scholarly journals The Power to Resist: Mobilization and the Logic of Terrorist Attacks in Civil War

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (13) ◽  
pp. 2029-2060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara M. T. Polo ◽  
Belén González
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Disaggregated Data ◽  
Over Time

Existing research has argued that terrorism is common in civil war because it is “effective.” Surprisingly, however, only some groups use terrorism during civil wars, while many refrain altogether. We also see considerable variation in the use of terrorism over time. This article presents a theory of terrorism as a mobilization strategy in civil war, taking into account benefits, costs, and temporal dynamics. We argue that the choice and the timing of terrorism arise from the interaction between conditions for effective mobilization and battlefield dynamics. Terrorism can mobilize support when it provokes indiscriminate government repression or when it radicalizes rebels’ constituency by antagonizing specific societal groups. The timing of attacks, however, is influenced by battlefield losses, which increase rebels’ need to rally civilian support. The analyses of new disaggregated data on rebels’ terrorist attacks during conflicts (1989–2009) and of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) tactics in Iraq and Syria support our theoretical argument.

‘The More Posed and Wise Advice’: The Fourth Earl of Dorset and the English Civil Wars

1991 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 797-829 ◽  
Author(s):  
David L. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Charles I ◽  
Over Time

‘To me he was always the embodiment of Cavalier romance.’ Thus Vita Sackville-West on her seventeenth-century ancestor, Edward Sackville, fourth earl of Dorset. Such labelling indicates the problems which still bedevil any study of Civil War royalism. Brian Wormald'sClarendonbrilliantly revealed that the men who joined Charles I in 1642 represented a broad range of opinion. Above all, he made us aware of a coherent group of moderate (‘constitutional’) royalists who throughout sought accommodation. There was a palpable difference of strategy between these people, who favoured royal concessions in order to prevent further military initiatives, and others who favoured military initiatives in order to prevent further royal concessions. Within these two basic matrices, there were further subtle inflections of attitude between individuals and within the same individual over time. But many such inflections remain murky. Wormald's lead was never followed through. Charles's supporters have consistently received less attention than those who remained with parliament; and among the royalists, moderates have attracted fewer studies than ‘cavaliers’ and ‘swordsmen’. There is thus an urgent need to clarify different varieties of royalism and especially to bring the constitutional royalists into sharper focus. However, before we can assess their wider aims and impact, we must first identify them; and here the inappropriate labels bestowed on so many of Charles's supporters create real problems. Anne Sumner has recently ‘de-mythologized’ John Digby, first earl of Bristol, revealing him as more complex and less intemperate than the ‘hawk’ of legend.

The Long-Term Electoral Legacies of Civil War in Young Democracies: Italy, 1946-1968

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (6) ◽  
pp. 927-961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Costalli ◽  
Andrea Ruggeri
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Party Organization ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Local Party

Are there long-term legacies of civil wars on the electoral geography of post-conflict democracies? We argue that parties derived from armed bands enjoy an organizational advantage in areas where they fought and won the war. Former combatants can create a strong local party organization that serves as a crucial mobilization tool for elections. Parties have strong incentives to institutionalize this organizational advantage and retain electoral strongholds over time. We test our theory on the case of Italy (1946-1968). Our findings indicate that, on average, the communist party managed to create a stronger organization in areas where its bands fought the resistance war against Nazi-Fascist forces—and left-wing parties had a better electoral performance in those areas in subsequent elections. A stronger party organization is correlated with a positive electoral performance for many years, while the direct effect of civil war on electoral patterns decays after few years.

Islamic State global expansion builds resilience

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Community ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Expansion ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group's expansion prospects Significance Over the past sixteen months, the international community has focused its campaign to counter the Islamic State group (ISG) primarily on Iraq and Syria. This approach overlooks ISG's accelerating regional affiliate programme, which gives ISG strategic resiliency outside of its "caliphate" within the two main countries. A strategy to defeat ISG cannot succeed without addressing its formal affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Impacts ISG's affiliate in Egypt will rekindle ties with extremist groups on mainland Egypt in order to launch more attacks. ISG will encourage new supporters globally to launch spectacular terrorist attacks. Russia's escalation in Syria will aid ISG's expansion by degrading the Syrian opposition and ensuring the continuation of the civil war.

Strategic Landpower

2019 ◽  
pp. 44-60
Author(s):  
Joel Hillison
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
September 11 ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Criminal Networks ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
State Actors ◽  
Over Time

While Clausewitz would suggest that the nature of war never changes, the nature of landpower has changed over time. Deviant globalization and the empowerment of non-state actors have increased the challenges in the application of landpower. Non-state actors, such as the Taliban, the Islamic State, Al Qa'ida, and Transnational Criminal Networks (TCN) are just a few examples. Since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, landpower has been employed to address a much broader range of traditional and non-traditional threats. While the United States has a strong record of accomplishment in successfully employing landpower at the tactical and operational levels, its ability to achieve desired political outcomes with the application of landpower is less stellar. By examining the diffusion of power and its impact on non-state actors, senior military leaders will be better equipped to employ landpower in pursuit of US interests. Leaders seeking to employ strategic landpower must improve their ability to link tactical and operational success to strategic victory.

Through the prism of Spain. Socio-economic causes of different outcomes of Russian and Spanish civil wars

2017 ◽  
pp. 142-155
Author(s):  
I. Rozinskiy ◽  
N. Rozinskaya
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
World War I ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Spanish Civil War ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Russian Civil War ◽  
World War ◽  
Common Features ◽  
Economic Well Being

The article examines the socio-economic causes of the outcome of the Spanish Civil War (1936-1936), which, as opposed to the Russian Civil War, resulted in the victory of the “Whites”. Choice of Spain as the object of comparison with Russia is justified not only by similarity of civil wars occurred in the two countries in the XX century, but also by a large number of common features in their history. Based on statistical data on the changes in economic well-being of different strata of Spanish population during several decades before the civil war, the authors formulate the hypothesis according to which the increase of real incomes of Spaniards engaged in agriculture is “responsible” for their conservative political sympathies. As a result, contrary to the situation in Russia, where the peasantry did not support the Whites, in Spain the peasants’ position predetermined the outcome of the confrontation resulting in the victory of the Spanish analogue of the Whites. According to the authors, the possibility of stable increase of Spanish peasants’ incomes was caused by the nation’s non-involvement in World War I and also by more limited, compared to Russia and some other countries, spending on creation of heavy (primarily military-related) industry in Spain.

Linking Identity Politics and Foreign Policy

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisel Hintz
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Process Tracing ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
Inside Out ◽  
Domestic Level ◽  
Over Time

This chapter provides clear definitions of the concepts the book uses and the theory of inside-out identity contestation it develops. The chapter defines competing identity proposals as suggested understandings of the national self that prescribe and proscribe specific behaviors and red lines as particularly intolerable points of contention among supporters of various proposals. It then argues that identity hegemony is the goal of these supporters, and contestation is the process by which the contours of identity debates change over time in supporters’ efforts to achieve hegemony. The chapter briefly reviews relevant literature to carve out space for the book’s theoretical argument: when supporters of a proposal are blocked at the domestic level, they take their fight “outside” through the use of international institutional conditionality, transnational activist networks, and/or diasporic politics. The chapter also discusses the methodology of intertextual analysis and process tracing employed in the study.

scholarly journals Acute symptoms of mild to moderate COVID-19 are highly heterogeneous across individuals and over time

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L Rodebaugh ◽  
Madelyn R Frumkin ◽  
Angela M Reiersen ◽  
Eric J Lenze ◽  
Michael S Avidan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Clinical Deterioration ◽  
Symptom Profiles ◽  
Fluctuating Course ◽  
The Common ◽  
Symptom Changes ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background The symptoms of COVID-19 appear to be heterogenous, and the typical course of these symptoms is unknown. Our objectives were to characterize the common trajectories of COVID-19 symptoms and assess how symptom course predicts other symptom changes as well as clinical deterioration. Methods 162 participants with acute COVID-19 responded to surveys up to 31 times for up to 17 days. Several statistical methods were used to characterize the temporal dynamics of these symptoms. Because nine participants showed clinical deterioration, we explored whether these participants showed any differences in symptom profiles. Results Trajectories varied greatly between individuals, with many having persistently severe symptoms or developing new symptoms several days after being diagnosed. A typical trajectory was for a symptom to improve at a decremental rate, with most symptoms still persisting to some degree at the end of the reporting period. The pattern of symptoms over time suggested a fluctuating course for many patients. Participants who showed clinical deterioration were more likely to present with higher reports of severity of cough and diarrhea. Conclusion The course of symptoms during the initial weeks of COVID-19 is highly heterogeneous and is neither predictable nor easily characterized using typical survey methods. This has implications for clinical care and early-treatment clinical trials. Additional research is needed to determine whether the decelerating improvement pattern seen in our data is related to the phenomenon of patients reporting long-term symptoms, and whether higher symptoms of diarrhea in early illness presages deterioration.

scholarly journals Longitudinal Patterns of Ethical Organisational Culture as a Context for Leaders’ Well-Being: Cumulative Effects Over 6 Years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mari Huhtala ◽  
Muel Kaptein ◽  
Joona Muotka ◽  
Taru Feldt
Keyword(s):  
Latent Profile Analysis ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Ethical Dilemmas ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Organisational Culture ◽  
Cumulative Effects ◽  
Ethical Culture ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the temporal dynamics of ethical organisational culture and how it associates with well-being at work when potential changes in ethical culture are measured over an extended period of 6 years. We used a person-centred study design, which allowed us to detect both typical and atypical patterns of ethical culture stability as well as change among a sample of leaders. Based on latent profile analysis and hierarchical linear modelling we found longitudinal, concurrent relations and cumulative gain and loss cycles between different ethical culture patterns and leaders’ well-being. Leaders in the strongest ethical culture pattern experienced the highest level of work engagement and a decreasing level of ethical dilemmas and stress. Leaders who gave the lowest ratings on ethical culture which also decreased over time reported the highest level of ethical dilemmas, stress, and burnout. They also showed a continuous increase in these negative outcomes over time. Thus, ethical culture has significant cumulative effects on well-being, and these longitudinal effects can be both negative and positive, depending on the experienced strength of the culture’s ethicality.

Stick Then Carrot: When Do Governments Give Amnesty during Civil War?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lesley-Ann Daniels
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Policy Choice ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Government

Abstract Governments grant amnesties to rebel groups during civil wars and this is a puzzle. Why would the government offer an amnesty, which can be interpreted as a signal of weakness? In certain circumstances, offering amnesty is a rational policy choice. Governments should give amnesties when they are winning: the risk of misinterpreted signals is lessened, costs are low, rebel groups are weakened, and so amnesty can be used instrumentally to encourage defection or division among foot soldiers or as an incentive to leaders. Therefore, the government capitalizes on its military advantage and offers amnesty in a “stick then carrot” tactic. Using a database of amnesties during conflicts from 1990 to 2011, the article shows that governments are more likely to give amnesties following high rebel deaths. The use of amnesty during conflict is nuanced and context is important when understanding strategic choices.

scholarly journals 520. Longitudinal Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Viruses in Hospitalized Adults

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S325-S326
Author(s):  
Lacy Simons ◽  
Ramon Lorenzo-Redondo ◽  
Hannah Nam ◽  
Scott C Roberts ◽  
Michael G Ison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Viral Load ◽  
Genome Sequencing ◽  
Viral Genome ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Hospital Staff ◽  
Therapeutic Interventions ◽  
Viral Loads ◽  
Qrt Pcr ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been accompanied by the emergence of viral mutations, some of which may have distinct virological and clinical consequences. While whole genome sequencing efforts have worked to map this viral diversity at the population level, little is known about how SARS-CoV-2 may diversify within a host over time. This is particularly important for understanding the emergence of viral resistance to therapeutic interventions and immune pressure. The goal of this study was to assess the change in viral load and viral genome sequence within patients over time and determine if these changes correlate with clinical and/or demographic parameters. Methods Hospitalized patients admitted to Northwestern Memorial Hospital with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were enrolled in a longitudinal study for the serial collection of nasopharyngeal specimens. Swabs were administered to patients by hospital staff every 4 ± 1 days for up to 32 days or until the patients were discharged. RNA was extracted from each specimen and viral loads were calculated by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). Specimens with qRT-PCR cycle threshold values less than or equal to 30 were subject to whole viral genome sequencing by reverse transcription, multiplex PCR, and deep sequencing. Variant populations sizes were estimated and subject to phylogenetic analysis relative to publicly available SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Sequence and viral load data were subsequently correlated to available demographic and clinical data. Results 60 patients were enrolled from March 26th to June 20th, 2020. We observed an overall decrease in nasopharyngeal viral load over time across all patients. However, the temporal dynamics of viral load differed on a patient-by-patient basis. Several mutations were also observed to have emerged within patients over time. Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in serially collected nasopharyngeal swabs in hospitalized adults as determined by qRT-PCR. Samples were collected every 4 ± 1 days (T#1–8) and viral load is displayed by log(copy number). Conclusion These data indicate that SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in the nasopharynx decrease over time and that the virus can accumulate mutations during replication within individual patients. Future studies will examine if some of these mutations may provide fitness advantages in the presence of therapeutic and/or immune selective pressures. Disclosures Michael G. Ison, MD MS, AlloVir (Consultant)

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