Energy Flow Diagnosis of ENSO from an Ocean Reanalysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 4023-4042
Author(s):  
Takahiro Toyoda ◽  
Hideyuki Nakano ◽  
Hidenori Aiki ◽  
Tomomichi Ogata ◽  
Yoshiki Fukutomi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Ocean Reanalysis ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Wind Events

AbstractA method is introduced for diagnosing the time evolution of wave energy associated with ENSO from an ocean reanalysis. In the diagnosis, time changes of kinetic and available potential energy are mainly represented by energy inputs caused by surface wind stress and horizontal energy fluxes for each vertically decomposed normal mode. The resulting time evolutions of the wave energy and vertical thermocline displacements in the 1997/98 and 2014–16 El Niño events are consistent with our previous knowledge of these events. Further, our result indicated that representation of several vertical modes is necessary to reproduce the broadly distributed downward thermocline displacements in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific, generated by a westerly wind event in the western equatorial Pacific (e.g., in March 1997), that are preconditioning for El Niño development. In addition, we investigated the wave energy budget, including the influence of data assimilation, on the complicated time evolution of equatorial thermocline displacements caused by repeated westerly and easterly wind events during the 2014–16 El Niño event. Our result suggests that noise from a momentum imbalance near the equator associated with data assimilation, which possibly affected the El Niño prediction failure in 2014, was much reduced by our developed ocean data assimilation system and reanalysis. This study, which provides a new connection between the theoretical works and reanalysis products that use sophisticated systems for synthesizing OGCMs and observations, should be useful for climate research and operational communities interested in ENSO.

Observed El Niño SSTA Development and the Effects of Easterly and Westerly Wind Events in 2014/15

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1505-1519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Chiodi ◽  
D. E. Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Westerly Wind Events

Abstract The unexpected halt of warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) growth in 2014 and development of a major El Niño in 2015 has drawn attention to our ability to understand and predict El Niño development. Wind stress–forced ocean model studies have satisfactorily reproduced observed equatorial Pacific SSTAs during periods when data return from the TAO/TRITON buoy network was high. Unfortunately, TAO/TRITON data return in 2014 was poor. To study 2014 SSTA development, the observed wind gaps must be filled. The hypothesis that subseasonal wind events provided the dominant driver of observed waveguide SSTA development in 2014 and 2015 is used along with the available buoy winds to construct an oceanic waveguide-wide surface stress field of westerly wind events (WWEs) and easterly wind surges (EWSs). It is found that the observed Niño-3.4 SSTA development in 2014 and 2015 can thereby be reproduced satisfactorily. Previous 2014 studies used other wind fields and reached differing conclusions about the importance of WWEs and EWSs. Experiment results herein help explain these inconsistencies, and clarify the relative importance of WWEs and EWSs. It is found that the springtime surplus of WWEs and summertime balance between WWEs and EWSs (yielding small net wind stress anomaly) accounts for the early development and midyear reversal of El Niño–like SSTA development in 2014. A strong abundance of WWEs in 2015 accounts for the rapid SSTA warming observed then. Accurately forecasting equatorial Pacific SSTA in years like 2014 and 2015 may require learning to predict WWE and EWS occurrence characteristics.

scholarly journals Contributions of Atmosphere–Ocean Interaction and Low-Frequency Variation to Intensity of Strong El Niño Events since 1979

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1381-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofan Li ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu ◽  
Bohua Huang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Frequency Variation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Ocean Coupling

Evolutions of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during four strong El Niños (1982/83, 1991/92, 1997/98, and 2015/16) since 1979 are compared. The contributions of the atmosphere–ocean coupling to El Niño–associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are identified and their association with low-level winds as well as different time-scale variations is examined. Although overall SSTA in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is strongest and comparable in the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niños, the associated subsurface ocean temperature as well as deep convection and surface wind stress anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are weaker during 2015/16 than that during 1997/98. That may be associated with a variation of the wind–SST and wind–thermocline interactions. Both the wind–SST and wind–thermocline interactions play a less important role during 2015/16 than during 1997/98. Such differences are associated with the differences of the low-level westerly wind as well as the contribution of different time-scale variations in different events. Similar to the interannual time-scale variation, the intraseasonal–interseasonal time-scale component always has positive contributions to the intensity of all four strong El Niños. Interestingly, the role of the interdecadal-trend time-scale component varies with event. The contribution is negligible during the 1982/83 El Niño, negative during the 1997/98 El Niño, and positive during the 1991/92 and 2015/16 El Niños. Thus, in addition to the atmosphere–ocean coupling at intraseasonal to interannual time scales, interdecadal and longer time-scale variations may play an important and sometimes crucial role in determining the intensity of El Niño.

scholarly journals A robust equatorial Pacific westerly response to tropical volcanism in multiple models

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3413-3429
Author(s):  
Jing Chai ◽  
Fei Liu ◽  
Chen Xing ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Chaochao Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
El Nino ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
West African ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
African Monsoon

Abstract After each of the 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions, an El Niño was observed. The increased likelihood of an El Niño after a tropical eruption has also been found in long-term reconstructed proxy data. Through examining simulations over the last millennium by 11 different models, we show that a tropical volcano eruption can robustly excite a western-to-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) westerly anomaly at 850 hPa in eight out of the 11 models; such a westerly anomaly is favorable for El Niño development. Under the volcanic forcing, there are significant extratropical continent surface cooling and tropical drying with negative precipitation anomalies over the South–South East Asia (SSEA), West African monsoon, and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) regions. This common precipitation suppression response occurs in most of the models. Sensitivity experiments show that a WCEP westerly anomaly can be excited by the tropical land cooling, especially the SSEA cooling induced precipitation suppression rather than by the extratropical land surface cooling. Theoretical results show that a WCEP westerly anomaly is excited due to a Gill response to reduced precipitation over the SSEA and West African monsoon regions; and the SSEA contributes more than the West African monsoon does. The ITCZ weakening, however, excites an easterly wind anomaly. The models with more sensitive convective feedback tend to simulate an El Niño more easily, while a failed simulation of an El Niño after a robust westerly anomaly in some models calls for further studies on these models’ delayed responses to radiative forcing induced by volcano eruptions.

Subseasonal Atmospheric Variability and El Niño Waveguide Warming: Observed Effects of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Westerly Wind Events*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3619-3642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Chiodi ◽  
D. E. Harrison ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Westerly Wind Events

Abstract Westerly wind events (WWEs) have previously been shown to initiate equatorial Pacific waveguide warming. The relationship between WWEs and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, as well as the role of MJO events in initiating waveguide warming, is reconsidered here over the 1986–2010 period. WWEs are identified in observations of near-surface zonal winds using an objective scheme. MJO events are defined using a widely used index, and 64 are identified that occur when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in its neutral state. Of these MJO events, 43 have one or more embedded WWEs and 21 do not. The evolution of sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Pacific waveguide following the westerly surface wind phase of the MJO over the western equatorial Pacific is examined. Waveguide warming is found for the MJO with WWE events in similar magnitudes as following the WWEs not embedded in an MJO. There is very little statistically significant waveguide warming following MJO events that do not contain an embedded WWE. The observed SST anomaly changes are well reproduced in an ocean general circulation model forced with the respective composite wind stress anomalies. Further, it is found that the occurrence of an MJO event does not significantly affect the likelihood that a WWE will occur. These results extend and confirm the earlier results of Vecchi with a near doubling of the period of study. It is suggested that understanding the sources and predictability of tropical Pacific westerly wind events remains essential to improving predictions of the onset of El Niño events.

scholarly journals Importance of El Niño reproducibility for reconstructing historical CO<sub>2</sub> flux variations in the equatorial Pacific

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michio Watanabe ◽  
Hiroaki Tatebe ◽  
Hiroshi Koyama ◽  
Tomohiro Hajima ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Subsurface Layer ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Ocean Temperature

Abstract. In the equatorial Pacific, air–sea CO2 flux is known to fluctuate in response to inherent climate variability, predominantly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For both investigation of the response of the carbon cycle to human-induced radiative perturbations and prediction of future global CO2 concentrations, representation of the interannual fluctuation of CO2 fluxes in Earth system models (ESMs) is essential. This study attempted to reproduce observed air–sea CO2 flux fluctuations in the equatorial Pacific using two ESMs, to which observed ocean temperature and salinity data were assimilated. When observations were assimilated into an ESM whose inherent ENSO variability was weaker than observations, nonnegligible correction terms on the governing equation of the equatorial ocean temperature caused anomalously false equatorial upwelling during El Niño periods that brought water rich in dissolved inorganic carbon from the subsurface layer to the surface layer. Contrary to observation, this resulted in an unusual upward air–sea CO2 flux anomaly that should not occur during El Niño periods. The absence of such unrealistic upwelling anomalies in the other ESM with the data assimilation reflects better representation of ENSO and the mean thermocline in this ESM without data assimilation. Our results demonstrate that adequate simulation of ENSO in an ESM is crucial for accurate reproduction of the variability in air–sea CO2 flux and hence, in the carbon cycle.

Charge in Long-Lasting El Niño Events by Convection-Induced Wind Anomalies over the Western Pacific in Boreal Spring

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 3755-3763 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenning Li ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Xiaoming Hu ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Bian He
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Boreal Spring ◽  
Convection Heating ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract In this study, El Niño events are classified as long El Niño (LE) events and short El Niño (SE) events based on their durations, and the characteristics of the early stages of these events are investigated. Results indicate that LE events tend to start earlier compared to SE events, initiating in boreal spring and peaking in winter. Their early occurrence is attributed to the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) sea surface wind anomalies that benefit the eastward propagation of warm water by forcing the downwelling Kelvin waves. It is also found that the wind anomalies are potentially induced by the convection anomalies over the WEP in spring. Experiments with a fully coupled climate model forced by convection heating anomalies over the WEP show that El Niño events become stronger and longer after introducing anomalous convection heating. The convection anomalies induce an extensive anomalous westerly belt over the WEP, which charges El Niño by eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. Moreover, induced by the anomalously northward-shifted ITCZ heating and the suppressed heating over the Maritime Continent, the equatorially asymmetric westerly belt reduces the meridional shear of mean easterly wind in the lower latitudes, which maintains an anomalous equatorward Sverdrup transport and in turn prolongs the persistence of El Niño events. A case study of the 2015/16 super El Niño and a regression study by using a rainfall index in critical regions support the above results.

scholarly journals Pre- and Post-1997/98 Westerly Wind Events and Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Warming*

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 568-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. E. Harrison ◽  
A. M. Chiodi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Westerly Wind Events

Abstract Westerly wind events (WWEs) in the western equatorial Pacific have previously been shown to cause significant warming of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Observational statistics compiled during and prior to the large El Niño event of 1997/98 link WWEs to substantial (up to 3°C) warming in the eastern Pacific cold tongue region. Since 1998, however, relatively little WWE-related cold tongue warming has been observed, and warm equatorial Pacific SST anomalies (SSTAs) have tended to be trapped near the date line rather than extending to the American coast as in a classical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) composite. Here, the relationship between WWEs and cold tongue warming is revisited using in situ and operational forecast winds and in situ and satellite-based SST. Significant differences are found in the basin-scale zonal wind anomalies associated with WWEs that occurred before and after 1997/98. Although the post-1997/98 composite WWE westerly anomalies are very similar to their predecessors within the WWE regions, conditions east of the WWE regions are different; there are enhanced equatorial easterlies in the post-1997/98 cases. General ocean circulation model experiments are conducted to explore the extent to which the observed changes in the character of post-1997/98 WWEs can explain the recent behavior of cold tongue SSTAs. It is found that the wind differences can account for the changes in the average cold tongue warming associated with pre- and post-1997/98 WWEs.

scholarly journals Importance of El Niño reproducibility for reconstructing historical CO<sub>2</sub> flux variations in the equatorial Pacific

Ocean Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1431-1442
Author(s):  
Michio Watanabe ◽  
Hiroaki Tatebe ◽  
Hiroshi Koyama ◽  
Tomohiro Hajima ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Ocean Data Assimilation ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. Based on a set of climate simulations utilizing two kinds of Earth system models (ESMs) in which observed ocean hydrographic data are assimilated using exactly the same data assimilation procedure, we have clarified that the successful simulation of the observed air–sea CO2 flux variations in the equatorial Pacific is tightly linked to the reproducibility of coupled physical air–sea processes. When an ESM with a weaker ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillations) amplitude than that of the observations was used for historical simulations with ocean data assimilation, the observed equatorial anticorrelated relationship between the sea surface temperature (SST) and the air–sea CO2 flux on interannual to decadal timescales could not be represented. The simulated CO2 flux anomalies were upward (downward) during El Niño (La Niña) periods in the equatorial Pacific. The reason for this was that the non-negligible correction term in the governing equation of ocean temperature, which was added via the ocean data assimilation procedure, caused an anomalous, spurious equatorial upwelling (downwelling) during El Niño (La Niña) periods, which brought more (less) subsurface layer water rich in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the surface layer. On the other hand, in the historical simulations where the observational data were assimilated into the other ESM with a more realistic ENSO representation, the correction term associated with the assimilation procedure remained small enough so as not to disturb an anomalous advection–diffusion balance for the equatorial ocean temperature. Consequently, spurious vertical transport of DIC and the resultant positively correlated SST and air–sea CO2 flux variations did not occur. Thus, the reproducibility of the tropical air–sea CO2 flux variability with data assimilation can be significantly attributed to the reproducibility of ENSO in an ESM. Our results suggest that, when using data assimilation to initialize ESMs for carbon cycle predictions, the reproducibility of the internal climate variations in the model itself is of great importance.

scholarly journals Effect of the Variability of Wind Forcing on ENSO Simulation in an OGCM: Case of Canonical and Protracted Event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anika Arora
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Warm Water Volume

Abstract This study is an attempt to understand the onset and evolution of canonical El Niño (~ 18–24 months; CE) and protracted El Niño (> greater than 3 years; PE) compared to the normal state (NS) in an ocean model. Indo-Pacific warm pool indicates higher values of SST before the onset of strong canonical El Niño compared to the normal state and protracted El Niño. The ocean model used in the study shows systematic SST bias in the Indo-Pacific Ocean with higher (cooler) values of temperature in western (eastern) Pacific during NS, CE, and PE exhibiting La Niña like conditions. The ocean model exhibits deeper thermocline depth in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean (PO) during PE and CE compared to NS indicating higher values of heat content (warm water volume). Despite the presence of higher warm water volume in the western PO before the onset of El Niño, the difference in the variability of surface wind forcing during the preceding months determines the type of El Niño. The interplay of surface wind forcing among the NS, PE, and CE states without altering the ocean state can modify the subsurface propagation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A change in longitudinal extent of upwelling Kelvin waves towards eastern PO along with the change in surface wind forcing decides the fate of El Niño in the eastern Pacific.

scholarly journals Mechanisms linking multi-year La Niña with preceding strong El Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoki Iwakiri ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
La Nina

AbstractEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by anomalous sea surface temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, is a dominant interannual variability, impacting worldwide weather and socioeconomics. The ENSO cycle contains irregularity, in which La Niña often persists for more than two years, called “multi-year La Niña”. Observational records show that multi-year La Niña tends to accompany strong El Niño in the preceding year, but their physical linkage remains unclear. Here we show using reanalysis data that a strong El Niño excites atmospheric conditions that favor the generation of multi-year La Niña in subsequent years. Easterly wind anomalies along the northern off-equatorial Pacific during the decay phase of the strong El Niño are found crucial as they act to discharge ocean heat content (OHC) via an anomalous northward Ekman transport. The negative OHC anomaly is large enough to be restored by a single La Niña and, therefore, causes another La Niña to occur in the second year. Furthermore, analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models support the abovementioned mechanisms and indicate that the occurrence frequencies of multi-year La Niña and strong El Niño are highly correlated.

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