scholarly journals Dynamical attribution of North Atlantic interdecadal predictability to oceanic and atmospheric turbulence under diagnosed and optimal stochastic forcing

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dafydd Stephenson ◽  
F. Sévellec
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Content Volume ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Volume Transport ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Lower Sensitivity ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The Impact

AbstractUnpredictable variations in the ocean originate from both external atmospheric forcing and chaotic processes internal to the ocean itself, and are a crucial sink of predictability on interdecadal timescales. In a global ocean model, we present i.) an optimization framework to compute the most efficient noise patterns to generate uncertainty and ii.) a computationally inexpensive, dynamical method for attributing sources of ocean uncertainty to internal (mesoscale eddy-driven) and external (atmospherically driven) origins, sidestepping the more typical ensemble approach. These two methods are then applied to a range of metrics (heat content, volume transport, and heat transport) and time averages (monthly, yearly, and decadal) in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic. The optimal noise patterns create variability in integrated quantities of interest through features of the underlying circulation such as the North Atlantic Current and deep water formation regions. Meanwhile, noise forcing diagnosed from model representations of the actual climate system stimulates these theoretical patterns with various degrees of efficiency, ultimately leading to the growth of error. We reaffirm that higher frequency variations in meridional transports are primarily wind driven, while surface buoyancy forcing is the ultimately dominant source of uncertainty at lower frequencies. For year-averaged quantities in the subtropics, it is mesoscale eddies which contribute the most to oceanic uncertainty, accounting for up to 60% after 60 years of growth for volume transport at 25°N. The impact of eddies is greatly reduced in the subpolar region, which we suggest may be explained by overall lower sensitivity to small-scale noise there.

scholarly journals The mean state and variability of the North Atlantic circulation: a perspective from ocean reanalyses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Jackson ◽  
Clotilde Dubois ◽  
Gael Forget ◽  
Keith Haines ◽  
Matt Harrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Reanalyses ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Mean State

<p>The observational network around the North Atlantic has improved significantly over the last few decades with the advent of Argo and satellite observations, and the more recent efforts to monitor the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) using arrays such as RAPID and OSNAP. These have shown decadal timescale changes across the North Atlantic including in heat content, heat transport and the circulation. </p><p>However there are still significant gaps in the observational coverage, and significant uncertainties around some observational products. Ocean reanalyses integrate the observations with a dynamically consistent ocean model and are potentially tools that can be used to understand the observed changes. However the suitability of the reanalyses for the task must also be assessed.<br>We use an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses in comparison with observations in order to examine the mean state and interannual-decadal variability of the North Atlantic ocean since 1993. We assess how well the reanalyses are able to capture different processes and whether any understanding can be inferred. In particular we look at ocean heat content, transports, the AMOC and gyre strengths, water masses and convection. </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Observations of nutrient supply by mesoscale eddy stirring and small‐scale turbulence in the oligotrophic North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl P. Spingys ◽  
Richard G. Williams ◽  
Robyn E. Tuerena ◽  
Alberto Naveira Garabato ◽  
Clément Vic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
Nutrient Supply ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Scale Turbulence

scholarly journals A Comparison of the Variability and Changes in Global Ocean Heat Content from Multiple Objective Analysis Products During the Argo Period

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-47
Author(s):  
Xinfeng Liang ◽  
Chao Liu ◽  
Rui M. Ponte ◽  
Don P. Chambers
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Objective Analysis ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ocean Measurements

AbstractOcean heat content (OHC) is key to estimating the energy imbalance of the earth system. Over the past two decades, an increasing number of OHC studies were conducted using oceanic objective analysis (OA) products. Here we perform an intercomparison of OHC from eight OA products with a focus on their robust features and significant differences over the Argo period (2005-2019), when the most reliable global scale oceanic measurements are available. For the global ocean, robust warming in the upper 2000 m is confirmed. The 0-300 m layer shows the highest warming rate but is heavily modulated by interannual variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The 300-700 m and 700-2000 m layers, on the other hand, show unabated warming. Regionally, the Southern Ocean and mid-latitude North Atlantic show a substantial OHC increase, and the subpolar North Atlantic displays an OHC decrease. A few apparent differences in OHC among the examined OA products were identified. In particular, temporal means of a few OA products that incorporated other ocean measurements besides Argo show a global-scale cooling difference, which is likely related to the baseline climatology fields used to generate those products. Large differences also appear in the interannual variability in the Southern Ocean and in the long-term trends in the subpolar North Atlantic. These differences remind us of the possibility of product-dependent conclusions on OHC variations. Caution is therefore warranted when using merely one OA product to conduct OHC studies, particularly in regions and on timescales that display significant differences.

scholarly journals Climatic Consequences of a Pine Island Glacier Collapse

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (23) ◽  
pp. 9221-9234 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. M. Green ◽  
A. Schmittner
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Intermediate Water ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Surface

Abstract An intermediate-complexity climate model is used to simulate the impact of an accelerated Pine Island Glacier mass loss on the large-scale ocean circulation and climate. Simulations are performed for preindustrial conditions using hosing levels consistent with present-day observations of 3000 m3 s−1, at an accelerated rate of 6000 m3 s−1, and at a total collapse rate of 100 000 m3 s−1, and in all experiments the hosing lasted 100 years. It is shown that even a modest input of meltwater from the glacier can introduce an initial cooling over the upper part of the Southern Ocean due to increased stratification and ice cover, leading to a reduced upward heat flux from Circumpolar Deep Water. This causes global ocean heat content to increase and global surface air temperatures to decrease. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) increases, presumably owing to changes in the density difference between Antarctic Intermediate Water and North Atlantic Deep Water. Simulations with a simultaneous hosing and increases of atmospheric CO2 concentrations show smaller effects of the hosing on global surface air temperature and ocean heat content, which the authors attribute to the melting of Southern Ocean sea ice. The sensitivity of the AMOC to the hosing is also reduced as the warming by the atmosphere completely dominates the perturbations.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5491-5512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Drews ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Supply ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Eastern Side ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

This article investigates the dynamics and temporal evolution of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in a coupled climate model. The model contains a correction to the North Atlantic flow field to improve the path of the North Atlantic Current, thereby alleviating the surface cold bias, a common problem with climate models, and offering a unique opportunity to study the AMV in a model. Changes in greenhouse gas forcing or aerosol loading are not considered. A striking feature of the results is the contrast between the western and eastern sides of the subpolar gyre in the model. On the western side, anomalous heat supply by the ocean plays a major role, with most of this heat being given up to the atmosphere in the warm phase, largely symmetrically about the time of the AMV maximum. By contrast, on the eastern side, the ocean anomalously gains heat from the atmosphere, with relatively little role for ocean heat supply in the years before the AMV maximum. Thereafter, the balance changes with heat now being anomalously removed from the eastern side by the ocean, leading to a reduced ocean heat content, behavior associated with the establishment of an intergyre gyre at the time of the AMV maximum. In the warm phase, melting sea ice leads to a freshening of surface waters northeast of Greenland that travel southward into the Irminger and Labrador Seas, shutting down convection and terminating the AMV warm phase.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability in the Pathways of the North Atlantic Current over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Impact of Topography

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy S. Bower ◽  
Wilken-Jon von Appen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Fracture Zone ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
Mid Atlantic Ridge ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Atlantic Current

Abstract Recent studies have indicated that the North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre circulation undergoes significant interannual-to-decadal changes in response to variability in atmospheric forcing. There are also observations, however, suggesting that the southern limb of the subpolar gyre, namely, the eastward-flowing North Atlantic Current (NAC), may be quasi-locked to particular latitudes in the central North Atlantic by fracture zones (gaps) in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This could constrain the current’s ability to respond to variability in forcing. In the present study, subsurface float trajectories at 100–1000 m collected during 1997–99 and satellite-derived surface geostrophic velocities from 1992 to 2006 are used to provide an improved description of the detailed pathways of the NAC over the ridge and their relationship to bathymetry. Both the float and satellite observations indicate that in 1997–99, the northern branch of the NAC was split into two branches as it crossed the ridge, one quasi-locked to the Charlie–Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ; 52°–53°N) and the other to the Faraday Fracture Zone (50°–51°N). The longer satellite time series shows, however, that this pattern did not persist outside the float sampling period and that other branching modes persisted for one or more years, including an approximately 12-month time period in 2002–03 when the strongest eastward flow over the ridge was at ∼49°N. Schott et al. showed how northward excursions of the NAC can temporarily block the westward flow of the Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water through the CGFZ. From the 13-yr time series of surface geostrophic velocity, it is estimated that such blocking may occur on average 6% of the time, although estimates for any given 12-month period range from 0% to 35%.

Global Decadal Upper-Ocean Heat Content as Viewed in Nine Analyses

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 6015-6035 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Carton ◽  
Anthony Santorelli
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Abstract This paper examines nine analyses of global ocean 0-/700-m temperature and heat content during the 43-yr period of warming, 1960–2002. Among the analyses are two that are independent of any numerical model, six that rely on sequential data assimilation, including an ocean general circulation model, and one that uses four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR), including an ocean general circulation model and its adjoint. Most analyses show gradual warming of the global ocean with an ensemble trend of 0.77 × 108 J m−2 (10 yr)−1 (=0.24 W m−2) as the result of rapid warming in the early 1970s and again beginning around 1990. One proposed explanation for these variations is the effect of volcanic eruptions in 1963 and 1982. Examination of this hypothesis suggests that while there is an oceanic signal, it is insufficient to explain the observed heat content variations. A second potential cause of decadal variations in global heat content is the uncorrelated contribution of heat content variations in individual ocean basins. The subtropical North Atlantic is warming at twice the global average, with accelerated warming in the 1960s and again beginning in the late 1980s and extending through the end of the record. The Barents Sea region of the Arctic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have also warmed, while the western subpolar North Atlantic has cooled. Heat content variability in the North Pacific differs significantly from the North Atlantic. There the spatial and temporal patterns are consistent with the decadal variability previously identified through observational and modeling studies examining SST and surface winds. In the Southern Hemisphere large heat content anomalies are evident, and while there is substantial disagreement among analyses on average the band of latitudes at 30°–60°S contribute significantly to the global warming trend. Thus, the uncorrelated contributions of heat content variations in the individual basins are a major contributor to global heat content variations. A third potential contributor to global heat content variations is the effect of time-dependent bias in the set of historical observations. This last possibility is examined by comparing the analyses to the unbiased salinity–temperature–depth dataset and finding a very substantial warm bias in all analyses in the 1970s relative to the latter decades. This warm bias may well explain the rapid increase in analysis heat content in the early 1970s, but not the more recent increase, which began in the early 1990s. Finally, this study provides information about the similarities and differences between analyses that are independent of a model and those that use sequential assimilation and 4DVAR. The comparisons provide considerable encouragement for the use of the sequential analyses for climate research despite the presence of erroneous variability (also present in the no-model analyses) resulting from instrument bias. The strengths and weaknesses of each analysis need to be considered for a given application.

scholarly journals Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaxu Zhang ◽  
Wilbert Weijer ◽  
Michael Steele ◽  
Wei Cheng ◽  
Tarun Verma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Labrador Sea ◽  
Beaufort Gyre ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Freshwater Release ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Beaufort Gyre (BG), the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has drastically increased its liquid freshwater content by 40% in the past two decades. If released within a short period, the excess freshwater could potentially impact the large-scale ocean circulation by freshening the upper subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we track BG-sourced freshwater using passive tracers in a global ocean sea-ice model and show that this freshwater exited the Arctic mostly through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, rather than Fram Strait, during an historical release event in 1983–1995. The Labrador Sea is the most affected region in the subpolar North Atlantic, with a freshening of 0.2 psu on the western shelves and 0.4 psu in the Labrador Current. Given that the present BG freshwater content anomaly is twice the historical analog studied here, the impact of a future rapid release on Labrador Sea salinity could be significant, easily exceeding similar fluxes from Greenland meltwater.

scholarly journals Sea-Surface Characteristics of the Newfoundland Basin of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean during the Last 145,000 Years: A Study Based on the Sedimentological and Paleontological Proxies

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3343
Author(s):  
Harunur Rashid ◽  
Qian Qian Lu ◽  
Min Zeng ◽  
Yang Wang ◽  
Zhao Wu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Water Masses ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Ecological Niches ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
Newfoundland Basin ◽  
The Impact

Dramatic changes occur in the sea-surface characteristics (i.e., temperature and salinity) and freshwater input due to the interaction of cold and fresh Labrador Current and warm and salty North Atlantic Current (NAC) on the southeast Grand Banks. As a result, the biological productivity and seasonal stratification of the upper water masses are intensified. Such changes must have been more dramatic during the glacial times due to the penetration of the Polar and Arctic fronts and southward migration of the Gulf Stream/NAC. However, the extent to which such changes impacted the sea-surface characteristics in the Newfoundland Basin is poorly known. We report changes in the sea-surface characteristics using a piston core (Hu9007-08) collected from the Milne seamount during the last 145,000 years. Heinrich layers H1, H2, H4, and H5 and H11 within the MIS3 and at the penultimate deglaciation were identified by the ice-rafted detritus (IRD) and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma peaks and lighter oxygen isotopes. Rapid turnover by the foraminiferal species with distinct depth habitats and ecological niches in the mixed-layer and thermocline suggests an interplay between the polar and subpolar water masses during the Heinrich and non-Heinrich periods. Only two North Atlantic-wide cooling events, C24 and C21, in which the latter event linked to the minor IRD event during the marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 in Hu90-08, compared to the eight events in the eastern subpolar gyre (e.g., ODP site 984). Millennial-scale N. pachyderma variability in the western subpolar gyre appears to be absent in the eastern subpolar gyre during the MIS3 suggesting the occasional presence of salty and warm water by the NAC inflow, implying a different climate state between the western and eastern subpolar gyre. Although T. quinqueloba data are fragmentary, there are differences between the western and eastern subpolar gyre in addition to the differences within the western subpolar gyre during MIS5 that might imply a variable influence by the subpolar water. This finding suggests that the influence by the NAC outweighs the impact of cold and fresh polar water in the northern northwest Atlantic during the MIS5.

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