A Coffee Yield Next-Generation Forecast System for Rain-fed Plantations: the Case of the Samalá Watershed in Guatemala

AbstractThe provision of climate services has the potential to generate adaptive capacity and help coffee farmers become or remain profitable by integrating climate information in a risk-management framework. Yet, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to identify the local demand for climate information, the relationships between coffee yield and climate variables, farmers’ perceptions, and to examine the potential actions that can be realistically put in place by farmers at the local level. In this study, we assessed the climate information demands from coffee farmers and their perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield in the Samalá watershed in Guatemala. After co-identifying the related candidate climate predictors, we propose an objective, flexible forecast system for coffee yield based on precipitation. The system, known as NextGen, analyzes multiple historical climate drivers to identify candidate predictors, and provides both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the target season. To illustrate the approach, a NextGen implementation is conducted in the Samalá watershed in southwestern Guatemala. The results suggest that accumulated June-July-August precipitation provides the highest predictive skill associated with coffee yield for this region. In addition to a formal cross-validated skill assessment, retrospective forecasts for the period 1989-2009 were compared to agriculturalists’ perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield at the farm level. We conclude with examples of how demand-based climate service provision in this location can inform adaptation strategies like optimum shade, pest control, and fertilization schemes months in advance. These potential adaptation strategies were validated by local agricultural technicians at the study site.

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Mapping Tourism Stakeholders’ Weather and Climate Information-Seeking Behavior in Fiji

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-16-0078.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 377-391 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

J. Nalau ◽

S. Becken ◽

S. Noakes ◽

B. Mackey

Keyword(s):

Information Seeking ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Small Island ◽

Information Seeking Behavior ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Tourism Sector ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

Seeking Behavior

Abstract Tourism is inherently dependent on weather and climate, and its sustainability and resilience to adverse weather and climate impacts is greatly enhanced by providing tailored climate services to tourism sector stakeholders. Climate services need to integrate standard weather forecasts, with early warning systems, seasonal forecasts, and long-term projections of climatic changes in order to meet the information needs of the sector. While a growing number of studies address the potential climate change impacts on tourism, little is known about how the tourism sector accesses, uses, and analyses the available weather and climate information. This research presents findings from an exploratory study on weather and climate information-seeking behavior of 15 private and public tourism sector stakeholders in the Republic of Fiji. The results show a variety of weather and climate information-seeking paths in use, which differ depending on levels of professional responsibility, weather and climate literacy, and information and digital competency. Those with high weather information literacy access a broader variety of sources. Hence, their interpretation does not focus only on their own location, but “weather” is seen as a broad spatial phenomenon that might or might not result in adverse effects in their location. Understanding diverse weather and climate information-seeking paths can aid in better targeting climate and adaptation services across different stakeholder groups. Especially in the context of small island developing states (SIDS), the integration of traditional, local, and scientific knowledge as information sources is likely to provide a more useful and context-specific basis for climate adaptation planning within the sector.

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Climate Services for eXtremes: Bi-directional knowledge transfer for developing adaptation strategies in agriculture and forestry on the example of the 2018-2020 summer drought in Germany.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13157 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Karsten Haustein ◽

Diana Rechid ◽

Florian Knutzen ◽

Markus Groth ◽

Paul Averbeck ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Knowledge Transfer ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Research Strategy ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Point Of View ◽

Summer Drought ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Forestry Sector ◽

Weather And Climate

The main goal of Climate Services for eXtremes (which in is an integral part of the ClimXtreme framework) is to advance our understanding of the intensity as well as the spatio-temporal distribution of extreme weather and climate events, but tailored to the needs of stakeholders in the agricultural and forestry sector. The project is designed to optimise the communication between scientists and decision makers and thus to maximise the mutual benefit with regard to climate adaption. The scientists involved learn from the interview partners what climate information is actually required on the ground to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies, whereas the sector experts gain insights into the capabilities and limits of state-of-the-art climate information.In order to increase the efficiency of the knowledge transfer between scientists and stakeholders, we introduce a process-chain based approach: (i) the sector-specific identification of the characteristics of extreme weather conditions in close cooperation with partners from forestry and agriculture, (ii) the analysis of past and future weather and climate extremes with various statistical techniques, (iii) the investigation of the effects of these extremes by means of forest and agricultural case studies, and (iv) the development of possible needs-based adaptation strategies to future climatic conditions and extreme events based on this information.The extended summer drought in Germany during the warm seasons 2018 to 2020 is the perfect testbed for the approach, given the wide-ranging consequences this multi-year event had especially on the forestry sector. The event will be analysed from a probabilistic point of view, i.e. what is the return time and what were the causal factors from an atmospheric dynamic and teleconnection point of view. There is also potential to investigate the role of climate change in terms of altered risks. With this information, we can offer initial guidance for the project partners as to what they have to prepare for. But crucially, the interview feedback will help guide our ultimate research strategy. It will be a function of spatial scale, indices of interest as well as scope and complexity of the data and services our partners require. The new insights will serve as a basis to investigate such extreme drought events under potential future climate conditions.&#160;

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Lessons learned from the co-production of climate services in India, Tanzania and Peru: climate capacity building the EPICC way

10.5194/ems2021-481 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mechthild Becker ◽

Thomas Nocke

Keyword(s):

Capacity Building ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Impact ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Human Migration ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Impact Research ◽

Climate Impact Research

EPICC (East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities) is a large interdisciplinary project on the co-production of user-oriented climate services in India, Peru and Tanzania, executed by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It focuses on regional climate and hydrological systems and their interactions with agricultural livelihoods, human migration and security. To bridge the gap between research and its application at various levels of political decision-making or in the private sector, climates services are identified and co-produced with local partners and stakeholders and tailored to their respective needs and priorities.Capacity building and knowledge transfer are fundamental components of EPICC, with the aim to strengthen resilience against climate impacts. Actions include workshops, seminars and trainings in the partner countries, guest stays at PIK and, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, more and more virtual events. The presentation builds on a rich portfolio of experiences and lessons learned throughout the first project phase (4 years), including an overview of how the team adapted to the new realities in international stakeholder exchange during the pandemic and the challenges that came along with this. The presentation also discusses cultural differences in communication and collaboration the project team has experienced.As a practical example, the visualization of climate information for Peru, Tanzania and India on the web portal ClimateImpactsOnline / KlimafolgenOnline is presented. Visualization is considered to be a key technology for analysing and communicating climate information in a user-friendly, interactive and accessible way. As a first step, the needs of different types of users of climate information had to be identified, leading to tailor-made visualization solutions for both historic and future climate and climate impacts as well as current year weather conditions compared to historic climatology. In test sessions, the applicability of the visualized information was tested with local experts and feedback was integrated into the visualization portal. The presenters will share the challenges they had to face during the process and how they envision a sustainable use of project results.The EPICC project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI: www.international-climate-initiative.com). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is leading the execution of the project together with its project partners, the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD).

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The Swiss National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) – accomplishments and future perspectives

10.5194/ems2021-196 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andreas Fischer ◽

Angela Michiko Hama ◽

Mischa Croci-Maspoli

Keyword(s):

Value Chain ◽

Local Level ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Climate Services ◽

Insurance Sector ◽

National Centre ◽

One Stop ◽

Swiss Confederation

In response to the Global Framework for Climate Services&#8217; (GFCS) call for the establishment of national coordination mechanisms, Switzerland founded its National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) in late 2015. The Centre is organized as a network of nine Federal Offices and Institutes as well as partners from academia. Based on a federally agreed national adaptation strategy and plan for action, the NCCS is organized in the sense of a nationwide network. All members are on a par and have an equal say. Attention is given to both pure climate information as well as downstream applications along the climate services value chain.The NCCS pursues three main goals: 1) bundle the existing climate services of the Swiss Confederation, 2) foster dialogue among stakeholder communities, and 3) co-produce new tailored solutions. The co-creation and dissemination of climate services is vital for effective climate mitigation, adaptation and societal transformation. Thus, the NCCS supports policymakers from the national to local level as well as the private sector and society at large in minimizing their risks, maximizing opportunities and optimizing costs.Since its foundation in 2015, several accomplishments have been made through the NCCS&#8217; priority themes, such as the release of the Swiss climate scenarios (CH2018) in 2018 and hydrological scenarios (Hydro-CH2018) in 2021 as a downstream application. Other accomplishments include novel insights into climate-sensitive disaster risk reduction as well as the elaboration of a new hail climatology serving multiple stakeholders in the insurance sector. Moreover, the NCCS web portal www.nccs.ch has been online for more than two years, serving as a one stop-shop for the provision of tailored climate services, best practices and guidance.This presentation will give an overview of the NCCS and its first milestones as well as discuss lessons learnt and current challenges. This also includes new perspectives from a new NCCS programme on cross-sectoral climate impacts and the development of respective decision-support tools to be launched in 2021.&#160;

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Multi-Risk Climate Mapping for the Adaptation of the Venice Metropolitan Area

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13031334 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 1334

Author(s):

Denis Maragno ◽

Carlo Federico dall’Omo ◽

Gianfranco Pozzer ◽

Francesco Musco

Keyword(s):

Social Services ◽

Spatial Information ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Local Level ◽

Spatial Knowledge ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Adaptation Planning ◽

Spatial Decision Support System ◽

Metropolitan City ◽

Climate Adaptation Planning

Climate change risk reduction requires cities to undertake urgent decisions. One of the principal obstacles that hinders effective decision making is insufficient spatial knowledge frameworks. Cities climate adaptation planning must become strategic to rethink and transform urban fabrics holistically. Contemporary urban planning should merge future threats with older and unsolved criticalities, like social inequities, urban conflicts and “drosscapes”. Retrofitting planning processes and redefining urban objectives requires the development of innovative spatial information frameworks. This paper proposes a combination of approaches to overcome knowledge production limits and to support climate adaptation planning. The research was undertaken in collaboration with the Metropolitan City of Venice and the Municipality of Venice, and required the production of a multi-risk climate atlas to support their future spatial planning efforts. The developed tool is a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS), which aids adaptation actions and the coordination of strategies. The model recognises and assesses two climate impacts: Urban Heat Island and Flooding, representing the Metropolitan City of Venice (CMVE) as a case study in complexity. The model is composed from multiple assessment methodologies and maps both vulnerability and risk. The atlas links the morphological and functional conditions of urban fabrics and land use that triggers climate impacts. The atlas takes the exposure assessment of urban assets into account, using this parameter to describe local economies and social services, and map the uneven distribution of impacts. The resulting tool is therefore a replicable and scalable mapping assessment able to mediate between metropolitan and local level planning systems.

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Climate Index Weighting Schemes for NWS ESP-Based Seasonal Volume Forecasts

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-381.1 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 5 (6) ◽

pp. 1076-1090 ◽

Cited By ~ 52

Author(s):

Kevin Werner ◽

David Brandon ◽

Martyn Clark ◽

Subhrendu Gangopadhyay

Keyword(s):

Nearest Neighbor ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climate Index ◽

Climate Information ◽

Streamflow Prediction ◽

Forecast System ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Weighting Schemes ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Spring Runoff

Abstract This study compares methods to incorporate climate information into the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). Three small-to-medium river subbasins following roughly along a longitude in the Colorado River basin with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation signals were chosen as test basins. Historical ensemble forecasts of the spring runoff for each basin were generated using modeled hydrologic states and historical precipitation and temperature observations using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) component of the NWSRFS. Two general methods for using a climate index (e.g., Niño-3.4) are presented. The first method, post-ESP, uses the climate index to weight ensemble members from ESP. Four different post-ESP weighting schemes are presented. The second method, preadjustment, uses the climate index to modify the temperature and precipitation ensembles used in ESP. Two preadjustment methods are presented. This study shows the distance-sensitive nearest-neighbor post-ESP to be superior to the other post-ESP weighting schemes. Further, for the basins studied, forecasts based on post-ESP techniques outperformed those based on preadjustment techniques.

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REVIEW OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Experimental Agriculture ◽

10.1017/s0014479710000876 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 205-240 ◽

Cited By ~ 148

Author(s):

JAMES W. HANSEN ◽

SIMON J. MASON ◽

LIQIANG SUN ◽

ARAME TALL

Keyword(s):

Smallholder Farmers ◽

Seasonal Forecast ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Seasonal Forecasting ◽

Seasonal Forecasts ◽

Climate Services ◽

Seasonal Climate ◽

Climate Forecasting ◽

Probabilistic Forecasts ◽

Sub Saharan

SUMMARYWe review the use and value of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to understanding and exploiting opportunities to realize more of its potential benefits. Interaction between the atmosphere and underlying oceans provides the basis for probabilistic forecasts of climate conditions at a seasonal lead-time, including during cropping seasons in parts of SSA. Regional climate outlook forums (RCOF) and national meteorological services (NMS) have been at the forefront of efforts to provide forecast information for agriculture. A survey showed that African NMS often go well beyond the RCOF process to improve seasonal forecast information and disseminate it to the agricultural sector. Evidence from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few well-documented evaluations of actual use and resulting benefit suggests that seasonal forecasts may have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and rural livelihoods. However, constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcity have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal prediction among smallholder farmers. Those constraints that reflect inadequate information products, policies or institutional process can potentially be overcome. Additional opportunities to benefit rural communities come from expanding the use of seasonal forecast information for coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade and agricultural insurance. The surge of activity surrounding seasonal forecasting in SSA following the 1997/98 El Niño has waned in recent years, but emerging initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and ClimDev-Africa, are poised to reinvigorate support for seasonal forecast information services for agriculture. We conclude with a discussion of institutional and policy changes that we believe will greatly enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasting to agriculture in SSA.

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Skill assessment of post-processing methods for ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts over Europe

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11019 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alice Crespi ◽

Marcello Petitta ◽

Lucas Grigis ◽

Paola Marson ◽

Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Production Management ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Research Field ◽

Skill Assessment ◽

Post Processing ◽

Seasonal Forecasts ◽

Climate Services ◽

Local Climate ◽

Climate Conditions

Seasonal forecasts provide information on climate conditions several months ahead and therefore they could represent a valuable support for decision making, warning systems as well as for the optimization of industry and energy sectors. However, forecast systems can be affected by systematic biases and have horizontal resolutions which are typically coarser than the spatial scales of the practical applications. For this reason, the reliability of forecasts needs to be carefully assessed before applying and interpreting them for specific applications. In addition, the use of post-processing approaches is recommended in order to improve the representativeness of the large-scale predictions of regional and local climate conditions. The development and evaluation downscaling and bias-correction procedures aiming at improving the skills of the forecasts and the quality of derived climate services is currently an open research field. In this context, we evaluated the skills of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts of monthly mean temperature, total precipitation and wind speed over Europe and we assessed the skill improvements of calibrated predictions.For the calibration, we combined a bilinear interpolation and a quantile mapping approach to obtain corrected monthly forecasts on a 0.25&#176;x0.25&#176; grid from the original 1&#176;x1&#176; values. The forecasts were corrected against the reference ERA5 reanalysis over the hindcast period 1993&#8211;2016. The processed forecasts were compared over the same domain and period with another calibrated set of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts obtained by the ADAMONT statistical method.The skill assessment was performed by means of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics evaluated over seasonal forecasted aggregations for the first lead time. Greater skills of the forecast systems in Europe were generally observed in spring and summer, especially for temperature, with a spatial distribution varying with the seasons. The calibration was proved to effectively correct the model biases for all variables, however the metrics not accounting for bias did not show significant improvements in most cases, and in some areas and seasons even small degradations in skills were observed.The presented study supported the activities of the H2020 European project SECLI-FIRM on the improvement of the seasonal forecast applicability for energy production, management and assessment.

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Demonstrating the full-value chain of climate services in Southern Africa: the FOCUS-Africa project

10.5194/ems2021-460 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Roberta Boscolo ◽

Hamid Bastani ◽

Asmerom Beraki ◽

Nicolas Fournier ◽

Raül Marcos-Matamoros ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Case Studies ◽

Scientific Knowledge ◽

Value Chain ◽

Service Providers ◽

End Users ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Wide Range

FOCUS-Africa is an EU Horizon 2020 project funded to co-develop tailored climate services in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The project, led by the WMO and started in September 2020, gathers 16 partners across Africa and Europe jointly committed to addressing the value of climate services for key economic sectors in Africa: agriculture and food security, water, energy, and infrastructure.The project is piloting eight case studies (CSs) in five different countries involving a wide range of end-users. New services derived from seasonal and decadal forecasts are applied for food security and crop production in South Africa, Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanzania. High-resolution climate projections, as well as historical climate reanalyses, are used to support planning and investment decisions for: a railway infrastructure and a mix of renewable energies in Tanzania, hydropower generation assessment under climate change scenarios in Malawi, and water resources management in Mauritius.For all the FOCUS-Africa&#8217;s case studies, socio-economic impact assessment of the delivered climate services will be carried out in collaboration with the CS leaders, service providers, and end-users, by providing ex-ante and ex-post evaluations grounded in the Global Indicator Framework for the Sustainable Development Goals. The project will align the capacity development efforts with those promoted by WMO for enhancing the capabilities of the NMHSs to deliver climate services to users and will make sure that the project's innovative processes and tools will be part of the WMO training curricula.FOCUS-Africa's expected impacts are:<ul><li>Build a strong link between the climate scientific community and stakeholders in the SADC region by leveraging the advanced scientific knowledge and strong networks of the implementing team, and by establishing dedicated channels of communications, so as to target the full value chain of our users, from the start of the project</li> <li>Advance the way in which climate information is developed by characterising end-use requirements through regular engagement</li> <li>Contribute to the advancement of the scientific knowledge in the region and strengthened support for international scientific assessments through publications and reports such as those relevant for the IPCC, through the innovative science developed by FOCUS-Africa</li> <li>Demonstrate the effectiveness of the climate information by strengthening the adaptive capacity of end-users by delivering tailored, actionable, and exploitable climate services and by estimating their socio-economic benefits across the full value chain.</li> <li>Enhance policy-making for climate adaptation in the project and other countries</li> <li>Increase women&#8217;s access to climate services</li> </ul>

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From climate information to climate services: the need for a Belgian climate service centre

10.5194/ems2021-34 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rozemien De Troch ◽

Piet Termonia

Keyword(s):

Service Provision ◽

Scientific Research ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Research Institutions ◽

Climate Information ◽

Climate Services ◽

Climate Research ◽

Scientific Expertise ◽

The Creation ◽

Meteorological Institute

The Belgian expertise with respect to climate research is very fragmented and led by both federal (like the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, hereafter RMI) as well as regional scientific research institutions and universities. Furthermore, both in societal, research as well as policy context there is an increasing need for detailed, quantitative, reliable and consistent climate information and services, in particular linked to the expected climate changes and its impacts in different sectors (e.g. water, agriculture, energy, health, transport).To make all this scientific expertise and climate information available in a coordinated and, above all, user-friendly way, a Belgian climate centre or a one-stop shop for climate research and services would fully address the needs. With its long-standing scientific expertise and service provision, RMI plays a crucial role in fulfilling this growing need for climate information and services.Hence, RMI has elaborated a proposal on the creation of a Belgian climate centre. For the creation of such centre it is preferable to use existing collaborations from previous or ongoing research and service-provision activities in Belgium, requiring a structural cooperation in which each members&#8217; expertise can be fully deployed. In the context of a previous research project, a large consortium of Belgian research institutions active in regional climate modelling, calculated for the first time a consistent set of high-resolution climate projections and sectoral impacts for Belgium. Nevertheless, it should be emphasized that the number of models used was far too limited to develop reliable information of the future climate. Moreover, this was a one-time project and there is currently an urgent need to update the climate projections to meet the new scientific requirements of the IPCC's new sixth Assessment Report.One of the activities of the centre would thus be the coordination of the climate research based on scientific research projects. Furthermore, in order to ensure the continuous development and provision of climate services based on this objective and scientifically based expertise coming from Belgian climate scientists, the climate centre would carry out two main core tasks: (i) the production and storage of climate information and (ii) the support for the development of climate services.The financing and implementation of a Belgian climate centre, would provide a structural framework for climate research and services, establishing partnerships with the various regions and communities, at both policy and research levels. In this way, RMI, as national meteorological institute and at the start of the climate services value chain, can guarantee a continuous scientific expertise and respond to the major needs for climate information and services at national and international level.

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