The Effects of the Great Recession on Family Structure and Fertility

2013 ◽  
Vol 650 (1) ◽  
pp. 214-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Cherlin ◽  
Erin Cumberworth ◽  
S. Philip Morgan ◽  
Christopher Wimer
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Family Life ◽  
Recent Immigrants ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Younger Women ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Intergenerational Coresidence ◽  
Long Term Trend

Recessions can alter family life by constraining the choices that individuals and couples make concerning their family lives and by activating the family’s role as an emergency support system. Both effects were visible during and after the Great Recession. Fertility declined by 9 to 11 percent, depending on the measure, and the decline was greater in states that experienced higher increases in unemployment. The decline was greater among younger women, which suggests postponement rather than forgoing of births. The fall in fertility was sharpest for Hispanics, a result the authors attribute to a drop in Mexican immigration, which reduced the number of recent immigrants, the group with the highest fertility. Substantial increases occurred in the percentage of young adults, single and married, who lived with their parents, augmenting a long-term trend toward intergenerational coresidence. There was a slight decline in divorce and separation in states with higher unemployment.

Growth Behaviour of India’s Export of Services, 1975–2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 001573252098218
Author(s):  
Sampriti Das ◽  
Amiya Sarma
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Structural Elements ◽  
Growth Behaviour ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Face ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
Long Term Trend

Trade in services has made phenomenal strides in the globalisation era with the advent of a technology revolution, fragmentation in production processes and rapid digitisation. The case of India has been exemplary, as she bypasses her sluggish growth in goods exports to emerge as a world leader in commercial services. By churning out positive net exports since 2003, this trade sector has considerably eased the country’s unfavourable current-account position. Further, the relatively robust performance of the country’s service exports in the face of the Great Recession of 2008–2009 has ignited speculations over its suitability as an instrument of sustainable economic growth. Though the stupendous growth of India’s export of services is well documented, not much has been said regarding consistency in this growth. Our study identifies that against the backdrop of key macroeconomic developments, the growth performance of the country’s real export of services has undergone vivid variations. The long-term trend of these exports, though increasing, is choppy. We identify three structural regimes in the course of these exports: 1975–1993, 1994–2004 and 2005–2018. We conscientiously deduce that the phenomenal growth of real service exports that accrued in the 1990s has been slowly wearing out post 2005. The slowdown has both cyclical and structural elements to it and corresponds to the changing cyclicality of service exports, subduing demand, slowing global value chains (GVCs) and post-crisis mood of protectionism. JEL Codes: F14, C32, E32

scholarly journals The Importance of Trend Inflation in the Search for Missing Disinflation

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Todd E. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Inflation Forecasting ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Long Term Trend

Some inflation-forecasting models based on the Phillips curve suggest that there should have been more disinflation since the Great Recession than has shown up in core PCE or core CPI data. One way researchers have found to make the disinflation disappear is to remove the long-term unemployed from the overall unemployment measure that is typically used in the models. This analysis shows that the disinflation arises in such models because of the way they account for the long-term trend in inflation. Under a different measurement of trend inflation, which historical forecast accuracy suggests should be preferable, the recent path of inflation can be reasonably well explained by an inflation-forecasting model that incorporates the overall unemployment rate.

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert E. Beaton ◽  
James R. Chromy
Keyword(s):  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend

Disruptive Soft Law and Post-Crisis US Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham L. Newman ◽  
Elliot Posner
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soft Law ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Interaction

Chapter 6 examines the long-term effects of international soft law on policy in the United States since 2008. The extent and type of post-crisis US cooperation with foreign jurisdictions have varied considerably with far-reaching ramifications for international financial markets. Focusing on the international interaction of reforms in banking and derivatives, the chapter uses the book’s approach to understand US regulation in the wake of the Great Recession. The authors attribute seemingly random variation in the US relationship to foreign regulation and markets to differences in pre-crisis international soft law. Here, the existence (or absence) of robust soft law and standard-creating institutions determines the resources available to policy entrepreneurs as well as their orientation and attitudes toward international cooperation. Soft law plays a central role in the evolution of US regulatory reform and its interface with the rest of the world.

scholarly journals A Potential Risk Index Dataset for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Chinese Mainland (PRITC dataset V1.0)

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. 1791-1802
Author(s):  
Peiyan Chen ◽  
Hui Yu ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Jiajie Xin ◽  
Yi Lu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Potential Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Current Version ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Chinese Mainland ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractA dataset entitled “A potential risk index dataset for landfalling tropical cyclones over the Chinese mainland” (PRITC dataset V1.0) is described in this paper, as are some basic statistical analyses. Estimating the severity of the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall on the Chinese mainland based on observations from 1401 meteorological stations was proposed in a previous study, including an index combining TC-induced precipitation and wind (IPWT) and further information, such as the corresponding category level (CAT_IPWT), an index of TC-induced wind (IWT), and an index of TC-induced precipitation (IPT). The current version of the dataset includes TCs that made landfall from 1949–2018; the dataset will be extended each year. Long-term trend analyses demonstrate that the severity of the TC impacts on the Chinese mainland have increased, as embodied by the annual mean IPWT values, and increases in TCinduced precipitation are the main contributor to this increase. TC Winnie (1997) and TC Bilis (2006) were the two TCs with the highest IPWT and IPT values, respectively. The PRITC V1.0 dataset was developed based on the China Meteorological Administration’s tropical cyclone database and can serve as a bridge between TC hazards and their social and economic impacts.

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