Trend Output and the Output Gap in the UK

2011 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. F63-F74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Technical Progress ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

This note looks at estimates of the current scale of the output gap in the UK and at the factors that affect estimates of the trend rate of growth. These issues are central to the debate on macroeconomic policy, both in the short and the long run. The speed at which the economy returns to full capacity, along with the scale of the output gap, will be important factors affecting average growth over the next five years. In the longer term, trend growth at full capacity is not immutable, but rather depends upon the rate of labour augmenting technical progress and the growth of the labour force. In the medium term these factors can be added to by temporary bursts of capital augmenting technical progress and by changes in the user cost of capital that may change the optimal capital-output ratio. Other factors, such as the cost of materials, also affect potential output. Over the past few months there has also been a significant rise in oil prices, and we judge this to have a strong permanent component which will reduce trend growth in the short term and trend output in the longer term. Its implications are more fully discussed in Barrell, Delannoy and Holland in this Review.

The UK Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 11-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

Since the beginning of 1995 output has been growing at a quarterly rate of just under ½ per cent, slightly less than most estimates of the trend growth rate that the economy can sustain in the long run. As a consequence, there has been no progress in closing any pre-existing output gap. Over this period, there has been a lack of any domestically generated inflationary pressure. Indeed, if import prices had not risen sharply in 1995, the underlying rate of inflation would have remained below 2½ per cent.

Economic Growth in Europe

2007 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 65-68
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Trend Growth

Economic growth in Europe has been disappointing in the past few years, especially when compared to the US, and in addition growth in the UK has looked more robust than that in the large continental economies. There could be many factors that contribute to these differences, and they are addressed in the articles by Crafts; Barrell, Guillemineau and Holland; Mc Morrow and Röger; and Bebee and Hunt in this Review. This introduction discusses some of the factors affecting growth, and draws some conclusions from these studies that help us understand why growth may differ between countries for sustained periods of time, and also why underlying, or trend growth rates may vary over time.

scholarly journals Factors affecting adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 infections in the first year of the pandemic in the UK

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e054200
Author(s):  
Xuejie Ding ◽  
David M Brazel ◽  
Melinda C Mills
Keyword(s):  
Labour Force ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
First Year ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Lower Infection ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Infection Study

ObjectiveNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including wearing face covering/masks, social distancing and working from home, have been introduced to control SARS-CoV-2 infections. We provide individual-level empirical evidence of whether adherence reduces infections.Setting and participantsThe COVID-19 Infection Study (CIS) was used from 10 May 2020 to 2 February 2021 with 409 009 COVID-19 nose and throat swab tests nested in 72 866 households for 100 138 individuals in the labour force aged 18–64.AnalysisORs for a positive COVID-19 test were calculated using multilevel logistic regression models, stratified by sex and time, by an index of autonomy to abide by NPIs, adjusted for various socioeconomic and behavioural covariates.ResultsInability to comply with NPIs predicted higher infections when individuals reported not wearing a face covering outside. The main effect for inability to comply was OR 0.79 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.92), for wearing face covering/masks was OR 0.29 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.56) and the interaction term being OR 1.25 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.46). The youngest age groups had a significantly higher risk of infection (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.82) as did women in larger households (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). Effects varied over time with autonomy to follow NPIs only significant in the pre-second lockdown May–November 2020 period. Wearing a face covering outside was a significant predictor of a lower chance of infection before mid-December 2020 when a stricter second lockdown was implemented (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.73).ConclusionThe protective effect of wearing a face covering/mask was the strongest for those who were the most unable to comply with NPIs. Higher infection rates were in younger groups and women in large households. Wearing a face covering or mask outside the home consistently and significantly predicted lower infection before the 2020 Christmas period and among women.

Independent commissions and labour migration: The British MAC

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin ◽  
Martin Ruhs
Keyword(s):  
Labour Force ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Independent Evidence ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Labour Immigration ◽  
British Labour ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
The Uk

The independent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) was created in 2007 after a decade in which the share of foreign-born workers in the British labour force doubled to 13 per cent. The initial core mandate of the MAC was to provide “independent, evidence-based advice to government on specific skilled occupations in the labour market where shortages exist which can sensibly be filled by migration.” The MAC's answers to these 3-S questions, viz, is the occupation for which employers are requesting foreign workers skilled, are there labour shortages, and is admitting foreign workers a sensible response, have improved the quality of the debate over the “need” for foreign workers in the UK by highlighting some of the important trade-offs inherent in migration policy making. The MAC can clarify migration trade-offs in labour immigration policy, but cannot decide the ultimately political questions about whose interests should be prioritised and how competing policy objectives should be balanced.

scholarly journals Identifying Risk Factors Affecting the Usage of Digital and Social Media: A Preliminary Qualitative Study in the Dental Profession and Dental Education

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Rayan Sharka ◽  
Jonathan P. San Diego ◽  
Melanie Nasseripour ◽  
Avijit Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Dental Education ◽  
Dental Students ◽  
General Context ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Dental Professionals

Aims: This study aimed to identify the risk factors of using DSM to provide an insight into the inherent implications this has on dental professionals in practice and trainee professionals’ education. Materials and methods: Twenty-one participants (10 dental professionals and 11 undergraduate and postgraduate dental students) participated in this qualitative study using semi-structured interviews in a dental school in the UK. The interviews were analysed and categorised into themes, some of which were identified from previous literature (e.g., privacy and psychological risks) and others emerged from the data (e.g., deceptive and misleading information). Results: The thematic analysis of interview transcripts identified nine perceived risk themes. Three themes were associated with the use of DSM in the general context, and six themes were related to the use of DSM in professional and education context. Conclusions: This study provided evidence to understand the risk factors of using DSM in dental education and the profession, but the magnitude of these risks on the uptake and usefulness of DSM needs to be assessed.

scholarly journals Factors affecting consultant attitudes to undertaking undergraduate medical student teaching in the UK: a systematic review

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. e042653
Author(s):  
Isobel Marion Harris ◽  
Heather McNeilly ◽  
Hani Benamer ◽  
Derek J Ward ◽  
Alice J Sitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Medical Students ◽  
Student Teaching ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Undergraduate Medical Students ◽  
Systematic Review Methodology ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Medical Student Teaching ◽  
The Uk

ObjectiveThis systematic review aimed to explore consultant attitudes towards teaching undergraduate medical students in the UK.DesignSystematic review.MethodologyStandard systematic review methodology was followed. MEDLINE, EMBASE and OpenGrey were searched from inception to August 2019 to identify studies exploring senior doctors’ attitudes towards teaching undergraduate medical students. Two reviewers independently carried out key methodological steps including study screening/selection, quality assessment and data extraction. A narrative synthesis was undertaken.ResultsFive studies were included in the review dating 2003–2015. Two studies used questionnaires, and three used focus groups/semistructured interviews. Key findings identified across all studies were consultants generally found teaching undergraduate medical students enjoyable, and consultants identified time constraints as a barrier to teaching. Other findings were consultants feeling there was a lack of recognition for time spent teaching, and a lack of training/guidance regarding teaching students.ConclusionsThis is the first systematic review to explore senior hospital doctors’ attitudes towards teaching undergraduate medical students. Despite these five studies spanning 12 years, the same attitudes and issues regarding teaching are identified by all, suggesting lack of time particularly is a persistent problem regarding consultant-based teaching. An anecdotal impression is that consultants are no longer as enthusiastic about teaching as they once were, but it is evident over the 12 years of these studies that enjoyment levels, and presumably enthusiasm, have not changed significantly.

ICT and the Returns to Schooling and Job-Specific Experience

2007 ◽  
Vol 201 ◽  
pp. 76-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rebecca Riley
Keyword(s):  
Labour Force ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Skill Levels ◽  
Returns To Schooling ◽  
Specific Experience ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Return To Schooling ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Industry Sectors

We use the United Kingdom Labour Force Survey to estimate the returns to schooling and job-specific experience in sixteen different industry sectors over the period 1994-2001. Next, assuming skill levels are fixed, we assess the marginal effect on these returns of the capital intensity of production and the ICT intensity of capital. Our results indicate that in the UK, over the period 1994-2001, the rising ICT intensity of capital was associated with a rise in the return to schooling, and a reduction in the return to job-specific experience.

An Exploratory Study of Organizational Governance in Publicly-Quoted Professional Service Firms

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 779-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark E. Pickering
Keyword(s):  
Professional Service ◽  
Governance Structures ◽  
Service Firms ◽  
Professional Service Firms ◽  
Organizational Governance ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Ultimate Failure ◽  
Publicly Owned ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Interpretive Scheme

There has been a trend of large professional service firms (PSFs) to move from the partnership form of ownership to alternative ownership forms. As part of this trend large, publicly-quoted accounting companies have emerged in Australia, the US and the UK. Research on how publicly-owned PSFs, including accounting companies, are governed, whether aspects of the governance of partnership persist, why particular governance interpretive schemes and associated structures and systems are implemented and implications for performance is sparse. This study explores the interpretive scheme of governance in two Australian publicly-quoted accounting companies and finds one of the companies to have mimicked the major attributes of the partnership interpretive scheme while the other company moved to a corporate form of governance eliminating all vestiges of the partnership interpretive scheme. Governance was found to have significant implications for the performance of the companies with moving from a partnership interpretive scheme contributing to the ultimate failure of one of the companies. The cases suggest that failed experiments in the governance of publicly-owned PSFs, a relatively recently emerged ownership form in some professions, may contribute to conflicting prior findings on the implications of ownership form for the performance of PSFs. Two alternative approaches to the introduction of corporate style governance structures and systems were identified with the findings suggesting potential benefits of evolution rather than revolution. Based on the findings, a theoretical model of the interpretive scheme of governance of publicly-traded PSFs is developed including factors affecting the interpretive scheme implemented and the introduction of more corporate-like governance structures and systems, potential performance implications of PSFs moving away from a partnership interpretive scheme and the conditions and contingencies under which the relationship may hold. The paper also extends the application of agency theory to publicly-owned PSFs.

Eastern European immigrants in the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Wage Gap ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Wage Distribution ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Defining Moment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Before And After ◽  
European Immigrants ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Eastern European Immigrants

PurposeThe paper aims at examining wage developments among Eastern European immigrants vs UK natives before and after the 2004 enlargement by measuring the extent to which inter-group wage differentials are explainable by these groups' changing attributes or by differences in returns to these characteristics. The enlargement has been a defining moment in British recent history and may have contributed to the unfolding of the events that have culminated in Brexit.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a quantitative analysis of the immigrant–native wage gap across the entire distribution by applying the methodology known as the unconditional quantile regression. The analysis is performed before and after the 2004 European Union enlargement to Eastern countries. The data used is the British Labour Force Survey (UK LFS) from 1998 to 2008.FindingsAt all distribution points, a major role is played by occupational downgrading, which increases over time. The results further suggest that the decreased wage levels at the top of the distribution stem mainly from low transferability of skills acquired in the source country.Research limitations/implicationsThe UK LFS does not allow to follow individuals for a long period of time. For this reason, the main limitation of the study is the impossibility to measure for individual-level trajectories in their labour market integration and to account for return migration.Originality/valueThe analysis provides a detailed picture of the wage differences between Eastern European immigrants and natives along the whole wage distribution. The paper also identifies possible causes of the wage gap decrease for EU8 immigrant workers after 2008.

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