The distinction between wanted and unwanted fertility has been
crucial in many of the more intense debates in recent decades over the
nature of contemporary fertility declines and, in particular, the
potential impact of expanded provision of family planning services. In a
much-debated article published in 1994, Pritchett argues that decline in
desired fertility is overwhelmingly the principal source of fertility
decline, with the implication that family planning programmes are of
little consequence. I revisit this debate drawing on a far larger body
of survey data and, more importantly, an alternative fertility
specification which relies on a non-conventional definition of wanted
and unwanted fertility rates and which distinguishes rates and
composition. Decompositions of fertility decline in the period from the
mid-1970s to the present are carried out for 44 countries. The
decomposition results indicate that declines in unwanted fertility rates
have been at least as important, if not more important, than declines in
wanted fertility rates. Surprisingly, shifts in the proportion of women
wanting to stop childbearing—i.e., changes in preference composition—has
contributed very little to fertility change in this period. Further,
decline in wanted fertility and increases in non-marital exposure (due
largely to delayed entry into first marriage) have also made substantial
contributions, although on average they fall short of the contribution
of declines in unwanted fertility rates. That declines in unwanted
fertility have been an essential feature of contemporary fertility
decline is the main conclusion from this research. This in turn opens
the door to new perspectives on fertility pre-, mid-, and
post-transition which recognises the inter-dependencies between
fertility demand and unwanted fertility rates in the determination of
the overall level of fertility. JEL classification: J11, J13, R11
Keywords: Demography, Fertility, Family Planning, Regional
Economics