Sanctioning the Homeland: Diasporas’ Influence on American Economic Sanctions Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 002200272110426
Author(s):  
Tyler Kustra
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
American Government ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The U.S

Why do some immigrant groups succeed in influencing the U.S. government to impose economic sanctions on their former dictators, while others do not? This paper begins by noting that the president is the pivotal player in sanctions policy and that presidents cater to voters in swing states. Therefore, a diaspora’s proportion of the swing-state electorate should determine whether the American government imposes sanctions on their former homeland. Considering dictatorships from 1946 to 2005, this paper finds that a one-percentage-point increase in the diaspora’s proportion of the swing-state electorate increases the probability of regime-change sanctions by 11 percentage points. It then calculates causal estimates of the effectiveness of these sanctions on regime change. Using the diaspora’s proportion of the swing-state electorate as an instrumental variable for the presence of economic sanctions, it finds that sanctions do not have a positive, statistically-significant impact on regime change while a negative impact is plausible.

scholarly journals Neighborhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Jay ◽  
Jacob Bor ◽  
Elaine Nsoesie ◽  
Sarah Ketchen Lipson ◽  
David K. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
High Income ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Neighborhood Income ◽  
The U.S ◽  
At Home

AbstractIntroductionAlthough physical distancing has been the primary strategy to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., people’s ability to distance may vary by socioeconomic characteristics, leading to higher transmission risk in low-income neighborhoods.MethodsWe used mobility data from a large, anonymized sample of smartphone users to assess the relationship between neighborhood median household income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We assessed changes in several behaviors including: spending the day entirely at home; working outside the home; and visits to supermarkets, parks, hospitals, and other locations. We also assessed differences in effects of state policies on physical distancing across neighborhood income levels.ResultsWe found a strong gradient between neighborhood income and physical distancing. Compared to January and February 2020, the proportion of individuals spending the day entirely at home in April 2020 increased by 10.9 percentage points in low-income neighborhoods and by 27.1 percentage points in high-income neighborhoods. During April 2020, people in low-income neighborhoods were more likely to work outside the home, compared to people in higher-income neighborhoods, but not more likely to visit non-work locations. State physical distancing orders were associated with a 1.5 percentage-point increase (95% CI [0.9, 2.1], p < 0.001) in staying home in low-income neighborhoods and a 2.4 percentage point increase (95% CI [1.4, 3.4], p < 0.001) in high-income neighborhoods.DiscussionPeople in lower-income neighborhoods have faced barriers to physical distancing, particularly the need to work outside the home. State physical distancing policies have not mitigated these disparities.

scholarly journals Effect of deforestation on access to clean drinking water

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (17) ◽  
pp. 8249-8254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annie Mwayi Mapulanga ◽  
Hisahiro Naito
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Clean Drinking Water ◽  
Forest Science

Using satellite data on deforestation and weather in Malawi and linking those datasets with household survey datasets, we estimate the causal effect of deforestation on access to clean drinking water. In the existing literature on forest science and hydrology, the consensus is that deforestation increases water yield. In this study, we directly examine the causal effect of deforestation on households’ access to clean drinking water. Results of the two-stage least-squares (2SLS) with cluster and time fixed-effect estimations illustrate strong empirical evidence that deforestation decreases access to clean drinking water. Falsification tests show that the possibility of our instrumental variable picking up an unobserved time trend is very unlikely. We find that a 1.0-percentage-point increase in deforestation decreases access to clean drinking water by 0.93 percentage points. With this estimated impact, deforestation in the last decade in Malawi (14%) has had the same magnitude of effect on access to clean drinking water as that of a 9% decrease in rainfall.

The Effect of Taxation and Corruption on Firm Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Vietnam

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Bich Le Thi Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
International Development ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze empirically the impact of taxation and corruption on the growth of manufacturing firms in Vietnam. The study employed pooled OLS estimation and then instrument variables with fixed effect for the panel data of 1377 firms in Vietnam from 2005 to 2011. These data were obtained from the survey of the Central Institute for Economic Management and the Danish International Development Agency. The results show that both taxation and corruption are negatively associated with firm growth measured by firm sales adjusted according to the GDP deflator. A one-percentage point increase in the bribery rate is linked with a reduction of 16,883 percentage points in firm revenue, over four and a half times bigger than the effect of a one-percentage point increase in the tax rate. From the findings of this research, the author recommends the Vietnam government to lessen taxation on firms and that there should be an urgent revolution in anti-corruption policies as well as bureaucratic improvement in Vietnam.

scholarly journals Planning prompts to promote uptake of HIV services among men: a randomised trial in rural Uganda

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. e003390
Author(s):  
Nolan M Kavanagh ◽  
Elisabeth M Schaffer ◽  
Alex Ndyabakira ◽  
Kara Marson ◽  
Diane V Havlir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hiv Testing ◽  
Community Health ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Health Campaign ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Cost Planning ◽  
Testing Uptake ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionInterventions informed by behavioural economics, such as planning prompts, have the potential to increase HIV testing at minimal or no cost. Planning prompts have not been previously evaluated for HIV testing uptake. We conducted a randomised clinical trial to evaluate the effectiveness of low-cost planning prompts to promote HIV testing among men.MethodsWe randomised adult men in rural Ugandan parishes to receive a calendar planning prompt that gave them the opportunity to make a plan to get tested for HIV at health campaigns held in their communities. Participants received either a calendar showing the dates when the community health campaign would be held (control group) or a calendar showing the dates and prompting them to select a date and time when they planned to attend (planning prompt group). Participants were not required to select a date and time or to share their selection with study staff. The primary outcome was HIV testing uptake at the community health campaign.ResultsAmong 2362 participants, 1796 (76%) participants tested for HIV. Men who received a planning prompt were 2.2 percentage points more likely to test than the control group, although the difference was not statistically significant (77.1% vs 74.9%; 95% CI –1.2 to 5.7 percentage points, p=0.20). The planning prompt was more effective among men enrolled ≤40 days before the campaigns (3.6 percentage-point increase in testing; 95% CI –2.9 to 10.1, p=0.27) than among men enrolled >40 days before the campaigns (1.8 percentage-point increase; 95% CI –2.3 to 5.8, p=0.39), although the effects within the subgroups were not significant.ConclusionThese findings suggest that planning prompts may be an effective behavioural intervention to promote HIV testing at minimal or no cost. Large-scale studies should further assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of such interventions.

scholarly journals Inventor Gender and the Direction of Invention

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 250-254
Author(s):  
Rembrand Koning ◽  
Sampsa Samila ◽  
John-Paul Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase

We study whether increasing the share of female inventors leads to more biomedical inventions that focus on the needs of women. After accounting for detailed disease-technology, disease-year, and technology-year fixed effects, we find that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of female inventors in a research area yields 1.2 percentage points more female-focused patents. Notably, this effect only holds for female-led invention teams. Areas with a greater share of female inventors in supporting roles do not produce more female-focused inventions. For gender to impact the direction of invention, it appears that women must occupy positions of power.

scholarly journals American Idol: Evidence on Same-Race Preferences

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungmin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Racial Composition ◽  
Television Show ◽  
American Idol ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Racial Preferences ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Popular Television ◽  
Voting Mechanism

Abstract This paper examines whether viewers of the popular television show, American Idol, exhibit racial preferences. We find evidence on same-race preferences among black viewers only: when there are more black contestants in the show, more black viewers are tuned in to watch it. The result is robust after we account for the endogeneity problem regarding the contestants' racial composition, which arises due to the voting mechanism. Our point estimates tell that a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of black contestants increases viewership ratings for black households by about 1.3 percentage points.

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rüdiger Bachmann ◽  
Tim O. Berg ◽  
Eric R. Sims
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

There have been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations to stimulate spending. We examine the relationship between expected inflation and spending attitudes using the microdata from the Michigan Survey of Consumers. The impact of higher inflation expectations on the reported readiness to spend on durables is generally small, outside the zero lower bound, often statistically insignificant, and inside of it typically significantly negative. In our baseline specification, a one percentage point increase in expected inflation during the recent zero lower bound period reduces households' probability of having a positive attitude towards spending by about 0.5 percentage points. (JEL D12, D84, E21, E31, E52)

Spillover effects of the Venezuelan crisis: migration impacts in Colombia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
German Caruso ◽  
Christian Gomez Canon ◽  
Valerie Mueller
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Labour Supply ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Supply Shock ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Instrumental Variables Approach ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract In the wake of the Venezuelan crisis, Colombian migrants are returning to their place of birth. Since 2016, however, there has been a spike of immigration to Colombia attributable to inflows of the Venezuelan-born. Using high-frequency administrative data, we estimate the impacts of the recent labour supply shock–driven by the economic predicament in Venezuela–on the labour and poverty outcomes of native Colombians. We employ an instrumental variables approach to account for the selection of immigrants into locations with more or less desirable conditions. A 1 percentage point increase in immigration from Venezuela reduces informal sector wages by 10 percentage points in urban areas. As the crisis increased the fraction of migrants by 0.2 percentage points in 2017, we estimate urban wages decreased by a total of 2 percentage points. A dual-pronged approach is warranted to promote the economic assimilation of Venezuelans while protecting the job security of Colombians.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Effects of School Racial Diversity on Political Identity

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen B. Billings ◽  
Eric Chyn ◽  
Kareem Haggag
Keyword(s):  
Early Life ◽  
Political Identity ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Racial Diversity ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Childhood Play

How do early-life experiences shape political identity? We examine the end of race-based busing in Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools, an event that led to large changes in school racial composition. Using administrative data, we compare party affiliation in adulthood for students who had lived on opposite sides of newly drawn school boundaries. Consistent with the contact hypothesis, we find that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of minorities in a White student’s assigned school decreased their likelihood of registering as a Republican by 2 percentage points (12 percent). Our results suggest that schools in childhood play an important role in shaping partisanship. (JEL D72, H75, I21, I28, J15)

scholarly journals A randomized controlled trial study of the acceptability, feasibility, and preliminary impact of SITA (SMS as an Incentive To Adhere): A mobile technology-based intervention informed by behavioral economics to improve ART adherence among youth in Uganda

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah MacCarthy ◽  
Zachary Wagner ◽  
Alexandra Mendoza-Graf ◽  
Carlos Ignacio Gutierrez ◽  
Clare Samba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Randomized Controlled Trial ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Art Adherence ◽  
Antiretroviral Adherence ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
New Strategy

Abstract Background: Studies report serious adherence problems among youth (individuals age 15-24 years of age) in Uganda. Recent growth in mobile phone ownership has highlighted the potential of using text-based interventions to improve antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence among Ugandan youth. We piloted a randomized controlled trial of a text-based intervention providing weekly real-time antiretroviral adherence feedback, based on information from a smart pill box, to HIV-positive Ugandan youth. In this paper, we report the acceptability, feasibility, and preliminary impact of the intervention. Methods: We randomized participants to a control group, or to receive messages with information on either their own adherence levels (Treatment 1 - T1), or their own adherence and peer adherence levels (Treatment 2 – T2). We conducted six focus groups from December 2016 to March 2017 with providers and youth ages 15-24, double coded 130 excerpts, and achieved a pooled Cohen’s Kappa of 0.79 and 0.80 based on 34 randomly selected excerpts. Results: The quantitative and qualitative data show that the intervention was deemed acceptable and feasible. After controlling for baseline adherence, the T1 group had 3.8 percentage point lower adherence than the control group (95% CI -9.9, 2.3) and the T2 group had 2.4 percentage points higher adherence than the control group (95% CI -3.0, 7.9). However, there was an increasing treatment effect over time for the T2 group with the largest effect towards the end of the study; a 2.5 percentage point increase in the initial 9-weeks that grows steadily to 9.0 percentage points by the last 9-weeks of the study. We find negative treatment effects for T1 in 3 of the 4 9-week intervals. This pilot study was not designed to detect statistically significant differences. Conclusions: Improving youth’s adherence by supplementing information about their adherence with information about the adherence of peers is a promising new strategy that should be further evaluated in a fully-powered study. Providing one’s own adherence information alone appears to have less potential.

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