scholarly journals Fueling Factionalism? The Impact of Peace Processes on Rebel Group Fragmentation in Civil Wars

2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272095806
Author(s):  
Allard Duursma ◽  
Feike Fliervoet
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Rebel Group ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

While peace processes increase the likelihood that a civil war is resolved, they can also complicate peace by increasing the risk of rebel fragmentation. In this article, we argue that negotiations exacerbate pre-existing structural and substantial divisions within rebel organizations, therefore increasing the likelihood of a rebel split. More specifically, we put forward a theoretical framework that specifies why factions within a rebel group may disagree with the onset of negotiations, the conclusion of a peace agreement, or the implementation of an agreement—and thus break away during the peace process. We empirically assess the merit of this framework by systematically comparing the impact of these phases in a peace process on the fragmentation of rebel organizations. Using data that more accurately reflect the moment a rebel split takes place than earlier studies, we find that peace processes have a greater substantial impact on rebel fragmentation than previously assumed.

scholarly journals Impact of the Peace Agreement on the social determinants of health in Colombia

2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edna Johana Mondragón-Sánchez ◽  
Reinaldo Gutiérrez Barreiro ◽  
Marcos Venícios de Oliveira Lopes ◽  
Ana Karina Bezerra Pinheiro ◽  
Priscila de Souza Aquino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Determinants Of Health ◽  
Social Determinants ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Determinants Of Health ◽  
Structural Determinants ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze the impact of the Colombian Peace Agreement on the structural social determinants of health. Methods: a descriptive, ecological study, based on documentary data from 2008 to 2018. The records of victims, epidemiological indicators, and structural social determinants of health in Colombia were analyzed. Results: there was a correlation between the period in which the Peace Agreement process was developed and the indicators of structural determinants in health with p<0.05. With the Poisson regression analysis, the favorable correlations between the peace process and the determinants were confirmed, besides allowing the understanding of the changes in these indicators before the Peace Agreement. Conclusions: the implementation of the peace process has a positive impact on structural social determinants of health, which is observed by the beginning of the decrease of economic, educational, health, and social inequalities and inequities, a fact that offers the possibility of living in peace.

Peace Processes in Northern Ireland and Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Aytaç Kadioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Peace Initiatives ◽  
Elite Level ◽  
Resolution Processes ◽  
The Impact

This book assesses the impact of political, non-violent resolution efforts in the Northern Irish and Turkish-Kurdish peace processes. It offers an important contribution to conflict-resolution research, theorising the various stages involved in the attempted resolution of asymmetric conflicts. By relying on primary sources, including interviews and recently declassified archival papers, it presents an innovative framework for conflict resolution, a starting-point for further research on managing peace processes and ethno-nationalist conflicts. This book challenges the notion of ‘conflict resolution’ in these two peace processes, both far-reaching ethno-nationalist conflicts in the post-Cold War era. Incorporating fieldwork carried out until 2015, the book compares these conflicts during major peace attempts, from early secret talks and semi-official peace initiatives, to multilateral and internationalised conflict-resolution processes through not only main armed protagonists, but also independent third parties. It analyses the political resolution efforts for ending the IRA and PKK’s armed campaigns and establishing a peace agreement. It argues that peace initiatives are ongoing processes which contain not only formal peace initiatives, but also informal and secret peace efforts. It suggests that formal and informal initiatives together embody conflict resolution processes through three major aspects: backchannel communications as the unofficial aspect, peace organisations as the informal and semi-official aspect, and negotiations as the official aspect of conflict resolution efforts, which operate at the elite level of conflict resolution.

Fluid Tonicity Affects Peritoneal Characteristics Derived by 3-PORE Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 243-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Stachowska-Pietka ◽  
Jan Poleszczuk ◽  
Josep Teixido-Planas ◽  
Josep Bonet-Sol ◽  
Maria I. Troya-Saborido ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Fitting ◽  
Hydraulic Conductance ◽  
Membrane Properties ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peritoneal Membrane ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Pore Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

Background It is typically assumed that within short time-frames, patient-specific peritoneal membrane characteristics are constant and do not depend on the initial fluid tonicity and dwell duration. The aim of this study was to check whether this assumption holds when membrane properties are estimated using the 3-pore model (3PM). Methods Thirty-two stable peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients underwent 3 8-hour peritoneal equilibration tests (PETs) with different glucose-based solutions (1.36%, 2.27%, and 3.86%). Temporary drainage was performed at 1 and 4 hours. Glucose, urea, creatinine, sodium, and phosphate concentrations were measured in dialysate and blood samples. Three-pore model parameters were estimated for each patient and each 8-hour PET separately. In addition, model parameters were estimated using data truncated to the initial 4 hours of peritoneal dwell. Results In all cases, model-estimated parameter values were within previously reported ranges. The peritoneal absorption (PA) and diffusive permeability for all solutes except sodium increased with fluid tonicity, with about 18% increase when switching from glucose 2.27% to 3.86%. Glucose peritoneal reflection coefficient and osmotic conductance (OsmCond), and fraction of hydraulic conductance for ultrasmall pores decreased with fluid tonicity (over 40% when switching from glucose 1.36%). Model fitting to the truncated 4-hour data resulted in little change in the parameters, except for PA, peritoneal hydraulic conductance, and OsmCond, for which higher values for the 4-hour dwell were found. Conclusion Initial fluid tonicity has a substantial impact on the 3PM-estimated characteristics of the peritoneal membrane, whereas the impact of dwell duration was relatively small and possibly influenced by the change in the patient's activity.

Managing the Tension between Inclusionary and Exclusionary Processes: Building Peace in Burundi

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth McClintock ◽  
Térence Nahimana
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Peace Accords ◽  
Exclusive Processes

AbstractThe tension between inclusive and exclusive approaches is present throughout peace processes. The challenge of facilitators, mediators, and parties alike is to determine how to manage these tensions, how to integrate various processes into a comprehensive whole and ensure that those required to implement the peace agreement have access to the process that creates the peace agreement. In particular, how can civil society, an actor of ever-increasing importance in the implementation of peace agreements, be effectively included in the design of the accords? This article examines the tension between inclusive and exclusive processes within the context of the Burundi peace process and the development of the Arusha Peace Accords.

scholarly journals The Global Economic Impact of Terrorism

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Dumitru-Mihai Luca
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Poverty And Inequality ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Terrorist Acts ◽  
Effects Of Violence ◽  
The Impact

In general, when analyzing the costs of armed conflict, the literature most often relates to civil wars or interstate conflicts. The moment of September 11, 2001 marked the beginning of a new concern in the economy, namely the economic cost of terrorism. Terrorism is a form of conflict in which acts of violence are directed at non-combatants or civilians who are usually unrelated to the political target of the group that committed it. This article analyzes existing data on the costs of terrorist acts that are committed by non-state parties or subnational groups. In this article, we will also look at the impact that terrorism has on the world economy (including both developed and underdeveloped states). We will find that although it has a significant impact on the global economy, the most devastating effects of violence are felt by underdeveloped economies whose poverty and inequality do not allow for a rapid and sustained response to terrorism.

scholarly journals Human Mobility and Epidemic Evolution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Vanni ◽  
David Lambert ◽  
Luigi Palatella ◽  
Paolo Grigolini
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Infection Age ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Age Structured Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The CoViD-19 pandemic ceased to be describable by a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model when lockdowns were enforced. We introduce a theoretical framework to explain and predict changes in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) in terms of individual mobility and interpersonal proximity (alongside other epidemiological and environmental variables) during and after the lockdown period. We use an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation. The model predicts the evolution of the reproduction number up to a week ahead of well-established estimates used in the literature. We show how lockdown policies, via reduction of proximity and mobility, reduce the impact of CoViD-19 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We validate our theoretical framework using data from Google, Voxel51, Unacast, The CoViD-19 Mobility Data Network, and Analisi Distribuzione Aiuti.

scholarly journals On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Vanni ◽  
David Lambert ◽  
Luigi Palatella ◽  
Paolo Grigolini
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Infection Age ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Age Structured Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe reproduction number of an infectious disease, such as CoViD-19, can be described through a modified version of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent contact rate, where mobility data are used as proxy of average movement trends and interpersonal distances. We introduce a theoretical framework to explain and predict changes in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of aggregated individual mobility and interpersonal proximity (alongside other epidemiological and environmental variables) during and after the lockdown period. We use an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation. The model predicts the evolution of the reproduction number up to a week ahead of well-established estimates used in the literature. We show how lockdown policies, via reduction of proximity and mobility, reduce the impact of CoViD-19 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We validate our theoretical framework using data from Google, Voxel51, Unacast, The CoViD-19 Mobility Data Network, and Analisi Distribuzione Aiuti.

“Spoiling” in the Public Sphere: Political Opposition to Peace Negotiations and the Referendum Campaign in Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Joana Amaral
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Peace referendums can be exploited by political actors who may gain politically from opposing a peace process. This article explores how political opposition affects peace negotiations, particularly when a referendum is used to ratify an agreement, through the study of the Colombian peace negotiations between the government of President Santos and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). It finds that the exclusive character of the negotiations, coupled with their confidentiality, contributed to the political opposition’s capacity to influence public opinion against the peace process and to reject the peace agreement in the 2016 referendum. This qualitative study is based on the content analysis of reports, memoirs and interviews with key negotiation delegates, journalists and representatives of the referendum campaigns. It argues that political inclusion in peace negotiations can help prevent referendum spoiling, while public information and education during the negotiations can reduce the impact of disinformation and manipulation campaigns.

Strategic Peacebuilding and the Sudanese Peace Process

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-96
Author(s):  
Peter Dixon
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Ideal Type ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Strategic Approach ◽  
External Intervention ◽  
Political Settlement

A strategic approach to peacebuilding seeks to achieve stable peace through an inclusive, comprehensive, and sustained peace process that complements a political settlement with other cooperative and mutually supportive activities. Such a process, grounded in recognition of the complex causation of violent conflict and a ‘positive peace’ concept, remains an ideal type rarely if ever found in the real world. This chapter compares the process leading to and following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan with this ideal, focusing particularly on external intervention. It briefly examines the historical background and causes of the conflict before considering which ‘ideal’ elements were present and which were missing in the peace process, the reasons why this was so and the material and ideational constraints that prevented the ‘Naivasha Process’ from achieving the perhaps unattainable ideal. The chapter thus seeks to develop constructive lessons for those planning for or conducting peace processes.

scholarly journals Conceptual Ambiguity in Coding the Categories of Peace Agreement and Peace Process

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoav Kapshuk
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Peace And Conflict Studies ◽  
Peace And Conflict ◽  
Data Production ◽  
Core Concepts ◽  
Fuzzy Boundary ◽  
Complicated Task

AbstractWithin the field of peace and conflict studies, data-production on peace agreements has rapidly increased. One complicated task for scholars and practitioners alike is understanding the relationships between peace agreements and the relationships between agreements and processes. For example, discerning when an agreement establishes continuity with previous agreements and, thus, belongs to the same peace process or when an agreement signals the start of a new peace process is not straightforward. In this study, I highlight what appears to be a fuzzy boundary for categorizing some disciplinary core concepts which, in turn, can cause our data to be unreliable. As a point of comparison, I investigate how two major peace agreement datasets – UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset and PA-X Peace Agreement Dataset – associate peace agreements with peace processes and find differences and ambiguities with respect to how they are coded in both databases. As a result of such inconsistencies, analyses drawn from these data can have different outputs and lead to misunderstandings about peace processes. Here, I demonstrate the disciplinary need for clearer principles to effectively associate peace agreements with peace processes and then argue for developing a disciplinary standard for the criteria used to operationalize peace processes. Crucially, a standard method for aggregating agreements into processes will facilitate consistent data production across databases.

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