Impacts of Assimilating Measurements of Different State Variables with a Simulated Supercell Storm and Three-Dimensional Variational Method

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (8) ◽  
pp. 2759-2777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqing Ge ◽  
Jidong Gao ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analysis Quality

Abstract This paper investigates the impacts of assimilating measurements of different state variables, which can be potentially available from various observational platforms, on the cycled analysis and short-range forecast of supercell thunderstorms by performing a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using a storm-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) method. The control experiments assimilate measurements every 5 min for 90 min. It is found that the assimilation of horizontal wind can reconstruct the storm structure rather accurately. The assimilation of vertical velocity , potential temperature , or water vapor can partially rebuild the thermodynamic and precipitation fields but poorly retrieves the wind fields. The assimilation of rainwater mixing ratio can build up the precipitation fields together with a reasonable cold pool but is unable to properly recover the wind fields. Overall, data have the greatest impact, while have the second largest impact. The impact of is the smallest. The impact of assimilation frequency is examined by comparing results using 1-, 5-, or 10-min assimilation intervals. When is assimilated every 5 or 10 min, the analysis quality can be further improved by the incorporation of additional types of observations. When are assimilated every minute, the benefit from additional types of observations is negligible, except for . It is also found that for , , and measurements, more frequent assimilation leads to more accurate analyses. For and , a 1-min assimilation interval does not produce a better analysis than a 5-min interval.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covariance Localization for Radar Data on EnKF Analyses of a Developing MCS: Observing System Simulation Experiments

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (11) ◽  
pp. 3691-3709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan A. Sobash ◽  
David J. Stensrud
Keyword(s):  
System Simulation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Convective System ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Length Scales ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Prior State

Abstract Several observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were performed to assess the impact of covariance localization of radar data on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses of a developing convective system. Simulated Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) observations were extracted from a truth simulation and assimilated into experiments with localization cutoff choices of 6, 12, and 18 km in the horizontal and 3, 6, and 12 km in the vertical. Overall, increasing the horizontal localization and decreasing the vertical localization produced analyses with the smallest RMSE for most of the state variables. The convective mode of the analyzed system had an impact on the localization results. During cell mergers, larger horizontal localization improved the results. Prior state correlations between the observations and state variables were used to construct reverse cumulative density functions (RCDFs) to identify the correlation length scales for various observation-state pairs. The OSSE with the smallest RMSE employed localization cutoff values that were similar to the horizontal and vertical length scales of the prior state correlations, especially for observation-state correlations above 0.6. Vertical correlations were restricted to state points closer to the observations than in the horizontal, as determined by the RCDFs. Further, the microphysical state variables were correlated with the reflectivity observations on smaller scales than the three-dimensional wind field and radial velocity observations. The ramifications of these findings on localization choices in convective-scale EnKF experiments that assimilate radar data are discussed.

Observing System Simulation Experiments Investigating Atmospheric Motion Vectors and Radiances from a Constellation of 4-5 μm Infrared Sounders

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Will McCarty ◽  
David Carvalho ◽  
Isaac Moradi ◽  
Nikki C. Privé
Keyword(s):  
System Simulation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Absorption ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors

AbstractA set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) was performed to investigate the utility of a constellation of passive infrared spectrometers, strategically designed with the aim of deriving the three-dimensional retrievals of the horizontal wind via atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from instruments with the spectral resolution of an infrared sounder. The instrument and constellation designs were performed in the context of the Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and humidity in a Constellation for Winds, or MISTiC Winds. The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office OSSE system, which includes a full suite of operational meteorological observations, served as the control. To illustrate the potential impact of this observing strategy, two experiments were performed by adding the new simulated observations to the control. First, perfect (error-free) simulated AMVs and radiances were assimilated. Second, the data were made imperfect by adding realistic modeled errors to the AMVs and radiances that were assimilated.The experimentation showed beneficial impacts on both the mass and wind fields, as based on analysis verification, forecast verification, and the assessment of the observations using the Forecast Sensitivity to Observation Impact (FSOI) metric. In all variables and metrics, the impacts of the imperfect observations were smaller than those of the perfect observations, though much of the positive benefit was retained. The FSOI metric illustrated two key points. First, the largest impacts were seen in the middle troposphere AMVs, which is a targeted capability of the constellation strategy. Second, the addition of modeled errors showed that the assimilation system was unable to fully exploit the 4.3 μm carbon dioxide absorption radiances.

Improved impacts in observing system simulation experiments of radio occultation observations as a result of model and data assimilation changes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. CUCURULL ◽  
S. P. F. CASEY
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forward Operator

AbstractAs global data assimilation systems continue to evolve, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) need to be updated to accurately quantify the impact of proposed observing technologies in weather forecasting. Earlier OSSEs with radio occultation (RO) observations have been updated and the impact of the originally proposed Constellation Observing Satellites for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) mission, with a high-inclination and low-inclination component, has been investigated by using the operational data assimilation system at NOAA and a 1-dimensional bending angle RO forward operator. It is found that the impact of the low-inclination component of the originally planned COSMIC-2 mission (now officially named COSMIC-2) has significantly increased as compared to earlier studies, and significant positive impact is now found globally in terms of mass and wind fields. These are encouraging results as COSMIC-2 was successfully launched in June 2019 and data have been recently released to operational weather centers. Earlier findings remain valid indicating that globally distributed RO observations are more important to improve weather prediction globally than a denser sampling of the tropical latitudes. Overall, the benefits reported here from assimilating RO soundings are much more significant than the impacts found in previous OSSEs. This is largely attributed to changes in the data assimilation and forecast system and less to the more advanced 1-dimensional forward operator chosen for the assimilation of RO observations.

An Analysis of Alternatives for the COSMIC-2 Constellation in the Context of Global Observing System Simulation Experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Cucurull ◽  
M. J. Mueller
Keyword(s):  
System Simulation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were conducted to evaluate the potential impact of the six Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) receiver satellites in equatorial orbit from the initially proposed Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2) mission, known as COSMIC-2A. Furthermore, the added value of the high-inclination component of the proposed mission was investigated by considering a few alternative architecture designs, including the originally proposed polar constellation of six satellites (COSMIC-2B), a constellation with a reduced number of RO receiving satellites, and a constellation of six satellites but with fewer observations in the lower troposphere. The 2015 year version of the operational three-dimensional ensemble–variational data assimilation system of the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) was used to run the OSSEs. Observations were simulated and assimilated using the same methodology and their errors assumed uncorrelated. The largest benefit from the assimilation of COSMIC-2A, with denser equatorial coverage, was to improve tropical winds, and its impact was found to be overall neutral in the extratropics. When soundings from the high-inclination orbit were assimilated in addition to COSMIC-2A, positive benefits were found globally, confirming that a high-inclination orbit constellation of RO receiving satellites is necessary to improve weather forecast skill globally. The largest impact from reducing COSMIC-2B from six to four satellites was to slightly degrade weather forecast skill in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The impact of degrading COSMIC-2B to the COSMIC level of accuracy, in terms of penetration into the lower troposphere, was mostly neutral.

A Supercell Storm Simulation Using a Nonhydrostatic Cloud-Resolving Model Based on a Hybrid Isentropic-Sigma Vertical Coordinate

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
pp. 1204-1215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Toy
Keyword(s):  
Mass Flux ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Implicit Time ◽  
Vertical Coordinate ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Coordinate Model ◽  
Isentropic Coordinates

Abstract A three-dimensional simulation of a supercell storm is performed with a nonhydrostatic model based on a hybrid isentropic-sigma vertical coordinate. The coordinate is a terrain-following, height-based coordinate near the surface that smoothly transitions to potential temperature with height. Using isentropic coordinates provides the advantage of having zero cross-coordinate vertical mass flux for adiabatic flow, which virtually eliminates the numerical error in the vertical transport. The model uses an adaptive grid algorithm by which the coordinate surfaces may deviate from their target isentropes to maintain a sufficiently smooth mesh, while allowing the turbulence and vertical motion associated with convection to develop. The storm simulated by the hybrid-coordinate model compares well with simulations by Eulerian-coordinate models, but with the key difference being that the cross-coordinate mass flux is significantly smaller in much of the domain with the hybrid-coordinate model. A semi-implicit time-differencing scheme for numerically stabilizing vertically propagating acoustic modes in isentropic coordinates is also presented in the paper.

Cold pool driven convective initiation: How can we improve its representation in km-scale models?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjam Hirt ◽  
George Craig
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Gust Fronts ◽  
Gust Front

<p>Cold pools are essential for organizing convection and play a particular role in convective initiation in the afternoon and evening. Both aspects are deficient in current convection-permitting models and a better representation of cold pools is likely necessary to overcome these deficiencies. In a recent investigation, we identified several sensitivities of cold pool driven convective initiation to model resolution within hectometer simulations. In particular, a causal graph analysis has revealed that the dominant impact of model resolution on convective initiation is due to too weak gust front vertical velocities. This implies that cold pool gust fronts in km-scale models are too weak to trigger sufficient new convection.</p><p>To address this deficiency, we develop a parameterization for the convection-permitting COSMO model to improve the representation of cold pool gust fronts. We use the potential temperature gradient to identify cold pool gust fronts and enhance vertical wind tendencies within these gust front regions.  Also, we perturb horizontal wind tendencies to yield 3d non-divergent perturbations.  This parameterization strengthens gust front circulations and thereby enhances cold pool driven convective initiation. Consequently, precipitation is amplified and becomes more organized in the afternoon and evening. This improves the diurnal cycle of precipitation and also has some positive impact on the spatial distribution as quantified by the fraction skill score. Furthermore, cold pools themselves are strengthened, which can further enhance the gust front circulations, giving rise to a feedback loop. </p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Spatial Variations of Low-Level Stability on the Life Cycle of a Simulated Supercell Storm

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (5) ◽  
pp. 1738-1766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conrad L. Ziegler ◽  
Edward R. Mansell ◽  
Jerry M. Straka ◽  
Donald R. MacGorman ◽  
Donald W. Burgess
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Ambient Flow ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Inversion Region ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Outflow Boundary ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study reports on the dynamical evolution of simulated, long-lived right-moving supercell storms in a high-CAPE, strongly sheared mesoscale environment, which initiate in a weakly capped region and subsequently move into a cold boundary layer (BL) and inversion region before dissipating. The storm simulations realistically approximate the main morphological features and evolution of the 22 May 1981 Binger, Oklahoma, supercell storm by employing time-varying inflow lateral boundary conditions for the storm-relative moving grid, which in turn are prescribed from a parent, fixed steady-state mesoscale analysis to approximate the observed inversion region to the east of the dryline on that day. A series of full life cycle storm simulations have been performed in which the magnitude of boundary layer coldness and the convective inhibition are varied to examine the ability of the storm to regenerate and sustain its main updraft as it moves into environments with increasing convective stability. The analysis of the simulations employs an empirical expression for the theoretical speed of the right-forward-flank outflow boundary relative to the ambient, low-level storm inflow that is consistent with simulated cold-pool boundary movement. The theoretical outflow boundary speed in the direction opposite to the ambient flow increases with an increasing cold-pool temperature deficit relative to the ambient BL temperature, and it decreases as ambient wind speed increases. The right-moving, classic (CL) phase of the simulated supercells is supported by increasing precipitation content and a stronger cold pool, which increases the right-moving cold-pool boundary speed against the constant ambient BL winds. The subsequent decrease of the ambient BL temperature with eastward storm movement decreases the cold-pool temperature deficit and reduces the outflow boundary speed against the ambient winds, progressing through a state of stagnation to an ultimate retrogression of the outflow boundary in the direction of the ambient flow. Onset of a transient, left-moving low-precipitation (LP) phase is initiated as the storm redevelops on the retrograding outflow boundary. The left-moving LP storm induces compensating downward motions in the inversion layer that desiccates the inflow, elevates the cloudy updraft parcel level of free convection (LFC), and leads to the final storm decay. The results demonstrate that inversion-region simulations support isolated, long-lived supercells. Both the degree of stratification and the coldness of the ambient BL regulate the cold-pool intensity and the strength and capacity of the outflow boundary to lift BL air through the LFC and thus regenerate convection, resulting in variation of supercell duration in the inversion region of approximately 1–2 h. In contrast, horizontally homogeneous conditions lacking an inversion region result in the development of secondary convection from the initial isolated supercell, followed by rapid upscale growth after 3 h to form a long-lived mesoscale convective system.

scholarly journals Contributions of Surface Sensible Heat Fluxes to Tropical Cyclone. Part I: Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 120-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanhong Ma ◽  
Jianfang Fei ◽  
Xiaogang Huang ◽  
Xiaoping Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Great Sensitivity ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The contributions of surface sensible heat fluxes (SHX) to the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure are examined in this study by conducting cloud-resolving simulations. Results suggest that although the peak values of SHX could account for nearly 30% of those of the total surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, the impact of SHX on TC intensification is nonetheless not distinct. However, the TC size shows great sensitivity to the SHX that the storm is shrunk by over 20% after removing the SHX. A potential temperature budget analysis indicates that the adiabatic cooling accompanying the radial inflow is largely balanced by the transfer of sensible heat fluxes rather than the entrainment of subsiding air from aloft. If there is upward transfer of SHX from underlying ocean so that the near-surface potential temperature decreases upward, the SHX will play a vital role; instead, if the upward SHX are absent so that the potential temperature increases upward near the surface, the downward sensible heat fluxes become the dominant contributor to warm the inflow air. The changes in TC size are found to be primarily caused by the rainband activities. The SHX help maintain high convective available potential energy as well as the cold pool feature outside the eyewall, thus being crucial for the growth of outer rainbands. If without upward transport of SHX, the outer-rainband activities could be largely suppressed, thereby leading to a decrease of the TC size.

scholarly journals Accelerating the EnKF Spinup for Typhoon Assimilation and Prediction

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 878-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu-Chih Yang ◽  
Eugenia Kalnay ◽  
Takemasa Miyoshi
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analysis Quality

Abstract A mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for a regional model is often initialized from global analysis products and with initial ensemble perturbations constructed based on the background error covariance used in the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) system. Because of the lack of proper mesoscale information, a long spinup period of typically a few days is required for the regional EnKF to reach its asymptotic level of accuracy, and thus, the impact of observations is limited during the EnKF spinup. For the case of typhoon assimilation, such spinup usually corresponds to the stages of generation and development of tropical cyclones, when observations are important but limited over open waters. To improve the analysis quality during the spinup, the “running in place” (RIP) method is implemented within the framework of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Results from observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) for a specific typhoon show that the RIP method is able to accelerate the analysis adjustment of the dynamical structures of the typhoon during the LETKF spinup, and improves both the accuracy of the mean state and the structure of the ensemble-based error covariance. These advantages of the RIP method are found not only in the inner-core structure of the typhoon but also identified in the environmental conditions. As a result, the LETKF-RIP analysis leads to better typhoon prediction, particularly in terms of both track and intensity.

Unusually Long Duration, Multiple-Doppler Radar Observations of a Front in a Convective Boundary Layer

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Stonitsch ◽  
Paul M. Markowski
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Density Gradient ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Horizontal Wind ◽  
Normal Density ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Convective Boundary ◽  
Convection Initiation

Abstract Dual-Doppler observations acquired by a network of mobile radars deployed in the Oklahoma panhandle on 3 June 2002 are used to document the kinematic structure and evolution of a front. The data were collected during the International H2O Project on a mission to study the initiation of deep convection. Synchronized scanning allowed for the synthesis of three-dimensional wind fields for nearly 5.5 h of the 1557–0000 UTC period. The front initially moved southward as a cold front, stalled, and later retreated northward as a warm front. Deep convection failed to be initiated along the front. In situ thermodynamic measurements obtained by a mobile mesonet were used to document changes in the density gradient at the surface. This paper examines the relationships among the changes in baroclinity, the thermally direct frontal circulation, updraft intensity, alongfront updraft variability, and the intensity of vortices along the front. Increases in the front-normal density gradient tended to be associated with increases in the thermally direct frontal circulation, as expected. Increases in the front-normal density gradient were also associated with an increase in the tilt of the frontal updraft as well as an increase in the contiguity of the updraft along the front, termed the “slabularity.” During periods when the front-normal density gradient and associated thermally direct frontal circulation were weak, the kinematic fields were dominated by boundary layer convection and the slabularity of the front was reduced. Intensification of the front-normal density gradient was accompanied by an increase in the horizontal wind shear and the intensity of vortices that were observed along the front. The vortices modulated the vertical velocity field along the front and therefore the slabularity, too. Thus, although the slabularity was a strong function of the strength of the thermally direct frontal circulation, the slabularity appeared to be modified by vortices in complex ways. Possible implications of the observations for convection initiation are also discussed, particularly with respect to updraft tilt and slabularity.

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