The World Economy

1994 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 29-61
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
North America ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Moderate Pace ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The prospects look good for either strong recovery or sustained growth of output throughout most of the OECD in 1995. The UK, US and Canada have grown at above trend rates this year after entering recessions in 1990 or 1991. Continental Europe followed them into recession in 1992 or 1993. These developments prompted a worldwide loosening of monetary policy which began in North America, where real short-term interest rates fell to around zero in 1992. The loosening of monetary policy in Europe (and the UK) came later and real short-term interest rates remain high at around 3 per cent, suggesting that the European upturn will be at a more moderate pace than elsewhere. This policy relaxation is a significant driving force behind the strength of output in the forecast.

Economic Prospects and Policy Recommendations

1995 ◽  
Vol 152 ◽  
pp. 3-5
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
The Uk

Economic conditions continue to improve, with growth at a satisfactory rate and inflation subdued, whether one considers the UK in particular or the world economy in aggregate. This cheerful prospect may be threatened however by financial developments, with some turbulence in foreign exchange markets and uncertainty about the future of monetary policy. In the UK this uncertainty is particularly acute following the surprise decision not to raise short-term interest rates in May.

The World Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 28-57
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It is now quite clear that growth slowed in Europe around the end of 1995, and that it remained low in the first quarter of 1996. However, the most recent information suggests that the slowdown is likely to prove temporary. Early indicators for the second quarter suggest that growth has begun to accelerate, much in line with our forecast published in May. We have made no further adjustment to our forecast for EU wide growth this year, with output still expected to rise by around 1½ per cent this year and around 2¾–3 per cent next year. Recent exchange rate developments should help support demand, as the D-mark, the French franc and other currencies within the D-mark bloc have all depreciated against the dollar in the last few months. A number of economies in Europe appear to have some spare capacity, and can increase output, whilst the US is operating at or above capacity, and a reduction in demand should ease incipient inflationary pressures rather more than it reduces output. The depreciation of the D-mark has been associated with a loosening of monetary policy, with short-term interest rates in Germany being a full point lower than they were a year ago. French short-term interest rates have fallen much more, reflecting the disappearance of a significant risk premium last year. The loosening of policy was timely, and should help offset the deflationary pressures that have come from a slowdown in stock accumulation in both France and Germany and from low investment, especially in Germany.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 136 ◽  
pp. 34-59
Author(s):  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Jan Willem In't Veld ◽  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The World

GNP growth in the major seven economies continues to decline from the cyclical peak reached in 1988. The latest national accounts statistics show that all major seven economies are now growing more slowly than they did last year, with the United States, United Kingdom and Canada in recession. This slowdown in activity appears to have been caused primarily by the tightening of monetary policy that occurred between 1988 and 1990. Short-term interest rates rose by 4.4 percentage points in Germany between 1987 and 1990, by 3 percentage points in Japan between 1987 and 1990, and by 2.2 per cent in the United States between 1987 and 1989.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Minor Extent

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 21-32
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The growth of US GNP, which in the first quarter was responsible for the greater part of an increase of the order of 1½ per cent in the output of the whole OECD area, slowed down somewhat in the second quarter but it was still exceptionally fast. With the help mainly of sustained growth in Japan it probably kept total OECD output growing, despite the depressing effects of major strikes in West Germany and the UK. The deceleration in the US mainly reflected a reduction in stockbuilding, which in the first quarter had made the biggest contribution to the growth of demand both there and in West Germany and France.

Central Bank Communication

2019 ◽  
pp. 230-262
Author(s):  
Jakob de Haan ◽  
Jan-Egbert Sturm
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Public ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
The World ◽  
Future Direction

Many central banks in the world nowadays regard their external communication as an important tool to achieve their goals. This chapter provides an overview of the different ways in which central banks inform the public about the future direction of monetary policy and how successful they have been in recent years. Forward guidance is either part of a monetary policy strategy in which an explicit inflation target is targeted or is part of a strategy that attempts to circumvent the effective lower bound regarding the nominal interest rate. In both cases, forward guidance attempts to influence longer-term interest rates and inflation expectations through the expected future short-term interest rates.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 27-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
East Asia ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Regional Impact ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Uk

Indications from the first half of the year suggested that the present cyclical expansion was starting to slow in much of the OECD. The pace of activity moderated particularly sharply in North America. Canadian GDP fell slightly in the second quarter of the year and inventory levels rose considerably. Trade growth was also lower than expected, although this partially reflected the regional impact of recent developments in Mexico. Within Europe, GDP growth slowed in the UK, France and Italy, although growth proved unexpectedly robust in a number of the smaller economies, particularly Ireland, Sweden and Finland. Output also continued to grow sharply in Australia and South East Asia.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 30-58
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
North America ◽  
Deleterious Effect ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Scale ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
The Uk

The early part of 1995 saw considerable turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, resulting in significant currency realignments. Relative exchange-rate patterns have not changed very much in the last three months, and the effects of the real exchange-rate realignment are beginning to be felt, with growth slowing in those countries whose currencies appreciated, and inflationary pressures building up in some of the countries that depreciated. In addition to the destabilising effects of the realignment, signs are beginning to emerge that growth is slowing of its own accord throughout the OECD, particularly in North America. The recovery also appears to have become somewhat more hesitant than we had anticipated in Germany and the UK, although other European countries are continuing to expand at above trend rates. The fragility of the Japanese financial system has been clear for some time, but the potential scale of bad debts is only now becoming known, and this appears to be having a deleterious effect on both financial and consumer confidence.

Großbritannien – ein europäischer Spielverderber? Das britische Opting-Out aus ökonomischer Sicht

1996 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Nölling
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Reason ◽  
Opting Out ◽  
European Central ◽  
The Uk

AbstractWith the beginning of EMU there will be only one monetary policy with a single short term interest rate. In order for common monetary policy to be successful EMU member states have to react similarly to monetary signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). Because of its unique sensitivity to short term interest rates, this would not be the case for the UK. If, for example, the ECB would raise the short term interest rates by an amount which is appropriate for countries like France and Germany, the UK might sink into recession. This shows that besides political reasons there is also an economic reason for the UK’s opting-out from EMU.

The world economy

1999 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 38-54
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Dirk te Velde ◽  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The North ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
The Uk

The short-term prospects for the world economy appear to have brightened since the beginning of this year. Growth has continued at a rapid pace in the North American economies, helped by the prompt monetary response of the Federal Reserve to the turbulence in the global financial and currency markets in the latter half of last year and renewed vigour in equity prices. GDP in the United States is expected to rise by close to 4 per cent for the third year in succession. Some improvement in growth prospects now appears likely in Europe. After the marked slowdown at the turn of the year economic activity in the Euro Area and the UK appears set to return towards trend rates from the second half of this year, helped by relaxed monetary conditions.

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