scholarly journals Economic Value of Meteorological Services to Switzerland’s Airlines: The Case of TAF at Zurich Airport

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 264-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan von Gruenigen ◽  
Saskia Willemse ◽  
Thomas Frei
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Service Areas ◽  
Domestic Airlines ◽  
Economic Need ◽  
Decision Making Model

AbstractJust as in other state-subsidized service areas, in the field of aviation weather there is political pressure as well as a growing economic need to substantiate or at least evaluate the economic benefits of meteorological information. The research presented in this paper has been conducted as part of a broad study concerning the economic benefits of the meteorological services in the Swiss transport sector. For the aviation sector, interviews revealed that meteorological information is a pivotal input factor in the decision-making process of airlines: In addition to security and safety purposes, airlines use meteorological information to optimize the economic efficiency of daily operations as well as for strategic decisions regarding flight routes and flight planning.In this paper a decision-making model is used to evaluate at least part of the economic benefits of the meteorological services to Switzerland’s domestic airlines by analyzing the use of terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) at Zurich Airport (Switzerland). By lowering the probability of costly wrong decisions, meteorological information generates direct economic benefits for the airlines. The total benefits for all domestic airlines at Zurich Airport amount to between 11 and 17 million Swiss francs per year [12 to 18 million USD; 1 U.S. dollars (USD) = 0.934 Swiss francs (CHF), average exchange rate 2012]. By extrapolating the results based on the number of flights, the total economic benefits of TAF to Switzerland’s domestic airlines at both main Swiss airports (Zurich and Geneva) add up to somewhere between 13 and 21 million Swiss francs per year (14 to 22 million USD).

strategi dalam pengambilan keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suci Handayani Handayani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Administrative Process ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Information Time ◽  
Complex Matter ◽  
General Individuals

Decision making is one element of economic value, especially in the era of globalization, and if it is not acceptable in the decision making process, we will be left behind. According to Robins, (2003: 173), Salusu, (2000: 47), and Razik and Swanson, (1995: 476) say that decision making can be interpreted as a process of choosing a number of alternatives, how to act in accordance with concepts, or rules in solving problems to achieve individual or group goals that have been formulated using a number of specific techniques, approaches and methods and achieve optimal levels of acceptance.Decision making in organizations whether a decision is made for a person or group, the nature of the decision is often determined by rules, policies, prescribed, instructions that have been derived or practices that apply. To understand decision making within the organization it is useful to view decision making as part of the overall administrative process. In general, individuals tend to use simple strategies, even if in any complex matter, to get the desired solution, because the solution is limited by imperfect information, time and costs, limited thinking and psychological stress experienced by decision makers.

Did Groupthink or Polythink Derail the 2016 Raqqa Offensive?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kasey Barr ◽  
Alex Mintz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Tactical Decisions

This chapter examines the effect of group dynamics on the 2016 decision within the administration of President Barack Obama to lead the international coalition in a mission to liberate Raqqa, Syria, from the Islamic State. The authors show that whereas the groupthink syndrome characterized the decision-making process of the US-led coalition’s decision to attack Raqqa, it was polythink that characterized the decision-making dynamics both in the US-led coalition and within the inner circle of Obama’s own foreign policy advisors. Through case-study analysis, the authors illustrate that groupthink is more likely in strategic decisions, whereas polythink is more likely in tactical decisions.

An Evacuation Decision Making Model for Firefighters in Ad Hoc Robot Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 756-759 ◽  
pp. 504-508
Author(s):  
De Min Li ◽  
Jian Zou ◽  
Kai Kai Yue ◽  
Hong Yun Guan ◽  
Jia Cun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Markov Decision Process ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Decision Method ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Critical Problems ◽  
Fire Scene ◽  
Decision Making Model

Evacuation for a firefighter in complex fire scene is challenge problem. In this paper, we discuss a firefighters evacuation decision making model in ad hoc robot network on fire scene. Due to the dynamics on fire scene, we know that the sensed information in ad hoc robot network is also dynamically variance. So in this paper, we adapt dynamic decision method, Markov decision process, to model the firefighters decision making process for evacuation from fire scene. In firefighting decision making process, we know that the critical problems are how to define action space and evaluate the transition law in Markov decision process. In this paper, we discuss those problems according to the triangular sensors situation in ad hoc robot network and describe a decision making model for a firefighters evacuation the in the end.

scholarly journals A HYBRID MODEL FOR DECISION-MAKING IN THE INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 720-737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés CID-LÓPEZ ◽  
Miguel J. HORNOS ◽  
Ramón Alberto CARRASCO ◽  
Enrique HERRERA-VIEDMA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Computing With Words ◽  
Communications Technology ◽  
Qualitative Information ◽  
Technology Sector ◽  
Decision Making Model

The majority of businesses in the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector face decision-making problems on a daily basis. Most of these problems are based on contexts of uncertainty, where decisions are founded on qualitative information which may be imprecise or perception-based. In these cases, the information which is expressed by experts and users of evaluated services can be treated using processes of computing with words (CW). In this paper, we present a hybrid decision-making model especially designed for the ICT sector whereby the experts have the support of an intelligent system which provides information about the opinions of users related to those problems which are to be analysed. These opinions are obtained by using different mechanisms and techniques when users conduct business with the service provider. In addition, we employ a procedure for obtaining consensus between experts which enriches and strengthens the decision-making process.

scholarly journals NECESSITY OF MAPPING AND ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEMS AND THEIR SERVICES IN PLANNING AND DECISION MAKING PROCESS

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 234
Author(s):  
Līga Brūniņa ◽  
Elīna Konstantinova ◽  
Aija Peršēvica
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
National Level ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Integrate Assessment ◽  
Reporting Systems ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
The Eu

The EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 determines that “Member States, with the assistance of the Commission, will map and assess the state of ecosystems and their services in their national territory by 2014, assess the economic value of such services, and promote the integration of these values into accounting and reporting systems at EU and national level by 2020”. Mapping and assessment of ecosystem services provides several benefits, one of which is baseline data providing to measure net future gains or losses and data integration into spatial development process. The aim of the paper is to present and discuss the approach taken to assessing ecosystem services in order to introduce necessity of mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services for planning and decision-making process in Latvia. The paper will focus on terminology interpretation of ecosystem services, introducing with set of developed indicators for assessment of ecosystem services and define appropriate for Latvia. The paper closes with estimation of potential benefits and necessity to integrate assessment of ecosystems services in spatial planning and decision-making process.

scholarly journals Economic valuation and mapping of Ecosystem Services in the context of protected area management (Natural Park of Serra de São Mamede, Portugal)

One Ecosystem ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Marta-Pedroso ◽  
Lia Laporta ◽  
Ivo Gama ◽  
Tiago Domingos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Natural Park

Demonstrating economic benefits generated by protected areas is often pointed out as pivotal for supporting decision-making. We argue in this paper that the concept of ecosystem services (ES), defined as the benefits humans derive from ecosystems, provides a consistent framework to approach this issue as it links ecosystem functioning and benefits, including benefits with economic value. This study aimed at providing evidence on how to bring the economic value of protected areas to the decision-making process and contributing to extend current EU Member States' experience in mapping and assessing the economic value of ES in the context of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 (Action 5). In doing so, we used the Natural Park of Serra de S. Mamede (PNSSM), located in the Alentejo NUTS II region, as a case study. We followed a three-step approach to pursue our goals, entailing stakeholders' engagement for selecting relevant ES (through a participatory workshop), biophysical mapping of ES flows (based on a multi-tiered approach depending on data availability) and spatial economic estimation of such flows (using value transfer, willingness-to-pay and market price methods). Our results indicate that the ES with highest economic value are not always the ones with higher perceived value by stakeholders. For most ES, the economic value increased with increasing protection level within the park, except for the crop production service. Although no formal uncertainty or sensitivity analysis has been performed, the following range is based on a critical assessment of non-primary data used. We estimated the aggregate annual value of PNSSM to be 11 to 33M€/year (representing 0.1 to 0.3% of the regional NUTSII Alentejo Gross Domestic Product). Our findings reinforce the need to adopt mixes of monetary and non-monetary valuation processes and not to rely just on one approach or measure of value while bringing ES into protected areas management.

scholarly journals A FORMALIZED ALGORITHM FOR OPTIMIZING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN CONDITIONS OF STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iryna Debela
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Control Process ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Interval Estimate ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Stochastic Uncertainty ◽  
Functional Relationships ◽  
Decision Making Model

One of the main tasks of the decision support theory is the study of methods and tools for solving the problem of minimizing the negative consequences and risks in choosing strategic directions for the development of the studied system - the object of management. The formal algorithm of the optimization in conditions of the decision-making process stochastic uncertainty, and realization of steady states in system is investigated. The purpose of the algorithm model is to provide the predicted dynamics, compensation of structural, parametric uncertainty of the control system. The ambiguity of the choice the alternative solutions and as a consequence - the inadequacy of the mathematical model, due to the significant amount of stochastic and functional relationships, different ways of presenting input data, the impossibility formalizing the studied processes. Solutions in conditions of partial or complete uncertainty can be found by searching for elements of a set the alternatives, each of which with some probability may be the optimal solution. If statistical observations of the studied object or management process are incomplete, insufficiently formalized, or impossible at all, then the uncertainty of the decision to predict the directions of their possible development is clear. The decision-making process in conditions of uncertainty is proposed to be divided into stages: specification and formalization of the decision-making model; choice methods and algorithms for constructing alternatives taking into account the peculiarities of the chosen decision-making model. Parametric uncertainty is described as an interval estimate of possible values of the studied parameter. The interval can be strictly limited by numerical values, or with not clear limits - descriptive qualitative variables. Modeling of the control process in conditions of stochastic uncertainty is based on the definition of the object under study as a complex system. A promising area of research on this topic is a mathematical description of the value distribution function within the interval, which can be formalized on the basis of expert estimates, or as a heuristic probability distribution function of unpredictable events.

Analysis and Intuition in Strategic Decision Making

2011 ◽  
pp. 1531-1542
Author(s):  
Zita Zoltay Paprika
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Managerial Skills ◽  
Research Scholarship ◽  
Empirical Tests

Many management scholars believe that the process used to make strategic decisions affects the quality of those decisions. However, several authors have observed a lack of research on the strategic decision-making process. Empirical tests of factors that have been hypothesized to affect the way strategic decisions are made are notably absent (Fredrickson, 1985). This article reports the results of a study that attempts to assess the effects of decision-making circumstances, focusing mainly on the approaches applied and the managerial skills and capabilities the decision makers built on during concrete strategic decisionmaking procedures. The study was conducted in California between September 2005 and June 2006 and it was sponsored by a Fulbright research scholarship grant.

The role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making: evidence from an emerging economy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maqsood Ahmad ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Yasar Abbass
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis article aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging economy.Design/methodology/approachEntrepreneurs' heuristic-driven biases have been measured using a questionnaire, comprising numerous items, including indicators of entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. To examine the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process, a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire has been used to collect data from the sample of 169 entrepreneurs who operate in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Amos graphics software. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique.FindingsThe article provides empirical insights into the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. The results suggest that heuristic-driven biases (anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, availability and overconfidence) have a markedly negative influence on the strategic decisions made by entrepreneurs in emerging markets. It means that heuristic-driven biases can impair the quality of the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process.Practical implicationsThe article encourages entrepreneurs to avoid relying on cognitive heuristics or their feelings when making strategic decisions. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions, which could be very useful for business actors such as entrepreneurs, managers and entire organizations. Understanding regarding the role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions may help entrepreneurs to improve the quality of their decision-making. They can improve the quality of their decision-making by recognizing their behavioral biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more appropriate selection of entrepreneurial opportunities.Originality/valueThe current study is the first to focus on links between heuristic-driven bias and the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in Pakistan—an emerging economy. This article enhanced the understanding of the role that heuristic-driven bias plays in the entrepreneurial strategic decisions and more importantly, it went some way toward enhancing understanding of behavioral aspects and their influence on entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging market. It also adds to the literature in the area of entrepreneurial management specifically the role of heuristics in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while, in developing countries, little work has been done.

scholarly journals A LOGISTIC APPROACH FOR DESCRIPTION OF DECISION-MAKING PROCESS / SPRENDIMŲ PRIĖMIMO APRAŠYMAS LOGISTINIU POŽIŪRIU

Aviation ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Grigorak ◽  
Olga Shkvar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
A Company

Managers must make strategic decisions to cope with issues of uncertainty, customer service and the management of a company. The objective of this paper is to analyse the problem of optimisation and search of rational logistic decisions, taking into account the human factor and, in particular, the preferences of people who make decisions and implement them during the logistic activity of an enterprise. The problem of making optimal decisions for transportation of goods, taking into account the factor of urgency was investigated. Santrauka Marketingo vadybininkai turi priimti strateginius sprendimus, kaip suvaldyti neaiškias situacijas, organizuoti darbą su klientais bei su įmonės vadovybe. Šio tyrimo tikslas yra problemos optimizavimo analizė bei racionalių logistinių sprendimų paieška, įvertinant subjektyvumą ir iš dalies—pirmenybės sistemą asmenims, kurie priima sprendimus ir užtikrina jųįvykdymą, įgyvendinant logistinęįmonės veiklą. Išanalizuotas optimalaus spendimo priėmimas gabenant krovinius, kai reikia įvertintį skubumo faktorių.

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