scholarly journals Factors affecting adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 infections in the first year of the pandemic in the UK

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e054200
Author(s):  
Xuejie Ding ◽  
David M Brazel ◽  
Melinda C Mills
Keyword(s):  
Labour Force ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
First Year ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Lower Infection ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Infection Study

ObjectiveNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including wearing face covering/masks, social distancing and working from home, have been introduced to control SARS-CoV-2 infections. We provide individual-level empirical evidence of whether adherence reduces infections.Setting and participantsThe COVID-19 Infection Study (CIS) was used from 10 May 2020 to 2 February 2021 with 409 009 COVID-19 nose and throat swab tests nested in 72 866 households for 100 138 individuals in the labour force aged 18–64.AnalysisORs for a positive COVID-19 test were calculated using multilevel logistic regression models, stratified by sex and time, by an index of autonomy to abide by NPIs, adjusted for various socioeconomic and behavioural covariates.ResultsInability to comply with NPIs predicted higher infections when individuals reported not wearing a face covering outside. The main effect for inability to comply was OR 0.79 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.92), for wearing face covering/masks was OR 0.29 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.56) and the interaction term being OR 1.25 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.46). The youngest age groups had a significantly higher risk of infection (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.82) as did women in larger households (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06). Effects varied over time with autonomy to follow NPIs only significant in the pre-second lockdown May–November 2020 period. Wearing a face covering outside was a significant predictor of a lower chance of infection before mid-December 2020 when a stricter second lockdown was implemented (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.73).ConclusionThe protective effect of wearing a face covering/mask was the strongest for those who were the most unable to comply with NPIs. Higher infection rates were in younger groups and women in large households. Wearing a face covering or mask outside the home consistently and significantly predicted lower infection before the 2020 Christmas period and among women.

Morbid obesity in the UK: A modelling projection study to 2035

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Keaver ◽  
Benshuai Xu ◽  
Abbygail Jaccard ◽  
Laura Webber
Keyword(s):  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Morbid Obesity ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Morbidly Obese ◽  
Healthy Weight ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Annual Distribution ◽  
The Uk

Background: Morbid obesity (body mass index ⩾40 kg/m2) carries a higher risk of non-communicable disease and is associated with more complex health issues and challenges than obesity body mass index ≥30kg/m2 and <40kg/m2, resulting in much higher financial implications for health systems. Although obesity trends have previously been projected to 2035, these projections do not separate morbid obesity from obesity. This study therefore complements these projections and looks at the prevalence and development of morbid obesity in the UK. Methods: Individual level body mass index data for people aged >15 years in England, Wales (2004–2014) and Scotland (2008–2014) were collated from national surveys and stratified by sex and five-year age groups (e.g. 15–19 years), then aggregated to calculate the annual distribution of healthy weight, overweight, obesity and morbid obesity for each age and sex group. A categorical multi-variate non-linear regression model was fitted to these distributions to project trends to 2035. Results: The prevalence of morbid obesity was predicted to increase to 5, 8 and 11% in Scotland, England and Wales, respectively, by 2035. Welsh women aged 55–64 years had the highest projected prevalence of 20%. In total, almost five million people are forecast to be classified as morbidly obese across the three countries in 2035. Conclusions: The prevalence of morbid obesity is predicted to increase by 2035 across the three UK countries, with Wales projected to have the highest rates. This is likely to have serious health and financial implications for society and the UK health system.

scholarly journals Job separation rates of immigrants and natives in the UK during the Great Recession

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (7) ◽  
pp. 1036-1054
Author(s):  
Dafni Papoutsaki
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the probability of job separations of immigrants and natives in the UK before and during the economic crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach A mixed proportional hazard duration model with a semi-parametric piecewise constant baseline hazard is used on a data sample of inflows into employment. Findings It is found that the crisis increased the probability of exits to unemployment for all groups, while immigrants from the new countries of the European Union seemed to have the lowest hazard towards unemployment even after controlling for their demographic and labour market characteristics. More specifically, even when we account for the fact that they tend to cluster in jobs that are most vulnerable to the business cycle, they are still less likely to exit dependent employment than natives. However, this migrant group is adversely affected by the crisis the most. Research limitations/implications Possible implications of out-migration of the lower performers are discussed. Originality/value This paper makes use of the panel element of the UK Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and uses duration analysis on the individual level to assess the labour market outcomes of natives and immigrants in the UK.

scholarly journals Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaolong Wang ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Xingjie Hao ◽  
Huan Guo ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDWe described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China.METHODSIndividual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions.RESULTSThe median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age. The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.CONCLUSIONSConsiderable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.

scholarly journals Vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: When can the UK relax about COVID-19?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Moore ◽  
Edward M. Hill ◽  
Michael J. Tildesley ◽  
Louise Dyson ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Immunisation Programme ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Severe Illness ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractThe announcement of efficacious vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2 has been met with worldwide acclaim and relief. Many countries already have detailed plans for vaccine targeting based on minimising severe illness, death and healthcare burdens. Normally, relatively simple relationships between epidemiological parameters, vaccine efficacy and vaccine uptake predict the success of any immunisation programme. However, the dynamics of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is made more complex by age-dependent factors, changing levels of infection and the potential relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as the perceived risk declines. In this study we use an age-structured mathematical model, matched to a range of epidemiological data, to consider the interaction between the UK vaccination programme and future relaxation (or removal) of NPIs. Our predictions highlight the population-level risks of early relaxation leading to a pronounced wave of infections, and the individual-level risk relative to vaccine status. While the novel vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 offer a potential exit strategy for this outbreak, this is highly contingent on the transmission blocking action of the vaccine and the population uptake, both of which need to be carefully monitored as vaccine programmes are rolled out in the UK and other countries.

scholarly journals Postgraduate Symposium Long-chainn-3 PUFA: intakes in the UK and the potential of a chicken meat prototype to increase them

2009 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 144-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachael A. Gibbs ◽  
Caroline Rymer ◽  
D. Ian Givens
Keyword(s):  
Fatty Acids ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Poultry Meat ◽  
Chicken Breast ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Epa And Dha ◽  
Edible Tissues ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

With the wide acceptance of the long-chain (LC)n-3 PUFA EPA and DHA as important nutrients playing a role in the amelioration of certain diseases, efforts to understand factors affecting intakes of these fatty acids along with potential strategies to increase them are vital. Widespread aversion to oil-rich fish, the richest natural source of EPA and DHA, highlights both the highly suboptimal current intakes in males and females across all age-groups and the critical need for an alternative supply of EPA and DHA. Poultry meat is a popular and versatile food eaten in large quantities relative to other meats and is open to increased LCn-3 PUFA content through manipulation of the chicken's diet to modify fatty acid deposition and therefore lipid composition of the edible tissues. It is therefore seen as a favourable prototype food for increasing human dietary supply of LCn-3 PUFA. Enrichment of chicken breast and leg tissue is well established using fish oil or fishmeal, but concerns about sustainability have led to recent consideration of algal biomass as an alternative source of LCn-3 PUFA. Further advances have also been made in the quality of the resulting meat, including achieving acceptable flavour and storage properties as well as understanding the impact of cooking on the retention of fatty acids. Based on these considerations it may be concluded that EPA- and DHA-enriched poultry meat has a very positive potential future in the food chain.

Factors Affecting Consumer Adoption of Broadband in Developing Countries

2008 ◽  
pp. 285-295
Author(s):  
Yogesk K. Dwivedi
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Division I ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Uk

This chapter empirically examines factors affecting the adoption of broadband in the developing countries of Bangladesh and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In the case of Bangladesh, attitudinal, normative, and control factors—discussed in the UK case study in Division I of this book—were used and adapted in order to provide insights about broadband adopters and non-adopters within the developing nations. In order to examine the adoption of broadband in the KSA, a number of variables were employed, which also included some of the variables discussed in the UK case study in Division I. As the Internet was introduced comparatively late in Bangladesh (in 1996), in early 2004 the total penetration of Internet within the country was only 0.25 percent (Totel, 2004). It was suggested that the major obstacles associated with low Internet penetration were the low economic status and still-developing infrastructure within the country (Totel, 2004). A recent media report further emphasised that “Bangladesh is not anywhere on the global broadband map, but it is doing its best to get online. Local service provider, DNS SatComm has started deploying fixed wireless gear from Cambridge Broadband and will offer access to government offices, and other commercial entities” (Malik, 2005). It has also been suggested that Internet connection is slow and costly and not affordable by the general public (Hossain, 2004). Given the situations of Bangladesh in terms of demography, telecommunication infrastructure, and affordability of Internet by people, it was felt that understanding factors including cost of Internet access and subscription affecting consumer adoption might help to encourage further diffusion of high speed Internet. In the KSA, the Internet has taken some time to diffuse and is therefore seen as a relatively new technology. The KSA first started with dial up connections and then moved on to adopt broadband and satellite connections to provide better data communication services to its citizens. However, even with the availability of broadband technology, the rate of adoption is considered to be relatively poor in comparison to other developed countries such as the UK, as well as newly industrialised leading broadband users, such as South Korea (Oh et al., 2003). This poor connectivity is often claimed to be caused by website filtration in the region. Consequently, broadband adoption has been slower than expected in the region. Furthermore, a survey of existing literature on broadband adoption suggests that although both macro and micro level studies were conducted in order to understand the deployment of broadband in the developed world and leading countries such as South Korea, none of these studies focus upon developing countries, such as Bangladesh and the KSA. Although this could be attributed to the slow infrastructure development and low rate of adoption within the two countries, this has provided the motivation for undertaking exploratory research in order to develop an understanding of the perceptions of consumers regarding broadband adoption in these developing nations. Thus, this chapter aims to explore the reasons for the slow adoption of broadband in Bangladesh and the KSA by examining the individual level factors affecting broadband uptake in both cases. The research will thereby seek to adapt the individual level factors from the UK case study (Division I) and attempt to examine if and why the adapted factors affect consumers’ attitudes towards the adoption of broadband in the countries. The chapter begins with a brief discussion of the theoretical basis and variables employed to examine broadband adoption. This is followed by a brief discussion of the utilized research methods. The findings are then presented and discussed. Finally, a conclusion to the chapter is provided.

scholarly journals Does performance at the intercollegiate Membership of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons (MRCS) examination vary according to UK medical school and course type? A retrospective cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. e054616
Author(s):  
Ricky Ellis ◽  
Peter A Brennan ◽  
Duncan S G Scrimgeour ◽  
Amanda J Lee ◽  
Jennifer Cleland
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Medical School ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Medical Training ◽  
Medical Schools ◽  
School Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Medical Graduates ◽  
The Uk

ObjectivesThe knowledge, skills and behaviours required of new UK medical graduates are the same but how these are achieved differs given medical schools vary in their mission, curricula and pedagogy. Medical school differences seem to influence performance on postgraduate assessments. To date, the relationship between medical schools, course types and performance at the Membership of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons examination (MRCS) has not been investigated. Understanding this relationship is vital to achieving alignment across undergraduate and postgraduate training, learning and assessment values.Design and participantsA retrospective longitudinal cohort study of UK medical graduates who attempted MRCS Part A (n=9730) and MRCS Part B (n=4645) between 2007 and 2017, using individual-level linked sociodemographic and prior academic attainment data from the UK Medical Education Database.MethodsWe studied MRCS performance across all UK medical schools and examined relationships between potential predictors and MRCS performance using χ2 analysis. Multivariate logistic regression models identified independent predictors of MRCS success at first attempt.ResultsMRCS pass rates differed significantly between individual medical schools (p<0.001) but not after adjusting for prior A-Level performance. Candidates from courses other than those described as problem-based learning (PBL) were 53% more likely to pass MRCS Part A (OR 1.53 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.87) and 54% more likely to pass Part B (OR 1.54 (1.05 to 2.25)) at first attempt after adjusting for prior academic performance. Attending a Standard-Entry 5-year medicine programme, having no prior degree and attending a Russell Group university were independent predictors of MRCS success in regression models (p<0.05).ConclusionsThere are significant differences in MRCS performance between medical schools. However, this variation is largely due to individual factors such as academic ability, rather than medical school factors. This study also highlights group level attainment differences that warrant further investigation to ensure equity within medical training.

scholarly journals National Diet and Nutrition Survey: fat and fatty acid intake from the first year of the rolling programme and comparison with previous surveys

2011 ◽  
Vol 107 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerda K. Pot ◽  
Celia J. Prynne ◽  
Caireen Roberts ◽  
Ashley Olson ◽  
Sonja K. Nicholson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Saturated Fat ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
First Year ◽  
Dietary Intakes ◽  
Nutrition Survey ◽  
Established Risk Factor ◽  
Adults And Children ◽  
Total Fat ◽  
The Uk

High saturated fat intake is an established risk factor for several chronic diseases. The objective of the present study is to report dietary intakes and main food sources of fat and fatty acids (FA) from the first year of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) rolling programme in the UK. Dietary data were collected using 4 d estimated food diaries (n896) and compared with dietary reference values (DRV) and previous NDNS results. Total fat provided 34–36 % food energy (FE) across all age groups, which was similar to previous surveys for adults. Men (19–64 years) and older girls (11–18 years) had mean intakes just above the DRV, while all other groups had mean total fat intakes of < 35 % FE. SFA intakes were lower compared with previous surveys, ranging from 13 to 15 % FE, but still above the DRV. Mean MUFA intakes were 12·5 % FE for adults and children aged 4–18 years and all were below the DRV. Meann-3 PUFA intake represented 0·7–1·1 % FE. Compared with previous survey data, the direction of change forn-3 PUFA was upwards for all age groups, although the differences in absolute terms were very small.Trans-FA intakes were lower than in previous NDNS and were less than 2 g/d for all age groups, representing 0·8 % FE and lower than the DRV in all age groups. In conclusion, dietary intake of fat and FA is moving towards recommended levels for the UK population. However, there remains room for considerable further improvement.

Trend Output and the Output Gap in the UK

2011 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. F63-F74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Technical Progress ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Full Capacity ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

This note looks at estimates of the current scale of the output gap in the UK and at the factors that affect estimates of the trend rate of growth. These issues are central to the debate on macroeconomic policy, both in the short and the long run. The speed at which the economy returns to full capacity, along with the scale of the output gap, will be important factors affecting average growth over the next five years. In the longer term, trend growth at full capacity is not immutable, but rather depends upon the rate of labour augmenting technical progress and the growth of the labour force. In the medium term these factors can be added to by temporary bursts of capital augmenting technical progress and by changes in the user cost of capital that may change the optimal capital-output ratio. Other factors, such as the cost of materials, also affect potential output. Over the past few months there has also been a significant rise in oil prices, and we judge this to have a strong permanent component which will reduce trend growth in the short term and trend output in the longer term. Its implications are more fully discussed in Barrell, Delannoy and Holland in this Review.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effects of vaccine rollout policies in European countries: A simulation study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petros Barbounakis ◽  
Nikos Demiris ◽  
George N. Pavlakis ◽  
Ioannis Kontoyiannis ◽  
Vana Sypsa
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Life Years Lost ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The results of a simulation-based evaluation of several policies for vaccine rollout are reported. In the presence of limited vaccine supply, this policy choice is a pressing issue for several countries worldwide, and the adopted course of action will affect the extension or easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the next months. We employ a suitably generalised, age-structure, stochastic SEIR (Susceptible -> Exposed -> Infectious -> Removed) epidemic model that can accommodate quantitative descriptions of the major effects resulting from distinct vaccination strategies. The different rates of social contacts among distinct age-groups are informed by a recent survey conducted in Greece. The results are summarised and evaluated in terms of the total number of deaths and infections as well as life years lost. The optimal strategy is found to be one based on fully vaccinating the elderly/at risk as quickly as possible, while extending the time-interval between the two vaccine doses to 12 weeks for all individuals below 75 years old, in agreement with epidemic theory which suggests targeting a combination of susceptibility and infectivity. This policy, which is similar to the approaches adopted in the UK and in Canada, is found to be effective in reducing deaths and life years lost in the period while vaccination is still being carried out.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document