scholarly journals Seasonal Variations in Severe Weather Forecast Skill in an Experimental Convection-Allowing Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1885-1902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan A. Sobash ◽  
John S. Kain
Keyword(s):  
Warm Season ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Limited Sample ◽  
Seasonal Behavior ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
Convective Weather ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

Abstract Eight years of daily, experimental, deterministic, convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts, produced by the National Severe Storms Laboratory, were evaluated to assess their ability at predicting severe weather hazards over a diverse collection of seasons, regions, and environments. To do so, forecasts of severe weather hazards were produced and verified as in previous studies using CAM output, namely by thresholding the updraft helicity (UH) field, smoothing the resulting binary field to create surrogate severe probability forecasts (SSPFs), and verifying the SSPFs against observed storm reports. SSPFs were most skillful during the spring and fall, with a relative minimum in skill observed during the summer. SSPF skill during the winter months was more variable than during other seasons, partly due to the limited sample size of events, but was often less than that during the warm season. The seasonal behavior of SSPF skill was partly driven by the relationship between the UH threshold and the likelihood of obtaining severe storm reports. Varying UH thresholds by season and region produced SSPFs that were more skillful than using a fixed UH threshold to identify severe convection. Accounting for this variability was most important during the cool season, when a lower UH threshold produced larger SSPF skill compared to warm-season events, and during the summer, when large differences in skill occurred within different parts of the continental United States (CONUS), depending on the choice of UH threshold. This relationship between UH threshold and SSPF skill is discussed within the larger scope of generating skillful CAM-based guidance for hazardous convective weather and verifying CAM predictions.

Partnering Research, Education, and Operations via a Cool Season Severe Weather Soundings Program

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith D. Sherburn ◽  
Matthew D. Parker ◽  
Casey E. Davenport ◽  
Richard A. Sirico ◽  
Jonathan L. Blaes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
High Shear ◽  
Potential Utility ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Case Examples ◽  
Research Education ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
Student Volunteers

AbstractRecent research has improved our knowledge and forecasting of high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) severe convection, which produces a large fraction of overnight and cool season tornadoes. However, limited near-storm observations have hindered progress in our understanding of HSLC environments and detection of severe potential within them. This article provides an overview of a research project in central North Carolina aimed toward increasing the number of observations in the vicinity of severe and nonsevere HSLC convection. Particularly unique aspects of this project are a) leadership by student volunteers from a university sounding club and b) real-time communication of observations to local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. In addition to an overview of sounding operations and goals, two case examples are provided that support the potential utility of supplemental sounding observations for operational, educational, and research purposes.

An Hourly Climatology of Operational MRMS MESH-Diagnosed Severe and Significant Hail with Comparisons to Storm Data Hail Reports

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan A. Wendt ◽  
Israel L. Jirak
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Real Time Monitoring ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Convective Weather ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractThe multi-radar/multi-sensor (MRMS) system generates an operational suite of derived products in the NationalWeather Service useful for real-time monitoring of severe convective weather. One such product generated byMRMSis the maximum estimated size of hail (MESH) that estimates hail size based on the radar reflectivity properties of a storm above the environmental 0 °C level. The MRMS MESH product is commonly used across the National Weather Service (NWS), including the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), to diagnose the expected hail size in thunderstorms. Previous work has explored the relationship between the MRMS MESH product and severe hail (≥ 25.4 mm or 1 in.) reported at the ground. This work provides an hourly climatology of severe MRMS MESH across the contiguous U.S. from 2012–2019, including an analysis of how the MESH climatology differs from the severe hail reports climatology. Results suggest that the MESH can provide beneficial hail risk information in areas where population density is low. Evidence shows that the MESH can provide potentially beneficial information about severe hail occurrence during the night in locations that are climatologically favored for upscale convective growth and elevated convection. These findings have important implications for the use of MESH as a verification dataset for SPC probabilistic hail forecasts as well as severe weather watch decisions in areas of higher hail risk but low population density.

Forage-Based Heifer Development Program for North Florida

EDIS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose C.B. Dubeux ◽  
Nicolas DiLorenzo ◽  
Kalyn Waters ◽  
Jane C. Griffin
Keyword(s):  
Development Program ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Beef Cows ◽  
Good News ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Beef Industry ◽  
Performance Targets ◽  
Grazing Systems ◽  
Heifer Development ◽  
Reducing Costs

Florida has 915,000 beef cows and 125,000 replacement heifers (USDA, 2016). Developing these heifers so that they can become productive females in the cow herd is a tremendous investment in a cow/calf operation, an investment that takes several years to make a return. The good news is that there are options to develop heifers on forage-based programs with the possibility of reducing costs while simultaneously meeting performance targets required by the beef industry. Mild winters in Florida allows utilization of cool-season forages that can significantly enhance the performance of grazing heifers. During the warm-season, integration of forage legumes into grazing systems will provide additional nutrients to meet the performance required to develop a replacement heifer to become pregnant and enter the mature cow herd. In this document, we will propose a model for replacement heifer development, based on forage research performed in trials at the NFREC Marianna.   

Home, Sweet Home: Negotiating Intimacy in Brazilian Elitist Closed Condominiums

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 374-395
Author(s):  
Rafael Ignacio Estrada Mejia ◽  
Carla Guerrón Guerron Montero
Keyword(s):  
Collective Mode ◽  
Living Arrangement ◽  
Public Life ◽  
Ethnographic Research ◽  
Social Distinction ◽  
History Of ◽  
Collective Production ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

This article aims to decrease the cultural invisibility of the wealthy by exploring the Brazilian emergent elites and their preferred living arrangement: elitist closed condominiums (BECCs) from a micropolitical perspective.  We answer the question: What is the relationship between intimacy and subjectivity that is produced in the collective mode of existence of BECCs? To do so, we trace the history of the elite home, from the master’s house (casa grande) to contemporary closed condominiums. Following, we discuss the features of closed condominiums as spaces of segregation, fragmentation and social distinction, characterized by minimal public life and an internalized sociability. Finally, based on ethnographic research conducted in the mid-size city of Londrina (state of Paraná) between 2015 and 2017, we concentrate on four members of the emergent elite who live in BECCs, addressing their collective production of subjectivity. 

The Role of the Judiciary and Its Relationship to the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Waddington
Keyword(s):  
Legal System ◽  
Amicus Curiae ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Legal Duty ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

This chapter examines the role of the judiciary with regard to the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD). It considers the relationship which the judiciary have or appear to perceive themselves as having with the CRPD and explores some of the factors seemingly prompting courts to refer to it. The first section reflects on: whether judges are able to choose to refer to the Convention or have a legal duty to do so; the significance of the fact that the CRPD is international law; and whether judges appear to see themselves merely as domestic actors, or as agents or trustees of the CRPD. The second section explores whether judges are referring to the CRPD in response to arguments raised before the court or doing so of their own volition. Also considered are the relevance of amicus curiae interventions; reasons for referral related to the domestic legal system; and the role of particularly engaged individuals.

Protecting Natural Resources

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jérémie Gilbert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Environmental Law ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Human Rights Law ◽  
International Environmental Law ◽  
Conservation Of Natural Resources ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

This chapter focuses on the connection between the international legal framework governing the conservation of natural resources and human rights law. The objective is to examine the potential synergies between international environmental law and human rights when it comes to the protection of natural resources. To do so, it concentrates on three main areas of potential convergence. It first focuses on the pollution of natural resources and analyses how human rights law offers a potential platform to seek remedies for the victims of pollution. It next concentrates on the conservation of natural resources, particularly on the interconnection between protected areas, biodiversity, and human rights law. Finally, it examines the relationship between climate change and human rights law, focusing on the role that human rights law can play in the development of the current climate change adaptation and mitigation frameworks.

scholarly journals Milk Production, Body Weight, Body Condition Score, Activity, and Rumination of Organic Dairy Cattle Grazing Two Different Pasture Systems Incorporating Cool- and Warm-Season Forages

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 264
Author(s):  
Kathryn E. Ritz ◽  
Bradley J. Heins ◽  
Roger D. Moon ◽  
Craig C. Sheaffer ◽  
Sharon L. Weyers
Keyword(s):  
Body Weight ◽  
Milk Production ◽  
Body Condition Score ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Organic Dairy ◽  
Condition Score ◽  
Annual Grasses ◽  
System 2 ◽  
System 1

Organic dairy cows were used to evaluate the effect of two organic pasture production systems (temperate grass species and warm-season annual grasses and cool-season annuals compared with temperate grasses only) across two grazing seasons (May to October of 2014 and 2015) on milk production, milk components (fat, protein, milk urea nitrogen (MUN), somatic cell score (SCS)), body weight, body condition score (BCS), and activity and rumination (min/day). Cows were assigned to two pasture systems across the grazing season at an organic research dairy in Morris, Minnesota. Pasture System 1 was cool-season perennials (CSP) and Pasture System 2 was a combination of System 1 and warm-season grasses and cool-season annuals. System 1 and System 2 cows had similar milk production (14.7 and 14.8 kg d−1), fat percentage (3.92% vs. 3.80%), protein percentage (3.21% vs. 3.17%), MUN (12.5 and 11.5 mg dL−1), and SCS (4.05 and 4.07), respectively. Cows in System 1 had greater daily rumination (530 min/day) compared to cows in System 2 (470 min/day). In summary, warm-season annual grasses may be incorporated into grazing systems for pastured dairy cattle.

scholarly journals Designing for international law: The architecture of international organizations 1922–1952

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Miriam Bak McKenna
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
International Organization ◽  
International Labour Organization ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Physical Manifestation ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Do So

Abstract Situating itself in current debates over the international legal archive, this article delves into the material and conceptual implications of architecture for international law. To do so I trace the architectural developments of international law’s organizational and administrative spaces during the early to mid twentieth century. These architectural endeavours unfolded in three main stages: the years 1922–1926, during which the International Labour Organization (ILO) building, the first building exclusively designed for an international organization was constructed; the years 1927–1937 which saw the great polemic between modernist and classical architects over the building of the Palace of Nations; and the years 1947–1952, with the triumph of modernism, represented by the UN Headquarters in New York. These events provide an illuminating allegorical insight into the physical manifestation, modes of self-expression, and transformation of international law during this era, particularly the relationship between international law and the function and role of international organizations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document