scholarly journals Realistic Initialization of Land Surface States: Impacts on Subseasonal Forecast Skill

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1049-1063 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Ping Liu ◽  
Urszula Jambor ◽  
Aaron Berg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Surface States ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract Forcing a land surface model (LSM) offline with realistic global fields of precipitation, radiation, and near-surface meteorology produces realistic fields (within the context of the LSM) of soil moisture, temperature, and other land surface states. These fields can be used as initial conditions for precipitation and temperature forecasts with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Their usefulness is tested in this regard by performing retrospective 1-month forecasts (for May through September, 1979–93) with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) seasonal prediction system. The 75 separate forecasts provide an adequate statistical basis for quantifying improvements in forecast skill associated with land initialization. Evaluation of skill is focused on the Great Plains of North America, a region with both a reliable land initialization and an ability of soil moisture conditions to overwhelm atmospheric chaos in the evolution of the meteorological fields. The land initialization does cause a small but statistically significant improvement in precipitation and air temperature forecasts in this region. For precipitation, the increases in forecast skill appear strongest in May through July, whereas for air temperature, they are largest in August and September. The joint initialization of land and atmospheric variables is considered in a supplemental series of ensemble monthly forecasts. Potential predictability from atmospheric initialization dominates over that from land initialization during the first 2 weeks of the forecast, whereas during the final 2 weeks, the relative contributions from the two sources are of the same order. Both land and atmospheric initialization contribute independently to the actual skill of the monthly temperature forecast, with the greatest skill derived from the initialization of both. Land initialization appears to contribute the most to monthly precipitation forecast skill.

scholarly journals Application of the Land–Atmosphere Coupling Paradigm to the Operational Coupled Forecast System, Version 2 (CFSv2)

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Dirmeyer ◽  
Subhadeep Halder
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Surface States ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract Retrospective forecasts from CFSv2 are evaluated in terms of three elements of land–atmosphere coupling at subseasonal to seasonal time scales: sensitivity of the atmosphere to variations in land surface states, the magnitude of variability of land states and fluxes, and the memory or persistence of land surface anomalies. The Northern Hemisphere spring and summer seasons are considered for the period 1982–2009. Ensembles are constructed from all available pairings of initial land and atmosphere/ocean states taken from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis at the start of April, May, and June among the 28 years, so that the effect of initial land states on the evolving forecasts can be assessed. Finally, improvement and continuance of forecast skill derived from accurate land surface initialization is related to the three coupling elements. It is found that soil moisture memory is the most broadly important element for significant improvement of realistic land initialization on forecast skill. However, coupling strength manifested through the elements of sensitivity and variability are necessary to realize the potential predictability provided by memory of initial land surface anomalies. Even though there is clear responsiveness of surface heat fluxes, near-surface temperature, humidity, and daytime boundary layer development to variations in soil moisture over much of the globe, precipitation in CFSv2 is unresponsive. Failure to realize potential predictability from land surface states could be due to unfavorable atmospheric stability or circulation states; poor quality of what is considered realistic soil moisture analyses; and errors in the land surface model, atmospheric model, or their coupled interaction.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Comparison of Noah and Pleim–Xiu Land Surface Models in MM5 Using GÖTE2001 Data: Spatial and Temporal Variations in Near-Surface Air Temperature

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1587-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
J-F. Miao ◽  
D. Chen ◽  
K. Borne
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization ◽  
Evident Difference

Abstract In this study, the performance of two advanced land surface models (LSMs; Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM) coupled with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), version 3.7.2, in simulating the near-surface air temperature in the greater Göteborg area in Sweden is evaluated and compared using the GÖTE2001 field campaign data. Further, the effects of different planetary boundary layer schemes [Eta and Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBLs] for Noah LSM and soil moisture initialization approaches for Pleim–Xiu LSM are investigated. The investigation focuses on the evaluation and comparison of diurnal cycle intensity and maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the urban heat island during the daytime and nighttime under the clear-sky and cloudy/rainy weather conditions for different experimental schemes. The results indicate that 1) there is an evident difference between Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM in simulating the near-surface air temperature, especially in the modeled urban heat island; 2) there is no evident difference in the model performance between the Eta PBL and MRF PBL coupled with the Noah LSM; and 3) soil moisture initialization is of crucial importance for model performance in the Pleim–Xiu LSM. In addition, owing to the recent release of MM5, version 3.7.3, some experiments done with version 3.7.2 were repeated to reveal the effects of the modifications in the Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM. The modification to longwave radiation parameterizations in Noah LSM significantly improves model performance while the adjustment of emissivity, one of the vegetation properties, affects Pleim–Xiu LSM performance to a larger extent. The study suggests that improvements both in Noah LSM physics and in Pleim–Xiu LSM initialization of soil moisture and parameterization of vegetation properties are important.

scholarly journals Combined Assimilation of Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture: A Case Study Using TRMM and SMOS Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (12) ◽  
pp. 4997-5014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liao-Fan Lin ◽  
Ardeshir M. Ebtehaj ◽  
Alejandro N. Flores ◽  
Satish Bastola ◽  
Rafael L. Bras
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
Soil Moisture Data ◽  
Mean Square Errors

This paper presents a framework that enables simultaneous assimilation of satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Noah land surface model through variational approaches. The authors tested the framework by assimilating precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The results show that assimilation of both TRMM and SMOS data can effectively improve the forecast skills of precipitation, top 10-cm soil moisture, and 2-m temperature and specific humidity. Within a 2-day time window, impacts of precipitation data assimilation on the forecasts remain relatively constant for forecast lead times greater than 6 h, while the influence of soil moisture data assimilation increases with lead time. The study also demonstrates that the forecast skill of precipitation, soil moisture, and near-surface temperature and humidity are further improved when both the TRMM and SMOS data are assimilated. In particular, the combined data assimilation reduces the prediction biases and root-mean-square errors, respectively, by 57% and 6% (for precipitation); 73% and 27% (for soil moisture); 17% and 9% (for 2-m temperature); and 33% and 11% (for 2-m specific humidity).

scholarly journals Developing a drought-monitoring index for the contiguous US using SMAP

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 6611-6626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Sadri ◽  
Eric F. Wood ◽  
Ming Pan
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Surface Soil ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Surface Soil Moisture ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Index Maps

Abstract. Since April 2015, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has monitored near-surface soil moisture, mapping the globe (between 85.044∘ N/S) using an L-band (1.4 GHz) microwave radiometer in 2–3 days depending on location. Of particular interest to SMAP-based agricultural applications is a monitoring product that assesses the SMAP near-surface soil moisture in terms of probability percentiles for dry and wet conditions. However, the short SMAP record length poses a statistical challenge for meaningful assessment of its indices. This study presents initial insights about using SMAP for monitoring drought and pluvial regions with a first application over the contiguous United States (CONUS). SMAP soil moisture data from April 2015 to December 2017 at both near-surface (5 cm) SPL3SMP, or Level 3, at ∼36 km resolution, and root-zone SPL4SMAU, or Level 4, at ∼9 km resolution, were fitted to beta distributions and were used to construct probability distributions for warm (May–October) and cold (November–April) seasons. To assess the data adequacy and have confidence in using short-term SMAP for a drought index estimate, we analyzed individual grids by defining two filters and a combination of them, which could separate the 5815 grids covering CONUS into passed and failed grids. The two filters were (1) the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test for beta-fitted long-term and the short-term variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model (LSM) with 95 % confidence and (2) good correlation (≥0.4) between beta-fitted VIC and beta-fitted SPL3SMP. To evaluate which filter is the best, we defined a mean distance (MD) metric, assuming a VIC index at 36 km resolution as the ground truth. For both warm and cold seasons, the union of the filters – which also gives the best coverage of the grids throughout CONUS – was chosen to be the most reliable filter. We visually compared our SMAP-based drought index maps with metrics such as the U.S. Drought Monitor (from D0–D4), 1-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and near-surface VIC from Princeton University. The root-zone drought index maps were shown to be similar to those produced by the root-zone VIC, 3-month SPI, and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). This study is a step forward towards building a national and international soil moisture monitoring system without which quantitative measures of drought and pluvial conditions will remain difficult to judge.

Evaluation of the Noah Land Surface Model Using Data from a Fair-Weather IHOP_2002 Day with Heterogeneous Surface Fluxes

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (12) ◽  
pp. 4915-4941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret A. LeMone ◽  
Mukul Tewari ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Joseph G. Alfieri ◽  
Dev Niyogi
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Minor Effect ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Vegetation Fraction ◽  
A Value ◽  
Green Vegetation ◽  
Noah Land Surface Model

Abstract Sources of differences between observations and simulations for a case study using the Noah land surface model–based High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) are examined for sensible and latent heat fluxes H and LE, respectively; surface temperature Ts; and vertical temperature difference T0 − Ts, where T0 is at 2 m. The observational data were collected on 29 May 2002, using the University of Wyoming King Air and four surface towers placed along a sparsely vegetated 60-km north–south flight track in the Oklahoma Panhandle. This day had nearly clear skies and a strong north–south soil-moisture gradient, with wet soils and widespread puddles at the south end of the track and drier soils to the north. Relative amplitudes of H and LE horizontal variation were estimated by taking the slope of the least squares best-fit straight line ΔLE/ΔH on plots of time-averaged LE as a function of time-averaged H for values along the track. It is argued that observed H and LE values departing significantly from their slope line are not associated with surface processes and, hence, need not be replicated by HRLDAS. Reasonable agreement between HRLDAS results and observed data was found only after adjusting the coefficient C in the Zilitinkevich equation relating the roughness lengths for momentum and heat in HRLDAS from its default value of 0.1 to a new value of 0.5. Using C = 0.1 and adjusting soil moisture to match the observed near-surface values increased horizontal variability in the right sense, raising LE and lowering H over the moist south end. However, both the magnitude of H and the amplitude of its horizontal variability relative to LE remained too large; adjustment of the green vegetation fraction had only a minor effect. With C = 0.5, model-input green vegetation fraction, and our best-estimate soil moisture, H, LE, ΔLE/ΔH, and T0 − Ts, were all close to observed values. The remaining inconsistency between model and observations—too high a value of H and too low a value of LE over the wet southern end of the track—could be due to HRLDAS ignoring the effect of open water. Neglecting the effect of moist soils on the albedo could also have contributed.

scholarly journals Improved Hydrological Simulation Using SMAP Data: Relative Impacts of Model Calibration and Data Assimilation

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 727-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Qing Liu ◽  
Sarith P. P. Mahanama ◽  
Rolf H. Reichle
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Satellite Mission ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract The assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture information into a land surface model has been shown in past studies to contribute accuracy to the simulated hydrological variables. Remotely sensed data, however, can also be used to improve the model itself through the calibration of the model’s parameters, and this can also increase the accuracy of model products. Here, data provided by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission are applied to the land surface component of the NASA GEOS Earth system model using both data assimilation and model calibration in order to quantify the relative degrees to which each strategy improves the estimation of near-surface soil moisture and streamflow. The two approaches show significant complementarity in their ability to extract useful information from the SMAP data record. Data assimilation reduces the ubRMSE (the RMSE after removing the long-term bias) of soil moisture estimates and improves the timing of streamflow variations, whereas model calibration reduces the model biases in both soil moisture and streamflow. While both approaches lead to an improved timing of simulated soil moisture, these contributions are largely independent; joint use of both approaches provides the highest soil moisture simulation accuracy.

Impacts of Soil Heating Condition on Precipitation Simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (7) ◽  
pp. 2263-2285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingang Fan
Keyword(s):  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Heating Condition ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Thermal Fields ◽  
Soil Temperatures

Soil temperature is a major variable in land surface models, representing soil energy status, storage, and transfer. It serves as an important factor indicating the underlying surface heating condition for weather and climate forecasts. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impacts of changes to the surface heating condition, derived from soil temperature observations, on regional weather simulations. Large cold biases are found in the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis project (ERA-40) soil temperatures as compared to observations. At the same time, a warm bias is found in the lower boundary assumption adopted by the Noah land surface model. In six heavy rain cases studied herein, observed soil temperatures are used to initialize the land surface model and to provide a lower boundary condition at the bottom of the model soil layer. By analyzing the impacts from the incorporation of observed soil temperatures, the following major conclusions are drawn: 1) A consistent increase in the ground heat flux is found during the day, when the observed soil temperatures are used to correct the cold bias present in ERA-40. Soil temperature changes introduced at the initial time maintain positive values but gradually decrease in magnitude with time. Sensible and latent heat fluxes and the moisture flux experience an increase during the first 6 h. 2) An increase in soil temperature impacts the air temperature through surface exchange, and near-surface moisture through evaporation. During the first two days, an increase in air temperature is seen across the region from the surface up to about 800 hPa (∼1450 m). The maximum near-surface air temperature increase is found to be, averaged over all cases, 0.5 K on the first day and 0.3 K on the second day. 3) The strength of the low-level jet is affected by the changes described above and also by the consequent changes in horizontal gradients of pressure and thermal fields. Thus, the three-dimensional circulation is affected, in addition to changes seen in the humidity and thermal fields and the locations and intensities of precipitating systems. 4) Overall results indicate that the incorporation of observed soil temperatures introduces a persistent soil heating condition that is favorable to convective development and, consequently, improves the simulation of precipitation.

scholarly journals Effect of Human-Induced Land Disturbance on Subseasonal Predictability of Near-Surface Variables Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Tomohito J. Yamada ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Land Disturbance ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation

Irrigation can affect climate and weather patterns from regional to global scales through the alteration of surface water and energy balances. Here, we couple a land-surface model (LSM) that includes various human land-water management activities including irrigation with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to examine the impacts of irrigation-induced land disturbance on the subseasonal predictability of near-surface variables. Results indicate that the simulated global irrigation and groundwater withdrawals (circa 2000) are ~3600 and ~370 km3/year, respectively, which are in good agreement with previous estimates from country statistics and offline–LSMs. Subseasonal predictions for boreal summers during the 1986–1995 period suggest that the spread among ensemble simulations of air temperature can be substantially reduced by using realistic land initializations considering irrigation-induced changes in soil moisture. Additionally, it is found that the subseasonal forecast skill for near-surface temperature and sea level pressure significantly improves when human-induced land disturbance is accounted for in the AGCM. These results underscore the need to incorporate irrigation into weather forecast models, such as the global forecast system.

scholarly journals Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: A Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 300-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annette L. Hirsch ◽  
Jatin Kala ◽  
Andy J. Pitman ◽  
Claire Carouge ◽  
Jason P. Evans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Surface States ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Relative Gains

Abstract The authors use a sophisticated coupled land–atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%–20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia.

scholarly journals The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 805-822 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. Koster ◽  
S. P. P. Mahanama ◽  
T. J. Yamada ◽  
Gianpaolo Balsamo ◽  
A. A. Berg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization ◽  
Coupling Experiment

Abstract The second phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel “consensus” skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document