The Role of Horizontal Temperature Advection on Arctic Amplification

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-54
Author(s):  
Joseph P. Clark ◽  
Vivek Shenoy ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Michael Goss
Keyword(s):  
Chukchi Sea ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Temperature Advection ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas

AbstractThe wintertime (December – February) 1990 - 2016 Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) trend is examined using self-organizing maps (SOMs). The high dimensional SAT dataset is reduced into nine representative SOM patterns, with each pattern exhibiting a decorrelation time scale about 10 days and having about 85% of its variance coming from intraseasonal timescales. The trend in the frequency of occurrence of each SOM pattern is used to estimate the interdecadal Arctic winter warming trend associated with the SOM patterns. It is found that trends in the SOM patterns explain about one-half of the SAT trend in the Barents and Kara Seas, one-third of the SAT trend around Baffin Bay and two-thirds of the SAT trend in the Chukchi Sea. A composite calculation of each term in the thermodynamic energy equation for each SOM pattern shows that the SAT anomalies grow primarily through the advection of the climatological temperature by the anomalous wind. This implies that a substantial fraction of Arctic amplification is due to horizontal temperature advection that is driven by changes in the atmospheric circulation. An analysis of the surface energy budget indicates that the skin temperature anomalies as well as the trend, although very similar to that of the SAT, are produced primarily by downward longwave radiation.

scholarly journals Mechanism of Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Evolution and Arctic Amplification

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-Yul Kim ◽  
Benjamin D. Hamlington ◽  
Hanna Na ◽  
Jinju Kim
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract. Sea ice melting is proposed as a primary reason for the Artic amplification, although physical mechanism of the Arctic amplification and its connection with sea ice melting is still in debate. In the present study, monthly ERA-interim reanalysis data are analyzed via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis to understand the seasonal mechanism of sea ice melting in the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic amplification. While sea ice melting is widespread over much of the perimeter of the Arctic Ocean in summer, sea ice remains to be thin in winter only in the Barents-Kara Seas. Excessive turbulent heat flux through the sea surface exposed to air due to sea ice melting warms the atmospheric column. Warmer air increases the downward longwave radiation and subsequently surface air temperature, which facilitates sea surface remains to be ice free. A 1 % reduction in sea ice concentration in winter leads to ~ 0.76 W m−2 increase in upward heat flux, ~ 0.07 K increase in 850 hPa air temperature, ~ 0.97 W m−2 increase in downward longwave radiation, and ~ 0.26 K increase in surface air temperature. This positive feedback mechanism is not clearly observed in the Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, since sea ice refreezes in late fall (November) before excessive turbulent heat flux is available for warming the atmospheric column in winter. A detailed seasonal heat budget is presented in order to understand specific differences between the Barents-Kara Seas and Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas.

scholarly journals On the Suitability of Current Atmospheric Reanalyses for Regional Warming Studies over China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunlüe Zhou ◽  
Yanyi He ◽  
Kaicun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
Mean Differences

Abstract. Reanalyses have been widely used because they add value to the routine observations by generating physically/dynamically consistent and spatiotemporally complete atmospheric fields. Existing studies have extensively discussed their temporal suitability in global change study. This study moves forward on their suitability for regional climate change study where land–atmosphere interactions play a more important role. Here, surface air temperature (Ta) from 12 current reanalysis products were investigated, focusing on spatial patterns of Ta trends, using homogenized Ta from 1979 to 2010 at ~ 2200 meteorological stations in China. Results show that ~ 80 % of the Ta mean differences between reanalyses and in-situ observations are attributed to station and model-grid elevation differences, denoting good skill in Ta climatology and rebutting the previously reported Ta biases. However, the Ta trend biases in reanalyses display spatial divergence (standard deviation = 0.15–0.30 °C/decade at 1° × 1° grids). The simulated Ta trend biases correlate well with those of precipitation frequency, surface incident solar radiation (Rs), and atmospheric downward longwave radiation (Ld) among the reanalyses (r = −0.83, 0.80 and 0.77, p 

Causes of the 1985-2014 Surface Warming over the Sanjiangyuan Region of the Tibetan Plateau from the Perspective of Energy Transport

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinglin Tian ◽  
Deyu Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Heat Source ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Heat Sources ◽  
The South ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

<p>The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the “World Roof”, has significant influences on hydrological and atmospheric circulation at both regional and global scale. As the Sanjiangyuan Region (SJY) supplies water resources to the adjacent river basin and the TP could exert strong thermal forcing on the atmosphere over Asian monsoon region, adequate understand of the climate change over this region and its underlying mechanisms is of great importance. Based on gridded data provided by China Meteorological Administration (CMA), a continuous warming trend higher than that over elsewhere in China has been observed over the TP during 1985-2014, especially in the cold season (0.69 K/decade) and over the SJY (1.0 K/decade). On the basis of ERA interim reanalysis datasets, this paper analyzed the factors facilitating this warming trend in the SJY from the perspective of energy transport. At first, the local processes involved were investigated by calculating partial temperature changes using the surface energy budget equation. Then the horizontal convection of heat was quantified by summing the heat flux across the boundaries of the SJY. Finally, a Lagrangian heat source diagnostic method was developed to identify the major heat source. As the results indicating, among all the local heat sources, the enhanced downward longwave radiation reflected to surface air and the increasing upward longwave radiation emitted by warmer land surface were responsible for the pronounced surface air warming. However, the changes in surface sensible and latent heat fluxes had a reduced warming effect on the surface air. As for the non-local horizontal heat sources, rising horizontal heat flux from the south, west and east boundaries into the SJY contributed to the higher surface temperature of the SJY. In winter season, the heat flows stemmed from the South Himalayan vein into the SJY played a dominant role. Moreover, the higher the temperature over the SJY was, the more inclined this heat source was to Nepal.</p>

scholarly journals Antarctic and Southern Ocean Surface Temperatures in CMIP5 Models in the Context of the Surface Energy Budget*

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1689-1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Schneider ◽  
David B. Reusch
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Ensemble Mean

Abstract This study examines the biases, intermodel spread, and intermodel range of surface air temperature (SAT) across the Antarctic ice sheet and Southern Ocean in 26 structurally different climate models. Over the ocean (40°–60°S), an ensemble-mean warm bias peaks in late austral summer concurrently with the peak in the intermodel range of SAT. This warm bias lags a spring–summer positive bias in net surface radiation due to weak shortwave cloud forcing and is gradually reduced during autumn and winter. For the ice sheet, inconsistencies among reanalyses and observational datasets give low confidence in the ensemble-mean bias of SAT, but a small summer warm bias is suggested in comparison with nonreanalysis SAT data. The ensemble mean hides a large intermodel range of SAT, which peaks during the summer insolation maximum. In summer on the ice sheet, the SAT intermodel spread is largely associated with the surface albedo. In winter, models universally exhibit a too-strong deficit in net surface radiation related to the downward longwave radiation, implying that the lower atmosphere is too stable. This radiation deficit is balanced by the transfer of sensible heat toward the surface (which largely explains the intermodel spread in SAT) and by a subsurface heat flux. The winter bias in downward longwave radiation is due to the longwave cloud radiative effect, which the ensemble mean underestimates by a factor of 2. The implications of these results for improving climate simulations over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are discussed.

scholarly journals Understanding the Mechanism of Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Loss

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwang-Yul Kim ◽  
Jinju Kim ◽  
Saerim Yeo ◽  
Hanna Na ◽  
Benjamin D. Hamlington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
Feedback Process ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract. Sea ice reduction is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain the accelerated loss of polar sea ice, which remains an open question. In the present study, the detailed physical mechanism of sea ice reduction in winter is identified using the daily ERA interim reanalysis data. Downward longwave radiation is an essential element for sea ice reduction, but can only be sustained by excessive upward heat flux from the sea surface exposed to air in the region of sea ice loss. The increased turbulent heat flux is used to increase air temperature and specific humidity in the lower troposphere, which in turn increases downward longwave radiation. This feedback process is clearly observed in the Barents and Kara Seas in the reanalysis data. A quantitative assessment reveals that this feedback process is amplifying at the rate of ~ 8.9 % every year during 1979–2016. Based on this estimate, sea ice will completely disappear in the Barents and Kara Seas by around 2025. Availability of excessive heat flux is necessary for the maintenance of this feedback process; a similar mechanism of sea ice loss is expected to take place over the sea-ice covered polar region when sea ice is not fully recovered in winter.

scholarly journals A revisit of parametrization of summer downward longwave radiation over the Tibetan Plateau from high temporal resolution measurements

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengqi Liu ◽  
Xiangdong Zheng ◽  
Jinqiang Zhang ◽  
Xiangao Xia
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is one of hot spots in the climate research due to its unique geographical location, high altitude, highly sensitive to climate change as well potential effects on climate in East Asia. Downward longwave radiation (DLR), as a key component in the surface energy budget, is of practical implications for many research fields. Several attempts have been made to measure hourly or daily DLR and then model it over the TP. This study uses 1-minute radiation and meteorological measurements at three stations over the TP to parameterize DLR during summer months. Three independent methods are used to discriminate clear-sky observations by making maximal use of collocated measurements of downward shortwave and longwave radiation as well as Lidar backscatter measurements with high temporal resolution. This guarantees a reliable separation of clear-sky and cloudy samples that favors for proper parameterizations of DLR under these two contrast conditions. Clear-sky and cloudy DLR models with original parameters are firstly assessed. These models are then locally calibrated based on 1-minute observations. DLR estimation is notably improved since specific conditions over the TP are accounted for by local calibration, which is indicated by smaller root mean square error (RMSE) and larger coefficient of determination (R2). The best local parametrization can estimate clear-sky DLR with RMSE of 3.8 W⸱m-2. Overestimation of clear-sky DLR by previous study is evident, likely due to potential residue cloud contamination on the clear-sky samples. Cloud base height under overcast conditions is shown to be intimately related to cloudy DLR parameterization, which is considered by this study in the locally calibrated parameterization over the TP for the first time.

scholarly journals Attributing Observed SST Trends and Subcontinental Land Warming to Anthropogenic Forcing during 1979–2005

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 3152-3170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duo Chan ◽  
Qigang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Indirect Response ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
And Control

Abstract Attribution studies conclude that it is extremely likely that most observed global- and continental-scale surface air temperature (SAT) warming since 1950 was caused by anthropogenic forcing, but some difficulties and uncertainties remain in attribution of warming in subcontinental regions and at time scales less than 50 years. This study uses global observations and CMIP5 simulations with various forcings, covering 1979–2005, and control runs to develop confidence intervals, to attribute regional trends of SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) to natural and anthropogenic causes. Observations show warming, significantly different from natural variations at the 95% confidence level, over one-third of all grid boxes, and averaged over 15 of 21 subcontinental regions and 6 of 10 ocean basins. Coupled simulations forced with all forcing factors, or greenhouse gases only, reproduce observed SST and SAT patterns. Uncoupled AMIP-like atmosphere-only (prescribed SST and atmospheric radiative forcing) simulations reproduce observed SAT patterns. All of these simulations produce consistent net downward longwave radiation patterns. Simulations with natural-only forcing simulate weak warming. Anthropogenic forcing effects are clearly detectable at the 5% significance level at global, hemispheric, and tropical scales and in nine ocean basins and 15 of 21 subcontinental land regions. Attribution results indicate that ocean warming during 1979–2005 for the globe and individual basins is well represented in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble mean historical simulations. While land warming may occur as an indirect response to oceanic warming, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to be the ultimate source of land warming in most subcontinental regions during 1979–2005.

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere Winter Air Temperature Patterns and Their Associated Atmospheric and Ocean Conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (14) ◽  
pp. 6165-6186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiechun Deng ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Dorina Chyi
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Ocean Conditions ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

AbstractThe Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced winter Arctic warming and continental cooling in recent decades, but the dominant patterns in winter surface air temperature (SAT) are not well understood. Here, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis is performed to identify the leading patterns in winter daily SAT fields from 1979 to 2018, and their associated atmospheric and ocean conditions are also examined. Three distinct winter SAT patterns with two phases of nearly opposite signs and a time scale of 7–12 days are found: one pattern exhibits concurrent SAT anomalies of the same sign over North America (NA) and northern Eurasia, while the other two patterns show SAT anomalies of opposite signs between, respectively, NA and the Bering Sea, and the Kara Sea and East Asia (EA). Winter SAT variations may arise from changes in the SOM frequencies. Specifically, the observed increasing trends of winter cold extremes over NA, central Eurasia, and EA during 1998–2013 can be understood as a result of the increasing occurrences of some specific SAT patterns. These SOMs are closely related to poleward advection of midlatitude warm air and equatorward movements of polar cold airmass. These meridional displacements of cold and warm airmasses cause concurrent anomalies over different regions not only in SAT but also in water vapor and surface downward longwave radiation. Anomalous sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, midlatitude North Pacific, and North Atlantic and anomalous Arctic sea ice concentrations also concur to support and maintain the anomalous atmospheric circulation that causes the SAT anomalies.

scholarly journals Surface Energy Balance Framework for Arctic Amplification of Climate Change

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (23) ◽  
pp. 8277-8288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glen Lesins ◽  
Thomas J. Duck ◽  
James R. Drummond
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Surface Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Inversion Strength

Abstract Using 22 Canadian radiosonde stations from 1971 to 2010, the annually averaged surface air temperature trend amplification ranged from 1.4 to 5.2 relative to the global average warming of 0.17°C decade−1. The amplification factors exhibit a strong latitudinal dependence varying from 2.6 to 5.2 as the latitude increases from 50° to 80°N. The warming trend has a strong seasonal dependence with the greatest warming taking place from September to April. The monthly variations in the warming trend are shown to be related to the surface-based temperature inversion strength and the mean monthly surface air temperatures. The surface energy balance (SEB) equation is used to relate the response of the surface temperature to changes in the surface energy fluxes. Based on the SEB analysis, there are four contributing factors to Arctic amplification: 1) a larger change in net downward radiation at the Arctic surface compared to the global average; 2) a larger snow and soil conductive heat flux change than the global average; 3) weaker sensible and latent heat flux responses that result in a larger surface temperature response in the Arctic; and 4) a colder skin temperature compared to the global average, which forces a larger surface warming to achieve the same increase in upward longwave radiation. The observed relationships between the Canadian station warming trends and both the surface-based inversion strength and the surface air temperature are shown to be consistent with the SEB analysis. Measurements of conductive flux were not available at these stations.

scholarly journals Unnatural Trend Detection of Arctic Amplification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Wang ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Taichen Feng ◽  
Fei Ji ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Arctic Amplification

Abstract The driving mechanism of Arctic amplification (AA) is so complex that no consistent and definitive conclusion has been formed yet. In particular, the natural or unnatural cause of AA has not yet been investigated and distinguished in clarity and depth. Given that the Arctic is more sensitive than other regions to greenhouse gases and other unnatural forcing, especially human activity, we are focusing on separating unnatural trend (caused by unnatural forcing) from the Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) changes during 1979–2017 to quantify the contribution of unnatural forcing on AA, with converting detection and attribution to probability statistics model. Compared to earlier studies, we find that the Arctic coast of the Siberian Great Plains, from the Barents Sea to the Kara Sea and eastward to the Bering Strait, has been warming most significantly, which is mainly dominated by unnatural trends. From 1979 to 2017, the minimum unnatural warming in most parts of the Arctic Ocean reached above 1.5℃, especially in the Kara Sea area, where the unnatural warming was significant, reaching 4℃. The Kara Sea is sensitive to unnatural forcing. In addition, the minimum unnatural contributions exceed 60% in most parts of the Arctic Circle, and was more than 80% in (75–90°N, 150–180°W). In 140°W-140°E Arctic region, the unnatural trend is the most remarkable with 0.82℃ per decade, accounting for 84.5% of the measured warming trend. Meanwhile, the unnatural trend changes most rapidly for the temporal evolution in this area (0-140°W, 60–90°N).

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