DEVELOPMENT OF STREAMFLOW DROUGHT INDICES IN THE MORAVA RIVER BASIN

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ondrej Ledvinka ◽  
◽  
Pavel Coufal ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Left Hand ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Catchment Size ◽  
Morava River ◽  
The Stability

The territory of Czechia currently suffers from a long-lasting drought period which has been a subject of many studies, including the hydrological ones. Previous works indicated that the basin of the Morava River, a left-hand tributary of the Danube, is very prone to the occurrence of dry spells. It also applies to the development of various hydrological time series that often show decreases in the amount of available water. The purpose of this contribution is to extend the results of studies performed earlier and, using the most updated daily time series of discharge, to look at the situation of the so-called streamflow drought within the basin. 46 water-gauging stations representing the rivers of diverse catchment size were selected where no or a very weak anthropogenic influences are expected and the stability and sensitivity of profiles allow for the proper measurement of low flows. The selected series had to cover the most current period 1981-2018 but they could be much longer, which was considered beneficial for the next determination of the development direction. Various series of drought indices were derived from the original discharge series. Specifically, 7-, 15- and 30-day low flows together with deficit volumes and their durations were tested for trends using the modifications of the Mann– Kendall test that account for short-term and long-term persistence. In order to better reflect the drivers of streamflow drought, the indices were considered for summer and winter seasons separately as well. The places with the situation critical to the future water resources management were highlighted where substantial changes in river regime occur probably due to climate factors. Finally, the current drought episode that started in 2014 was put into a wider context, making use of the information obtained by the analyses.

Income Elasticities for State Tax Revenues: Techniques of Estimation and Their Usefulness for Forecasting

1973 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Berney ◽  
Bernard H. Frerichs
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
State Tax ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Revenue Estimation ◽  
Theoretical Foundations ◽  
Over Time

The concept of income elasticity of tax revenues has been used in numerous studies with little concern about its theoretical foundations. Income elasticities have also been used for revenue estimation with limited concern about stability over time or about the accuracy of the forecasts. This paper explores the development of the tax elasticity measure and, using revenue data from Washington, compares year-to-year elasticity measures with those established by regression analysis. The length of the time series is varied to check on the stability of the coefficients. Finally, the elasticities are used to predict revenues for three years to check on their accuracy for revenue estimation.

scholarly journals Consistent segregated staggered schemes with explicit steps for the isentropic and full Euler equations

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphaèle Herbin ◽  
Jean-Claude Latché ◽  
Trung Tan Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Internal Energy ◽  
Euler Equations ◽  
Left Hand ◽  
Isentropic Euler Equations ◽  
Space Discretization ◽  
Face Centered ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Stability And Consistency

In this paper, we build and analyze the stability and consistency of decoupled schemes, involving only explicit steps, for the isentropic Euler equations and for the full Euler equations. These schemes are based on staggered space discretizations, with an upwinding performed with respect to the material velocity only. The pressure gradient is defined as the transpose of the natural velocity divergence, and is thus centered. The velocity convection term is built in such a way that the solutions satisfy a discrete kinetic energy balance, with a remainder term at the left-hand side which is shown to be non-negative under a CFL condition. In the case of the full Euler equations, we solve the internal energy balance, to avoid the space discretization of the total energy, whose expression involves cell-centered and face-centered variables. However, since the residual terms in the kinetic energy balance (probably) do not tend to zero with the time and space steps when computing shock solutions, we compensate them by corrective terms in the internal energy equation, to make the scheme consistent with the conservative form of the continuous problem. We then show, in one space dimension, that, if the scheme converges, the limit is indeed an entropy weak solution of the system. In any case, the discretization preserves by construction the convex of admissible states (positivity of the density and, for Euler equations, of the internal energy), under a CFL condition. Finally, we present numerical results which confort this theory.

scholarly journals Research on Computer Modeling of Fractional Differential Equation Applied Mathematics

2021 ◽  
Vol 2083 (3) ◽  
pp. 032036
Author(s):  
Linlin Su
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Equilibrium Solution ◽  
Applied Mathematics ◽  
Bifurcation Diagrams ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Fractional Differential ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Evolution Behavior

Abstract This paper qualitatively analyzes the stability of the equilibrium solution of a class of fractional chaotic financial systems and the conditions for the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation, and uses the Adams-Bashford-Melton predictive-correction finite difference method to pass the analysis Bifurcation diagrams, phase diagrams, and time series diagrams are used to simulate the complex evolution behavior of the system.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF THE MAIN CEOS PSEUDO CALIBRATION SITES USING MODIS BRDF/ALBEDO PRODUCTS

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B1 ◽  
pp. 217-220
Author(s):  
Said Kharbouche ◽  
Jan-Peter Muller
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
High Stability ◽  
Window Size ◽  
The Stability

This work describes our findings about an evaluation of the stability and the consistency of twenty primary PICSs (Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Sites). We present an analysis of 13 years of 8-daily MODIS products of BRDF parameters and white-sky-albedos (WSA) over the shortwave band. This time series of WSA and BRDFs shows the variation of the “stability” varies significantly from site to site. Using a 10x10 km window size over all the sites, the change in of WSA stability is around 4% but the isotropicity, which is an important element in inter-satellite calibration, can vary from 75% to 98%. Moreover, some PICS, especially, Libya-4 which is one of the PICS which is most employed, has significant and relatively fast changes in wintertime. PICS observations of BRDF/albedo shows that the Libya-4 PICS has the best performance but it is not too far from some sites such as Libya-1 and Mali. This study also reveals that Niger-3 PICS has the longest continuous period of high stability per year, and Sudan has the most isotropic surface. These observations have important implications for the use of these sites.

scholarly journals Trends in the Maximum, Mean, and Low Flows of Turkish Rivers

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 280-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. K. Cigizoglu ◽  
M. Bayazit ◽  
B. Önöz
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
T Test ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Southern Turkey ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Maximum Flows

Abstract In this study the existence of trend in maximum, mean, and low flows of Turkish rivers has been investigated. The data consisted of the daily mean flows of nearly 100 flow stations in 24 hydrological regions of Turkey. Trend analysis has been carried out using the parametric t test and nonparametric τ (Mann–Kendall) test. Both tests have been applied to annual maximum, mean, 1-day, and 7-day low flows. Trend existence was detected in the majority of rivers in western and southern Turkey and in some parts of central and eastern Turkey. Trends in mean and low flows were more common compared with maximum flows. Except at a few stations, flows showed a decreasing trend. In the time period of the last 30–60 yr, statistically significant decrease was found especially in the mean and low flows (and in some of the maximum flows) in western, central, and southern parts of Turkey. Such trends were not observed in other regions. These results are in agreement with those of the precipitation trend studies in Turkey.

scholarly journals Do natural rubber price bubbles occur?

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 67-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Oana-Ramona Lobonţ
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Multiple Bubbles ◽  
Market Fundamentals ◽  
The Stability

In this paper, we employ the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller test in order to identify the existence of multiple bubbles in natural rubber. This approach is practical for the using of time series and identifies the beginning and end points of multiple bubbles. The results reveal that there are five bubbles, where exist the divergences between natural rubber prices and their basic values on account of market fundamentals. The five bubbles are related to imbalance between supply and demand, inefficiencies of smallholders market, oil prices, exchange rate and climatic changes through analyses. Thus, the corresponding authorities are supposed to identify bubbles and consider their evolutions, which is beneficial to the stability of natural rubber price.

scholarly journals Embedded Dimension and Time Series Length. Practical Influence on Permutation Entropy and Its Applications

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 385 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cuesta-Frau ◽  
Juan Pablo Murillo-Escobar ◽  
Diana Alexandra Orrego ◽  
Edilson Delgado-Trejos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Classification Performance ◽  
Permutation Entropy ◽  
Series Length ◽  
Stability Point ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Model Time Series ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Forbidden Patterns ◽  
Short Time

Permutation Entropy (PE) is a time series complexity measure commonly used in a variety of contexts, with medicine being the prime example. In its general form, it requires three input parameters for its calculation: time series length N, embedded dimension m, and embedded delay τ . Inappropriate choices of these parameters may potentially lead to incorrect interpretations. However, there are no specific guidelines for an optimal selection of N, m, or τ , only general recommendations such as N > > m ! , τ = 1 , or m = 3 , … , 7 . This paper deals specifically with the study of the practical implications of N > > m ! , since long time series are often not available, or non-stationary, and other preliminary results suggest that low N values do not necessarily invalidate PE usefulness. Our study analyses the PE variation as a function of the series length N and embedded dimension m in the context of a diverse experimental set, both synthetic (random, spikes, or logistic model time series) and real–world (climatology, seismic, financial, or biomedical time series), and the classification performance achieved with varying N and m. The results seem to indicate that shorter lengths than those suggested by N > > m ! are sufficient for a stable PE calculation, and even very short time series can be robustly classified based on PE measurements before the stability point is reached. This may be due to the fact that there are forbidden patterns in chaotic time series, not all the patterns are equally informative, and differences among classes are already apparent at very short lengths.

scholarly journals Advanced interpretation of subsidence in Murcia (SE Spain) using A-DInSAR data – modelling and validation

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 647-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Herrera ◽  
J. A. Fernández ◽  
R. Tomás ◽  
G. Cooksley ◽  
J. Mulas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time History ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Sar Interferometry ◽  
Se Spain ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Aquifer System

Abstract. Subsidence is a natural hazard that affects wide areas in the world causing important economic costs annually. This phenomenon has occurred in the metropolitan area of Murcia City (SE Spain) as a result of groundwater overexploitation. In this work aquifer system subsidence is investigated using an advanced differential SAR interferometry remote sensing technique (A-DInSAR) called Stable Point Network (SPN). The SPN derived displacement results, mainly the velocity displacement maps and the time series of the displacement, reveal that in the period 2004–2008 the rate of subsidence in Murcia metropolitan area doubled with respect to the previous period from 1995 to 2005. The acceleration of the deformation phenomenon is explained by the drought period started in 2006. The comparison of the temporal evolution of the displacements measured with the extensometers and the SPN technique shows an average absolute error of 3.9±3.8 mm. Finally, results from a finite element model developed to simulate the recorded time history subsidence from known water table height changes compares well with the SPN displacement time series estimations. This result demonstrates the potential of A-DInSAR techniques to validate subsidence prediction models as an alternative to using instrumental ground based techniques for validation.

scholarly journals A robust method for shift detection in time series

Biometrika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 107 (3) ◽  
pp. 647-660
Author(s):  
H Dehling ◽  
R Fried ◽  
M Wendler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Nonparametric Test ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Moment Conditions ◽  
Limit Theory ◽  
Dependent Observations ◽  
U Statistics ◽  
Shift Detection ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
The Stability

Summary We present a robust and nonparametric test for the presence of a changepoint in a time series, based on the two-sample Hodges–Lehmann estimator. We develop new limit theory for a class of statistics based on two-sample U-quantile processes in the case of short-range dependent observations. Using this theory, we derive the asymptotic distribution of our test statistic under the null hypothesis of a constant level. The proposed test shows better overall performance under normal, heavy-tailed and skewed distributions than several other modifications of the popular cumulative sums test based on U-statistics, one-sample U-quantiles or M-estimation. The new theory does not involve moment conditions, so any transform of the observed process can be used to test the stability of higher-order characteristics such as variability, skewness and kurtosis.

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