scholarly journals A LOGISTIC APPROACH FOR DESCRIPTION OF DECISION-MAKING PROCESS / SPRENDIMŲ PRIĖMIMO APRAŠYMAS LOGISTINIU POŽIŪRIU

Aviation ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Grigorak ◽  
Olga Shkvar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
A Company

Managers must make strategic decisions to cope with issues of uncertainty, customer service and the management of a company. The objective of this paper is to analyse the problem of optimisation and search of rational logistic decisions, taking into account the human factor and, in particular, the preferences of people who make decisions and implement them during the logistic activity of an enterprise. The problem of making optimal decisions for transportation of goods, taking into account the factor of urgency was investigated. Santrauka Marketingo vadybininkai turi priimti strateginius sprendimus, kaip suvaldyti neaiškias situacijas, organizuoti darbą su klientais bei su įmonės vadovybe. Šio tyrimo tikslas yra problemos optimizavimo analizė bei racionalių logistinių sprendimų paieška, įvertinant subjektyvumą ir iš dalies—pirmenybės sistemą asmenims, kurie priima sprendimus ir užtikrina jųįvykdymą, įgyvendinant logistinęįmonės veiklą. Išanalizuotas optimalaus spendimo priėmimas gabenant krovinius, kai reikia įvertintį skubumo faktorių.

Did Groupthink or Polythink Derail the 2016 Raqqa Offensive?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kasey Barr ◽  
Alex Mintz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Tactical Decisions

This chapter examines the effect of group dynamics on the 2016 decision within the administration of President Barack Obama to lead the international coalition in a mission to liberate Raqqa, Syria, from the Islamic State. The authors show that whereas the groupthink syndrome characterized the decision-making process of the US-led coalition’s decision to attack Raqqa, it was polythink that characterized the decision-making dynamics both in the US-led coalition and within the inner circle of Obama’s own foreign policy advisors. Through case-study analysis, the authors illustrate that groupthink is more likely in strategic decisions, whereas polythink is more likely in tactical decisions.

Model to Estimate the Human Factor Quality in FLOSS Development

2015 ◽  
pp. 219-236
Author(s):  
Zulaima Chiquin ◽  
Kenyer Domínguez ◽  
Luis E. Mendoza ◽  
Edumilis Méndez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Open Source Software ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Self Evaluation ◽  
Systemic Quality

This chapter presents a Model to Estimate the Human Factor Quality in Free/Libre Open Source Software (FLOSS) Development, or EHFQ-FLOSS. The model consists of three dimensions: Levels (individual, community, and foundation), Aspects (internal or contextual), and Forms of Evaluation (self-evaluation, co-evaluation, and hetero-evaluation). Furthermore, this model provides 145 metrics applicable to all three levels, as well as an algorithm that guides their proper application to estimate the systemic quality of human resources involved in the development of FLOSS, guide the decision-making process, and take possible corrective actions.

Analysis and Intuition in Strategic Decision Making

2011 ◽  
pp. 1531-1542
Author(s):  
Zita Zoltay Paprika
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Managerial Skills ◽  
Research Scholarship ◽  
Empirical Tests

Many management scholars believe that the process used to make strategic decisions affects the quality of those decisions. However, several authors have observed a lack of research on the strategic decision-making process. Empirical tests of factors that have been hypothesized to affect the way strategic decisions are made are notably absent (Fredrickson, 1985). This article reports the results of a study that attempts to assess the effects of decision-making circumstances, focusing mainly on the approaches applied and the managerial skills and capabilities the decision makers built on during concrete strategic decisionmaking procedures. The study was conducted in California between September 2005 and June 2006 and it was sponsored by a Fulbright research scholarship grant.

The role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making: evidence from an emerging economy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maqsood Ahmad ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Yasar Abbass
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis article aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristic-driven biases influence the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging economy.Design/methodology/approachEntrepreneurs' heuristic-driven biases have been measured using a questionnaire, comprising numerous items, including indicators of entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. To examine the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process, a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire has been used to collect data from the sample of 169 entrepreneurs who operate in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Amos graphics software. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique.FindingsThe article provides empirical insights into the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and entrepreneurial strategic decision-making. The results suggest that heuristic-driven biases (anchoring and adjustment, representativeness, availability and overconfidence) have a markedly negative influence on the strategic decisions made by entrepreneurs in emerging markets. It means that heuristic-driven biases can impair the quality of the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making process.Practical implicationsThe article encourages entrepreneurs to avoid relying on cognitive heuristics or their feelings when making strategic decisions. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions, which could be very useful for business actors such as entrepreneurs, managers and entire organizations. Understanding regarding the role of heuristic-driven biases in entrepreneurial strategic decisions may help entrepreneurs to improve the quality of their decision-making. They can improve the quality of their decision-making by recognizing their behavioral biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more appropriate selection of entrepreneurial opportunities.Originality/valueThe current study is the first to focus on links between heuristic-driven bias and the entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in Pakistan—an emerging economy. This article enhanced the understanding of the role that heuristic-driven bias plays in the entrepreneurial strategic decisions and more importantly, it went some way toward enhancing understanding of behavioral aspects and their influence on entrepreneurial strategic decision-making in an emerging market. It also adds to the literature in the area of entrepreneurial management specifically the role of heuristics in entrepreneurial strategic decision-making; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while, in developing countries, little work has been done.

Employees’ judgment and decision making in the banking industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 382-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mijung Kang ◽  
Min Jae Park
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Training System ◽  
Judgment And Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Anchoring And Adjustment ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
Bank Employees

Purpose Heuristics are used in the judgment and decision-making process of bank employees; however, discussions and research on the type or range of judgmental heuristics are very difficult to find throughout the world. In light of this, the purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze what types of heuristics are used in bank employees’ judgment and decision-making processes and the extent to which those types of heuristics prevent rational decision making due to the systematic biases they generate. In particular, this study aims to conduct empirical research based on various scenarios related to the banking industry. Design/methodology/approach To examine the heuristics in decision-making circumstances and the level of subsequent biases, the present study narrowed the scope of research to the three main types of heuristics introduced by Tversky and Kahneman (1974), namely, representativeness heuristics, availability heuristics and anchoring and adjustment heuristics. To analyze the bank employees’ decision making, this study specifically investigated the level of decision-making heuristics and the level of bias by focusing on these three types of heuristics. This study targeted bank employees who either sell financial products or are engaged in customer service work at a real/physical bank. Findings For representativeness heuristics, this study found bank employees’ judgment of probability was influenced by biases, such as insensitivity to prior probability, insensitivity to sample size, misconception of chance and insensitivity to predictability. Regarding availability heuristics, it found that bank employees judge the probability of events based on the ease of recalling an event instead of the actual frequency of the event, and so they fall prey to systematic biases. Finally, regarding anchoring and adjustment heuristics, this study found that employees fall prey to judgment biases as they judge the probability of conjunctive events and disjunctive events based on anchoring and insufficient adjustment. Originality/value Although people who are well-trained in statistics can avoid rudimentary errors, they fall prey to biased judgment at a similar level to those who are not properly trained in statistics when it comes to more complicated and ambiguous issues. It clearly indicates that it is risky to determine that financial experts would be more rational than the general public in making various judgments required in the policy-making process. To conclude, it is imperative to recognize the existence of heuristics-based systematic biases in the judgment and decision-making process and, furthermore, to reinforce the education and training system to improve bank employees’ rational choice and judgment ability.

A survey of the bidding practices of Canadian civil engineering construction contractors

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aminah Fayek ◽  
Indrani Ghoshal ◽  
Simaan AbouRizk
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Survey Methodology ◽  
Civil Engineering ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Major Conclusion ◽  
Engineering Construction ◽  
Common Practices ◽  
A Company ◽  
Insight Into

This paper presents the findings of a survey of the bidding practices of Canadian civil engineering construction contractors. The results of the survey provide insight into the most important factors that contractors consider in making four bid decisions: the decision to bid, the risk allowance, the opportunity allowance, and the markup-size decision. The survey methodology is described to illustrate its effectiveness. Common practices in assessing risks and opportunities, the competition, and markup are discussed. A major conclusion of this paper is that the decision-making process used in bidding is largely subjective and based on experienced judgement. The assessment of the competition is done on an informal basis in most cases, with little use of historical competitor data. Risk and opportunity assessment is subjective and largely based on experience. Although the markup-size decision is critical to the success of a company in achieving its objectives and realizing a profit, markup setting is usually based on experience, with little or no formal methods of analysis.Key words: bidding, markup, risk analysis, surveys, tendering.

scholarly journals Analysis and intuition in strategic decision making. The case of California

2007 ◽  
pp. 60-67
Author(s):  
Zita Zoltayné Paprika
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Managerial Skills ◽  
Research Scholarship ◽  
Empirical Tests

Many management scholars believe that the process used to make strategic decisions affects the quality of those decisions. However several authors have observed a lack of research on the strategic decision making process. Empirical tests of factors that have been hypothesized to affect the way strategic decisions are made notably are absent. (Fredrickson, 1985) This paper reports the results of a study that attempts to assess the effects of decision making circumstances focusing mainly on the approaches applied and the managerial skills and capabilities the decision makers built on during concrete strategic decision making procedures. The study was conducted in California between September 2005 and June 2006 and it was sponsored by a Fulbright Research Scholarship Grant.

scholarly journals THE BUSINESS ASSISTANT SERVICE AS ONE OF THE PROMISING AREAS FOR THE ADOPTION OF AI TECHNOLOGIES IN THE ENTERPRISE

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 588-597
Author(s):  
Tetiana Ivashchenko ◽  
Igor Chornodid ◽  
Andrii Ivashchenko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Business Decision ◽  
Empirical Modelling ◽  
Optimal Decisions ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Types Of Information ◽  
Modern Solution

In modern conditions, entrepreneurs are faced with the acute problem of analysing of numerous information, quickly responding to a constantly changing economic situation, and making the most optimal decisions. In this regard, the development of a Business Assistant service (BAS) is a very relevant since it is a modern solution that can significantly simplify and improve the work of enterprises. The main goal of the research is on the basis of AI technologies to elaborate the Business Assistant service, that would speed up, optimize and simplify the decision-making process for the entrepreneur and can be used by many enterprises both when starting a business and when operating it. The main tasks for implementing the goal are: to analyze the scientific literature regarding the possibilities of using AI technologies in business, to identify the factors that mainly influence the entrepreneur’s choice regarding the sphere of activity, as well as the types of information most useful for doing business, to analyze and collect data for the model design, to develop a prototype of the BAS and test its functionality in practice. The research methods are: the theoretical – analysis and synthesis, abstraction method, the empirical – modelling (clustering, classification, logistic regression) and experimental method.The investigation results are: a prototype of the BAS was created, its effectiveness – ability of delivering useful recommendations and improving the business decision-making process for the entrepreneur has been proven experimentally using actual market data. The service can be effectively used by small and medium-sized enterprises in various industries and regions, provided that there is an access to the necessary data. The main risks associated with its implementation and possible ways of their reduction were considered.

scholarly journals La heurística y la toma de decisiones en empresas de servicios

Oikos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (38) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Germán Rubio Guerrero ◽  
Fernando Adolfo Fierro Celis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Rational Models ◽  
Toma De Decisiones

RESUMENEl propósito de la investigación fue estudiar los prejuicios y errores en la toma de decisiones y su relación con los modelos racionales en 16 empresas de servicios seleccionadas a juicio de los investigadores en los departamentos de Tolima y Huila, Colombia. Se trató de un estudio mixto quea través del análisis multidimensional, permitió establecer que en estas organizaciones prevalecen los enfoques intuitivos sobre los formales en sus procesos decisionales. Igualmente se evidenciaroncorrelaciones significativas e independencia entre estas variables.Palabras clave: toma de decisiones, decisiones estratégicas, racionalidad, racionalidad limitada,métodos para la toma de decisiones, incertidumbre.The heuristic and the decision making in services companiesABSTRACTThe purpose of this research was to study the prejudices and mistakes in decision making and your relation with the rational models in 6 enterprises of services selected to judgment of the investigators on the departments of Tolima and Huila, Colombia. It was a combined study which through of multivariate analysis, allowed to establish that in these organizations prevail the intuitive approaches over that the formals in their decision making process. Equally significant correlations between these variables and independence were evident.Keywords: decisions making, strategic decisions, heuristic, rationality, bounded rationality, methodsmaking decisions, uncertainty.Heurística e a toma de decisão em empresas de serviços.RESUMOO objetivo da pesquisa foi estudar os preconceitos e erros na toma de decisões e sua relação com os modelos racionais em 16 empresas de serviços, selecionadas segundo o parecer dos pesquisadores dosdepartamentos de Tolima e Huila, na Colômbia. Este foi um estudo misto que a través da análise multidimensional, permitiu estabelecer que nestas organizações prevalecem os enfoques intuitivos por sobre os formais em seus processos de toma de decisão. Da mesma forma, se evidenciaram correlações significativas e independência entre estas variáveis.Palavras-chave: toma de decisões, decisões estratégicas, racionalidade, racionalidade limitada,métodos de toma de decisão, incerteza.

Cognitive Biases

2018 ◽  
pp. 214-235
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Legal Education ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions

This chapter will describe some implications of using cognitive biases in the decision-making process in social areas such as economic, legal, education, and political. The cognitive bias would be a pattern of deviation in judgment, in which the inferences that we make about other people and/or situations can be illogical. Moreover, different studies have found that even strategic decisions that affect the society can be influenced by these biases. Therefore, it is important to be aware of them to try to detect and reduce them. Above all, it is necessary to teach how to detect them in order to reduce them in public professionals.

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