Precipitation and Cloud Structure in Midlatitude Cyclones

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Field ◽  
Robert Wood
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
The North ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
Midlatitude Cyclones

Abstract Composite mean fields and probability distribution functions (PDFs) of rain rate, cloud type and cover, cloud-top temperature, surface wind velocity, and water vapor path (WVP) are constructed using satellite observations of midlatitude cyclones from four oceanic regions (i.e., the North Pacific, South Pacific, North Atlantic, and South Atlantic). Reanalysis surface pressure fields are used to ascertain the locations of the cyclone centers, onto which the satellite fields are interpolated to give a database of ∼1500 cyclones from a two-year period (2003–04). Cyclones are categorized by their strength, defined here using surface wind speed, and by their WVP, and it is found that these two measures can explain a considerable amount of the intercyclone variability of other key variables. Composite cyclones from each of the four ocean basins exhibit similar spatial structure for a given strength and WVP. A set of nine composites is constructed from the database using three strength and three WVP ranges and is used to demonstrate that the mean column relative humidity of these systems varies only slightly (0.58–0.62) for a doubling in WVP (or equivalently a 7-K rise in sea surface temperature) and a 50% increase in cyclone strength. However, cyclone-mean rain rate increases markedly with both cyclone strength and WVP, behavior that is explained with a simple warm conveyor belt model. Systemwide high cloud fraction (tops above 440 hPa) increases from 0.23 to 0.31 as cyclone strength increases by 50%, but does not vary systematically with WVP. It is suggested that the composite fields constitute useful diagnostics for evaluating the behavior of large-scale numerical models, and may provide insight into how precipitation and clouds in midlatitude cyclones respond under a changed climate.

Intercomparison of Mesoscale Model Simulations of the Daytime Valley Wind System

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (5) ◽  
pp. 1389-1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juerg Schmidli ◽  
Brian Billings ◽  
Fotini K. Chow ◽  
Stephan F. J. de Wekker ◽  
James Doyle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Time Shift ◽  
Wind System ◽  
Valley Wind ◽  
The Mean

Three-dimensional simulations of the daytime thermally induced valley wind system for an idealized valley–plain configuration, obtained from nine nonhydrostatic mesoscale models, are compared with special emphasis on the evolution of the along-valley wind. The models use the same initial and lateral boundary conditions, and standard parameterizations for turbulence, radiation, and land surface processes. The evolution of the mean along-valley wind (averaged over the valley cross section) is similar for all models, except for a time shift between individual models of up to 2 h and slight differences in the speed of the evolution. The analysis suggests that these differences are primarily due to differences in the simulated surface energy balance such as the dependence of the sensible heat flux on surface wind speed. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the evolution of the mean along-valley flow is largely independent of the choice of the dynamical core and of the turbulence parameterization scheme. The latter does, however, have a significant influence on the vertical structure of the boundary layer and of the along-valley wind. Thus, this ideal case may be useful for testing and evaluation of mesoscale numerical models with respect to land surface–atmosphere interactions and turbulence parameterizations.

scholarly journals Estimating a relationship between aerosol optical thickness and surface wind speed over the ocean

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 11621-11651 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Glantz ◽  
D. E. Nilsson ◽  
W. von Hoyningen-Huene
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Optical Thickness ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Sea Salt ◽  
Aerosol Optical Thickness ◽  
Marine Aerosols ◽  
Hygroscopic Growth ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. Retrieved aerosol optical thickness (AOT) based on data obtained by the Sea viewing Wide Field Sensor (SeaWiFS) is combined with surface wind speed, obtained at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWFs), over the North Pacific for September 2001. In this study a cloud screening approach is introduced in an attempt to exclude pixels partly or fully covered by clouds. The relatively broad swath width for which the nadir looking SeaWiFS instrument scanned over the North Pacific means that the AOT can be estimated according to relatively large range of wind speeds for each of the scenes analyzed. The sensitivity in AOT due to sea salt and hygroscopic growth of the marine aerosols has also been investigated. The validation of the results is based on previous parameterization in combination with the environmental quantities wind speed, RH and boundary layer height (BLH), estimated at the ECMWF. In this study a factor of 2 higher mean AOT is obtained for a wind speed up to about 13 m s−1 for September 2001 over remote ocean areas. Furthermore, a factor of 2 higher AOT is more or less supported by the validation of the results. Approximately, 50% of the enhancement seems to be due to hygroscopic growth of the marine aerosols and the remaining part due to increase in the sea salt particle mass concentrations, caused by a wind driven water vapor and sea salt flux, respectively. Reasonable agreement occurs also between satellites retrieved aerosol optical thickness and AOT observed at several AERONET (Aerosol Robotic NETwork) ground-based remote sensing stations. Finally, possible reasons why relatively large standard deviations occur around the mean values of AOT estimated for a single scene are discussed.

Downscaling of surface wind speed over the North Atlantic using conditional Generative Adversarial Networks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Krinitskiy ◽  
Svyatoslav Elizarov ◽  
Alexander Gavrikov ◽  
Sergey Gulev
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Generative Adversarial Networks ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
Computational Costs ◽  
The North ◽  
Adversarial Networks

<p>Accurate simulation of the physics of the Earth`s atmosphere involves solving partial differential equations with a number of closures handling subgrid processes. In some cases, the parameterizations may approximate the physics well. However, there is always room for improvement, which is often known to be computationally expensive. Thus, at the moment, modeling of the atmosphere is a theatre for a number of compromises between the accuracy of physics representation and its computational costs.</p><p>At the same time, some of the parameterizations are naturally empirical. They can be improved further based on the data-driven approach, which may provide increased approximation quality, given the same or even lower computational costs. In this perspective, a statistical model that learns a data distribution may deliver exceptional results. Recently, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) were shown to be a very flexible model type for approximating distributions of hidden representations in the case of two-dimensional visual scenes, a.k.a. images. The same approach may provide an opportunity for the data-driven approximation of subgrid processes in case of atmosphere modeling.</p><p>In our study, we present a novel approach for approximating subgrid processes based on conditional GANs. As proof of concept, we present the preliminary results of the downscaling of surface wind over the ocean in North Atlantic. We explore the potential of the presented approach in terms of speedup of the downscaling procedure compared to the dynamic simulations such as WRF model runs. We also study the potential of additional regularizations applied to improve the cGAN learning procedure as well as the resulting generalization ability and accuracy.</p>

scholarly journals Evidence for Two Distinct Modes of Large-Scale Ocean Circulation Changes over the Last Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihai Dima ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
The North ◽  
Symmetric Pattern ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract Through its nonlinear dynamics and involvement in past abrupt climate shifts the thermohaline circulation (THC) represents a key element for the understanding of rapid climate changes. The expected THC weakening under global warming is characterized by large uncertainties, and it is therefore of significant importance to identify ocean circulation changes over the last century. By applying various statistical techniques on two global sea surface temperature datasets two THC-related modes are separated. The first one involves relatively slow adjustment of the whole conveyor belt circulation and has an interhemispherically symmetric pattern. The second mode is associated with the relatively fast adjustment of the North Atlantic overturning cell and has the seesaw structure. Based on the separation of these two patterns the authors show that the global conveyor has been weakening since the late 1930s and that the North Atlantic overturning cell suffered an abrupt shift around 1970. The distinction between the two modes provides also a new frame for interpreting past abrupt climate changes.

scholarly journals Satellite Microwave Surface Observations in Tropical Cyclones

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (2) ◽  
pp. 421-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Quilfen ◽  
Bertrand Chapron ◽  
Jean Tournadre
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Microwave Measurements ◽  
Dual Frequency

Abstract Sea surface estimates of local winds, waves, and rain-rate conditions are crucial to complement infrared/visible satellite images in estimating the strength of tropical cyclones (TCs). Satellite measurements at microwave frequencies are thus key elements of present and future observing systems. Available for more than 20 years, passive microwave measurements are very valuable but still suffer from insufficient resolution and poor wind vector retrievals in the rainy conditions encountered in and around tropical cyclones. Scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar active microwave measurements performed at the C and Ku band on board the European Remote Sensing (ERS), the Meteorological Operational (MetOp), the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), the Environmental Satellite (Envisat), and RadarSat satellites can also be used to map the surface wind field in storms. Their accuracy is limited in the case of heavy rain and possible saturation of the microwave signals is reported. Altimeter dual-frequency measurements have also been shown to provide along-track information related to surface wind speed, wave height, and vertically integrated rain rate at about 6-km resolution. Although limited for operational use by their dimensional sampling, the dual-frequency capability makes altimeters a unique satellite-borne sensor to perform measurements of key surface parameters in a consistent way. To illustrate this capability two Jason-1 altimeter passes over Hurricanes Isabel and Wilma are examined. The area of maximum TC intensity, as described by the National Hurricane Center and by the altimeter, is compared for these two cases. Altimeter surface wind speed and rainfall-rate observations are further compared with measurements performed by other remote sensors, namely, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission instruments and the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.

scholarly journals Weak Tropical Cyclones Dominate the Poleward Migration of the Annual Mean Location of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones since 1980

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (17) ◽  
pp. 6873-6882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruifen Zhan ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
The Past ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Sst Warming

The poleward migration of the annual mean location of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) has been identified in the major TC basins of the globe over the past 30 years, which is particularly robust over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study has revealed that this poleward migration consists mainly of weak TCs (with maximum sustained surface wind speed less than 33 m s−1) over the WNP. Results show that the location of LMI of weak TCs has migrated about 1° latitude poleward per decade since 1980, while such a trend is considerably smaller for intense TCs. This is found to be linked to a significant decreasing trend of TC genesis in the southern WNP and a significant increasing trend in the northwestern WNP over the past 30 years. It is shown that the greater sea surface temperature (SST) warming at higher latitudes associated with global warming and its associated changes in the large-scale circulation favor more TCs to form in the northern WNP and fewer but stronger TCs to form in the southern WNP.

Effect of a Low-frequency Vortex on the Size of Typhoon Lan (2017)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengyuan Ma ◽  
Tim Li
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Radial Profile ◽  
Outer Region ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Set Up

AbstractTyphoon Lan (2017) was one of the largest tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific (WNP), and it was developed in a low-frequency (10-90-day filtered) large-scale cyclonic vortex environment. The physical mechanism responsible for the TC unusual size was investigated through idealized numerical experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivity experiments showed that the low-frequency cyclonic circulation played an important role in modulating the TC size through the following three processes. Firstly, it weakened the background vertical wind shear and provided a favorable condition for a more rapid growth of Lan. Secondly, it strengthened a vorticity aggregation process through enhanced background vorticity. As a result, a stronger and more organized TC core was quickly set up, which strengthened the TC intensity and expanded its size. Thirdly, it enhanced the total surface wind speed and surface latent heat flux, strengthening convective instability in the outer region through increased moisture. The development of the outer rain band expanded the radial profile of diabatic heating, leading to greater low-level inflow and tangential wind acceleration in the outer region and thus a large TC size.

Assessing reasons for skilful predictions of winter windstorms over the Atlantic/European region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Degenhardt ◽  
Gregor Leckebusch ◽  
Adam Scaife
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Skill Scores

<p>Severe Atlantic winter storms are affecting densely populated regions of Europe (e.g. UK, France, Germany, etc.). Consequently, different parts of the society, financial industry (e.g., insurance) and last but not least the general public are interested in skilful forecasts for the upcoming storm season (usually December to March). To allow for a best possible use of steadily improved seasonal forecasts, the understanding which factors contribute to realise forecast skill is essential and will allow for an assessment whether to expect a forecast to be skilful or not.</p><p>This study analyses the predictability of the seasonal forecast model of the UK MetOffice, the GloSea5. Windstorm events are identified and tracked following Leckebusch et al. (2008) via the exceedance of the 98<sup>th</sup> percentile of the near surface wind speed.</p><p>Seasonal predictability of windstorm frequency in comparison to observations (based e.g., on ERA5 reanalysis) are calculated and different statistical methods (skill scores) are compared.</p><p>Large scale patterns (e.g., NAO, AO, EAWR, etc.) and dynamical factors (e.g., Eady Growth Rate) are analysed and their predictability is assessed in comparison to storm frequency forecast skill. This will lead to an idea how the forecast skill of windstorms is depending on the forecast skill of forcing factors conditional to the phase of large-scale variability modes. Thus, we deduce information, which factors are most important to generate seasonal forecast skill for severe extra-tropical windstorms.</p><p>The results can be used to get a better understanding of the resulting skill for the upcoming windstorm season.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An Analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and Two CMIP5 Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2345-2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
James F. Booth ◽  
Catherine M. Naud ◽  
Jeff Willison
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Convection Scheme ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

The representation of extratropical cyclone (ETC) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim (ERAI), GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km-resolution WRF Model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with the GISS model generating the most, followed by ERAI and then the GFDL model. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC’s life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

scholarly journals Moisture Origin and Meridional Transport in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Association with Multiple Cyclones*

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (8) ◽  
pp. 2850-2868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Sodemann ◽  
Andreas Stohl
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract During December 2006 many cyclones traveled across the North Atlantic, causing temperature and precipitation in Norway to be well above average. Large excursions of high vertically integrated water vapor, often referred to as atmospheric rivers, reached from the subtropics to high latitudes, inducing precipitation over western Scandinavia. The sources and transport of atmospheric water vapor in the North Atlantic storm track during that month are examined by means of a mesoscale model fitted with water vapor tracers. Decomposition of the modeled total water vapor field into numerical water vapor tracers tagged by evaporation latitude shows that when an atmospheric river was present, a higher fraction of water vapor from remote, southerly source regions caused more intense precipitation. The tracer transport analysis revealed that the atmospheric rivers were composed of a sequence of meridional excursions of water vapor, in close correspondence with the upper-level flow configuration. In cyclone cores, fast turnover of water vapor by evaporation and condensation were identified, leading to a rapid assimilation of water from the underlying ocean surface. In the regions of long-range transport, water vapor tracers from the southern midlatitudes and subtropics dominated over local contributions. By advection of water vapor along their trailing cold fronts cyclones were reinforcing the atmospheric rivers. At the same time the warm conveyor belt circulation was feeding off the atmospheric rivers by large-scale ascent and precipitation. Pronounced atmospheric rivers could persist in the domain throughout more than one cyclone's life cycle. These findings emphasize the interrelation between midlatitude cyclones and atmospheric rivers but also their distinction from the warm conveyor belt airstream.

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