An Open Systems Model of Local Government Forecasting

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 476-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Reitano
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Open Systems ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
Financial Uncertainty ◽  
Information Set

Local governments use single source forecasts to inform decision making, which can constrain their ability to prepare for and respond to financial uncertainty. This unique context may have increased the challenges faced by governments at the local level through economic downturns such as the Great Recession. Given this concern, which has yet to be addressed in the literature, this article develops an open systems model of local government forecast accuracy, which can be tested across any type of local government. This article tests the model with a panel of special purpose governments at the local level, specifically school districts in Pennsylvania, from 2003 through 2013. Estimation of the model with longitudinal analysis shows that government forecasters at the local level consider internal and external factors when forecasting own-source and intergovernmental revenue streams. In particular, a mix of institutional, financial, and political factors are associated with forecast accuracy. Forecasters at the local level also considered the role of economic shocks, as evidenced by decreased expectations for own-source revenue through the Great Recession. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that they consider a complex and multifaceted information set, which includes both internal and external determinant factors of forecast accuracy at the local level. These factors can prove critical to increasing forecast accuracy in context of the financial uncertainty experienced through the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Austerity and Irish local government expenditure since the Great Recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard Turley ◽  
Stephen McNena ◽  
Geraldine Robbins
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Housing Services ◽  
Local Government Level ◽  
Local Government Expenditure

Abstract This paper sets out to establish the extent of austerity in the Irish local government system during and after the Great Recession. Austerity is measured by the adjusted change in local government expenditure from peak to trough years, and is analysed by type of expenditure, service division and local authority. Stripping out the change in local government current spending that is due to expenditure reassignments reveals that the austerity-related reduction in local government operating expenditure is not as large as often portrayed. As for other findings, there are sizeable differences across the aforementioned classifications, with, most notably, capital expenditure cuts far exceeding cuts in current expenditure. The largest decreases in total spending were on roads and housing services, and small rural county councils endured the most austerity, as measured by the initial reductions in current expenditure. In terms of policy implications, the biggest concern is the large infrastructural deficit that needs to be tackled, arising from austerity cuts in capital expenditure imposed at both central and local government level. As the economy recovers from the Great Recession and the subsequent era of austerity, failure to address this problem will hinder Ireland’s international competitiveness, constrain the economy’s future growth rate and result in impoverishment of public services at local level.

Spatial and Institutional Analysis of the Voivodships Expenditure on Culture in the Years 2003 – 2015

e-Finanse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-75
Author(s):  
Adam Mateusz Suchecki
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Institutional Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Location Quotient ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
National Heritage

AbstractFollowing the completion of the process of decentralisation of public administration in Poland in 2003, a number of tasks implemented previously by the state authorities were transferred to the local level. One of the most significant changes to the financing and management methods of the local authorities was the transfer of tasks related to culture and national heritage to the set of tasks implemented by local governments. As a result of the decentralisation process, the local government units in Poland were given significant autonomy in determining the purposes of their budgetary expenditures on culture. At the same time, they were obliged to cover these expenses from their own revenues.This paper focuses on the analysis of expenditures on culture covered by the voivodship budgets, taking into consideration the structure of cultural institutions by their types, between 2003-2015. The location quotient (LQ) was applied to two selected years (2006 and 2015) to illustrate the diversity of expenditures on culture in individual voivodships.

scholarly journals Agglomeration Economies in Small Cities and Business: The Impact of the Great Recession in Aragón (Spain)

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael González-Val ◽  
Miriam Marcén
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Small Cities ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Employment

In this paper, we analyze the effects of productive specialization and productive diversity on employment growth at the local level during the Great Recession in Aragon, a NUTS II region in Spain. This region is characterized by (i) a high population density in the capital city (around half of the total population), giving rise to a very uneven population distribution and therefore a lot of small cities and municipalities, and (ii) a large proportion of small businesses (95% of the firms in this region have fewer than ten employees). We use annual data from 2000 to 2015 and panel data models, and grouped local business activities into three main categories: industry, construction and services. Our results show that, during this period, local specialization in any of these activities hurt local employment growth, whereas diversity had a non-significant effect on employment growth. Only in the case of services did we obtain a positive effect of diversity on local employment growth, which was restricted to the most populated cities (i.e., cities with more than 3000 inhabitants). Therefore, only diversity in services activities located in large cities contributed to employment growth during the Great Recession.

Performance reporting delay in local government: a global south view

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Wharton Kaye-Essien
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Global South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Performance Reporting ◽  
Reporting Delays ◽  
Reporting Delay

PurposeThe object of this paper is to understand how central–local relations and internal technical characteristics contribute to performance reporting delays at the local level in a Global South context.Design/methodology/approachThe paper develops and tests four propositions using a combination of secondary data analyses and semistructured interviews with 30 local government officials.FindingsThe findings indicate that delays in performance reporting are generally high in pre-election years because leadership commitments at the local level largely shift toward national politics (campaigning for re-election of the president). Additional reporting delays were found to be the result of low financial capacity to maintain appropriate data collection and management systems, lack of highly trained monitoring and evaluation experts at the local level and lack of sanctions for noncompliance.Research limitations/implicationsThe fact that some types of Districts (large municipalities and metro areas with access to large financial resources) were excluded from the analysis induces some bias to the findings. The choice of 30 out of a total 260 local governments limits the analyses to only 12% of views and perceptions of local government reporting delay. Additionally sourcing responses from a few monitoring and evaluation (M&E) personnel out of hundreds of mid- to upper-level employees limited the breath of discussions that could have resulted from a broader study.Practical implicationsThe results of this paper suggest that any attempt at imposing sanctions on late reporting may not be very successful since national party politics, which lie outside the control of municipalities, is one of the main factors that drive reporting delay. Rather than imposing sanctions, government should consider incentivizing the reporting process. On the other hand, since internally generated funds (IGF) and the M&E team are factors that lie within the control of the municipality, any attempt to decrease reporting delay should first focus on improving local revenues and strengthening municipal M&E capacity building.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the existing literature by offering directions for approaching performance reporting delay in two ways. First, it emphasizes central–local relations as an important political determinant of performance reporting delay. Second, it explores reporting delay in Ghana's local governments and therefore provides useful insights from a Global South perspective.

scholarly journals Development of a Local Health-Enhancing Physical Activity Policy Analysis Tool in France: CAPLA-Santé

2020 ◽  
pp. 152483992091646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Noël Racine ◽  
Aurélie Van Hoye ◽  
Amandine Baron ◽  
Flore Lecomte ◽  
Jean-Marie Garbarino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Local Government Area ◽  
World Health ◽  
Intersectoral Collaboration ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Health Enhancing Physical Activity

The promotion of health-enhancing physical activity (HEPA) has become a key objective in public health policy. Therefore, based on the national HEPA Policy Audit Tool Version 2 (HEPA PAT v2) of the World Health Organization, a tool was designed to support local governments in assessing HEPA policies. This study aims to describe the adaptation and testing of the HEPA policy analysis tool (CAPLA-Santé) at the local level in France. The work was conducted in three stages: (1) an intersectoral group of experts was constituted, and the group adapted each item of the HEPA PAT v2 tool to the local level; (2) a testing phase with seven local governments helped to collect data and feedback on the tool; and (3) a final workshop was organized to adjust and finalize the tool. The final version of CAPLA-Santé contains 21 items divided into six major sections: overview of HEPA stakeholders in the local government area, policy documents, policy contents, funding and political engagement, studies and measures relating to physical activity in the local government area, and progress achieved and future challenges. CAPLA-Santé allows the collection and in-depth analysis of local level policies to assess the progress in promoting HEPA and intersectoral collaboration as well as identifying successful policy levers and remaining challenges.

Couples’ Communication About Financial Uncertainty Following the Great Recession and its Association with Stress, Mental Health and Divorce Proneness

2017 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara D. Afifi ◽  
Sharde Davis ◽  
Anne F. Merrill ◽  
Samantha Coveleski ◽  
Amanda Denes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Financial Uncertainty ◽  
Divorce Proneness

scholarly journals Local Government Response to COVID-19: Revitalizing Local Democracy in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 701-712
Author(s):  
A.N.M. Zakir Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Public Engagement ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Local Democracy ◽  
Google Docs

The study aims to identify the role of local government and its transformation in response to the COVID-19. It also shows how local governments extended the scope of accountability and transparency to strengthen democracy. The study followed the social survey method and collected data online through Google Docs form. The data were analyzed through descriptive statistics to generate expected results and test the hypothesis by the Spearman correlation coefficient. The study found local governments were positive during COVID-19 to provide services and offered more public engagement in policy formulation, thus more democratic. The health sector has shown the highest priority, with food and environmental services. Inefficient management capacity of leaders and apathy in public engagement hamper resource mobilization at the local level. During COVID-19, ICT intervention and innovation for digital transformation in local governance increased accountability and transparency through easy and effective participation of mass people to strengthen local democracy to respond effectively against COVID-19.

scholarly journals Formation of budgets of local self governance in the system of social development of territorial communities

2018 ◽  
pp. 153-161
Author(s):  
Alexey Chugunov
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Endogenous Factors ◽  
Budget Planning ◽  
Local Government Budget ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Budget System

The subject of the study is theoretical and practical issues of the formation of budgets of local self-government in the system of social development of territorial communities. The purpose of the study is to reveal the priority tasks for improving the system of formation of budgets of local self-government. Research methods. The paper uses a set of scientific methods and approaches, including systematic, structural, comparative, factor methods, which allowed to realize the conceptual unity of the research. Results of work. The article reveals the role of local self-government budgets in the development of administrative-territorial units. A number of legislative and normative acts on regulation of the process of formation of budgets of local self-government are generalized. The priority tasks of the budget policy concerning support of territorial communities, strengthening of their tax capacity, increase of efficiency of coordination of activity of bodies of state power and local self-government are determined. The article is based on the establishment of an effective institutional framework for the formation of local self-government budgets in the system of social development of territorial communities. The field of application of results. System of state financial regulation, budgetary policy, budget system. Conclusions. The development of the budget system is possible by ensuring the sustainability of the formation of local government budgets in the system of social development of territorial communities, activating their innovation-investment component and strengthening the influence on the socio-economic development of administrative-territorial units. The importance of further enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of the formation of local government budgets is conditioned by the need to increase the efficiency of the management of public financial resources in the conditions of their constraints, the development of a strategy for the development of local government budgets and the creation of institutional conditions for increasing their self-sufficiency, taking into account the cyclical nature of economic fluctuations and the impact of exogenous and endogenous factors in financially -budgetary environment. At this stage, the important task is to implement effective transformations of the system of forming local budgets by supporting voluntary associations of territorial communities, which necessitates the increase of efficiency and efficiency of administrative decisions of executive bodies and local governments in the field of strategic budget planning. It is advisable to improve the system of monitoring the socioeconomic efficiency of local government budget expenditures by using qualitative and quantitative indicators, introducing medium-term budget planning at the local level, adhering to the principle of transparency and accountability of local self-governance bodies to the public. Important tasks are improving the system of formation of local budgets taking into account application of modern financial-budget methods and tools; Creation of effective incentives to ensure the interest of local self-government bodies in the growth of their own income base and increase their level of responsibility for the use of budget resources; ensuring adequate revenues to local government budgets, and increasing the efficiency of the use of budget resources.

scholarly journals The scarcity of worker cooperatives in the USA: enquiring into possible causes

2018 ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Sofia Arana Landin
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
York City ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Worker Cooperatives ◽  
State And Local

Even though the access of workers to capital has been promoted in some countries for over centuries, Governments and public bodies have started to promote it worldwide, as in previous occasions, more particularly as an aftermath of the Great Recession, usually in the form of worker cooperatives.However, workers’ access to capital in the USA in the form of worker cooperatives is still surprisingly rare. We cannot find any recent public policies at a federal level in order to promote them and the old ones that exist remain mostly obsolete and unknown. Only at a state and local level, we find in the latest years a series of actions directed to achieve this goal, as in the case of New York City, where there is an important budget to promote the access of workers to capital more particularly after 2012 and, among others, worker cooperatives are being formed.The purpose of this paper is to enquire about the possible causes of the scarce number of worker cooperatives in the USA as the only way of offering solutions comes from understanding the causes.

scholarly journals Can International Local Government Partnerships Make a Difference? Lessons from the Australia – Papua New Guinea Good Practice Scheme

2009 ◽  
pp. 68-91
Author(s):  
Donovan Storey
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Delivery Of Services ◽  
Successes And Failures

This article explores the contribution that local government to local government partnerships can make in bringing about more effective and sustained decentralisation through developing the capacity of local governments to deliver improved services to the communities they serve. After almost 15 years of decentralization many of Papua New Guinea’s local governments struggle to maintain essential functions. Building on existing relationships, the Commonwealth Local Government Good Practice Scheme seeks to utilize the resources and knowledge of Australian local councils in partnership with those in Papua New Guinea to build capacity and improve the management and delivery of services to communities. This article examines the program to date, outlining both the successes and failures, but also the potential role such partnerships can play in the deepening of democratic governance at the local level.

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