Do nonproliferation agreements constrain?

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332097135
Author(s):  
Bradley C Smith ◽  
William Spaniel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Proficiency Levels ◽  
Technological Constraint ◽  
Do So

One way nuclear agreements might keep signatories from proliferating is by constraining nuclear capacity. Theoretical work on nonproliferation often points to such constraints as an important driver of nonproliferation success. Some have argued that, absent sufficient constraint, states with the desire and capability to proliferate will do so. Faced with more costly routes to a weapon, states subject to technological constraint may abide by the terms of the deal. This perspective poses an important empirical question: do nonproliferation agreements result in significant technological constraint in practice? This article evaluates the empirical prevalence of constraints arising from nonproliferation deals. Doing so requires (1) providing an appropriate measure of nuclear proficiency and (2) developing an estimate of the counterfactual, no-agreement capacity of states that received such agreements. This study addresses both of these points. First, new data are gathered to estimate proficiency, improving upon existing measures in the literature. Second, the generalized synthetic control method is applied to estimate counterfactual proficiency levels for the recipients of agreements. With this approach, the constraining effects of deals the United States implemented with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan and the Declaration of Iguaçu between Brazil and Argentina are evaluated. The findings indicate that the constraining effect of these nonproliferation agreements is minimal.

scholarly journals The effect of reopening policy on COVID-19 related cases and deaths

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiyao Zhou
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Test Data ◽  
Control Method ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method

AbstractBy May 29, 2020, all 50 states in the United States had reopened their economies to some extent after the coronavirus lockdown. Although there are many debates about whether states reopened their economies too early, no study has examined this effect quantitatively. This paper takes advantage of the daily cases, deaths, and test data at the state level, and uses the synthetic control method to address this question. I find that reopening the economy caused an additional 2000 deaths in the 6 states (Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas) that reopened before May 1st by three weeks after reopening. It also increased daily confirmed cases by 40%, 52%, and 53% after the first, second, and third week of reopening, respectively. Moreover, contrary to scientists’ prescription that expanding tests is a necessary condition for reopening, these states witnessed a decline in daily tests by 17%, 47%, and 31% after the first, second, and third week of reopening, respectively.

Do Local Immigrant-Welcoming Efforts Increase Immigration? The Detroit Experience

2021 ◽  
pp. 107808742110252
Author(s):  
Xi Huang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Local Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Skilled Immigrants ◽  
The Past

Immigration policymaking has been active at the local level in the United States over the past few decades. This study examines whether the economic development-oriented immigrant-welcoming efforts that started in 2010 in Detroit have increased the local immigrant population. It uses the synthetic control method to construct a comparison region that resembles Detroit in the preintervention periods to serve as a counterfactual. Empirical results reveal a statistically significant increase in the immigrant share of the population in the metropolitan area during the postintervention period of 2011–2014. The increase is robust to various sets of specifications and placebo tests. The share of high-skilled immigrants in the local population also increased during this time, albeit with a weak statistical significance. These findings point to the potential of immigrant-welcoming programs in attracting and retaining immigrants and immigrant talent.

Pyongyang provocations signal end of detente

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Peace Accord ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Supreme Leader ◽  
Do So

Significance It had threatened to do so during a fortnight of ever more violent rhetoric against South Korea and its president, spearheaded by supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong. Pyongyang now threatens to nullify the 2018 peace accord by reactivating vacant border guard posts and holding military exercises near the Demilitarised Zone. Impacts President Donald Trump’s impulsiveness and a live dispute over history between Seoul and Tokyo hamper a coordinated response. Trump is unlikely to perceive yielding to pressure from Kim as something that will boost his chances of re-election. Tokyo’s recent suspension of a new missile defence project will reduce its ability to protect the United States from North Korean missiles. Increasing hostility between Washington and Beijing may reduce the latter’s willingness to put pressure on Pyongyang.

Do Large Corporate Tax Cuts Boost Wages? Evidence from Ohio

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliakim Kakpo
Keyword(s):  
Income Tax ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Corporate Tax ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Do So

Abstract This paper evaluates a natural experiment which occurred in Ohio in 2005 when the state amended the tax system. The change sets up a dramatic corporate tax cut of 8.3 percentage points (p.p.) over the period 2006–2010 corresponding to a 96.9% reduction in the tax. Policymakers also reduced the personal income tax over the same period by 0.95 percentage point (p.p.). I investigate the incidence of the reform on wages in general and corporate wages in the short-run. To do so, I use a synthetic control method along with an event study design applied to individual records of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The results in this paper suggest that the corporate tax cut may have resulted in a one-time payment in corporate wages at the onset of the reform.

scholarly journals Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiqing Xu
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Control Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Fixed Effects Models ◽  
Interactive Fixed Effects

Difference-in-differences (DID) is commonly used for causal inference in time-series cross-sectional data. It requires the assumption that the average outcomes of treated and control units would have followed parallel paths in the absence of treatment. In this paper, we propose a method that not only relaxes this often-violated assumption, but also unifies the synthetic control method (Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller 2010) with linear fixed effects models under a simple framework, of which DID is a special case. It imputes counterfactuals for each treated unit using control group information based on a linear interactive fixed effects model that incorporates unit-specific intercepts interacted with time-varying coefficients. This method has several advantages. First, it allows the treatment to be correlated with unobserved unit and time heterogeneities under reasonable modeling assumptions. Second, it generalizes the synthetic control method to the case of multiple treated units and variable treatment periods, and improves efficiency and interpretability. Third, with a built-in cross-validation procedure, it avoids specification searches and thus is easy to implement. An empirical example of Election Day Registration and voter turnout in the United States is provided.

scholarly journals The effects of a place-based tax cut and minimum wage increase on labor market outcomes

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez ◽  
Victor Delgado ◽  
Alexis Rodas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Control Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Free Zone ◽  
Northern Border ◽  
Formal Employment

AbstractThe benefits of place-based policies are still under debate. In this study, we analyze what is probably one of the boldest interventions in the recent history of Mexico and the rest of the world: the Northern Border Free Zone (NBFZ). Launched in January 2019, this program doubles the minimum wage and substantially lowers taxes in 43 municipalities along the border with the United States, aiming to improve living standards for low-wage workers and foster economic activity within the region. Given the unique features of the NBFZ, we estimate its short-run effects on labor outcomes: employment, wages, and formality. Our primary identification strategy follows a synthetic control method employing monthly administrative data at the municipality level for the period 2015–2019. Using administrative data for formal employment, we find that the policy substantially increased labor income in the NBFZ by approximately 9% over the control municipalities. The results for employment are less clear. Formal employment showed 1.6% less growth in the NBFZ than in the control municipalities, but the estimate is imprecise and we cannot reject a null impact of the program on employment. These results are robust to alternative control groups, including metropolitan areas in the United States. We also use the labor force survey to estimate the effects on formality at the individual level and find results closer to a null effect. These two results suggest that the NBFZ did not substantially affect employment, and the intersection of confidence intervals for the two estimates implies a maximum loss of employment of approximately 24,000 jobs.

Writing Time in Metaphors

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer J. Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Entire System ◽  
Language And Culture ◽  
Space Race ◽  
Do So

Coherence of place often exists alongside irregularities in time in cycles, and chapter three turns to cycles linked by temporal markers. Ray Bradbury’s The Martian Chronicles (1950) follows a linear chronology and describes the exploration, conquest, and repopulation of Mars by humans. Conversely, Louise Erdrich’s Love Medicine (1984) jumps back and forth across time to narrate the lives of interconnected families in the western United States. Bradbury’s cycle invokes a confluence of historical forces—time as value-laden, work as a calling, and travel as necessitating standardized time—and contextualizes them in relation to anxieties about the space race. Erdrich’s cycle invokes broader, oppositional conceptions of time—as recursive and arbitrary and as causal and meaningful—to depict time as implicated in an entire system of measurement that made possible the destruction and exploitation of the Chippewa people. Both volumes understand the United States to be preoccupied with imperialist impulses. Even as they critique such projects, they also point to the tenacity with which individuals encounter these systems, and they do so by creating “interstitial temporalities,” which allow them to navigate time at the crossroads of language and culture.

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