Defense Budget Growth and Inflation: A Wavelet-Based Study of the U.S. and Britain

Despite the extensive theoretical connections between defense budget growth and inflation, empirical findings based on traditional time-domain methods have been inconclusive. This study reexamines the issue from a time–frequency perspective. Applying continuous wavelet analysis to the U.S. and Britain, it shows empirical evidence in support of positive bilateral effects in both cases. In the bivariate context, U.S. defense budget growth promoted inflation at 2- to 4-year cycles in the 1840s and at 8- to 24-year cycles between 1825 and 1940. Conversely, inflation accelerated defense spending growth at 5- to 7-year cycles in the 1830s and at 25- to 64-year cycles between 1825 and 1940. Similarly, British defense budget growth spurred inflation at 8- to 48-year cycles between 1890 and 1940 and at 50- to 65-year cycles between 1790 and 1860. Inflation fueled the growth of defense spending at 7- to 20-year cycles between 1840 and 1870, in the 1940s, and in the 1980s. Preliminary results from multivariate analyses are also supportive, though there is a need for further research that is contingent on advancements in the wavelet method in the direction of simulation-based significance tests.

Causal impact of social care, public health and healthcare expenditure on mortality in England: cross-sectional evidence for 2013/2014

ObjectivesThe first objective is to estimate the joint impact of social care, public health and healthcare expenditure on mortality in England. The second objective is to use these results to estimate the impact of spending constraints in 2010/2011–2014/2015 on total mortality.MethodsThe impact of social care, healthcare and public health expenditure on mortality is analysed by applying the two-stage least squares method to local authority data for 2013/2014. Next, we compare the growth in healthcare and social care expenditure pre-2010 and post-2010. We use the difference between these growth rates and the responsiveness of mortality to changes in expenditure taken from the 2013/2014 cross-sectional analysis to estimate the additional mortality generated by post-2010 spending constraints.ResultsOur most conservative results suggest that (1) a 1% increase in healthcare expenditure reduces mortality by 0.532%; (2) a 1% increase in social care expenditure reduces mortality by 0.336%; and (3) a 1% increase in local public health spending reduces mortality by 0.019%. Using the first two of these elasticities and data on the change in spending growth between 2001/2002–2009/2010 and 2010/2011–2014/2015, we find that there were 57 550 (CI 3075 to 111 955) more deaths in the latter period than would have been observed had spending growth during this period matched that in 2001/2002–2009/2010.ConclusionsAll three forms of public healthcare-related expenditure save lives and there is evidence that additional social care expenditure is more than twice as productive as additional healthcare expenditure. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the slowdown in the rate of improvement in life expectancy in England and Wales since 2010 is attributable to spending constraints in the healthcare and social care sectors.

An empirical analysis of government interventions in ECOWAS: evidence from dynamic panel threshold

PurposeThe study examines whether the growth effect of government spending is contingent on the level of institutional environment prevalent in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the more refined and more appropriate dynamic threshold panel by Seo and Shin (2016) and made applicable be Seo et al. (2019). The technique models a nonlinear asymmetric dynamics and cross-sectional heterogeneity simultaneously in a dynamic threshold panel data framework.FindingsThe results show that there is a threshold effect in the government spending-growth relationship. Specifically, the authors found that the impact of government spending on economic growth is positive and statistically significant only above a certain threshold level of institutional development. Below that threshold, the effect of government spending on growth is insignificant and negative at best. The findings suggest that government spending-growth nexus is contingent on the level of Institutional quality.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies that adopt the linear interaction model which pre-impose a priori conditional restrictions, this study adopts the dynamic threshold panel framework which allows the lagged dependent variable and endogenous covariates.

Methods for assessing the need for health financing: international experience (analytical review)

There has been an active discussion on estimating the need for public funding of the domestic health system. An analysis of international experience can be helpful to determine methodological approaches to estimate the market for government spending on the Russian health system. Aim. To systemize and summarize approaches and methods used in international practice to estimate the need for health financing; to highlight the most important factors dictating the need for additional funding. Material and methods. A systematic search with the developed protocol for publications, a comprehensive analysis and systematization of the obtained information. The protocol included databases of peer-reviewed publications, search terms, and search restrictions. The search for publications was carried out in the databases of Embase, Pubmed, Medline, Global Health, etc., on the websites of international organizations (World Health Organization (WHO), Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), etc.). The search strategy included a combination of the terms “free text” and “Medical subject heading”, which refer to the definition of the need for health financing. The main limitations of the search were the language of publications (English and Russian) and the date of publication (not earlier than 2000). Results. Of the two used in international practice approaches to estimate the need for health financing, a system based on the use of the current level of funding and its forecasting under several factors is used in developed countries. Forecasting health expenditures is one of the most effective tools to identify critical factors affecting needs for sector financing. Despite the variety of indicators and methods used, most studies agree that non-demographic factors, such as GDP growth and technology development, influence health spending growth to the greatest extent. Demographic factors per se, including population ageing, affect health spending growth to a lesser extent. Conclusion. Conducting scenario forecasts contributes to a better understanding of what can happen in the future if the government does not act. This also contributes to a more clear determining of the main spheres for government interventions in the health sector.

A Short History of K-12 Public School Spending in British Columbia, 1970-2020

This article looks at fifty years’ worth (1970-2020) of public K-12 education expenditure data from the Canadian province of British Columbia. It asks if spending has increased or decreased in this period and examines the causes and correlates of spending changes. Previous research has tended to assume that spending has decreased during this “neoliberal” period. However, historical and empirical research in this article gives a much different picture. K-12 public education spending in British Columbia – adjusted for inflation – is 250 percent higher in 2020 than it was in 1970. Meanwhile, enrolment in 2020 is only 110 percent of 1970 enrolment. The main cause of spending growth is increase in the number of teachers the system employs, which depended in no small part on the British Columbia Teachers’ Federation (BCTF)’s successful attempts to negotiate class size and composition rules. Other causes of spending growth are provincial and district spending priorities. Successive provincial governments have tried to rein in education spending by legislating cost controls on district spending and teacher contracts but have seldom achieved reductions for long. Spending increases and attempts at cost control are at best only linked partially to governing party ideology, with right-wing and left-wing provincial governments both initiating years of increases and cutbacks. More empirical research is needed, especially into spending’s effects on educational equity and quality, to complete the picture of education finance in British Columbia.

ANALISIS BELANJA DAERAH PEMERINTAH KOTA MAGELANG TAHUN 2015-2019

Local Expenditure is all local government obligations recognized as a reduction in the value of net worth within the period of the relevant fiscal year. The government's success in managing regional spending can be seen from the output/results achieved by using the budget. Whether the achievement of the results provides benefits to the community or not. Good results show that local governments are performing well. The purpose of this research is to find out the financial performance of Magelang city government by conducting analysis of regional spending in fiscal year 2015-2019. The method used in this study is quantitative data measurement which results are interpreted with descriptive analysis methods. The results of this study show the Magelang City Government has been performing quite well. This is seen from the variance analysis showing budget planning and efforts to achieve budget usage efficiency are good enough, spending growth is volatile and positive, and the cost efficiency ratio is quite effective with an average efficiency rate of 85.47%. Even so, the Government still needs to improve the balance between capital expenditure and operating expenditure.

Trends in Pediatric Private Insurance and Medicaid Spending: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Analysis of Data from 2002 to 2014

Given increased focus on health spending, this investigation aims to compare trends in pediatric Medicaid and private insurance spending on type of service from 2002 to 2014 in order to inform policy and research. A repeated cross-sectional analysis of 2002 to 2014 National Health Expenditure Accounts data was conducted. Total spending, per capita spending, and compounded annual growth rates for type of service were determined for children ages 0 to 18 at the national level. Per capita spending growth was higher for private insurance than for Medicaid, and the areas of high per capita spending growth differed for private insurance and Medicaid. While Medicaid spent more per capita on hospital care than private insurance, private insurance demonstrated greater per capita spending growth on hospital care than Medicaid (8.49% vs 1.99%, respectively). Conversely, per capita spending on home health care grew more for Medicaid (6.79%) than for private insurance (3.18%). Trends in private insurance and Medicaid overall and per capita spending differ. Medicaid experienced higher annual growth in total spending than per capita spending, while private insurance had greater annual growth in per capita spending than total spending. Growth in private insurance per capita spending was higher than growth in Medicaid per capita spending, but growth in Medicaid total spending was higher than growth in private insurance total spending. These data suggest that Medicaid and private insurance may have different drivers of spending growth, highlighting the need for policy makers to examine spending patterns by payer. Further research to determine why such differences in spending growth exist will better inform efforts to increase health care value.

Impacts of Maryland’s Global Budgets on Medicare and Commercial Spending and Utilization

In 2014, Maryland incorporated global budgets into its long-running all-payer rate-setting model for hospitals in order to improve health, increase health care quality, and reduce spending. We used difference-in-differences models to estimate changes in Medicare and commercial insurance utilization and spending in Maryland relative to a hospital-based comparison group. We found slower growth in Medicare hospital spending in Maryland than in the comparison group 4.5 years after model implementation and for commercial plan members after 4 years. We identified reductions in Maryland Medicare admissions but no changes for commercial plan members, although their inpatient spending declined. Relative declines in emergency department and other hospital outpatient spending in Maryland drove slower Medicare hospital spending growth, saving $796 million. Our findings suggest global budgets reduce hospital spending and utilization but aligning incentives between hospital and nonhospital providers may be necessary to further reduce utilization and total spending.