Predicting Crime Rates, Fear and Disorder Based on Area Information: Evidence from the 2000 British Crime Survey

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Kershaw ◽  
Andromachi Tseloni
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
British Crime Survey ◽  
Crime Types

This study discusses methods for predicting local crime rates, measures of fear of crime and measures of disorder that are based on regression models which make use of local census variables and regional dummies. The crime types for which predictions are made are personal crime, total household crime, burglary and vehicle crime. The information on crime, fear of crime and disorder is drawn from the 2000 British Crime Survey. The local census variables (relating to postcode sectors) are drawn from the 1991 England and Wales Census. The results show that the modelling of measures of fear and disorder is more robust than the modelling of crime. Therefore, it appears more possible to predict types of area where concern about crime and problems of disorder are likely to be highest than to predict those areas most at risk of crime.

The Structural Determinants of Fear of Crime: An Analysis Using Census and Crime Survey Data from England and Wales

1994 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Hale ◽  
Pat Pack ◽  
John Salked
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Structural Determinants ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Neighbourhood Level ◽  
British Crime Survey ◽  
Neighbourhood Structure

The research presented in this article develops the explanation of fear of crime beyond that which concentrates upon the characteristics and attributes of individuals to consider structural or neighbourhood level determinants. After reviewing the theoretical arguments for such an approach, an empirical model which combines neighbourhood level data constructed from the 1981 British Census with individual level data from the 1984 British Crime Survey is presented. The results support the contention that neighbourhood structure is an important factor when discussing fear of crime.

scholarly journals Concentration of personal and household crimes in England and Wales

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 325-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDROMACHI TSELONI ◽  
IOANNIS NTZOUFRAS ◽  
ANNA NICOLAOU ◽  
KEN PEASE
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Covariance Structure ◽  
Single Event ◽  
Crime Concentration ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Crime Types

Crime is disproportionally concentrated in few areas. Though long established, there remains uncertainty about the reasons for variation in the concentration of similar crime (repeats) or different crime (multiples). Wholly neglected have been composite crimes when more than one crime types coincide as parts of a single event. The research reported here disentangles area crime concentration into repeats, multiple and composite crimes. The results are based on estimated bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression models with covariance structure which explicitly account for crime rarity and crime concentration. The implications of the results for criminological theorizing and as a possible basis for more equitable police funding are discussed.

scholarly journals Where should police forces target their residential burglary reduction efforts? Using official victimisation data to predict burglary incidences at the neighbourhood level

Crime Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Hunter ◽  
Bethany Ward ◽  
Andromachi Tseloni ◽  
Ken Pease
Keyword(s):  
Police Officers ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Crime Reduction ◽  
Residential Burglary ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Neighbourhood Level ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Terrain Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach ◽  
Police Forces

AbstractExpected crime rates that enable police forces to contrast recorded and anticipated spatial patterns of crime victimisation offer a valuable tool in evaluating the under-reporting of crime and inform/guide crime reduction initiatives. Prior to this study, police forces had no access to expected burglary maps at the neighbourhood level covering all parts of England and Wales. Drawing on analysis of the Crime Survey for England and Wales and employing a population terrain modelling approach, this paper utilises household and area characteristics to predict the mean residential burglary incidences per 1000 population across all neighbourhoods in England and Wales. The analysis identifies distinct differences in recorded and expected neighbourhood burglary incidences at the Output Area level, providing a catalyst for stimulating further reflection by police officers and crime analysts.

Gender Specific Emotional Responses to Anticipated Crime

2007 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 337-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon C. Moore ◽  
Jonathan Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Emotional Responses ◽  
Dimensional Measure ◽  
Property Loss ◽  
Crime Types ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
And Control ◽  
Specific Fear ◽  
Gender Specific ◽  
Personal Harm

In this paper multivariate analyses are used to test two hypotheses specific to the assumption that women are more fearful of crime than men. First, national crime survey responses to a global fear of crime question were analysed to assess whether responses to global questions were biased towards particular crime types. Results show that non-specific global fear of crime questions elicit responses most associated with fear of physical harm - explaining the persistent finding in previous research that women are more fearful than men. Second, a two-dimensional measure of fear of crime was derived from six crime specific fear of crime responses. Gender and control variables were regressed onto the derived measures of fear to test the hypothesis that dimensions of fear are gender specific. Results show that women are relatively more fearful of personal harm but no gender difference was found for fear of property loss. These data are consistent with a physical vulnerability explanation and, taken together, suggest that the irrationality hypothesis can be rejected.

Is a Decentralized Police Organization a Better Option in a Modern Democratic Society? A Case Study From South Korea

2021 ◽  
pp. 109861112110420
Author(s):  
Sungil Han ◽  
Jennifer LaPrade ◽  
EuiGab Hwang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Fear Of Crime ◽  
Police Department ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Clearance Rates ◽  
Crime Clearance

While western countries have had a decentralized policing model for many years, some countries, such as South Korea, still employ a centralized, national police department. Responding to calls for reform, South Korea launched a pilot program and implemented a more decentralized policing structure in Jeju Island in 2006. This study adds to the policing literature by offering the empirical comparison of a region before and after decentralization of a police department. This study will examine the intervention effects of police decentralization in Jeju, specifically related to crime rates, crime clearance rates, victimization, trust in police, and fear of crime. Using propensity score matching and interrupted time series analysis, this study found that the decentralized policing intervention significantly reduced total crime, violent crime rates, and property crime rates that lasted throughout the intervention period, while improving crime clearance rates for violent crime, as well as reduced fear of crime among residents.

The Relationship of Level of Education to Social Reintegration after Burn Injury: A LIBRE Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 696-702
Author(s):  
John T Schulz ◽  
Gabriel D Shapiro ◽  
Amy Acton ◽  
Philip Fidler ◽  
Molly E Marino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Burn Injury ◽  
Graduate Degree ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Social Reintegration ◽  
Entire Cohort ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Social Recovery

Abstract Social and emotional recovery from burn injury is a complex process impacted by both clinical and social factors. Because level of education (LOE) has been correlated to overall health, health outcomes, and life expectancy, we questioned whether LOE might be associated with successful social recovery after burn injury. The Life Impact Burn Recovery Evaluation (LIBRE) data set served as a novel tool to explore this question. The LIBRE project is a collaborative effort designed to provide a clinical yardstick for social reintegration among burn survivors. After institutional review board approval, 601 burn survivor respondents, aged 18 or over with >5% TBSA burn were surveyed and a six-scale, 126-item LIBRE Profile was derived from their responses. LOE was collapsed into four categories ranging from less than high school equivalency certificate to graduate degree. Impact of burn injury on subsequent LOE was examined by splitting the sample into those burned at age 30 years or less and those burned at greater than 30 years of age. Regression models were run to estimate associations between education and scale scores with adjustment for age at injury, sex, marital status, work status, TBSA, and time since burn. Regression models were run on the entire cohort and then stratified by age at burn injury (≤30 vs >30). Among all subjects, we found an association between LOE and social recovery as measured by LIBRE scale scores. This association was contributed entirely from the cohort burned at age 30 or less: for those burned at greater than age 30, there was no association between LOE and social recovery. Of particular interest, the distribution of LOE among those burned at ≤ 30 was very similar to LOE distribution in both millennials and in the U.S. population at large. LOE appears to be associated with social recovery for those burned at younger ages but not for those burned at over age 30. More importantly, burn injury during schooling may have no impact on a survivor’s educational trajectory since distribution of LOE in our ≤30 cohort mirrors that of the general population. LOE and age at burn injury may provide a quick screen for survivors at risk of difficult social reintegration, allowing providers to target those at risk with additional peer support and counseling.

scholarly journals Deaths of Despair and Brexit Votes: Cross-Local Authority Statistical Analysis in England and Wales

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (3) ◽  
pp. 401-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Koltai ◽  
Francesco Maria Varchetta ◽  
Martin McKee ◽  
David Stuckler
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Local Authority ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Social Suffering ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Deaths Of Despair

Objectives. To test the hypothesis that deaths of despair, a marker of social suffering, were associated with greater support for Brexit in the United Kingdom’s 2016 European Union referendum. Methods. We used cross-local authority regression models of Brexit vote shares on changes in suicide and drug-related death rates before (2005–2007) and after the recession (2014–2016), adjusting for sociodemographic factors. The population comprised 345 local authorities in England and Wales. Results. Mortality rates were associated with voting patterns. An increase of 10 drug-related deaths per 100 000 was associated with a 15.25-percentage-point increase in Brexit votes (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.27, 20.24), while an increase of 10 suicides per 100 000 was associated with a 9.97-percentage-point increase in vote shares for Brexit (95% CI = 6.25, 13.70). These results were substantially attenuated after we adjusted for education, and reduced to nonsignificance for drug mortality (b = 2.18; 95% CI = –0.21, 4.57) and suicide (b = 0.94; 95% CI = –0.32, 2.21) upon inclusion of other sociodemographic factors. Conclusions. Worsening mortality correlated with Brexit votes. These phenomena appear to share similar antecedents. A rise in such deaths may point to deeper social problems that could have political consequences.

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