Paraphilia and Antisociality: Motivations for Sexual Offending May Differ for American Whites and Blacks

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-365
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson ◽  
Cynthia Calkins ◽  
Elizabeth Jeglic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
At Risk ◽  
New Jersey ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Racial Groups ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Crime ◽  
Improve Treatment ◽  
Offending Behavior

There has been little research on the sexual offending behavior of different racial groups. This study compares the characteristics and risk factors for American, non-Hispanic Whites ( n =797) and Blacks ( n = 788) who had been convicted of a sexual crime in New Jersey. The results indicated that Whites appeared more paraphilic whereas Blacks displayed higher antisociality. Despite the differences, however, the Static-99R, sexual recidivism risk tool, predicted equally well for both racial groups: Whites (area under the curve [AUC] = .76) and Blacks (AUC = .78). The findings suggest that there may be opportunities to improve treatment for the individuals at risk for sexual offending by tailoring interventions to the distinctive risk-relevant characteristics of Whites and Blacks.

scholarly journals Predicting Persistent Opioid Use, Abuse, and Toxicity Among Cancer Survivors

2019 ◽  
Vol 112 (7) ◽  
pp. 720-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas K Vitzthum ◽  
Paul Riviere ◽  
Paige Sheridan ◽  
Vinit Nalawade ◽  
Rishi Deka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Cancer Survivors ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Opioid Abuse ◽  
Opioid Use ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Patients At Risk

Abstract Background Although opioids play a critical role in the management of cancer pain, the ongoing opioid epidemic has raised concerns regarding their persistent use and abuse. We lack data-driven tools in oncology to understand the risk of adverse opioid-related outcomes. This project seeks to identify clinical risk factors and create a risk score to help identify patients at risk of persistent opioid use and abuse. Methods Within a cohort of 106 732 military veteran cancer survivors diagnosed between 2000 and 2015, we determined rates of persistent posttreatment opioid use, diagnoses of opioid abuse or dependence, and admissions for opioid toxicity. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify patient, cancer, and treatment risk factors associated with adverse opioid-related outcomes. Predictive risk models were developed and validated using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression technique. Results The rate of persistent opioid use in cancer survivors was 8.3% (95% CI = 8.1% to 8.4%); the rate of opioid abuse or dependence was 2.9% (95% CI = 2.8% to 3.0%); and the rate of opioid-related admissions was 2.1% (95% CI = 2.0% to 2.2%). On multivariable analysis, several patient, demographic, and cancer and treatment factors were associated with risk of persistent opioid use. Predictive models showed a high level of discrimination when identifying individuals at risk of adverse opioid-related outcomes including persistent opioid use (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.85), future diagnoses of opioid abuse or dependence (AUC = 0.87), and admission for opioid abuse or toxicity (AUC = 0.78). Conclusion This study demonstrates the potential to predict adverse opioid-related outcomes among cancer survivors. With further validation, personalized risk-stratification approaches could guide management when prescribing opioids in cancer patients.

A Validation Study of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT)

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela W. Eke ◽  
L. Maaike Helmus ◽  
Michael C. Seto
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Power ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Child Pornography ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Development And Validation

The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item structured tool to assess the likelihood of future sexual offending over a 5-year fixed follow-up. The current study examined 5-year fixed follow-up data (15% any new sexual offense, 9% any new child pornography offense) for a validation sample of 80 men convicted of child pornography offense(s). Although statistical power was low, results were comparable with the development sample: The CPORT had slightly lower predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for the overall group (area under the curve [AUC] = .70 vs. .74), but these values were not significantly different. Combining the development and validation samples, the CPORT predicted any sexual recidivism (AUC = .72) and child pornography recidivism specifically (AUC = .74), with similar accuracies. CPORT was also significantly predictive of these outcomes for the child pornography offenders with no known contact offenses. Strengths and weaknesses of incorporating CPORT into applied risk assessments are discussed.

Assessing the Impact of Person-level Matching Algorithms to Identify Risk of Fatal Opioid Overdose Across Disparate Datasets: Retrospective Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsey Ferris ◽  
Jonathan P. Weiner ◽  
Brendan Saloner ◽  
Hadi Kharrazi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
The United States ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Opioid Overdose ◽  
Fatal Overdose ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The opioid epidemic in the United States has precipitated a need for public health agencies to better understand risk factors associated with fatal overdoses. Matching person-level information stored in public health, medical, and human services datasets can enhance the understanding of opioid overdose risk factors and interventions. A major impediment to using datasets from separate agencies, has been the lack of a cross-organization unique identifier. Although different matching techniques that leverage patient demographic information can be used, the impact of using a particular matching approach is not well understood. OBJECTIVE This study compares the impact of using probabilistic versus deterministic matching algorithms to link disparate datasets together for identifying persons at risk of a fatal overdose. METHODS This study used statewide prescription drug monitoring program (PDMP), arrest, and mortality data matched at the person-level using a probabilistic and two deterministic matching algorithms. Impact of matching was assessed by comparing the prevalence of key risk indicators, the outcome, and performance of a multivariate logistic regression for fatal overdose using the combined datasets. RESULTS The probabilistically matched population had the highest degree of matching within the PDMP data and with arrest and mortality data, resulting in the highest prevalence of high-risk indicators and the outcome. Model performance using area under the curve (AUC) was comparable across the algorithms (probabilistic: 0.847; deterministic-basic: 0.854; deterministic+zip: 0.826), but demonstrated tradeoffs between sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS The probabilistic algorithm was more successful in linking patients with PDMP data with death and arrest data, resulting in a larger at-risk population. However, deterministic-basic matching may be a suitable option for understanding high-level risk based on the model’s area under the curve (0.854). The clinical use case should be considered when selecting a matching approach, as probabilistic algorithms can be more resource-intensive and costly to maintain compared with deterministic algorithms.

The Predictive Validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and Static-2002/R: Which One to Use?

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 887-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie G. Reeves ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
Melanie Simmons
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Risk Categories

The use of Static tools (Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002, and Static-2002R) in risk decision making involving sexual offenders is widespread internationally. This study compared the predictive accuracy and incremental validity of four Static risk measures in a sample of 621 Australian sexual offenders. Results indicated that approximately 45% of the sample recidivated (with 18.8% committing sexual offenses). All of the Static measures investigated yielded moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism, which was comparable with other Australian and overseas studies. Area under the curve (AUC) values for the four measures across the 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals ranged from .67 to .69. All of the Static measures discriminated quite well between low-risk and high-risk sexual offenders but less well for the moderate risk categories. When pitted together, none of the tools accounted for additional variance in sexual recidivism, above and beyond what the other measures accounted for. The overall results provide support for the use of Static measures as a component of risk assessment and decision making with Australian sexual offending populations. The limitations of this study and recommendations for further research are also discussed.

Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 107906321987157 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Thornton ◽  
R. Karl Hanson ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
James C. Mundt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexual Crime ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
History Of ◽  
Time Periods

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.

Violence and Sexual Offending Behavior in People with Autism Spectrum Disorder who have Undergone a Psychiatric Forensic Examination

2014 ◽  
Vol 115 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Søndenaa ◽  
Sissel Berge Helverschou ◽  
Kari Steindal ◽  
Kirsten Rasmussen ◽  
Britta Nilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Sexual Crime ◽  
Forensic Examination ◽  
Potential Association ◽  
Offending Behavior ◽  
Previous Contact ◽  
Spectrum Disorders

The increased awareness of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) over the last few decades as well as the potential association between ASD and offending behaviors has spurred a need for increased research in this area. In order to explore any possible relationship between ASD and violent or sexual crime the present study examines all forensic examination reports over a 10-yr. period in Norway where the charged persons were diagnosed with ASD and charged with either a violent ( N = 21) or a sexual ( N = 12) offense. Differences between these two groups regarding previous contact with child welfare and confessions to the offense were found. There was also a tendency toward more severe mental health problems and less intellectual problems among the violent offenders than the sexual offenders.

A novel approach to examining personality risk factors of sexual offending in clergy applicants.

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 246-261
Author(s):  
Anthony Isacco ◽  
Paul B. Ingram ◽  
Katie Finn ◽  
John D. Dimoff ◽  
Brendan Gebler
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Novel Approach

Umbilical Fascial Defects are Common and Predict Trocar Site Hernias After Laparoscopic Appendectomy

2021 ◽  
pp. 000313482199506
Author(s):  
Steven M. Hernandez ◽  
Elizabeth A. Kiselak ◽  
Tania Zielonka ◽  
Scarlett Tucker ◽  
Melissa Blatt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Laparoscopic Appendectomy ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
Fascial Defect ◽  
Trocar Site ◽  
Trocar Site Hernia ◽  
Preoperative Ct ◽  
Tomography Scan

Introduction Investigations have demonstrated that trocar site hernia (TSH) is an under-appreciated complication of laparoscopic surgery, occurring in as many as 31%. We determined the incidence of fascial defects prior to laparoscopic appendectomy and its impact relative to other risk factors upon the development of TSH. Methods TSH was defined as a fascial separation of ≥ 1 cm in the abdominal wall umbilical region on abdominal computerized tomography scan (CT) following laparoscopic appendectomy. Patients admitted to our medical center who had both a preoperative CT and postoperative CT for any reason (greater than 30 days after surgery) were reviewed for the presence of TSH from May 2010 to December 2018. CT scans were measured for fascial defects, while investigators were blinded to film timing (preoperative or postoperative) and patient identity. Demographic information was collected. Results 241 patients undergoing laparoscopic appendectomy had both preoperative and late postoperative CT. TSH was identified in 49 (20.3%) patients. Mean preoperative fascial gap was 3.3 ± 4.3 mm in those not developing a postoperative hernia versus 14.8 ± 7.3 mm in those with a postoperative hernia ( P < .0001). Preoperative fascial defect on CT was predictive of TSH ( P < .001, OR = 1.44), with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of .921 (95%CI: .88–.92). Other major risk factors for TSH were: age greater than 59 years ( P < .031, OR = 2.48); and obesity, BMI > 30 ( P < .012, OR = 2.14). Conclusions The incidence of trocar site hernia was one in five following laparoscopic appendectomy. The presence of a pre-existing fascial defect, advanced age, and obesity were strong predictors for the development of trocar site hernia.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document