scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Nomogram Prognostic Model for Patients With Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 117693511983754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Rong Lu ◽  
Sunny Lai ◽  
Joan H Schiller ◽  
Fang Liz Zhou ◽  
...  

Importance: Nomogram prognostic models can facilitate cancer patient treatment plans and patient enrollment in clinical trials. Objective: The primary objective is to provide an updated and accurate prognostic model for predicting the survival of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, and the secondary objective is to validate a published nomogram prognostic model for NSCLC using an independent patient cohort. Design: 1817 patients with advanced NSCLC from the control arms of 4 Phase III randomized clinical trials were included in this study. Data from 524 NSCLC patients from one of these trials were used to validate a previously published nomogram and then used to develop an updated nomogram. Patients from the other 3 trials were used as independent validation cohorts of the new nomogram. The prognostic performances were comprehensively evaluated using hazard ratios, integrated area under the curve (AUC), concordance index, and calibration plots. Setting: General community. Main outcome: A nomogram model was developed to predict overall survival in NSCLC patients. Results: We demonstrated the prognostic power of the previously published model in an independent cohort. The updated prognostic model contains the following variables: sex, histology, performance status, liver metastasis, hemoglobin level, white blood cell counts, peritoneal metastasis, skin metastasis, and lymphocyte percentage. This model was validated using various evaluation criteria on the 3 independent cohorts with heterogeneous NSCLC populations. In the SUN1087 patient cohort, the continuous risk score output by the nomogram achieved an integrated area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.83, a log-rank P-value of 3.87e−11, and a concordance index of 0.717. In the SAVEONCO patient cohort, the integrated area under the ROC curve was 0.755, the log-rank P-value was 4.94e−6 and the concordance index was 0.678. In the VITAL patient cohort, the integrated area under the ROC curve was 0.723, the log-rank P-value was 1.36e−11, and the concordance index was 0.654. We implemented the proposed nomogram and several previously published prognostic models on an online Web server for easy user access. Conclusions: This nomogram model based on basic clinical features and routine lab testing predicts individual survival probabilities for advanced NSCLC and exhibits cross-study robustness.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Tongwei Zhao ◽  
Guangyun Mao ◽  
Ming Chen

Background. Cytokeratin 19 fragment 21-1 (CYFRA21-1) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) are effective prognostic biomarkers for lung cancer. This study investigated the predictive effects of change rates of CYFRA21-1 and CEA before and after the first cycles of chemotherapy on advanced IIIb/IIIc or IV stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Methods. Data of 103 NSCLC patients who received chemotherapy in Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital from February 2018 to November 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients received platinum doublet chemotherapy for at least 2 cycles. CYFRA21-1 and CEA levels of patients were detected before and after the first chemotherapy cycle, respectively. After the second cycle, the efficacy was evaluated, and patients were divided into the disease control (DC) and progressive disease (PD) groups. The generalized linear model (GLM) and linear trend test assessed the relationship between change rates of CYFRA21-1 and CEA levels and chemotherapeutic efficacy before and after chemotherapy. Moreover, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve determined the predictive value of change rates of CYFRA21-1 and CEA on chemotherapeutic efficacy. Results. After the second chemotherapeutic cycle, there were 92 patients in the DC group and 11 in the PD group. GLM and linear trend test both indicated that change rates of CYFRA21-1 and CEA were inversely correlated with chemotherapeutic efficacy for NSCLC. Change rates of CYFRA21-1 and CEA were used to predict area under the ROC curve of chemotherapeutic efficacy (0.87, 0.71-1.00), which is better than single index prediction of CYFRA21-1 (0.71, 0.49-0.94) or CEA change rate (0.85, 0.69-1.00) ( p < 0.001 ). Conclusion. Before and after chemotherapy of the first cycle for advanced NSCLC patients, combining serum CYFRA21-1 and CEA levels could increase sensitivity and specificity to predict the chemotherapeutic efficacy and guide the following therapy of advanced NSCLC patients.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shidan Wang ◽  
Lin Yang ◽  
Matthew Maclean ◽  
David E. Gerber ◽  
Guanghua Xiao ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundSmall-cell lung cancer (SCLC) accounts for almost 15% of lung cancer cases in the United States. Nomogram prognostic models could greatly facilitate risk stratification and treatment planning, as well as more refined enrollment criteria for clinical trials. We developed and validated a new nomogram prognostic model for SCLC patients using a large SCLC patient cohort from the National Cancer Database (NCDB).MethodsClinical data of 24,680 SCLC patients diagnosed from 2004 to 2011 were used to develop the nomogram prognostic model. The model was then validated using an independent cohort of 9,700 SCLC patients diagnosed from 2012 to 2013. The prognostic performance was evaluated using p value, concordance index and integrated Area Under the (time dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic) Curve.ResultsThe following variables were contained in the final prognostic model: age, gender, race, ethnicity, Charlson/Deyo Score, TNM Stage (assigned according to the AJCC 8th edition), treatment type (combination of surgery, radiation therapy and chemotherapy), and laterality. The model was validated in an independent testing group with a concordance index of 0.722 ± 0.004 and an integrated AUC of 0.79. The nomogram model has a significantly higher prognostic accuracy than previously developed models, including the AJCC 8th edition TNM-staging system. We implemented the proposed nomogram and two previously published nomograms in an online webserver.ConclusionsWe developed a nomogram prognostic model for SCLC patients, and validated the model using an independent patient cohort. The nomogram performs better than earlier models, including AJCC staging.


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Wang ◽  
Zhixuan Ren ◽  
Bentong Yu ◽  
Jian Tang

Abstract Introduction Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have become a frontier in the field of clinical technology for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Currently, the predictive biomarker of ICIs mainly including the expression of PD-L1, TMB, TIICs, MMR and MSI-H. However, there are no official biomarkers to guide the treatment of ICIs and to determine the prognosis. Therefore, it is essential to explore a systematic nomogram to predict the prognosis of ICIs treatment in NSCLC Methods In this work, we obtained gene expression and clinical data of NSCLC patients from the TCGA database. Immune-related genes (IRGs) were downloaded from the ImmPort database. The detailed clinical annotation and response data of 240 advanced NSCLC patients who received ICIs treatment were obtained from the cBioPortal for Cancer Genomics. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to perform survival analyses, and selected clinical variables to develop a novel nomogram. The prognostic significance of FGFR4 was validated by another cohort in cBioPortal for Cancer Genomics. Results 3% of the NSCLC patients harbored FGFR4 mutations. The mutation of FGFR4 were confirmed to be associated with PD-L1, and TMB. Patients harbored FGFR4 mutations were found to have a better prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) to ICIs treatment (FGFR4: P = 0.0209). Here, we built and verified a novel nomogram to predict the prognosis of ICIs treatment for NSCLC patients. Conclusion Our results showed that FGFR4 could serve as novel biomarkers to predict the prognosis of ICIs treatment of advanced NSCLC. Our systematic prognostic nomogram showed a great potential to predict the prognosis of ICIs for advanced NSCLC patients.


2022 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Xu ◽  
Haiyan Xu ◽  
Zhiyi Wan ◽  
Guangjian Yang ◽  
Lu Yang ◽  
...  

BackgroundAnlotinib is a multi-targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor mainly targeting angiogenesis signaling. The predictive marker of anlotinib’s efficacy remains elusive. This study was designed to explore the predictive marker of anlotinib in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).MethodsWe prospectively enrolled 52 advanced NSCLC patients who underwent at least one line of targeted therapy or chemotherapy between August 2018 and March 2020. Patients were divided into durable responders (DR) and non-durable responders (NDR) based on the median progression-free survival (PFS, 176 days). The Olink Immuno-Oncology panel (92 proteins) was used to explore the predictive protein biomarkers in plasma samples before treatment (baseline) and on the first treatment evaluation (paired).ResultsAt baseline, the response to anlotinib was not significantly associated with age, gender, smoke history, histology, oligo-metastases, EGFR mutations, and other clinical characteristics. The results of PFS-related protein biomarkers at baseline were all not satisfying. Then we assessed the changes of 92 proteins levels in plasma on the first treatment evaluation. We obtained a Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) model based on 7 proteins, with an accuracy of 100% in the original data and an accuracy of 89.2% in cross validation. The 7 proteins were CD70, MIC-A/B, LAG3, CAIX, PDCD1, MMP12, and PD-L2. Multivariate Cox analysis further showed that the changes of CD70 (HR 25.48; 95% CI, 4.90–132.41, P=0.000) and MIC-A/B (HR 15.04; 95% CI, 3.81–59.36, P=0.000) in plasma were the most significant prognostic factors for PFS.ConclusionWe reported herein a LDA model based on the changes of 7 proteins levels in plasma before and after treatment, which could predict anlotinib responders among advanced NSCLC patients with an accuracy of 100%. Further studies are warranted to verify the prediction performance of the LDA model.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
You-Lung Chang ◽  
Yen-Fu Chen ◽  
Ying-Yin Chen ◽  
Shih-Chieh Chang ◽  
Cheng-Yu Chang ◽  
...  

Abstract Backgrounds: Astrocyte-elevated gene-1 (AEG-1) functions as an oncogene and regulates angiogenesis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In this prospective study, we assessed the values of plasma AEG-1 mRNA expression by liquid biopsy associated with tumor response and survival in NSCLC patients treated with pemetrexed. Methods: Patients diagnosed advanced NSCLC were enrolled to be treated with pemetrexed combined platinum as first-line chemotherapy. All patients underwent blood sampling before any cancer treatment (C0) and at first response evaluation after two cycles (C2) treatments. Response to chemotherapy and survival were assessed. Plasma mRNA was extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) and quantification of RNA was performed by real-time PCR.Results: A total of 50 patients with advanced NSCLC were included and 13 of 50 patients combined with bevacizumab. In patient groups of SD (n = 13) and PD (n = 10), the plasma mRNA of AEG-1, thymidylate synthase (TS) and CK19 were elevated significantly at C2 compared to patients in treatment response group (PR, n = 27) (PR v.s. SD or PD, AEG-1: 1.22 ± 0.80 v.s. 4.51 ± 15.45, p = 0.043). NSCLC patients had elevated AEG-1 (AEG-1 ≥ 2) after 2-cycle chemotherapy had shorter PFS and OS (high AEG-1 v.s. low AEG-1, median, PFS: 5.5 v.s. 11.9 months, p = 0.021; OS: 25.9 v.s. 40.8 months, p = 0.019, respectively). In Cox regression analysis, increased plasma mRNA expression of AEG-1indicated poor prognosis in survival.Conclusion: Circulating mRNA concentration of AEG-1 could be a predictive and prognostic biomarker in NSCLC patients treated with pemetrexed. Increased expression of AEG-1 contributed to the chemoresistance and caused lung cancer progression.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianqian Wang ◽  
Wen Gao ◽  
Fangyan Gao ◽  
Shidai Jin ◽  
Tianyu Qu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background To compare the benefits and explore the cause of acquired resistance of epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor (EGFR-TKI) and its combination with chemotherapy in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients harboring EGFR mutation in a real-life setting.Methods This retrospective analysis included 117 advanced NSCLC patients with EGFR mutation who underwent next-generation sequencing (NGS) prior to treatment. The combination group included 50 patients who received the regimen of EGFR-TKI combined with chemotherapy, while the EGFR-TKI monotherapy group included 67 patients treated with TKI only. The primary endpoint of this study was progression-free survival (PFS); the secondary endpoints were overall survival (OS), response rate, and toxicity.Results The median PFS was significantly longer in the combination group than in the EGFR-TKI monotherapy group (19.00 months [95% CI, 14.674-23.326] vs. 11.70 months [95% CI, 10.807-12.593], p = 0.000). Subgroup analysis showed a similar trend of results. The median OS was not reached in the combination group and was 38.50 (95% CI, 35.300-41.700) months in the EGFR-TKI monotherapy group (p = 0.586). Patients in the combination group were more likely to experience adverse events, most of which showed the severity of grade 1 or 2. T790M mutation remains the main reason for acquired resistance, and the frequency of T790M mutation was similar between the two groups (p = 0.898). Conclusions Compared with EGFR-TKI monotherapy, EGFR-TKI combined with chemotherapy significantly improved PFS in advanced NSCLC patients with EGFR mutation, with acceptable toxicity.


2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 374-381
Author(s):  
Fadi Najjar ◽  
Ghassan Al-Massarani ◽  
Israa Banat ◽  
Moosheer Alammar

Background Circulating endothelial cells (CECs) reflect the neovascularization in the tumor mass. We therefore investigated the potential role of CEC kinetics after first-line chemotherapy in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Methods Peripheral blood samples were obtained from 45 healthy subjects and 51 naïve patients with advanced NSCLC. Quantification of CD146+ CECs was performed using immunomagnetic separation (IMS). Results Pretreatment and posttreatment CEC levels in NSCLC patients were significantly higher than in healthy subjects (p<0.0001). An objective response was achieved after chemotherapy with partial response (PR) or stable disease (SD) in 26 patients, whereas the remaining 25 patients had progressive disease (PD). Baseline CEC levels were significantly higher in PR/SD patients than in PD patients (p = 0.039). After chemotherapy, CEC count significantly decreased in PR/SD patients (p = 0.014) and increased in patients with PD (p = 0.019). Moreover, there was a significant difference in the percentage change of CEC counts between the 2 groups (p = 0.0016). No significant difference in the median progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) was observed between patients with high baseline CEC counts and those with low baseline CEC levels. However, patients with high percentage change in CEC count had longer OS than those with low percentage change after chemotherapy (p = 0.05). Conclusions Changes in CEC counts after chemotherapy reflect tumor response in advanced NSCLC patients. Moreover, high percentage changes in CEC counts after chemotherapy may predict longer OS in advanced NSCLC. High baseline CEC levels might be an indicator of tumor response in advanced NSCLC patients after first-line chemotherapy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianming Hu ◽  
Jiawei Hu ◽  
Xiaolan Liu ◽  
Long Li ◽  
Xue Bai

Abstract Background: Single agent maintenance therapy has been approved for the treatment of advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) due to its potential survival benefits, but whether combined maintenance therapy would improve the survival of advanced NSCLC remains undetermined. Methods: Relevant trials were identified by searching electronic databases and conference meetings. Prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing combination maintenance therapy in advanced NSCLC patients were included. Outcomes of interest included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and grade 3–4 toxicities. Results: A total of 1950 advanced NSCLC patients received combination maintenance treatment from six trials were included for analysis. The use of doublet maintenance therapy in NSCLC patients significantly improved PFS (HR 0.74, 95%CI: 0.59–0.93, P = 0.010), but not for OS (HR 0.95, 95%CI: 0.85–1.07, P = 0.40) in comparison with single agent maintenance therapy. Similar results were observed in sub-group analysis according to treatment regimens. In addition, there was no significantly risk difference between doublet and single agent maintenance therapy in terms of grade 3/4 hematologic and non-hematologic toxicities. Conclusion: The findings of the present study show that doublet combination maintenance therapy is superior to single agent maintenance therapy in terms of PFS, without increased grade 3–4 toxicities. Future prospective studies are recommended to clearly assess the long-term clinical benefit of doublet maintenance therapy and its impact on health-related quality of life.


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Liu ◽  
Wang Jing ◽  
Ning An ◽  
Aijie Li ◽  
Weiwei Yan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Noninvasive prognostic biomarkers are needed for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with different histological types to identify cases with poor survival. Here, we investigated the prognostic values of peripheral CD8+CD28+ T cells and CD8+CD28− T cells in advanced NSCLC patients treated with chemo(radio)therapy and the impact of histological type on them. Methods Of 232 registered advanced NSCLC patients, 101 treatment-naïve individuals were eligible and included in our study. Flow cytometry was used to evaluate CD8+CD28+ T cells, CD8+CD28− T cells, CD4+ CD25hi T cells, B cells, natural killer cells, γδT cells, and natural killer T cells in patients’ peripheral blood. Results The median follow-up time was 13.6 months. Fifty-nine (58.4%) patients died by the end of our study. Fifty-three of the 101 advanced NSCLC cases selected for our study were adenocarcinomas (ADs), and 48 were squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs). Multivariate analyses showed that increased levels of CD8+CD28+ T cells independently predicted favorable overall survival (OS) [hazard ratio (HR): 0.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.30–0.89, P = 0.021] and progression-free survival (PFS) (HR: 0.66, 95% CI 0.37–0.93, P = 0.038) in ADs, but the prediction in SCCs was not statistically significant. In contrast, high levels of CD8+CD28− T cells independently predicted unfavorable OS (HR: 1.41, 95% CI 1.17–3.06, P = 0.035) and PFS (HR: 2.01, 95% CI 1.06–3.85, P = 0.029) in SCCs, but the prediction in ADs was not statistically significant. ADs had higher levels of CD4+CD25hi T cells and CD8+CD28− T cells and lower NK cells (all P < 0.05) than SCCs. Conclusions Our findings uncovered the prognostic values of peripheral CD8+CD28+ T cells and CD8+CD28− T cells in advanced NSCLC patients treated with chemo(radio)therapy, which could help to identify patients with poor outcomes and refine treatment strategies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Rocco ◽  
Luigi D. Gravara ◽  
Cesare Gridelli

Background: In the recent years, immunotherapeutics and specifically immunecheckpoints inhibitors have marked a significant shift in the diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC), allowing us to use immunotherapeutics alone or combined with chemotherapy for a great subset of patients. However, new interesting approaches are being presently investigated, markedly immunotherapy combinations, that is, the use of two or more immunotherapeutics combined. Methods: In particular, the combination of anti-PD-1 nivolumab and anti-CTLA-4 ipilimumab has already provided groundbreaking positive results in the advanced NSCLC and other combinations are currently under investigation. Results: Therefore, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive state-of-the-art review about immunotherapy combination, along with suggestions about future directions. A comprehensive literature search was carried out to identify eligible studies from MEDLINE/PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov. Conclusion: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab represent the most promising immunotherapy combination for the treatment of advanced NSCLC patients; safety, tolerability and efficacy of new immunotherapeutics (in monotherapy and in immunotherapy combinations) must be further assessed in future studies.


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