World Overview

2011 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. F11-F14
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Aurélie Delannoy ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Ali Orazgani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Precautionary Savings ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Fiscal Austerity

GDP growth in the OECD group of economies moderated in the first quarter of 2011, reflecting a contraction in output in Japan related to the earthquake in March 2011 and a slowdown in the US economy. This was partly offset by an acceleration of growth in the Euro Area, to some extent attributable to a weather related rebound in Northern Europe, but also a strong rise in business investment in Germany and France. Moderate growth at the OECD level persisted into the second quarter. Supply-chain disruptions continued to affect Japan; the high oil price eroded real wages, exacerbating the effect of high unemployment on consumption in the US; the deepening sovereign debt crisis in Europe raised uncertainty, leading to a rise in precautionary savings even in countries not restrained by severe fiscal austerity programmes. Outside the OECD, China and India continue to drive world growth, although rising inflation points to more moderate prospects in the second half of the year. We forecast global GDP growth of about 4½ per cent per annum in both 2011 and 2012, compared to 5 per cent growth recorded in 2010. The key assumptions underlying this forecast are discussed in Appendix A, with our forecasts for key macro variables in 40 major economies detailed in Appendix B.

The rate of profit and economic stagnation in the United States economy

1997 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-174
Author(s):  
Fred Moseley
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
United States Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Post War ◽  
Rate Of Profit

AbstractIn the first thirty years after World War II, the US economy performed very well. The rate of growth averaged 4—5%, the rate of unemployment was seldom above 5%, inflation was almost non-existent (1—2%), and the living standards of workers improved steadily. These were the ‘good old days'. However, this long period of expansion and prosperity ended in the 1970s. Since then, both the rate of unemployment and the rate of inflation have been much higher than before, and the average real wages of workers (i.e. the purchasing power of wages) have declined some 20%. Productivity growth has also slowed down and the debt burden of both capitalist enterprises and the Federal government has increased dramatically. It is in this sense that we may refer to the ‘economic crisis’ of the US economy over the last two decades. This crisis has certainly not been as severe as the Great Depression of the 1930s, but the economic performance has been significantly worse than in the early post-war period.

scholarly journals Searching for the Soul of Europe: The Impact of the Sovereign Debt Crisis on an ‘Ever Closer Union’

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Finnian O’Dwyer-Cunliffe
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Shifting Balance ◽  
The Status ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

<p>The destruction of global financial markets and the collapse of the Greek and Irish economies in 2010 caused a ripple effect that spread across the Eurozone and presented the EU with an unprecedented crisis. The level of economic devastation led many to question the integrity of the single currency and the direction of the European project as a whole. This thesis has examined three rounds of debate during the Sovereign Debt Crisis between 2010 and 2014, in order to ascertain the effect of this period on three competing ‘visions’ for the future of Europe. It has found that efforts to reform economic governance in the EU in the wake of the crisis have for the most part led to an entrenchment of the consolidation orthodoxy sponsored by Germany and its allies in northern Europe. However, a political turning point in mid-2012 led to a reprieve for the European Left and the subsequent advancement of the Social European vision advocating greater solidarity in the place of fiscal austerity. While the consolidation coalition’s commitment to economic stability and oversight has for the most part been maintained, the shifting balance of power in European politics, and an increasing frustration with the failures of austerity, have provided momentum for a major revision to the status quo. This thesis has found that while the Eurosceptic rise in the 2014 elections has raised serious questions for the EU, it has highlighted the unwavering commitment towards further integration among the dominant political actors in Europe, and will most likely set the Continent further along the path towards an ever closer union.</p>

scholarly journals Givers or Recipients? Co-Movements between Stock Markets of CEE-3 and Developed Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grabowski
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
The Us

In this paper, time-varying co-movements between the stock markets of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the capital markets of developed countries in stable and crisis periods are studied. The parameters of the VAR-AGDCC-GARCH (Vector Autoregressive- Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model are estimated, and volatility spillovers are calculated. The evidence suggests that the level of correlation between stock return shocks of Central and Eastern European countries increased significantly in the period of financial turmoil and was high in the period of the US sub-prime crisis, as well as during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. After the announcement of the OMT (Outright Monetary Transactions) program, the evolution of the stock market indices in Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs) have followed different paths. An analysis of the volatility spillovers indicates that CEECs are the recipients of volatility. In the period of 2004–2019, they received much volatility—from Germany and the US, in particular. They also received much volatility from Spain during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. After 2012, volatility transmission to Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary dropped significantly.

Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Accounts: The Best of Both Worlds

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1302-1340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ofer Setty
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
Precautionary Savings ◽  
Unemployment Benefits ◽  
Insurance System ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Savings Accounts ◽  
The Us ◽  
Unemployment Insurance System ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
Government Benefits

Abstract Unemployment accounts are mandatory individual savings accounts that can be used only during unemployment or retirement. Unlike unemployment insurance, unemployment accounts solve the moral hazard problem but provide no public insurance to workers. I study a hybrid system that borrows from concepts of both unemployment insurance and unemployment accounts, in which workers are mandated to save when employed and can withdraw from the account when unemployed. Once the account is exhausted, the unemployed worker receives unemployment benefits. This hybrid policy provides insurance to workers more efficiently than an unemployment insurance system because it provides government benefits selectively. As a consequence, young workers can reduce their precautionary savings and better smooth their consumption over the life cycle. Calibrating the model to the US economy, I find that, relative to an optimal unemployment insurance system, the optimal hybrid policy leads to a welfare gain of 2.4%, measured as consumption equivalent variation.

Prospects for Individual Economies

2011 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. F18-F26
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Aurélie Delannoy ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spending Growth ◽  
Available Information

The headline figure for US GDP growth in the final quarter of 2010 was perhaps slightly higher than expected given the slowdown in Europe and Japan, at an annualised rate of 3.1 per cent. But a closer look at the components of GDP reveals an underlying weakness in the US economy. Domestic demand stagnated in the final quarter of 2010, and the strong rise in GDP is entirely attributable to a 12.6 per cent (annualised) contraction in import volumes. The slowdowns in Europe and Japan should be seen as at least partly attributable to this loss of demand from the US, which remains the world's largest importer of goods and services, accounting for about 12½ per cent of world trade (see Appendix figure B3). Available information for the first quarter of 2011 suggests that consumer spending growth moderated to about 1½ per cent at an annualised rate, and we expect GDP growth in the US to average about 2½ per cent per annum this year and next.

scholarly journals The Greek crisis: Causes and implications

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Kouretas ◽  
Prodromos Vlamis
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Mortgage Loan ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
The Us

This paper presents and critically discusses the origins and causes of the Greek fiscal crisis and its implications for the euro currency as well as the SEE economies. In the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis the enormous increase in sovereign debt has emerged as an important negative outcome, since public debt was dramatically increased in an effort by the US and the European governments to reduce the accumulated growth of private debt in the years preceding the recent financial turmoil. Although Greece is the country member of the eurozone that has been in the middle of this ongoing debt crisis, since November 2009 when it was made clear that its budget deficit and mainly its public debt were not sustainable, Greece?s fiscal crisis is not directly linked to the 2007 US subprime mortgage loan market crisis. As a result of this negative downturn the Greek government happily accepted a rescue plan of 110 billion euros designed and financed by the European Union and the IMF. A lengthy austerity programme and a fiscal consolidation plan have been put forward and are to be implemented in the next three years.

scholarly journals Job-to-Job Flows and Earnings Growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (5) ◽  
pp. 358-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joyce K. Hahn ◽  
Henry R. Hyatt ◽  
Hubert P. Janicki ◽  
Stephen R. Tibbets
Keyword(s):  
Average Rate ◽  
Job Flows ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Earnings Growth ◽  
Data Product ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The U.S

The US workforce has had little change in real wages, income, or earnings since the year 2000. However, even when there is little change in the average rate at which workers are compensated, individual workers experienced a distribution of wage and earnings changes. In this paper, we demonstrate how earnings evolve in the US economy in the years 2001-2014 on a forthcoming dataset on earnings for stayers and transitioners from the U.S. Census Bureau's Job-to-Job Flows data product. We account for the roles of on-the-job earnings growth, job-to-job flows, and nonemployment in the growth of U.S. earnings.

7. The global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis

2016 ◽  
pp. 101-118
Author(s):  
John Goddard ◽  
John O. S. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Investment Banks ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Mortgage Backed Securities ◽  
The Us ◽  
European Banks ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

‘The global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis’ describes the chain of events in the US financial crisis that then triggered the Eurozone banking collapse. It outlines the problems in US mortgage-backed securities, the collapse of three of the ‘big five’ investment banks (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch), and the actions of the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Several major European banks also foundered at the height of the financial crisis as a consequence of the US crisis and, by the end of 2014, five Eurozone member countries—Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Cyprus—had received bailout loans from the EU and International Monetary Fund, conditional on the implementation of tough austerity measures.

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