter-long runs with and without MWD, lower-stratospheric PV is generated over mountains and advected downstream, generating large-scale PV banners. These PV banners are diffused but survive this diffusion and are reinforced over downstream mountain ranges, accumulating into zonal-mean or global features within WACCM. A simple 2D model representing sources, advection, and diffusion of “passive PV” recreates the salient features in the WACCM results, suggesting the winter-long evolution of MWD-generated PV can be crudely understood in terms of horizontal advection and diffusion within a global vortex. In the Northern Hemisphere, cyclonic, equatorward PV banners accumulate zonally into a single zonally symmetric positive PV anomaly. The anticyclonic, poleward PV banners also accumulate into a zonally symmetric feature, but then diffuse over the North Pole into a negative PV polar cap. In the Southern Hemisphere, the same processes are at work, though the different geographic configuration of mountain ranges leads to different patterns of impacts.

scholarly journals A high-resolution model of the 100 ka ice-age cycle

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 58-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tarasov ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Relaxation Times ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The North ◽  
The Last Glacial

Significant improvements to the representation of climate forcing and mass-balance response in a coupled two-dimensional global energy balance climate model (EBM) and vertically integrated ice-sheet model (ISM) have led to the prediction of an ice-volume chronology for the most recent ice-age cycle of the Northern Hemisphere that is close to that inferred from the geological record. Most significant is that full glacial termination is delivered by the model without the need for new physical ingredients. In addition, a relatively close match is achieved between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) model ice topography and that of the recently-described ICE-4G reconstruction. These results suggest that large-scale climate system reorganization is not required to explain the main variations of the North American (NA) ice sheets over the last glacial cycle. Lack of sea-ice and marine-ice dynamics in the model leaves the situation over the Eurasian (EA) sector much more uncertain.The incorporation of a gravitationally self-consistent description of the glacial isostatic adjustment process demonstrates that the NA and EA bedrock responses can be adequately represented by simpler damped-relaxation models with characteristic time-scales of 3–5ka and 5 ka, respectively. These relaxation times agree with those independently inferred on the basis of postglacial relative sea-level histories.

scholarly journals Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 3413-3440 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. P. Maurer ◽  
H. G. Hidalgo
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Daily Data

Abstract. Downscaling of climate model data is essential to most impact analysis. We compare two methods of statistical downscaling to produce continuous, gridded time series of precipitation and surface air temperature at a 1/8-degree (approximately 140 km² per grid cell) resolution over the western U.S. We use NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 1950–1999 as a surrogate General Circulation Model (GCM). The two methods included are constructed analogues (CA) and a bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD), both of which have been shown to be skillful in different settings, and BCSD has been used extensively in hydrologic impact analysis. Both methods use the coarse scale Reanalysis fields of precipitation and temperature as predictors of the corresponding fine scale fields. CA downscales daily large-scale data directly and BCSD downscales monthly data, with a random resampling technique to generate daily values. The methods produce comparable skill in producing downscaled, gridded fields of precipitation and temperatures at a monthly and seasonal level. For daily precipitation, both methods exhibit some skill in reproducing both observed wet and dry extremes and the difference between the methods is not significant, reflecting the general low skill in daily precipitation variability in the reanalysis data. For low temperature extremes, the CA method produces greater downscaling skill than BCSD for fall and winter seasons. For high temperature extremes, CA demonstrates higher skill than BCSD in summer. We find that the choice of most appropriate downscaling technique depends on the variables, seasons, and regions of interest, on the availability of daily data, and whether the day to day correspondence of weather from the GCM needs to be reproduced for some applications. The ability to produce skillful downscaled daily data depends primarily on the ability of the climate model to show daily skill.

scholarly journals A high-resolution model of the 100 ka ice-age cycle

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 58-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tarasov ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Relaxation Times ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The North ◽  
The Last Glacial

Significant improvements to the representation of climate forcing and mass-balance response in a coupled two-dimensional global energy balance climate model (EBM) and vertically integrated ice-sheet model (ISM) have led to the prediction of an ice-volume chronology for the most recent ice-age cycle of the Northern Hemisphere that is close to that inferred from the geological record. Most significant is that full glacial termination is delivered by the model without the need for new physical ingredients. In addition, a relatively close match is achieved between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) model ice topography and that of the recently-described ICE-4G reconstruction. These results suggest that large-scale climate system reorganization is not required to explain the main variations of the North American (NA) ice sheets over the last glacial cycle. Lack of sea-ice and marine-ice dynamics in the model leaves the situation over the Eurasian (EA) sector much more uncertain.The incorporation of a gravitationally self-consistent description of the glacial isostatic adjustment process demonstrates that the NA and EA bedrock responses can be adequately represented by simpler damped-relaxation models with characteristic time-scales of 3–5ka and 5 ka, respectively. These relaxation times agree with those independently inferred on the basis of postglacial relative sea-level histories.

scholarly journals Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 3809-3840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Orbe ◽  
David A. Plummer ◽  
Darryn W. Waugh ◽  
Huang Yang ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Cycle Amplitude ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Dynamics Simulations

Abstract. We provide an overview of the REF-C1SD specified-dynamics experiment that was conducted as part of phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The REF-C1SD experiment, which consisted of mainly nudged general circulation models (GCMs) constrained with (re)analysis fields, was designed to examine the influence of the large-scale circulation on past trends in atmospheric composition. The REF-C1SD simulations were produced across various model frameworks and are evaluated in terms of how well they represent different measures of the dynamical and transport circulations. In the troposphere there are large (∼40 %) differences in the climatological mean distributions, seasonal cycle amplitude, and trends of the meridional and vertical winds. In the stratosphere there are similarly large (∼50 %) differences in the magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle amplitude of the transformed Eulerian mean circulation and among various chemical and idealized tracers. At the same time, interannual variations in nearly all quantities are very well represented, compared to the underlying reanalyses. We show that the differences in magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle are not related to the use of different reanalysis products; rather, we show they are associated with how the simulations were implemented, by which we refer both to how the large-scale flow was prescribed and to biases in the underlying free-running models. In most cases these differences are shown to be as large or even larger than the differences exhibited by free-running simulations produced using the exact same models, which are also shown to be more dynamically consistent. Overall, our results suggest that care must be taken when using specified-dynamics simulations to examine the influence of large-scale dynamics on composition.

Linking marine fog variability in Atlantic Canada to changes in large-scale atmospheric and marine features

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Duplessis ◽  
Minghong Zhang ◽  
William Perrie ◽  
George A Isaac ◽  
Rachel Y W Chang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atlantic Canada ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The North ◽  
Marine Traffic ◽  
Highly Correlated

<p>Marine and coastal fog forms mainly from the cooling of warm and moist air advected over a colder sea surface. Atlantic Canada is one of the foggiest regions of the world due to the strong temperature contrast between the two oceanic currents in the vicinity. Recurring periods of low visibility notably disrupt off-shore operations and marine traffic, but also land and air transportation. On longer time-scales, marine fog variability also has a significant impact on the global radiative budget. Clouds, including fog, are the greatest source of uncertainty in the current climate projections because of their complex feedback mechanisms. Meteorological records indicate a significant negative trend in the occurrence of foggy conditions over the past six decades at most airports in Atlantic Canada, with large internal variability, including interannual and interdecadal variations. Using the airport observations, reanalysis data and climate model outputs, we investigated the various variabilities on the trend, at interannual and interdecadal scales, and attempted to address what caused these changes in fog frequency. Our results show that the strength and position of the North Atlantic Subtropical High as well as the sea-surface temperature of the cold and warm waters near Atlantic Canada were highly correlated with fog occurrence. We applied the derived fog indices on climate model outputs and projected the fog trends and variability in the different future climate scenarios. The results from this study will be compared with those obtained from other methods and the implications will be discussed.</p>

Transport into the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere over North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyue Wang ◽  
William Randel ◽  
Yutian Wu
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Diffusion ◽  
Dynamical Mechanism ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The North ◽  
Budget Analysis

<p>We study fast transport of air from the surface into the North American upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS) during northern summer with a large ensemble of Boundary Impulse Response (BIR) idealized tracers. Specifically, we implement 90 pulse tracers at the Northern Hemisphere surface and release them during July and August months in the fully coupled Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) version 5. We focus on the most efficient transport cases above southern U.S. (10°-40°N, 60°-140°W) at 100 hPa with modal ages fall below 10th percentile. We examine transport-related terms, including resolved dynamics computed inside model transport scheme and parameterized processes (vertical diffusion and convective parameterization), to pin down the dominant dynamical mechanism. Our results show during the fastest transport, air parcels enter ULTS directly above the Gulf of Mexico. The budget analysis indicates that strong deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico fast uplift the tracer into 200 hPa, and then is vertically advected into 100 hPa and circulated by the enhanced large-scale anticyclone. </p>

Do Statistical Pattern Corrections Improve Seasonal Climate Predictions in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Models?

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (20) ◽  
pp. 8335-8355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony G. Barnston ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Anomaly Correlation ◽  
The North ◽  
The Individual ◽  
North American Multimodel Ensemble

Abstract Canonical correlation analysis (CCA)-based statistical corrections are applied to seasonal mean precipitation and temperature hindcasts of the individual models from the North American Multimodel Ensemble project to correct biases in the positions and amplitudes of the predicted large-scale anomaly patterns. Corrections are applied in 15 individual regions and then merged into globally corrected forecasts. The CCA correction dramatically improves the RMS error skill score, demonstrating that model predictions contain correctable systematic biases in mean and amplitude. However, the corrections do not materially improve the anomaly correlation skills of the individual models for most regions, seasons, and lead times, with the exception of October–December precipitation in Indonesia and eastern Africa. Models with lower uncorrected correlation skill tend to benefit more from the correction, suggesting that their lower skills may be due to correctable systematic errors. Unexpectedly, corrections for the globe as a single region tend to improve the anomaly correlation at least as much as the merged corrections to the individual regions for temperature, and more so for precipitation, perhaps due to better noise filtering. The lack of overall improvement in correlation may imply relatively mild errors in large-scale anomaly patterns. Alternatively, there may be such errors, but the period of record is too short to identify them effectively but long enough to find local biases in mean and amplitude. Therefore, statistical correction methods treating individual locations (e.g., multiple regression or principal component regression) may be recommended for today’s coupled climate model forecasts. The findings highlight that the performance of statistical postprocessing can be grossly overestimated without thorough cross validation or evaluation on independent data.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6727-6749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Oreste Reale ◽  
Andrea M. Molod ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic) led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that the predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to subtropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO.

scholarly journals Importance of Resolving Kuroshio Front and Eddy Influence in Simulating the North Pacific Storm Track

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1861-1880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Ma ◽  
Ping Chang ◽  
R. Saravanan ◽  
Raffaele Montuoro ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Kuroshio Extension ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Local and remote atmospheric responses to mesoscale SST anomalies associated with the oceanic front and eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region (KER) are studied using high- (27 km) and low-resolution (162 km) regional climate model simulations in the North Pacific. In the high-resolution simulations, removal of mesoscale SST anomalies in the KER leads to not only a local reduction in cyclogenesis but also a remote large-scale equivalent barotropic response with a southward shift of the downstream storm track and jet stream in the eastern North Pacific. In the low-resolution simulations, no such significant remote response is found when mesoscale SST anomalies are removed. The difference between the high- and low-resolution model simulated atmospheric responses is attributed to the effect of mesoscale SST variability on cyclogenesis through moist baroclinic instability. It is only when the model has sufficient resolution to resolve small-scale diabatic heating that the full effect of mesoscale SST forcing on the storm track can be correctly simulated.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

2010 ◽  
Vol 368 (1931) ◽  
pp. 5117-5135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debbie Hemming ◽  
Carlo Buontempo ◽  
Eleanor Burke ◽  
Mat Collins ◽  
Neil Kaye
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Distribution ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Off

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961–1990 and 2021–2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between −5 and −25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

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