Consistency versus Responsiveness

2016 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam F. Cayton
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Position Change ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Policy Representation

While democratic theory suggests that representatives should be willing to adjust their issue positions to adapt to new circumstances, politicians face serious political risks from “flip flopping.” How do members of Congress balance these risks? Using an original data set of district economic conditions and opinion from 2007 to 2010 and sets of repeated roll call votes, I leverage the exogenous shock of the Great Recession to explain position change on three major economic policies. I find that position change occurs in response to the constituency on final passage votes, but that partisan pressures exert greater influence, especially on procedural votes. This novel test of responsiveness has implications for the nature of policy representation and the mechanisms behind aggregate responsiveness.

scholarly journals The Great Recession and Children’s Mental Health in Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melisa Bubonya ◽  
Deborah Cobb-Clark ◽  
Daniel Christensen ◽  
Sarah Johnson ◽  
Stephen Zubrick
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Detectable Effect ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Great Recession

This paper analyzes the effects of “shocks” to community-level unemployment expectations, induced by the onset of the Great Recession, on children’s mental well-being. The Australian experience of the Great Recession represents a unique case study as despite little change in actual unemployment rates, levels of economic uncertainty grew. This affords us the ability to examine the effects of shocks to economic expectations independent of any actual changes to economic conditions. We draw on and link data from multiple sources, including several waves of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (2004–2010), a consumer sentiment survey, and data on local economic conditions. Using our purpose-built data set, we estimate difference-in-differences models to identify plausibly causal effects. We find, for boys, there is no detectable effect of community-level unemployment expectations shocks on mental health. For girls, however, there are modest increases in mental health problems and externalizing behaviors, as measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). We additionally find no discernible change in mother’s psychological distress as a result of expectations shocks. These results are stable after controlling for actual labor market conditions.

scholarly journals The missing left? Economic crisis and the programmatic response of social democratic parties in Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Björn Bremer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Democratic Parties ◽  
Social Democratic Parties

How have social democratic parties responded to the recent economic crisis? For many observers, the Great Recession and the prevalence of austerity in response to it have contributed to a crisis of social democracy in Europe. This article examines the programmatic response of social democratic parties to this crisis in 11 Western European countries. It uses an original data set that records the salience that parties attribute to different issues and the positions that they adopt with regard to these issues during electoral campaigns and compares the platforms of social democratic parties before and after 2008. For this purpose, the article disentangles economic issues into three different categories and shows that this is necessary in order to understand party competition during the Great Recession: while social democratic parties shifted to the left with regard to issues relating to welfare and economic liberalism, they largely accepted the need for budgetary rigour and austerity policies.

The Role of Policy in the Great Recession and the Weak Recovery

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 61-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
John B. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Regulatory Policy ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Past ◽  
Severe Recession

This paper reports on recent research showing that the severe recession of 2007-2009 and the weak recovery have been due to poor economic policies and the failure to implement good policies during the past decade. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulatory policy became more discretionary, more interventionist, and less predictable in comparison with the previous two decades of better economic performance. At best these policies led to growth spurts, but were followed by retrenchments, averaging to poor performance. The paper also considers alternative views-that the equilibrium interest rate declined during the decade and that the seriousness of financial crisis caused the slow recovery.

Air Pollution and Trade: The Case of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-346
Author(s):  
Jin Qin ◽  
◽  
Ivan T. Kandilov ◽  
Roger H. von Haefen ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Emissions Intensity

We estimate the effects of trade on air pollution in China. To address endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable strategy that treats the Great Recession as an exogenous shock that differentially affected China’s coastal provinces, which export a greater volume of manufacturing as they are closer to navigable waters. In our empirical analysis, we employ annual data on emissions of sulfur dioxide as well as smoke and dust at the province level from 2003 to 2015 to measure air pollution intensity (the ratio of air pollution to GDP), and we also use fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations data derived from satellite imagery as a robustness check. We find that a decrease in trade intensity (the ratio of trade to GDP) by 10 percentage points (a negative trade shock similar to what occurred during the Great Recession) increases sulfur dioxide emissions intensity by about 38 percentage points. Emissions of the other two air pollutants grow by similar proportions.

Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 236-240
Author(s):  
Jessamyn Schaller ◽  
Price Fishback ◽  
Kelli Marquardt
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Data Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Entire Sample ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Per Capita

This paper reexamines the association between local economic conditions and fertility using a new dataset of county-level birthrates and per capita income in the United States spanning the period 1937-2016. Using a panel data model, we estimate that growth in local income is positively associated with birthrates over our entire sample period and that the strength of that association peaked during the 1960-1990 period and has declined in recent decades. We additionally estimate dynamic responses to local income shocks, finding that birthrates remain elevated for up to four years after a shock.

scholarly journals Family-related Disparities in College Enrollment across the Great Recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 689-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Cozzolino ◽  
Chelsea Smith ◽  
Robert L. Crosnoe
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
College Enrollment ◽  
General Trend ◽  
Longitudinal Survey ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Family Stability ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Economic Volatility ◽  
Early Family ◽  
Insight Into

The economic crisis of the Great Recession in the late 2000s had implications for the intergenerational transmission of inequality within families. Studying patterns of college enrollment across the Great Recession among U.S. youth from diverse family contexts provides insight into how economic volatility can either compound or undercut the advantages that some parents can give their children. Although college enrollment among 18- to 21-year-olds did not decline during or after the Great Recession, analyses of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979–Young Adult cohort revealed that this general trend subsumed variability by family history, local economic conditions, and age. Histories of family stability and sufficiency were associated with higher odds of college enrollment over time and across age, but this advantage was largest during the Recession in high-unemployment communities. These results illuminate how life course consequences of early family life can fluctuate with volatility and opportunity in the broader economy.

The Effects of Local Economic Conditions on Confidence in Key Institutions and Interpersonal Trust after the Great Recession

2013 ◽  
Vol 650 (1) ◽  
pp. 274-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsay A. Owens ◽  
Karen S. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Interpersonal Trust ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Organized Labor ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
County Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Aggregate Effects

The effects of recessions on social and political attitudes are likely smaller than the effects on employment, income, and wealth, but relatively modest aggregate effects may be masking differences in attitudes between individuals who live in areas most and least affected by recessions. To investigate social and political attitudes in geographical context, we exploit a new data source that matches individuals to their county of residence to analyze whether changing economic conditions at the county level are associated with changing confidence in major social institutions and with changing levels of interpersonal trust. We find that individuals in particularly affected counties are more likely to decrease their support for organized labor and the federal government. County-level hardship does not appear to be associated with changes in interpersonal measures of trust, however, suggesting that two very different processes may be at play.

scholarly journals The Role of Migration as Adjustment Mechanism in the Crisis and EMU

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 1497-1508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Huber
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Adjustment Mechanism ◽  
Substantial Heterogeneity ◽  
The Eu

Using ELFS data from 2004 to 2014 we analyse labour migration as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric regional labour demand shocks shortly before, during and after the Great Recession in the EU. The results suggest that in this period migration was rather responsive to regional economic conditions, but also point to a substantial heterogeneity across demographic groups, periods and country groups. The mobility of high‑skilled persons and foreign born contributed much more strongly to the adjustment of labour markets than the migration of less‑skilled and natives. Furthermore, among the large integration steps from 2004 to 2014 (i.e., the accession of 12 countries to the EU and the successive liberalisation of immigration from the countries joining the EU after 2004 and Euro accession) mainly the EU‑enlargements worked to improve the adjustment capability of European labour markets through migration.

scholarly journals Training in the Great Recession – Evidence from an Individual Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 240 (4) ◽  
pp. 493-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Dietz ◽  
Thomas Zwick
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Training History ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Training Activities ◽  
Employee Groups ◽  
Individual Perspective ◽  
Individual Training

AbstractThis paper analyses the effect of the economic crisis in the years 2008 and 2009 on individual training activities of different employee groups within establishments. We use a unique German linked employer–employee panel data set with detailed information on individual training history (WeLL-ADIAB). The so-called Great Recession can be seen as an exogenous, unexpected, and time-limited shock. Although our results cannot be interpreted in a strictly causal manner, our Diff-in-Diff analyses suggest a direct negative effect of the crisis on individual training activities in 2009 and 2010. The negative effect therefore sets in with a time lag and lasts until after the recession. Furthermore, the recession has a stronger effect for employees in unskilled jobs than for employees in skilled jobs.

“JOB-KILLER” BILLS IN TOUGH ECONOMIC TIMES: SOCIAL MOVEMENTS AND LEAVE-POLICY AGENDAS BEFORE AND AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION*

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-347
Author(s):  
Cassandra Engeman
Keyword(s):  
Social Movements ◽  
Social Movement ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Legislative Process ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Leave Policy ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Policy Agendas ◽  
Sick Leave Policies

How do economic conditions influence social movements' capacity to set legislative agendas? This research examines multiple efforts to expand family, medical, and sick leave policies in California across almost two decades spanning the Great Recession. Longitudinal analysis in a state with political conditions favorable to leave policy agendas permits close consideration of how varying economic conditions shape social movement influence in the policy process. Drawing from various qualitative sources, this research finds that, after the recession, leave bills were more often held in appropriations committees for their estimated costs to the state and anticipated pressures on funding sources. Weak economic conditions also shifted leave advocates' priorities away from leave policy issues toward maintaining public employment and services. The article advances social movement research by showing the mechanisms by which state fiscal capacity shapes social movement strategies and interacts with political conditions at the early, agenda-setting stages of the legislative process.

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