A local-to-large scale view of Maritime Continent rainfall: control by ENSO, MJO and equatorial waves

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Simon C. Peatman ◽  
Juliane Schwendike ◽  
Cathryn E. Birch ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Adrian J. Matthews ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Local Circulation ◽  
Wind Regimes ◽  
Equatorial Rossby Waves

AbstractThe canonical view of the Maritime Continent (MC) diurnal cycle is deep convection occurring over land during the afternoon and evening, tending to propagate offshore overnight. However, there is considerable day-to-day variability in the convection, and the mechanism of the offshore propagation is not well understood. We test the hypothesis that large-scale drivers such as ENSO, the MJO and equatorial waves, through their modification of the local circulation, can modify the direction or strength of the propagation, or prevent the deep convection from triggering in the first place. Taking a local-to-large scale approach we use in situ observations, satellite data and reanalyses for five MC coastal regions, and show that the occurrence of the diurnal convection and its offshore propagation is closely tied to coastal wind regimes we define using the k-means cluster algorithm. Strong prevailing onshore winds are associated with a suppressed diurnal cycle of precipitation; while prevailing offshore winds are associated with an active diurnal cycle, offshore propagation of convection and a greater risk of extreme rainfall. ENSO, the MJO, equatorial Rossby waves and westward mixed Rossby-gravity waves have varying levels of control over which coastal wind regime occurs, and therefore on precipitation, depending on the MC coastline in question. The large-scale drivers associated with dry and wet regimes are summarised for each location as a reference for forecasters.

The Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and the Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves over the Maritime Continent

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3307-3331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoko Sakaeda ◽  
George Kiladis ◽  
Juliana Dias
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Moisture Profile ◽  
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves ◽  
Large Scale Disturbance ◽  
Diurnal Rainfall ◽  
Equatorial Rossby Waves

AbstractPrecipitation variability over the Maritime Continent is predominantly explained by its diurnal cycle and large-scale disturbances such as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). To advance our understanding of their interactions and physical processes, this study uses satellite data to examine changes in the diurnal cycle of rainfall associated with the MJO and CCEWs over the Maritime Continent. We find that diurnal cycle modulations associated with the passage of any type of large-scale disturbance are closely tied to changes in rain types and land–sea diurnal propagation of rainfall. When the amplitude of the diurnal cycle increases over the islands, the phase of the diurnal cycle is delayed by a few hours as clouds are more organized and rainfall from stratiform-anvil clouds increases. Enhanced amplitude of the diurnal cycle can alter the speed of land–sea diurnal propagation of rainfall, which then influences the timing of diurnal rainfall over coastal regions. These changes in the diurnal cycle occur asymmetrically across the island terrain associated with the MJO and equatorial Rossby waves, while such asymmetric modulations are not observed for other waves. Geographical and wave dependencies of the diurnal cycle are linked to differences in large-scale lower tropospheric wind, vertical motion, and moisture profile perturbations, which are in turn tied to differences in cloud population evolution. The results of this study highlight the importance of further improving our understanding of the sensitivity of cloud populations to varying large-scale phenomena.

Diurnal Cycle of Shallow and Deep Convection for a Tropical Land and an Ocean Environment and Its Relationship to Synoptic Wind Regimes

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (10) ◽  
pp. 2688-2701 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Gustavo Pereira ◽  
Steven A. Rutledge
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Wind Regime ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Synoptic Wind ◽  
Wind Regimes ◽  
Rain Rates

Abstract The characteristics of shallow and deep convection during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (TRMM/LBA) and the Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere System (EPIC) are evaluated in this study. Using high-quality radar data collected during these two tropical field experiments, the reflectivity profiles, rain rates, fraction of convective area, and fraction of rainfall volume in each region are examined. This study focuses on the diurnal cycle of shallow and deep convection for the identified wind regimes in both regions. The easterly phase in TRMM/LBA and the northerly wind regime in EPIC were associated with the strongest convection, indicated by larger rain rates, higher reflectivities, and deeper convective cores compared to the westerly phase in TRMM/LBA and the southerly regime in EPIC. The diurnal cycle results indicated that convection initiates in the morning and peaks in the afternoon during TRMM/LBA, whereas in the east Pacific the diurnal cycle of convection is very dependent on the wind regime. Deep convection in the northerly regime peaks around midnight, nearly 6 h before its southerly regime counterpart. Moreover, the northerly regime of EPIC was dominated by convective rainfall, whereas the southerly regime was dominated by stratiform rainfall. The diurnal variability was more pronounced during TRMM/LBA than in EPIC. Shallow convection was associated with 10% and 3% of precipitation during TRMM/LBA and EPIC, respectively.

scholarly journals Diurnal cycle of precipitation and near-surface atmospheric conditions over the maritime continent: land–sea contrast and impacts of ambient winds in cloud-permitting simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuntao Wei ◽  
Zhaoxia Pu
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Return Flow ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Near Surface

AbstractA set of cloud-permitting-scale numerical simulations during January–February 2018 is used to examine the diurnal cycle (DC) of precipitation and near-surface variables (e.g., 2 m temperature, 10 m wind and convergence) over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent under the impacts of shore-orthogonal ambient winds (SOAWs). It is found that the DC of these variables and their variabilities of daily maxima, minima, and diurnal amplitudes vary over land, sea, and coastal regions. Among all variables, the DC of precipitation has the highest linear correlation with near-surface convergence (near-surface temperature) over coastal (noncoastal) regions. The correlations among the DCs of precipitation, wind, and heating are greater over the ocean than over land. Sine curves can model accurately the DCs of most variables over the ocean, but not over land. SOAWs act to influence the DC mainly by affecting the diurnal amplitude of the considered variables, with DC being stronger under more strengthened offshore SOAWs, though variable dependence and regional variability exist. Composite analysis over Sumatra reveals that under weak SOAWs, shallow clouds are dominant and cause a pre-moistening effect, supporting shallow-to-deep convection transition. A sea breeze circulation (SBC) with return flow aloft can develop rapidly. Cold pools are better able to trigger new updrafts and contribute to the upscale growth and inland migration of deep convection. In addition, warm gravity waves can propagate upward throughout the troposphere, thereby supporting a strong DC. In contrast, under strong SOAWs, both shallow and middle-high clouds prevail and persist throughout the day. The evolution of moistening and SBC is reduced, leading to weak variation in vertical motion and rainwater confined to the boundary layer. Large-scale winds, moisture, and convection are discussed to interpret how strong SOAWs affect the DC of Sumatra.

scholarly journals The Impact of MJO, Kelvin, and Equatorial Rossby Waves on the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 711
Author(s):  
Lakemariam Worku ◽  
Ademe Mekonnen ◽  
Carl Schreck
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
Precipitation Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Convection Dominated ◽  
Equatorial Rossby Waves

The impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, and Equatorial Rossby (ER) waves on the diurnal cycle of rainfall and types of deep convection over the Maritime Continent are investigated using rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis and Infrared Weather States (IR–WS) data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. In an absolute sense, the MJO produced its strongest modulations of rainfall and organized deep convection over the islands, when and where convection is already strongest. The MJO actually has a greater percentage modulation over the coasts and seas, but it does not affect weaker diurnal cycle there. Isolated deep convection was also more prevalent over land during the suppressed phase, while organized deep convection dominated the enhanced phase, consistent with past work. This study uniquely examined the effects of Kelvin and ER waves on rainfall, convection, and their diurnal cycles over the Maritime Continent. The modulation of convection by Kelvin waves closely mirrored that by the MJO, although the Kelvin wave convection continued farther into the decreasing phase. The signals for ER waves were also similar but less distinct. An improved understanding of how these waves interact with convection could lead to improved subseasonal forecast skill.

scholarly journals Detecting and Tracking Coastal Precipitation in the Tropics: Methods and Insights into Multiscale Variability of Tropical Precipitation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 6689-6705
Author(s):  
David Coppin ◽  
Gilles Bellon ◽  
Alexander Pletzer ◽  
Chris Scott
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Summer Hemisphere ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Climate Prediction Center

AbstractWe propose an algorithm to detect and track coastal precipitation systems and we apply it to 18 years of the high-resolution (8 km and 30 min) Climate Prediction Center CMORPH precipitation estimates in the tropics. Coastal precipitation in the Maritime Continent and Central America contributes to up to 80% of the total rainfall. It also contributes strongly to the diurnal cycle over land with the largest contribution from systems lasting between 6 and 12 h and contributions from longer-lived systems peaking later in the day. While the diurnal cycle of coastal precipitation is more intense over land in the summer hemisphere, its timing is independent of seasons over both land and ocean because the relative contributions from systems of different lifespans are insensitive to the seasonal cycle. We investigate the hypothesis that coastal precipitation is enhanced prior to the arrival of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) envelope over the Maritime Continent. Our results support this hypothesis and show that, when considering only coastal precipitation, the diurnal cycle appears reinforced even earlier over islands than previously reported. We discuss the respective roles of coastal and large-scale precipitation in the propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent. We also document a shift in diurnal cycle with the phases of the MJO, which results from changes in the relative contributions of short-lived versus long-lived coastal systems.

scholarly journals Influence of ENSO on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Australia

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1304-1321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surendra P. Rauniyar ◽  
Kevin J. E. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

Abstract This study examines the influence of ENSO on the diurnal cycle of rainfall during boreal winter for the period 1998–2010 over the Maritime Continent (MC) and Australia using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and reanalysis data. The diurnal cycles are composited for the ENSO cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) phases. The k-means clustering technique is then applied to group the TRMM data into six clusters, each with a distinct diurnal cycle. Despite the alternating patterns of widespread large-scale subsidence and ascent associated with the Walker circulation, which dominates the climate over the MC during the opposing phases of ENSO, many of the islands of the MC show localized differences in rainfall anomalies that depend on the local geography and orography. While ocean regions mostly experience positive rainfall anomalies during La Niña, some local regions over the islands have more rainfall during El Niño. These local features are also associated with anomalies in the amplitude and characteristics of the diurnal cycle in these regions. These differences are also well depicted in large-scale dynamical fields derived from the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim).

MJO-Induced Variability of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over the Maritime Continent

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajda Savarin ◽  
Shuyi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Convective Envelope ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Western Pacific

<p>Large-scale convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) initiates over the Indian Ocean and propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) into the western Pacific. As an MJO enters the MC, it often weakens or completely dissipates due to complex interactions between the large-scale MJO and the MC landmass and its topography. This is referred to as the MC barrier effect, and it is responsible for the dissipation of 40-50% of observed MJO events. One of the main reasons for the MJO’s weakening and dissipation over the MC is the diurnal cycle (DC), one of the strongest modes of variability in the region. Due to the complex nature of the MJO and the MC’s complicated topography, the interaction between the DC and the MJO is not well understood.</p><p>In this study, we examine the MJO-induced variability of the DC of precipitation over the MC. We use gridded satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42 and GPM IMERG) to: (1) track the MJO convective envelope using the Large-scale Precipitation Tracking algorithm (LPT), (2) analyze the changes in the DC of precipitation over the MC relative to the passage of the MJO. We find that the presence of an MJO not only increases the amount of precipitation over the MC, but that the increase is more pronounced over water than over land. The results from observations are compared to those from two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, MERRA-2). The reanalysis datasets are then used to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic changes that drive the variability in the DC of precipitation relative to the MJO. In addition, we separate MJO events into two groups based on whether they cross the MC, and independently examine their influences on the evolution of the DC of precipitation.</p>

scholarly journals The SCOUT-O3 Darwin Aircraft Campaign: rationale and meteorology

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Brunner ◽  
P. Siegmund ◽  
P. T. May ◽  
L. Chappel ◽  
C. Schiller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Cold Trap ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Tropical Tropopause

Abstract. An aircraft measurement campaign involving the Russian high-altitude aircraft M55 Geophysica and the German DLR Falcon was conducted in Darwin, Australia in November and December 2005 as part of the European integrated project SCOUT-O3. The overall objectives of the campaign were to study the transport of trace gases through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), mechanisms of dehydration close to the tropopause, and the role of deep convection in these processes. In this paper a detailed roadmap of the campaign is presented, including rationales for each flight, and an analysis of the local and large-scale meteorological context in which they were embedded. The campaign took place during the pre-monsoon season which is characterized by a pronounced diurnal evolution of deep convection including a mesoscale system over the Tiwi Islands north of Darwin known as "Hector". This allowed studying in detail the role of deep convection in structuring the tropical tropopause region, in situ sampling convective overshoots above storm anvils, and probing the structure of anvils and cirrus clouds by Lidar and a suite of in situ instruments onboard the two aircraft. The large-scale flow during the first half of the campaign was such that local flights, away from convection, sampled air masses downstream of the "cold trap" region over Indonesia. Abundant cirrus clouds enabled the study of active dehydration, in particular during two TTL survey flights. The campaign period also encompassed a Rossby wave breaking event transporting stratospheric air to the tropical middle troposphere and an equatorial Kelvin wave modulating tropopause temperatures and hence the conditions for dehydration.

Characterizing Tropical Cirrus Life Cycle, Evolution, and Interaction with Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor Using Lagrangian Trajectory Analysis of Satellite Observations

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 4541-4563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengzhao Luo ◽  
William B. Rossow
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Trajectory Analysis ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Infrared Observation ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Cloud Data ◽  
Lagrangian Trajectory ◽  
Advection Term

Abstract Tropical cirrus evolution and its relation to upper-tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) are examined in the paper by analyzing satellite-derived cloud data, UTWV data from infrared and microwave measurements, and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis wind field. Building upon the existing International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data and the Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) product, a global (except polar region), 6-hourly cirrus dataset is developed from two infrared radiance measurements at 11 and 12 μm. The UTWV is obtained in both clear and cloudy locations by developing a combined satellite infrared and microwave-based retrieval. The analysis in this study is conducted in a Lagrangian framework. The Lagrangian trajectory analysis shows that the decay of deep convection is immediately followed by the growth of cirrostratus and cirrus, and then the decay of cirrostratus is followed by the continued growth of cirrus. Cirrus properties continuously evolve along the trajectories as they gradually thin out and move to the lower levels. Typical tropical cirrus systems last for 19–30 ± 16 h. This is much longer than cirrus particle lifetimes, suggesting that other processes (e.g., large-scale lifting) replenish the particles to maintain tropical cirrus. Consequently, tropical cirrus can advect over large distances, about 600–1000 km, during their lifetimes. For almost all current GCMs, this distance spans more than one grid box, requiring that the water vapor and cloud water budgets include an advection term. Based on their relationship to convective systems, detrainment cirrus are distinguished from in situ cirrus. It is found that more than half of the tropical cirrus are formed in situ well away from convection. The interaction between cirrus and UTWV is explored by comparing the evolution of the UTWV along composite clear trajectories and trajectories with cirrus. Cirrus are found to be associated with a moister upper troposphere and a slower rate of decrease of UTWV. Moreover, the elevated UTWV has a longer duration than cirrus. The amount of water in cirrus is too small for evaporation of cirrus ice particles to moisten the upper troposphere significantly (but cirrus may be an important water vapor sink). Rather, it is likely that the same transient motions that produce the cirrus also transport water vapor upward to maintain a larger UTWV.

scholarly journals Comparison between the Large-Scale Environments of Moderate and Intense Precipitating Systems in the Mediterranean Region

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (11) ◽  
pp. 3933-3959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz M. Funatsu ◽  
Chantal Claud ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Microwave Sounding ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract A characterization of the large-scale environment associated with precipitating systems in the Mediterranean region, based mainly on NOAA-16 Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations from 2001 to 2007, is presented. Channels 5, 7, and 8 of AMSU-A are used to identify upper-level features, while a simple and tractable method, based on combinations of channels 3–5 of AMSU-B and insensitive to land–sea contrast, was used to identify precipitation. Rain occurrence is widespread over the Mediterranean in wintertime while reduced or short lived in the eastern part of the basin in summer. The location of convective precipitation shifts from mostly over land from April to August, to mostly over the sea from September to December. A composite analysis depicting large-scale conditions, for cases of either rain alone or extensive areas of deep convection, is performed for selected locations where the occurrence of intense rainfall was found to be important. In both cases, an upper-level trough is seen to the west of the target area, but for extreme rainfall the trough is narrower and has larger amplitude in all seasons. In general, these troughs are also deeper for extreme rainfall. Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analyses, it was found that sea surface temperature anomalies composites for extreme rainfall are often about 1 K warmer, compared to nonconvective precipitation conditions, in the vicinity of the affected area, and the wind speed at 850 hPa is also stronger and usually coming from the sea.

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