Income Elasticities for State Tax Revenues: Techniques of Estimation and Their Usefulness for Forecasting

1973 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Berney ◽  
Bernard H. Frerichs
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
State Tax ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Revenue Estimation ◽  
Theoretical Foundations ◽  
Over Time

The concept of income elasticity of tax revenues has been used in numerous studies with little concern about its theoretical foundations. Income elasticities have also been used for revenue estimation with limited concern about stability over time or about the accuracy of the forecasts. This paper explores the development of the tax elasticity measure and, using revenue data from Washington, compares year-to-year elasticity measures with those established by regression analysis. The length of the time series is varied to check on the stability of the coefficients. Finally, the elasticities are used to predict revenues for three years to check on their accuracy for revenue estimation.

Income elasticity of overnight stays over seven decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 1015-1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Falk ◽  
Xiang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Overnight Stays ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Specific Country

This article provides new evidence on the stability of the long-run income elasticity of tourism and travel demand by use of the recently developed smooth time-varying cointegration regression model. The estimations control for relative purchasing power parity of the source country and make use of a specific country dataset where domestic and foreign overnight stays are available over a longer period of time (Switzerland, 1934–2015). Results show that the income elasticity of foreign overnight stays peaks at approximately two in the early 1960s, drops to around one in the early 1980s and from then on remains stable until the end of the sample. Domestic income elasticity reaches its highest levels in the 1930s, then steadily falls towards one in the mid-1960s, and therefrom remains stable until 2015. Different phases in the tourism area life cycle might be a major explanatory factor for variation in income elasticities over time.

On the Constancy of Hedonic Wine Price Coefficients over Time

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benoît Faye ◽  
Eric Le Fur
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Hedonic Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Jel Classifications

AbstractThis article tests the stability of the main hedonic wine price coefficients over time. We draw on an extensive literature review to identify the most frequently used methodology and define a standard hedonic model. We estimate this model on monthly subsamples of a worldwide auction database of the most commonly exchanged fine wines. This provides, for each attribute, a monthly time series of hedonic coefficients time series data from 2003 to 2014. Using a multivariate autoregressive model, we then study the stability of these coefficients over time and test the existence of structural or cyclical changes related to fluctuations in general price levels. We find that most hedonic coefficients are variable and either exhibit structural or cyclical variations over time. These findings shed doubt on the relevance of both short- and long-run hedonic estimations. (JEL Classifications: C13, C22, D44, G11)

scholarly journals Investigating changes over time of annual rainfall in Zimbabwe

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 2671-2679 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Mazvimavi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Quantile Regression Analysis ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. There is increasing concern in southern Africa about the possible decline of rainfall as a result of global warming. Some studies concluded that average rainfall in Zimbabwe had declined by 10% or 100 mm during the last 100 years. This paper investigates the validity of the assumption that rainfall is declining in Zimbabwe. Time series of annual rainfall, and total rainfall for (a) the early part of the rainy season, October-November-December (OND), and (b) the mid to end of the rainy season, January-February-March (JFM) are analysed for the presence of trends using the Mann-Kendall test, and for the decline or increase during years with either high or low rainfall using quantile regression analysis. The Pettitt test has also been utilized to examine the possible existence of change or break-points in the rainfall time series. The analysis has been done for 40 rainfall stations with records starting during the 1892–1940 period and ending in 2000, and representative of all the rainfall regions. The Mann-Kendal test did not identify a significant trend at all the 40 stations, and therefore there is no proof that the average rainfall at each of these stations has changed. Quantile regression analysis revealed a decline in annual rainfall less than the tenth percentile at only one station, and increasing of rainfall greater than the ninetieth percentile at another station. All the other stations had no changes over time in both the low and high rainfall at the annual interval. Climate change effects are therefore not yet statistically significant within time series of total seasonal and annual rainfall in Zimbabwe. The general perception about declining rainfall is likely due to the presence of multidecadal variability characterized by bunching of years with above (e.g. 1951–1958, 1973–1980) and below (e.g. 1959–1972, 1982–1994 ) average rainfall.

scholarly journals The demand for beer in Czech Republic: inderstanding longrun on- and off-trade price elasticities

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 165-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grosová Stanislava ◽  
Masár Michal ◽  
Kutnohorská Olga ◽  
Kubeš Vladimír
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Beer Consumption ◽  
Price And Income Elasticities

We provided estimates of price, cross-price, and income elasticities for on- and off-trade beer consumption using econometric models on time series data from 1994 to 2014. The empirical results indicate that the most important determinants of on-trade demand are the price of off-trade beer, the price of substitutes and past consumption, while the income elasticity was not found to be important. The most important determinants of off-trade beer demand were the price of on-trade beer and the price of substitutes.

scholarly journals PERMINTAAN TERIGU DI INDONESIA

Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Bambang Djanuwardi ◽  
Ahmad Sutarmadi ◽  
Gunawan Sumodiningrat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Elasticity Of Demand ◽  
Price Elasticity Of Demand ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Cross Price Elasticity ◽  
Income Elasticity Of Demand

This study on wheat demand in Indonesia attempto know the factors influencing the wheat demand and to what extent it is influenced.The data used in this study is a time series of 1967 to 1986, and regression analysis was employed with static double log model.The result indicates that the price elasticity of demand for wheat is not elastic, while the income elasticity of demand is elastic. The cross price elasticity of demand of rice is not elastic.Variables that consistently influence demand of wheat are, wheat price, rice price, and income. While for sugar, egg, milk, there is no strong eyidencce indicating that they are the wheat complements. It can not be concluded either that corn is the substitut of wheat

On the Robustness of Solution Strategy Classifications

2010 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
María José Contreras ◽  
Víctor J. Rubio ◽  
Daniel Peña ◽  
José Santacreu
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Study Strategies ◽  
Solution Strategy ◽  
Specific Test ◽  
Spatial Tasks ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Strategy Changes ◽  
Over Time

Individual differences in performance when solving spatial tasks can be partly explained by differences in the strategies used. Two main difficulties arise when studying such strategies: the identification of the strategy itself and the stability of the strategy over time. In the present study strategies were separated into three categories: segmented (analytic), holistic-feedback dependent, and holistic-planned, according to the procedure described by Peña, Contreras, Shih, and Santacreu (2008) . A group of individuals were evaluated twice on a 1-year test-retest basis. During the 1-year interval between tests, the participants were not able to prepare for the specific test used in this study or similar ones. It was found that 60% of the individuals kept the same strategy throughout the tests. When strategy changes did occur, they were usually due to a better strategy. These results prove the robustness of using strategy-based procedures for studying individual differences in spatial tasks.

On the Stability of Evaluative Conditioning Effects

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 380-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine Förderer ◽  
Christian Unkelbach
Keyword(s):  
Evaluative Conditioning ◽  
Indirect Measures ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Over Time

Evaluative conditioning (EC) refers to valence changes in neutral stimuli (CSs) through repeated pairing with liked or disliked stimuli (USs). The present study examined the stability of EC effects in the course of 1 week. We investigated how this stability depends on memory for US valence and US identity. We also investigated whether CSs evaluations occurring immediately after conditioning (i.e., evaluative consolidation) are necessary for stable EC effects. Participants showed stable EC effects on direct and indirect measures, independent of evaluations immediately after conditioning. EC effects depended on memory for US valence but not for US identity. And although memory decreased significantly over time, EC effects remained stable. These data suggest that evaluative consolidation is not necessary, and that conditioned preferences and attitudes might persist even when people do not remember the concrete source anymore.

DEVELOPMENT OF STREAMFLOW DROUGHT INDICES IN THE MORAVA RIVER BASIN

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ondrej Ledvinka ◽  
◽  
Pavel Coufal ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Left Hand ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Catchment Size ◽  
Morava River ◽  
The Stability

The territory of Czechia currently suffers from a long-lasting drought period which has been a subject of many studies, including the hydrological ones. Previous works indicated that the basin of the Morava River, a left-hand tributary of the Danube, is very prone to the occurrence of dry spells. It also applies to the development of various hydrological time series that often show decreases in the amount of available water. The purpose of this contribution is to extend the results of studies performed earlier and, using the most updated daily time series of discharge, to look at the situation of the so-called streamflow drought within the basin. 46 water-gauging stations representing the rivers of diverse catchment size were selected where no or a very weak anthropogenic influences are expected and the stability and sensitivity of profiles allow for the proper measurement of low flows. The selected series had to cover the most current period 1981-2018 but they could be much longer, which was considered beneficial for the next determination of the development direction. Various series of drought indices were derived from the original discharge series. Specifically, 7-, 15- and 30-day low flows together with deficit volumes and their durations were tested for trends using the modifications of the Mann– Kendall test that account for short-term and long-term persistence. In order to better reflect the drivers of streamflow drought, the indices were considered for summer and winter seasons separately as well. The places with the situation critical to the future water resources management were highlighted where substantial changes in river regime occur probably due to climate factors. Finally, the current drought episode that started in 2014 was put into a wider context, making use of the information obtained by the analyses.

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