scholarly journals Modeling in Colorectal Cancer Screening: Assessing External and Predictive Validity of MISCAN-Colon Microsimulation Model Using NORCCAP Trial Results

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (8) ◽  
pp. 917-929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maaike Buskermolen ◽  
Andrea Gini ◽  
Steffie K. Naber ◽  
Esther Toes-Zoutendijk ◽  
Harry J. de Koning ◽  
...  

Background. Microsimulation models are increasingly being used to inform colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations. MISCAN-Colon is an example of such a model, used to inform the Dutch CRC screening program and US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines. Assessing the validity of these models is essential to provide transparency regarding their performance. In this study, we tested the external and predictive validity of MISCAN-Colon. Methods. We validated MISCAN-Colon using the Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention (NORCCAP) trial, a randomized controlled trial that examined the effectiveness of once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) screening. We simulated the study population and design of the NORCCAP trial in MISCAN-Colon and compared 10- to 12-year model-predicted hazard ratios (HRs) for overall and distal CRC incidence and mortality to those observed. In addition, we compared the numbers of screen-detected neoplasia. Finally, we predicted the trial’s future results to allow for the assessment of predictive validity. Results. MISCAN-Colon predicted an HR for overall CRC incidence (0.85), distal CRC incidence (0.82), overall CRC mortality (0.68), and distal CRC mortality (0.62). These were within the limits of the 95% confidence intervals of the NORCCAP trial results. Similar results were observed for the number of screen-detected cancers. The model significantly underestimated the number of screen-detected adenomas. Model-predicted HRs for CRC incidence and mortality up to 15- to 17-year follow-up were 0.84 and 0.72, respectively. Conclusion. Although the underestimation of screen-detected adenomas requires further investigation, MISCAN-Colon is able to make a valid replication of the CRC incidence and mortality reduction of an FS screening trial, which suggests that it can be considered a useful tool to support decision making on CRC screening.

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Hirai ◽  
Yoshiki Ishikawa ◽  
Jun Fukuyoshi ◽  
Akio Yonekura ◽  
Kazuhiro Harada ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of a tailored message intervention compared with a non-tailored message intervention for increasing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates among a non-adherent population, in a community-based client reminder program. Methods After a baseline survey for psychological segmentation, 2140 eligible individuals were randomly assigned either to a group with a tailored matched-message condition (N = 356), a group with a non-tailored unmatched-message condition (N = 355), or to two control groups, one using a typical message with a professional design (N = 717) and one without a professional design (N = 712). The main outcome measure was attendance rates in a community-organized CRC screening program within five months of receiving a print reminder. Results There was a significant difference in fecal occult blood test (FOBT) attendance rates at follow-up assessments between the tailored matched-message condition (14.0 %) and the control (9.9 %; OR = 1.48, p = 0.026), while there was no significant difference between the unmatched-message condition (11.0 %) and the control (OR = 1.12, p = 0.558), and between the matched-message condition and the unmatched-message condition (OR = 1.32, p = 0.219). The cost of a one-person increase in FOBT screening was 3,740 JPY for the tailored matched-message condition, while it was 2,747 JPY for the control. Conclusions A tailored-message intervention for segmented individuals designed to increase CRC screening rates in a community-based client reminder program was significantly effective compared to a usual reminder, but not more effective than an unmatched message in a randomized controlled trial, and was not sufficiently effective to highlight its value from a cost perspective. Therefore, the tailored intervention including target segmentation needs to be improved for future implementation in a CRC screening program for a non-adherent population. Trial registration UMIN Clinical Trials Registry UMIN000004384. Date of Registration: March 2011.


2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 1034-1040
Author(s):  
Maria DeYoreo ◽  
Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar ◽  
Amy B. Knudsen ◽  
Karen M. Kuntz ◽  
Ann G. Zauber ◽  
...  

Microsimulation models are often used to predict long-term outcomes and guide policy decisions regarding cancer screening. The United Kingdom Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening (UKFSS) Trial examines a one-time intervention of flexible sigmoidoscopy that was implemented before a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program was established. Long-term study outcomes, now a full 17 y following randomization, have been published. We use the outcomes from this trial to validate 3 microsimulation models for CRC to long-term study outcomes. We find that 2 of 3 models accurately predict the relative effect of screening (the hazard ratios) on CRC-specific incidence 17 y after screening. We find that all 3 models yield predictions of the relative effect of screening on CRC incidence and mortality (i.e., the hazard ratios) that are reasonably close to the UKFSS results. Two of the 3 models accurately predict the relative reduction in CRC incidence 17 y after screening. One model accurately predicted the absolute incidence and mortality rates in the screened group. The models differ in their estimates related to adenoma detection at screening. Although high-quality screening results help to inform models, trials are expensive, last many years, and can be complicated by ethical issues and technological changes across the duration of the trial. Thus, well-calibrated and validated models are necessary to predict outcomes for which data are not available. The results from this validation demonstrate the utility of models in predicting long-term outcomes and in collaborative modeling to account for uncertainty.


BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joaquín Cubiella ◽  
Antía González ◽  
Raquel Almazán ◽  
Elena Rodríguez-Camacho ◽  
Raquel Zubizarreta ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs reduce CRC incidence and mortality, they are associated with risks in healthy subjects. However, the risk of overtreatment and overdiagnosis has not been determined yet. The aim of this study was to report the surgery rates in patients with nonmalignant lesions detected within the first round of a fecal immunochemical test (FIT) based CRC screening program and the factors associated with it. Methods We included in this analysis all patients with nonmalignant lesions detected between May 2013 and June 2019 in the Galician (Spain) CRC screening program. We calculated surgery rate according to demographic variables, the risk classification according to the colonoscopy findings (European guidelines for quality assurance), the endoscopist’s adenoma detection rate (ADR) classified into quartiles and the hospital’s complexity level. We determined which variables were independently associated with surgery rate and expressed the association as Odds Ratio and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Results We included 15,707 patients in the analysis with high (19.9%), intermediate (26.9%) low risk (23.3%) adenomas and normal colonoscopy (29.9%) detected in the analyzed period. Colorectal surgery was performed in 162 patients (1.03, 95% CI 0.87–1.19), due to colonoscopy complications (0.02, 95% CI 0.00–0.05) and resection of colorectal benign lesions (1.00, 95% CI 0.85–1.16). Median hospital stay was 6 days with 17.3% patients developing minor complications, 7.4% major complications and one death. After discharge, complications developed in 18.4% patients. In benign lesions, an endoscopic resection was performed in 25.4% and a residual premalignant lesion was detected in 89.9%. The variables independently associated with surgery in the multivariable analysis were age (≥60 years = 1.57, 95% CI 1.11–2.23), sex (female = 2.10, 95% CI 1.52–2.91), the European guidelines classification (high risk = 67.94, 95% CI 24.87–185.59; intermediate risk = 5.63, 95% CI 1.89–16.80; low risk = 1.43; 95% CI 0.36–5.75), the endoscopist’s ADR (Q4 = 0.44, 95% CI 0.28–0.68; Q3 = 0.44, 95% CI 0.27–0.71; Q2 = 0.71, 95% CI 0.44–1.14) and the hospital (tertiary = 0.54, 95% CI 0.38–0.79). Conclusions In a CRC screening program, the surgery rate and the associated complications in patients with nonmalignant lesions are low, and related to age, sex, endoscopic findings, endoscopist’s ADR and the hospital’s complexity.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joaquin Cubiella ◽  
Antía González ◽  
Raquel Almazán ◽  
Elena Rodríguez-Camacho ◽  
Raquel Zubizarreta ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs reduce CRC incidence and mortality, they are associated with risks in healthy subjects. However, the risk of overtreatment and overdiagnosis has not been determined yet. The aim of this study is to report the surgery rates in patients with nonmalignant lesions detected within the first round of a fecal immunochemical test (FIT) based CRC screening program and the factors associated with it. Methods: We included in this analysis all patients with nonmalignant lesions detected between May 2013 and June 2019. We calculated surgery rate according to demographic variables, the risk classification according to the colonoscopy findings (European guidelines for quality assurance), the endoscopist’s adenoma detection rate (ADR) classified into quartiles and the hospital’s complexity level. We determined which variables were independently associated with surgery rate and expressed the association as Odds Ratio and its 95% confidence interval (CI).Results: We included 15,707 patients in the analysis with high (19.3%), intermediate (25.1%) low risk (21.7%) adenomas and normal colonoscopy (27.8%) detected in the analyzed period. Colorectal surgery was performed in 162 (10.3‰, 95% CI 8.7-11.9), due to colonoscopy complications (0.2‰, 95% CI 0.005-0.5) and resection of colorectal benign lesions (10.0‰, 95% CI 8.5-11.6). Median hospital stay was 6 days with 17.3% patients developing minor complications, 7.4% major complications, one death. After discharge, complications developed in 18.4% patients. In benign lesions, an endoscopic resection was performed in 25.4% and a residual premalignant lesion was detected in 89.9%. The variables independently associated with surgery in the multivariable analysis were age (≥60 years= 1.57, 95% CI 1.11-2.23), sex (female= 2.10, 95% CI 1.52-2.91), the European guidelines classification (high risk= 67.94, 95% CI 24.87-185.59; intermediate risk= 5.63, 95% CI 1.89-16.80; low risk= 1.43; 95% CI 0.36-5.75), the endoscopist’s ADR (Q4= 0.44, 95% CI 0.28-0.68; Q3= 0.44, 95% CI 0.27-0.71; Q2= 0.71, 95% CI 0.44-1.14) and the hospital (third level= 0.54, 95% CI 0.38-0.79). Conclusions: In a CRC screening program, the surgery rate and the associated complications in patients with nonmalignant lesions are acceptable and related to age, sex, endoscopic findings, endoscopist’s ADR and the hospital’s complexity.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karla Unger-Saldaña ◽  
Minerva Saldaña-Tellez ◽  
Michael B. Potter ◽  
Katherine Van Loon ◽  
Betania Allen-Leigh ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality are increasing in many middle- and lower-income countries, possibly due to a combination of changing lifestyles and improved healthcare infrastructure that facilitates diagnosis. Unfortunately, a large proportion of cases may be diagnosed at advanced stages, resulting in poor outcomes. Decreasing trends in higher income countries are likely due to improved early detection combined with best practices in CRC treatment and management. More data on implementation of better quality CRC screening programs are needed for contexts where incidence is increasing. Therefore, we sought to identify potential barriers and facilitators for future implementation of fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based CRC screening in a public healthcare system in a middle-income country with increasing CRC incidence and mortality. Methods. Qualitative study including semi-structured individual and focus group interviews with different stakeholders of colorectal cancer screening: 30 average-risk lay people, 13 health care personnel from a local public clinic, and 7 endoscopy unit personnel from a cancer referral hospital. All interviews were transcribed verbatim for analysis. Data was analyzed using the constant comparison method, under the theoretical perspectives of the Social Ecological Model (SEM), the PRECEDE-PROCEED Model, and the Health Belief Model. Results. We found multiple barriers and facilitators for implementation of a FIT-based CRC screening program at different levels of the SEM. The main barriers in each of the SEM levels, were: 1) at the social context level: poverty, health literacy and lay beliefs related to gender, cancer, allopathic medicine, and religion; 2) at the health services organization level: the lack of CRC knowledge among health care personnel and the community perception of poor quality of health care; 3) at the individual level: a lack of CRC awareness and therefore lack of risk perception, together with fear of participating in screening activities and finding out about a serious disease. The main facilitators perceived by the participants were CRC screening information and the free provision of screening tests.Conclusions. This study’s findings suggest the need for a multi-level CRC screening program that includes complementary strategies aimed at reducing perceived barriers and enhancing facilitators, starting with: 1) free provision of screening tests, 2) education of primary health care personnel, and 3) promotion of non fear-based CRC screening awareness among the target population, taking into account their lay beliefs.


2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Mirela Ionescu ◽  
Tudor Nicolaie ◽  
Serban Ion Gologan ◽  
Ana Mocanu ◽  
Cristina Ditescu ◽  
...  

Background & Aims: Even though Romania has one of the highest incidence and mortality in colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe, there is currently no organized screening program. We aimed to assess the results of our opportunistic CRC screening using colonoscopy.Methods: A single center retrospective study to include all opportunistic screening colonoscopies performed in two 18 month periods (2007-2008 and 2012-2013) was designed. All asymptomatic individuals without a personal or family history of adenoma or CRC and with complete colonoscopy performed in these two time periods were included.Results: We included 1,807 individuals, 882 in the first period, 925 in the second period. There were 389 individuals aged below 50, 1,351 between 50 and 75 and 67 older than 75 years. There were 956 women (52.9%), with a mean age of 58.5 (median 59, range 23-97). The detection rates were 12.6% for adenomas (6.1% for advanced adenoma) and 3.4% for adenocarcinoma. Adenoma incidence (4.9% in subjects under 50, 14.7% in those aged 50 to 75, and 16.4% in those older than 75, p<0.0001) and size (6.3mm in subjects younger than 50, 9.2mm in those 50 to 75 and 10.8mm in those older than 75, p=0.015) significantly increased with age. Adenoma incidence increased in the second period (14.8% vs. 10.3%, p=0.005), while adenoma size decreased in the second period (8.4mm vs. 10mm, p=0.006). There were no procedure related complications.Conclusions: The neoplasia detection rate was 16% (12.6% adenoma, 3.4% adenocarcinoma). Adenoma incidence and size increased with age in both cohorts. In the second screening period significantly more and smaller adenomas were detected.


Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1129
Author(s):  
Audrius Dulskas ◽  
Tomas Poskus ◽  
Inga Kildusiene ◽  
Ausvydas Patasius ◽  
Rokas Stulpinas ◽  
...  

We aimed to report the results of the implementation of the National Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening Program covering all the country. The National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) reimburses the institutions for performing each service; each procedure within the program has its own administrative code. Information about services provided within the program was retrieved from the database of NHIF starting from the 1 January 2014 to the 31 December 2018. Exact date and type of all provided services, test results, date and results of biopsy and histopathological examination were extracted together with the vital status at the end of follow-up, date of death and date of emigration when applicable for all men and women born between 1935 and 1968. Results were compared with the guidelines of the European Union for quality assurance in CRC screening and diagnosis. The screening uptake was 49.5% (754,061 patients) during study period. Participation rate varied from 16% to 18.1% per year and was higher among women than among men. Proportion of test-positive and test-negative results was similar during all the study period—8.7% and 91.3% annually. Between 9.2% and 13.5% of test-positive patients received a biopsy of which 52.3–61.8% were positive for colorectal adenoma and 4.6–7.3% for colorectal carcinoma. CRC detection rate among test-positive individuals varied between 0.93% and 1.28%. The colorectal cancer screening program in Lithuania coverage must be improved. A screening database is needed to systematically evaluate the impact and performance of the national CRC screening program and quality assurance within the program.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesper Bo Nielsen ◽  
Gabriele Berg-Beckhoff ◽  
Anja Leppin

Abstract Background Screening programs for colorectal cancer (CRC) exist in many countries, and with varying participation rates. The present study aimed at identifying socio-demographic factors for accepting a cost-free screening offer for CRC in Denmark, and to study if more people would accept the screening offer if the present fecal test was replaced by a blood test. Methods We used a cross-sectional survey design based on a representative group of 6807 Danish citizens aged 50–80 years returning a fully answered web-based questionnaire with socio-demographic data added from national registries. Data were analyzed in STATA and based on bivariate analyses followed by regression models. Results Danes in general have a high level of lifetime participation (+ 80%) in the national CRC screening program. The results of the stepwise logistic regression model to predict CRC screening participation demonstrated that female gender, higher age, higher income, and moderate alcohol intake were positively associated with screening participation, whereas a negative association was observed for higher educational attainment, obesity, being a smoker, and higher willingness to take health risks. Of the 1026 respondents not accepting the screening offer, 61% were willing to reconsider their initial negative response if the fecal sampling procedure were replaced by blood sampling. Conclusion The CRC screening program intends to include the entire population within a certain at-risk age group. However, individual factors (e.g. sex, age obesity, smoking, risk aversity) appear to significantly affect willingness to participate in the screening program. From a preventive perspective, our findings indicate the need for a more targeted approach trying to reach these groups.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sok Wei Julia Yuen ◽  
Tsang Yew Tay ◽  
Ning Gao ◽  
Nian Qin Tho ◽  
Ngiap Chuan Tan

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common malignancy worldwide. Despite being the most common cancer in Singapore, CRC screening rate remains low due to knowledge deficits, social reasons such as inconvenience and a lack of reminder or recommendation. A decision aid (DA) may facilitate an individual’s decision-making to undertake CRC screening by addressing misconceptions and barriers. We postulate that a more person-centred and culturally adapted DA will better serve the local population. The views of the target users are thus needed to develop such a DA. A CRC screening DA prototype has been adapted from an American DA to cater to the Asian users. This study aimed to explore user perspectives on an adapted CRC screening DA-prototype in terms of the design, content and perceived utility. Methods The study used in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) to gather qualitative data from English-literate multi-ethnic Asian adults aged 50 years old and above. They had yet to screen for CRC before they were recruited from a public primary care clinic in Singapore. The interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed to identify emergent themes via thematic analysis. Results This study included 27 participants involved in 5 IDI and 5 FGDs. Participants found the DA easily comprehensible and of appropriate length. They appreciated information about the options and proposed having multi-lingual DAs. The design, in terms of the layout, size and font, was well-accepted but there were suggestions to digitalize the DA. Participants felt that the visuals were useful but there were concerns about modesty due to the realism of the illustration. They would use the DA for information-sharing with their family and for discussion with their doctor for decision making. They preferred the doctor’s recommendation for CRC screening and initiating the use of the DA. Conclusions Participants generally had favourable perceptions of the DA-prototype. A revised DA will be developed based on their feedback. Further input from doctors on the revised DA will be obtained before assessing its effectiveness to increase CRC screening rate in a randomized controlled trial.


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