scholarly journals Development, Amplification, and Decay of Atlantic/European Summer Weather Patterns Linked to Spring North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (14) ◽  
pp. 5939-5951
Author(s):  
Albert Ossó ◽  
Rowan Sutton ◽  
Len Shaffrey ◽  
Buwen Dong
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Specific Pattern ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractA recent study identified a relationship between North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in spring and a specific pattern of atmospheric circulation in the following summer: the summer east Atlantic (SEA) pattern. It was shown that the SEA pattern is closely associated with meridional shifts in the eddy-driven jet in response to anomalous SST gradients. In this study, the physical mechanisms underlying this relationship are investigated further. It is shown that the predictable SEA pattern anomalies appear in June–July and undergo substantial amplification between July and August before decaying in September. The associated SST anomalies also grow in magnitude and spatial extent from June to August. The question of why the predictable atmospheric anomalies should occur in summer is addressed, and three factors are identified. The first is the climatological position of the storm track, which migrates poleward from spring to summer. The second is that the magnitude of interannual SST variability underlying the storm track peaks in summer, both in absolute terms, and relative to the underlying mean SST gradient. The third factor is the most interesting. We identify a positive coupled ocean–atmosphere feedback, which operates in summer and leads to the amplification of both SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies. The extent to which the identified processes are captured in the HadGEM3-GC2 climate model is also assessed. The model is able to capture the relationship between spring North Atlantic SSTs and subsequent ocean–atmosphere conditions in early summer, but the relationship is too weak. The results suggest that the real world might be more predictable than is inferred from the models.

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: implications for future climate

2008 ◽  
Vol 367 (1886) ◽  
pp. 69-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry J Dowsett ◽  
Mark A Chandler ◽  
Marci M Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO 2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

scholarly journals Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

2017 ◽  
Vol 115 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Ossó ◽  
Rowan Sutton ◽  
Len Shaffrey ◽  
Buwen Dong
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Specific Pattern ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dynamical Model ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Wide Range

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

The Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Biases on North American Precipitation in a High-Resolution Climate Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2427-2447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathaniel C. Johnson ◽  
Lakshmi Krishnamurthy ◽  
Andrew T. Wittenberg ◽  
Baoqiang Xiang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North American ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Western North America ◽  
The North

AbstractPositive precipitation biases over western North America have remained a pervasive problem in the current generation of coupled global climate models. These biases are substantially reduced, however, in a version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) coupled climate model with systematic sea surface temperature (SST) biases artificially corrected through flux adjustment. This study examines how the SST biases in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans contribute to the North American precipitation biases. Experiments with the FLOR model in which SST biases are removed in the Atlantic and Pacific are carried out to determine the contribution of SST errors in each basin to precipitation statistics over North America. Tropical and North Pacific SST biases have a strong impact on northern North American precipitation, while tropical Atlantic SST biases have a dominant impact on precipitation biases in southern North America, including the western United States. Most notably, negative SST biases in the tropical Atlantic in boreal winter induce an anomalously strong Aleutian low and a southward bias in the North Pacific storm track. In boreal summer, the negative SST biases induce a strengthened North Atlantic subtropical high and Great Plains low-level jet. Each of these impacts contributes to positive annual mean precipitation biases over western North America. Both North Pacific and North Atlantic SST biases induce SST biases in remote basins through dynamical pathways, so a complete attribution of the effects of SST biases on precipitation must account for both the local and remote impacts.

A Global Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model. Part I. The Atmospheric Circulation

1975 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syukuro Manabe ◽  
Kirk Bryan ◽  
Michael J. Spelman
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere

scholarly journals Investigating the impact of Lake Agassiz drainage routes on the 8.2 ka cold event with a climate model

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 471-480 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.-X. Li ◽  
H. Renssen ◽  
A. P. Wiersma ◽  
T. E. Törnqvist
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The 8.2 ka event is the most prominent abrupt climate change in the Holocene and is often believed to result from catastrophic drainage of proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway (LAO) that routed through the Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea into the North Atlantic Ocean, and perturbed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). One key assumption of this triggering mechanism is that the LAO freshwater drainage was dispersed over the Labrador Sea. Recent data, however, show no evidence of lowered δ18O values, indicative of low salinity, from the open Labrador Sea around 8.2 ka. Instead, negative δ18O anomalies are found close to the east coast of North America, extending as far south as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, suggesting that the freshwater drainage may have been confined to a long stretch of continental shelf before fully mixing with North Atlantic Ocean water. Here we conduct a sensitivity study that examines the effects of a southerly drainage route on the 8.2 ka event with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE model. Hosing experiments of four routing scenarios, where freshwater was introduced to the Labrador Sea in the northerly route and to three different locations along the southerly route, were performed to investigate the routing effects on model responses. The modeling results show that a southerly drainage route is possible but generally yields reduced climatic consequences in comparison to those of a northerly route. This finding implies that more freshwater would be required for a southerly route than for a northerly route to produce the same climate anomaly. The implicated large amount of LAO drainage for a southerly routing scenario is in line with a recent geophysical modelling study of gravitational effects on sea-level change associated with the 8.2 ka event, which suggests that the volume of drainage might be larger than previously estimated.

Global Monsoon Responses to Decadal Sea Surface Temperature Variations during the Twentieth Century: Evidence from AGCM Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7675-7695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Jiang ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Multidecadal variations in the global land monsoon were observed during the twentieth century, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955 that was followed by a decreasing trend up to 1990, but the mechanisms governing the above changes remain inconclusive. Based on the outputs of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST) covering the twentieth century, supplemented with AGCM simulations forced by idealized SST anomalies representing different conditions of the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific, evidence shows that the observed changes can be partly reproduced, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) domain, demonstrating the modulation of decadal SST changes on the long-term variations in monsoon precipitation. Moisture budget analysis is performed to understand the interdecadal changes in monsoon precipitation, and the dynamic term associated with atmospheric circulation changes is found to be prominent, while the contribution of the thermodynamic term associated with humidity changes can lead to coincident wetting over the NHSM domain. The increase (decrease) in NHSM land precipitation during 1901–55 (1956–90) is associated with the strengthening (weakening) of NHSM circulation and Walker circulation. The multidecadal scale changes in atmospheric circulation are driven by SST anomalies over the North Atlantic and the Pacific. A warmer North Atlantic together with a colder eastern tropical Pacific and a warmer western subtropical Pacific can lead to a strengthened meridional gradient in mid-to-upper-tropospheric thickness and strengthened trade winds, which transport more water vapor into monsoon regions, leading to an increase in monsoon precipitation.

scholarly journals Response of a Global Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Sea Ice Climate Model to an Imposed North Atlantic High-Latitude Freshening

1997 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 929-948 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Jozef Syktus ◽  
Hal B. Gordon ◽  
Siobhan O’Farrell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere
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