scholarly journals The investment project pipeline: cost escalation, lead time, success, failure and speed

2011 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W Clements ◽  
Jiawei Si
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Index Number ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Binary Choice Model ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
Planning And Construction

As they involve expectations about the future and long lead times for planning and construction, the evolution of investment projects is usually complex and volatile. This paper analyses an important aspect of this volatility by studying the nature of the investment process, from the initial bright idea to the final construction and operational phase of a project. We refer to this process as the ‘project pipeline’. Using a rich source of information on recent Australian resource development projects, an index-number approach is employed to measure the escalation of costs of projects in the pipeline and the time spent there (the lead time). The determinants of the probability of ultimate success of projects is analysed with a binary choice model. Finally, a Markov chain approach is used to model the transitions of projects from one stage in the pipeline to the next, and to examine the implications of regulatory reform that have the effect of speeding up the flow of projects.

scholarly journals EXPLANATION OF THE BENEFIT OF THE INVESTMENT PROJECT ON THE CASH BASIS / IZRAŽAVANJE KORISTI INVESTICIONOG PROJEKTA NA GOTOVINSKOJ OSNOVI

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dijana Kremenović
Keyword(s):  
Growth And Development ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
Additional Value ◽  
Cash Basis

Decisions about the choice of investment projects can significantly affect the destiny of the company, its competitive position in the market, market participation, the direction of further technological development, and even the survival of the company. The aim of this paper is, in the conditions of the current economic reality, to point out the significance of the choice of methods of expressing the benefit of an investment project. In this sense, we have explained in detail all currently applicable methods for assessing the viability of investment projects on a cash basis, comparing the good and bad sides of all the methods presented. In this connection, we especially pointed out the importance of the time value of money. The decision to apply the capital budgeting process, certainly, is the decision of the company itself. However, the outcome of investment activity is borne by a wider circle of consumers, which should be a sufficient reason to encourage education and the application of current methods in this area. If you want to realistically look at the investment process and evaluate the justification of an investment project, it is necessary to identify and analyse the effects of exploitation of a particular investment. In order to ensure the realization of the company’s basic strategic goals and thus ensure its growth and development, it is necessary to make decisions in which the company will focus its investment activities on this investment projects whose effects will ensure the highest return on investment. This work deals with the complex issues of making adequate investment decisions using a method for assessing the viability of investment projects on a cash basis. Bearing in mind the significance of investment activity, we can conclude that for the purpose of making a good investment decision, it is necessary to realistically look at the entire investment process and assess the justification of the implementation of the investment project. In this sense, we identify, measure and quantify the overall effects of the realization of a particular investment. Capital budgeting for the purpose of making an investment decision today is a generally accepted concept in developed economies. There is no doubt that there are many disagreements regarding the choice of the methods of assessing the viability of investment investments, and then the selection of criteria within a certain method. However, it is quite certain that the rich experience of developed countries undoubtedly points to the need for capital budgeting, investment project management, with particular emphasis on the use of discounted methods for assessing the viability of investment investment and respecting both economic and non-economic effects. Implicit benefits that the application of capital budgeting brings to the overall growth and development of the company, in terms of reducing uncertainty in making investment decisions, easier ranking of investment projects, exact measurement of expected benefits, transparency of investment activity criteria, attracting investors and ultimately creating additional value and greater degree of realization of strategic company goals.With this work, we pointed out the fact that capital budgeting is crucial in the process of making an investment decision and in that way has influenced enterprises to seriously deal with the choice of the method of estimating the profitability of investment projects that will surely result in additional value for the company.

scholarly journals Organization of Interaction Between Participants in the Investment Process on the Basis of a systematic Justification of Multi-criteria choice

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-127
Author(s):  
S. Ye. Shchepetova ◽  
O. L. Trukhinova
Keyword(s):  
System Analysis ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Investment Choice ◽  
Choice Procedures ◽  
Efficiency And Effectiveness ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The implementation of investment projects in Russia is associated with a lot of different problems caused by non-financial factors. The high degree of uncertainty of the investment situation, the lack of awareness and subjectivity of the decision-makers on the investment choice, the unreasonableness of the selection criteria, as well as the difficulties in the interaction of actors are due to the lack of systematic mechanisms for managing the investment process in the Russian economy as a whole. Together, they form a fairly voluminous complex of related problems. The article is devoted to the study of these problems and ways to solve them. It focuses on the mutual influence of the organization of interaction between participants in the investment process and investment choice procedures.Purpose: to develop proposals for the formation of mechanisms for interaction between stakeholders to ensure a systematic justification of the investment choice.Methods: in the preparation of this article, the methodology of applied system analysis and modeling is implemented, decision-making methods are used, including the Analytical Hierarchy Process.Results: the importance of the pre-investment stage of the investment process as the stage that generates most of the problems of stakeholders is argued. The approach to building system mechanisms of interaction of participants of the investment process at the pre-investment stage is justified. The schemes of such interaction and procedures for making investment decisions are proposed within the framework of the constructed modified model of multi-criteria investment choice. The formation of systemic mechanisms of interaction between participants in the investment process is carried out based on the need for a systematic justification of the multi-criteria choice of an investment project, taking into account the interests of all interested parties. The proposed methodology was developed through the development and modification of the Analytical Hierarchy Process by T. Saati and is aimed at improving the organization of the investment process and the implementation of investment choice based on generalized criteria of satisfaction, efficiency and effectiveness.Сonclusions and Relevance: the formation of system mechanisms of interaction of participants in the investment process at the pre-investment stage was carried out by developing a set of procedures that accompany the process of justifying a multi-criteria investment choice to achieve satisfaction, efficiency and effectiveness of the activities of all actors. The formation of system mechanisms of interaction of participants in the investment process allows to coordinate their interests, opportunities and limitations of the participants' activities, as well as to give the investment process purposefulness and manageability.

scholarly journals Methodology for Determining the Factors that Affect the Current State of Implementation of Investment Strategies in Public Administration

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 4484-4487
Keyword(s):  
Public Administration ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Business Plan ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Business Plans ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Project Monitoring ◽  
Investment Process

The main feature of the modern state investment policy is the creation of conditions for extending extra-budgetary sources of financing of capital investments and attraction of investments of own and foreign investors in the economy of the country based on the further improvement of the regulatory framework and state support of productive investment projects. State regulation of the investment process is carried out to implement economic, scientific and social policies. The constructed classification can be used by the heads of public administration institutes in developing business plans for investment projects, creating a model for managing an investment project, monitoring the implementation of a business plan for an investment project, developing regulatory management decisions aimed at adjusting the business plan and actions of executors of the investment project.

scholarly journals VERBAL ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION FOR THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF THE INVESTMENT PROJECT RISK IN CONSTRUCTION

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galina Shevchenko ◽  
Leonas Ustinovichius
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
Verbal Analysis

The paper investigates the investment decision–making, risk assessment and management problems faced by all participants of the investment process in construction. The main object of paper – risk of investment projects in construction. Companies often have to make investment decisions under uncertainty and therefore the study emphasizes the need, for carryng out investigations, developing metodology and intelectual decision making system that would holistically assess the whole available information to the investment project, increase the accuracy of risk assessment, improve project information management, reduce project risk factors for the occurrence of potential and would make informed investment decisions. The created and described verbal analysis method of the real alternatyve classification was integrated into the proposed model and implemented in practice.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of the duration of construction on the effectiveness of the investment project

2019 ◽  
Vol 135 ◽  
pp. 04021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Mikhaylova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Mathematical Expression ◽  
Analytical Description ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
Quantitative Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The article discusses the relevance and necessity of assessing the impact of the duration of construction on the economic efficiency of investments. Using a mathematical expression, the profit received by the investor during the life cycle of the direct investment process is described. The peculiarity of investment projects involving the creation of capital investment (real estate), is the period of time during which profit is impossible. This period of time is equal to the duration of construction, including installation of technological equipment and commissioning. An analytical description of the degree of influence of the duration of construction on the indicators of economic efficiency of the investment project (profitability and profitability of property) is proposed. On the basis of the learned expressions, a numerical experiment was performed and graphs were constructed. The results of the research prove the possibility of analytical description of the degree of influence of the duration of construction on the quantitative indicators describing the investment project (profitability (Bank interest), profitability of the created property). It seems that the described approach allows to carry out forecasts which reliability surpasses the results obtained, for example, by means of expert estimations. The proposed mathematical apparatus is much simpler than the methods of probability theory and fuzzy set theory.

scholarly journals Analiza ryzyka a skuteczność realizacji gazowniczych projektów inwestycyjnych finansowanych przy udziale funduszy UE

Nafta-Gaz ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 408-415
Author(s):  
Szymon Kawa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Investment Project ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Development Fund ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Organization And Management ◽  
European Regional Development Fund ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
A Company ◽  
Environment Programme

Managing a gas investment project is a very complicated process, both from the technical and organizational side. The technical and technological preparation and implementation of such a project is the domain of engineers who use the available methods, tools and materials as well as technology and are able to prepare and carry out the investment process. This aspect should be complemented by the entire organization and management of the process, i.e. organizing and directing each of the listed elements so that the project is carried out in accordance with the assumed schedule and there are no collisions of tasks, bottlenecks or unnecessary downtime. To this end, appropriate planning is needed, and within it, a risk analysis of the investment project implementation. The aim of the article is to demonstrate the significance of the ex-ante analysis of all premises for the occurrence of risk and the risk itself in the activities of a company implementing a project with the participation of European Union (EU) funds for the success of such an investment. The significance is so high, that before starting the investment process itself, it is necessary to anticipate and establish mechanisms preventing the occurrence or eliminating the effects of risk fulfillment at every stage of the process: planning, review, implementation monitoring and evaluation. The very awareness of decision-makers of the existence of various threats over time allows them to make decisions whether or not to undertake investments, even with access to non-refundable EU funding. The analysis was carried out on the basis of investment projects in the gas sector submitted for co-financing from the European Regional Development Fund under the Infrastructure and Environment Programme 2014–2020.

Improving the financial investment system as an object of business economics

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 508-526
Author(s):  
O.T. Astanakulov ◽  
E.G. Sheina
Keyword(s):  
Deductive Reasoning ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Business Economics ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Investment Control

Subject. This article explores the economic relations of economic entities concerning effective investment activities, combining elements of investment control and assessment of related risk. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and logically substantiate the stages and types of investment activities of enterprises and investment projects in-progress, as well as define a methodological approach to assessing project risks. Methods. For the study, we used a structural and logical analysis, and deductive reasoning. The methodological base of the study is based on the principles of the theory of finance, investment and risk management. Results. The article defines stages of assessing the financial condition of enterprises and proposes a methodological approach to assessing certain risks of an investment project based on the risk ranking by degree of probability and significance of an event through applying the expert assessment method. The article also presents a practice-oriented risk map for investment projects and clarifies the concept of Investment Control. Conclusions. The results of the study can help address the significant for the Russian economy issue of stimulating and developing investment activities at enterprises, as well as implementing and evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects at the micro-and macro-levels of the country's economy.

Tax incentives of China’s investments in Zabaykalsky Krai: implementation of behavioral economic models

2020 ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Mikhailovna Popova ◽  
Irina Vitalevna Mezentseva
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Human Mind ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Tax Incentive ◽  
Regional Budget ◽  
Subjective Aspect ◽  
Investment Process

Currently, the Russian regions apply a vast array of tools for regulating the investment process, including tax incentives. Active use of tax preferences is dictated by the fact that in the conditions of regional budget deficit, tax incentives, unlike subsidies, do not require direct budget expenditures for stimulating investment activity. However, the world experience demonstrates that tax incentives do not fall under the group of factors that strongly affect investment decisions. For determining the degree of preference of tax incentives in relation to other measures of regional support, a survey was carried among Chinese investors, who implement investment projects on the territory of Zabaykalsky Krai. The survey was based on a method of hierarchical analysis based on the special matrices by filed in by the investors. The acquired results displayed that out of ten measures of state support, tax incentives hold the eighth place. The calculated coefficient of the significance of tax incentives testifies to the low attractiveness of fiscal stimuli for the Chinese investors. The authora attempted to find the reasons for tax incentive not being in demand. The scientific novelty of this work consists in conducting the analysis of regional legislation that regulates the order of granting investment tax incentives based on the concept of behavioral economics. In the course of application of the provisions of behavioral economics, emphasis was made on the subjective aspect of the mechanism of preferential taxation. The reasonableness of considering such peculiarities of human mind as cognitive inertia and relativity is substantiated with regards to arranging the structure of tax incentives that would allow increasing the importance of tax incentives in formation of investment climate on the territory of Zabaykalsky Krai. The authors make recommendations on increasing the attractiveness of tax incentives among Chinese investors based on the concept of reference point and the effect of loss aversion.

A binary choice model with partial observability for panel data

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 315-322
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Batalova ◽  
Kirill Furmanov ◽  
Ekaterina Shelkova
Keyword(s):  
Job Search ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Binary Choice ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
Binary Response Variable ◽  
Monitoring Survey ◽  
Binary Choice Model ◽  
Time Invariant

We consider a panel model with a binary response variable that is a product of two unobservable factors, each determined by a separate binary choice equation. One of these factors is assumed to be time-invariant and may be interpreted as a latent class indicator. A simulation study shows that maximum likelihood estimates from even the shortest panel are much more reliable than those obtained from a cross-section. As an illustrative example, the model is applied to Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data to estimate a proportion of the non-employed population who are participating in job search.

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