Technical Progress and the Natural Rate in Models of the UK Economy

1998 ◽  
Vol 164 ◽  
pp. 80-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith B. Church ◽  
Peter R. Mitchell ◽  
Joanne E. Sault ◽  
Kenneth F. Wallis
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Technical Progress ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

This article analyses the role of technical progress in three models of the UK economy. In the standard neoclassical growth model, the growth of the economy is dictated by the growth rate of technical progress plus that of the population. Our two simulation experiments, increasing the level of technical progress by 1 per cent and the growth rate by 0.1 percentage points, suggest that technological progress plays the same role in these large macroeconometric models. In both cases the result is higher output and real wages. However adjustment following the shocks is protracted, giving substantial technological unemployment which in several instances is permanent.

scholarly journals NONSEPARABLE PREFERENCES DO NOT RULE OUT AGGREGATE INSTABILITY UNDER BALANCED-BUDGET RULES: A NOTE

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 259-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Abad ◽  
Thomas Seegmuller ◽  
Alain Venditti
Keyword(s):  
Labor Income ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution ◽  
Nonseparable Utility ◽  
Nonseparable Preferences ◽  
Balanced Budget ◽  
Neoclassical Growth ◽  
Rule Out

We investigate the role of nonseparable preferences in the occurrence of macroeconomic instability under a balanced-budget rule where government spending is financed by a tax on labor income. Considering a one-sector neoclassical growth model with a large class of nonseparable utility functions, we find that expectations-driven fluctuations occur easily when consumption and labor are Edgeworth substitutes or weak Edgeworth complements. Under these assumptions, an intermediate range of tax rates and a sufficiently low elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption lead to instability.

scholarly journals The Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and India

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (4II) ◽  
pp. 451-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qaisar Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Adam Smith ◽  
Division Of Labour ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
The Past ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Intellectual Challenge ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

Economic Growth has posed an intellectual challenge ever since the beginning of systematic economic analysis. Adam Smith claimed that growth was related to division of labour, but he did not link them in a clear way. After that Thomas Malthus developed a formal model of a dynamic economic growth process in which each country converge toward stationary per capita income. According to this model, death rates fall and fertility rises when income exceed the equilibrium, and opposite occur when incomes are less than that level. Despite the influence of the Malthusian model in nineteenth century economists, fertility feel rather than rose as income grew during the past 150 years in the west and other parts of the world. The Neoclassical growth model of Solow (1956), which has been for the past thirty years the central framework to account for economic growth, focuses on exogenous technical population factors that determine output-input ratios, responded to the failure of Malthusian model.

scholarly journals Role of Weather Factors in COVID-19 Death Growth Rates in Tropical Climate: A Data-Driven Study Focused on Brazil Manuscript

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahul Kalippurayil Moozhipurath
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Tropical Country ◽  
Tropical Countries ◽  
Percentage Points

AbstractBackgroundBrazil reported 123,780 deaths across 27 administrative regions, making it the second-worst affected country after the US in terms of COVID-19 deaths as of 3 September 2020. Understanding the role of weather factors in COVID-19 in Brazil is helpful in the long-term mitigation strategy of COVID-19 in other tropical countries because Brazil experienced early large-scale outbreak among tropical countries. Recent COVID-19 studies indicate that relevant weather factors such as temperature, humidity, UV Index (UVI), precipitation, ozone, pollution and cloud cover may influence the spread of COVID-19. Yet, the magnitude and direction of those associations remain inconclusive. Furthermore, there is only limited research exploring the impact of these weather factors in a tropical country like Brazil. In this observational study, we outline the roles of 7 relevant weather factors including temperature, humidity, UVI, precipitation, ozone, pollution (visibility) and cloud cover in COVID-19 death growth rates in Brazil.MethodsWe use a log-linear fixed-effects model to a panel dataset of 27 administrative regions in Brazil across 182 days (n=3882) and analyze the role of relevant weather factors by using daily cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Brazil as the dependent variable. We carry out robustness checks using case-fatality-rate (CFR) as the dependent variable.FindingsWe control for all region-specific time-fixed factors as well as potentially confounding time-varying factors. We observe a significant negative association of COVID-19 daily deaths growth rate in Brazil with weather factors - UVI, temperature, ozone and cloud cover. Specifically, a unit increase in UVI, maximum temperature, and ozone level independently associate with 6.0 percentage points [p<0.001], 1.8 percentage points [p<0.01] and 0.3 percentage points [p<0. 1] decline in COVID-19 deaths growth rate. Further, a percentage point increase in cloud cover associates with a decline of 0.148 percentage points [p<0.05] in COVID-19 deaths growth rate. Surprisingly, contrary to other studies, we do not find evidence of any association between COVID-19 daily deaths growth rate and humidity, visibility and precipitation. We find our results to be consistent even when we use the CFR as the dependent variable.InterpretationWe find independent protective roles of UVI, temperature, ozone and cloud cover in mitigating COVID-19 deaths growth rate, even in a tropical country like Brazil. We observe these results to be consistent across various model specifications, especially for UVI and cloud cover, even after incorporating additional time-varying weather parameters such as dewpoint, pressure, wind speed and wind gust. These results could guide health-related policy decision making in Brazil as well as similar tropical countries.

scholarly journals The Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth in Coastal Provinces of Southern Central Vietnam

2014 ◽  
Vol 221 ◽  
pp. 02-19
Author(s):  
DAO HẠ THỊ THIỀU ◽  
Khoa Nguyễn Đăng
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

To examine the role of human capital in economic growth in coastal provinces of Southern Central Vietnam (SCV), the research employs data from balance sheets of eight provinces in this region and a neoclassical growth model with an extended Cobb-Douglas production function including the following variables: output, capital, labor, human capital and other macroeconomic variables that have effects on economic development. The estimation results based on the fixed effect model show that the economic growth is affected by capital, labor, human capital, FDI, public expenditure, and agricultural production. Of this variable, the human capital is represented by average schooling year of laborers with an estimated effect of nearly 0.43% per a one-percent increase in the average schooling year.

scholarly journals A MODIFIED NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LABOR PARTICIPATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-100
Author(s):  
Delano Segundo Villanueva
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Saving Rate ◽  
Labor Participation ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Positive Growth ◽  
S Model ◽  
Endogenous Labor ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

In light of robust econometric results on the determinants of labor participation in36 advanced economies reported by Grigoli et al. (2018) and independently by CBO(2018), my paper modifies the Solow (1956) - Swan (1956), or S-S, growth model bymaking endogenous the rate of labor participation (exogenously fixed at a constantfraction of population in the S-S model). By allowing a fully adjusting natural rate, Ifind that the positive growth effects of a higher saving rate hold in the transition to andin the steady state (a generalization of the S-S model).

scholarly journals Relationship between Labor and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Practice and Forecast

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-293
Author(s):  
Phuong Huu Tung
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
And Training ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of the fluctuation in labor force and labor productivity on Vietnam's economic growth. Using the neoclassical growth model with data from the General Statistics Office, the study shows that when the number of laborers increases by 1%, the economic growth rate will raise by 2.78%. Combined with predicted figures on changes in Vietnam's labor force in the period of 2009-2049, the results of the study reveal in order to maintain the current economic growth rate, labor productivity needs to increase to 106.2% in the period of 2029-2039 and 111.6% in the period of 2039-2049. Vietnam is losing the advantage of labor force so its long-term economic growth will depend mainly on labor productivity. Improving the quality of labor is the driving force for economic growth. This depends on the combination of specific national policies and strategies, in which education and training policies are highlighted.

scholarly journals How Much Can a Victor Force the Vanquished to Pay? France under the Nazi Boot

2008 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
FILIPPO OCCHINO ◽  
KIM OOSTERLINCK ◽  
EUGENE N. WHITE
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Nazi Germany ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
War Effort ◽  
Neoclassical Growth ◽  
International Transfers

Occupation charges paid by France to Nazi Germany represent one of the largest international transfers and contributed significantly to the German war effort. We employ a neoclassical growth model that incorporates essential features of the occupied economy to assess the welfare costs of the policies that managed the payments to Germany. Our lower bound estimates show that occupation payments required a severe cut in consumption. A draft of labor to Germany and a reduction of real wages added to this burden. Management of the accumulated domestic debt required large budget surpluses; but post-Liberation inflation slashed the real debt.“Ils ne nous ont rien enlevé de vive force; ils ont toujours tout acheté correctement; mais ils nous ont tout payé avec de l'argent qu'ils nous avaient volé.”1

scholarly journals Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200277
Author(s):  
Helena B. Stage ◽  
Joseph Shingleton ◽  
Sanmitra Ghosh ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
School Attendance ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Older Students ◽  
School Closures ◽  
German States ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Uk

We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

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