scholarly journals Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 274-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Prosser
Keyword(s):  
Vote Share ◽  
General Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Local Election ◽  
General Elections

Local elections may strain Tunisia's unity government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Governance ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Campaign Strategies ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Election ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Results

Significance Military and security personnel voted early on April 29, with a turnout of 12%. There are concerns that widespread apathy, coupled with a desire among the Tunisian electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the unity government’s performance, will dampen turnout and undermine the municipal councils from the outset. Impacts The local election results could cause parties to reassess campaign strategies for the 2019 general elections. Local governance will be effective only if adequate mechanisms are in place to transfer financial resources. The municipal elections present an opportunity for women and younger candidates.

scholarly journals Participation Dynamics of Voters Using ID Card in Local Elections: A Case Study of the 2015 Local Election in South Sulawesi

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Andi Ahmad Yani ◽  
Andi Yudha Yunus ◽  
Muhammad Iqbal Latief
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Legal Documents ◽  
Local Election ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Specific Regulation

The number of voters is an essential element in the legitimacy of a democratic regime. There are various factors that may influence voter turnout in elections; among other factors particularly is electoral management in voter’s registration. The problem of voters' data has always been a scourge in every general or local election due to poor population data management in Indonesia. Hence, the General Elections Commission (KPU) responded to this issue with a number of policies to increase the number of voter participation in all elections, especially for those who have not been registered properly. The Commission made a specific regulation to allow voters who were not registered in the voter lists (DPS) to use their ID card (KTP) or other legal documents in voting. This study used qualitative methods in five regions in the South Sulawesi Province that conducted the 2015 local election. This study explores the dynamics of voters using ID card or other legal documents by identifying their reasons and characteristics in using KTP as well as examining the responses of the local election institutions regarding this policy. This condition tends to apply to countries in the transitional period of democracy where the electoral administration system has not been properly regulated. The causes include the failure of administrative systems of management and population data collection with e-KTP card system in Indonesia.

Partisan Power Play: The Origins of Local Election Timing as an American Political Institution

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah F. Anzia
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Local Election ◽  
Election Timing ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Established Fact ◽  
American Cities

Eighty percent of American cities today hold their general elections on different days than state and national elections. It is an established fact that voter turnout in these off-cycle local elections is far lower than turnout in local elections held concurrently with state and national elections. In this paper, I demonstrate that the timing of city elections has been an important determinant of voter turnout since before the Civil War. By examining three large American cities over the course of the nineteenth century, I find that American political parties regularly manipulated the timing of city elections to secure an edge over their rivals. I show that the decisions to change the election dates of these cities were contentious, partisan, and motivated by an expectation of subsequent electoral gain. The Progressive municipal reformers of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries continued in this tradition when they separated city elections from state and national elections, and the local election schedule they implemented has largely persisted until today.

Does Local Party Organization Matter?

1972 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Pimlott
Keyword(s):  
Local Elections ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Party Organization ◽  
Local Election ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Local Party

Are local election campaigns just periodic acts of renewal, seasonal rites, or do they gain extra votes? Whatever may be true at general elections, low turnout is a reason for thinking that the scope for organization at local elections may be considerable.

scholarly journals Rallies around the flag-draped coffins: the electoral effects of security force casualties in terror attacks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Resul Umit
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Similar Percentage ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Security forces are one of the main targets of political violence. This paper examines the effect of their casualties on electoral outcomes. Between two general elections in 2015, Turkey experienced a series of attacks that killed 153 members of its security forces. Based on the as-if random assignment of their funerals across the country, I estimate that government vote share increases in the funeral places of security force terror victims. However, in the localities with recurring funerals, it decreases by a similar percentage. These non-linear changes provide strong evidence for the rally theory.

Position of Nepali Congress in the Electoral Politics of Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-42
Author(s):  
Amrit Kumar Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Representative Democracy ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Status ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Commission

Nepali Congress (NC) is one of the oldest political party of Nepal. It played a vital role to abolish the century long autocratic Rana rule in 1951. It fought against the party-less Panchayat system and the regressive step of the king. It opposes active kingship and communism. It believes in a representative democracy. It has participated in every election of Nepal that was conducted democratically. It won more than two-thirds majority seats in the first general election held in 1959. In every election, it stayed in the first or second position. This article tries to analyze the status of NC in the elections of Nepal. Data of seven general elections were examined in this article. Data were extracted basically from the reports of the Election Commission.

scholarly journals PERKEMBANGAN PEMILIHAN PRESIDEN DAN WAKIL PRESIDEN DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Indarja Indarja
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
The People ◽  
General Elections ◽  
History Approach

The aim of this paper is to analyze the regulation of general election of President and vice President in Indonesia. The method used is the normative juridical, with the history approach. Based on  results that the Election of President and Vice President in Indonesia changes from time to time, from the period 1945-1950 President and Vice President elected by PPKI by acclamation. The period 1950-1959 elected by agreement between the state of RIS and RI. After the 1959 period until now, the President and Vice President were elected by the people through general elections.

scholarly journals CHALLENGES OF THE INDONESIAN REPUBLIC GENERAL ELECTION COMMISSION (KPU RI) TO INCREASE VOTER PARTICIPATION

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Andina Elok Puri Maharani ◽  
Rizma Dwi Nidia
Keyword(s):  
Public Participation ◽  
Community Participation ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
General Election ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Election Commission

<p>This research examines problems that arise and become obstacles in the process of organizing general elections and the challenges of the General Election Commission (KPU) in increasing voter participation in general elections.</p><p>The purpose of this study is to find out what obstacles arise in the implementation of the General Election related to the role of the KPU to increase public participation in general elections. This type of research is empirical research and the data used are primary data by conducting interviews with KPU commissioners accompanied by an analysis of secondary data in the form of legislation. The results of this study indicate that barriers that can interfere with the process of holding elections, arise from news hoaxes and some obstacles that are classified based on the group of voters. Every segment of society has different needs, so the method used to increase community participation is tailored to the needs of the community in each segment.</p>

scholarly journals Introduction (Special Edition – The Presidential Nomination Process)

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 289-291
Author(s):  
Wayne P. Steger
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Special Edition ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Democratic Country

Understanding why certain candidates get nominated is an important aspect of political scientists. This topic is a narrow one and influences a wider variety of subjects such as the political parties, general elections, and even the extent to which the United States is a democratic country. Presidential nominees matter—they become the foremost spokesperson and the personified image of the party (Miller and Gronbeck 1994), the main selectors of issues and policies for their party’s general election campaign (Petrocik 1996; Tedesco 2001), a major force in defining the ideological direction of a political party (Herrera 1995), and candidates that voters select among in the general election. This volume is devoted to presidential nominations and the 2008 nomination specifically.

scholarly journals Consumption of Politic Parties, in the Areas Where the Same Party Has Governed (Strongholds)

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-158
Author(s):  
Erindi Bejko
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
National Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Political Force ◽  
The Past ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Future ◽  
General Elections

Abstract Political parties in Albania on several occasions during the past two decades have won the election in certain areas over 3 times in a row. While victory and governance of the same area, for sure creates a margin consumption which has affected the dynamics of the bastions at least in the recent national election. Parties are consumed in their strongholds if they decide the same candidates, either as a political force. In the focus of this article, will be the consuming steps of political parties in their stronghold areas, either reflecting the fall results during the election process. Will we have a final rupture in Albania consumption bastions of political parties and how would be the future of dynamic bastion, will be the question of this article scientific research. A fracture would have strongholds in shqipare perfuindimtare the consumption of political parties and how will be the future of dynamics will be bastions of this artikulil question scientific research. Bastion’s consumption occurs mainly from major political forces on the left if either of right on the study will be taken 4 constituencies which voted for the same party in three elections one by one. In our focus will be general elections, not local elections.

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