scholarly journals Building transformative capacity in southern Africa: Surfacing knowledge and challenging structures through participatory Vulnerability and Risk Assessments

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Morchain ◽  
Dian Spear ◽  
Gina Ziervogel ◽  
Hillary Masundire ◽  
Margaret N Angula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Power Dynamics ◽  
Participatory Approaches ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments ◽  
Governance Systems ◽  
The Social ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
Risk Assessment Methodology

Although participatory approaches are becoming more widespread, to date vulnerability assessments have largely been conducted by technocrats and have paid little attention to underlying causes of vulnerability, such as inequality and biased governance systems. Participatory assessments that recognise the social roots of vulnerability, however, are critical in helping individuals and institutions rethink their understanding of and responses to climate change impacts. This paper interrogates the contribution of Oxfam’s Vulnerability and Risk Assessment methodology to enabling transformation at both personal and institutional levels. Three Vulnerability and Risk Assessment exercises were conducted in Malawi, Botswana and Namibia by one or more of the authors in 2015 and 2016. Reflecting on these workshops, we explore the contribution that a process like the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment may bring to transformation. We conclude that these types of inclusive and representative participatory approaches can shift narratives and power dynamics, allow marginal voices to be heard, build cross–scalar relationships and enable the co-creation of solutions. Such approaches can play a key role in moving towards transformational thinking and action, especially in relation to climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of climate change impacts and the post-mining land reclamation on the example of the “Brzeziny” Natural Aggregate Mine

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Pawełczyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mining Area ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Optimal Method

Abstract Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects manifested in increasingly extreme meteorological phenomena are one of the most important contemporary global challenges. In the face of new hazards, numerous measures are taken to adapt environmental components and ventures to climate change, such as the reclamation of degraded areas – recognized as a key adaptation and mitigation action. The success and the property of selecting these measures, including reclamation, requires a detailed recognition of the risk of occurrence of various hazards and of the severity of their consequences in a given area. The study assessed the risk of the climate change impacts on the post-mining area and based on its results an optimal method of reclamation of the “Brzeziny” gravel pit was proposed, aimed at the maximum adaptation of the area to the occurrence of potential climate events. The risk analysis was based on elements of the common risk assessment methodology (CRAM) and enriched with elements of the analytic hierarchy process method (AHP). Moreover, the event tree analysis (ETA) logic technique was used to assess the proposed adaptation measures at the reclamation stage.

scholarly journals Values and motivations in tourist perceptions of last-chance tourism

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Hindley ◽  
Xavier Font
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Photo Elicitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Construction Technique ◽  
Projective Techniques ◽  
Personal Variables ◽  
The Social ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Nuanced Understanding

Tourists' perceptions of climate change affect decisions and choices to visit destinations, which are disappearing because of climate change impacts. Values and motivations are two of the personal variables underpinning tourists' decisions. The study addresses both the limited values research in tourism and reveals unconscious motives by using projective techniques. Projective techniques avoid some of the social desirability bias present in much ethical research. Choice ordering technique and the list of values assist by assigning importance, with narrative responses providing meaning. The construction technique builds a story from a stimulus, with photo-elicitation using participants' personal holiday photographs. A sample of pre, during and post visit tourists to the Arctic and Venice were interviewed. Results, which provide a more nuanced understanding of how the personal variables of values and motivations are underpinned by self-interest, inform policies and the messages designed to influence pro-sustainability behaviour.

scholarly journals Assessment of Livelihood Vulnerability of Fisherfolks in Coastal and Freshwater Fishing Communities of Ilaje in Ondo State

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Siyanbola A. Omitoyin ◽  
Adeniyi P. Ogungbure ◽  
Kemisola D. Osakuade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Fishing Communities ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ondo State ◽  
Food Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Score

The study assessed the livelihood vulnerability of fisherfolks in both coastal and freshwater fishing communities of Ilaje Local Government area of Ondo state, Nigeria. Structured questionnaires were used to collect information from 200 fisherfolks from both communities. Data were analyzed using the descriptive statistics, Livelihood Vulnerability Index data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. The results showed that majority of the fisherfolks from freshwater and coastal communities were below 46 years old, respondents from the freshwater communities were 95% male, 5% females while all (100%) respondents in the coastal communities were male with majority assenting to fishing as their primary occupation. The freshwater communities showed greater vulnerability on the socio-demographic profile (SDP) index than coastal communities (SDP freshwater 0.49;SDPcoastal communities 0.34). Freshwater also showed greater vulnerability on the livelihood strategies component (0.45) than coastal communities (0.40). The social networks indicators were the same for the two communities. The overall health vulnerability score for freshwater communities (0.46) was higher than that for coastal communities (0.44).  Also, the overall food vulnerability score for freshwater households (0.23) was greater than that of coastal community households (0.22). Freshwater households had a lower vulnerability score (0.03) for the water component than coastal communities (0.17). Based on the incidents of flooding, droughts, storms and erosion, households in the coastal communities (0.50) were more vulnerable to natural disasters than those in the freshwater communities (0.41). Overall, coastal communities had a higher Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) than freshwater (0.357 versus 0.356).This logical approach may be used to monitor vulnerability, programs and resources to assist fisherfolks. Also, there should be enlightenment on how to mitigate the factors enhancing climate change while good infrastructure and aids be given to those who suffer losses due to climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Perception and adaptation of agroforestry farmers in Upper Citarum Watershed to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 917 (1) ◽  
pp. 012020
Author(s):  
Sumaryanto ◽  
F Nurfatriani ◽  
S Astana ◽  
Erwidodo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Farming System ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Social Forestry ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
The Social ◽  
Cross Tabulation ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract Agroforestry is a form of an agricultural system that is adaptive to climate change. Based on the institutional form, the farming system developed under the social forestry program is agroforestry. This form of agroforestry is the essential capital for farmers to establish in their cultivated lands further. This study aim to determine agroforestry farmers’ perceptions in the Upper Citarum Watershed on climate change and the adaptation activities. The sample farmers are a sub-set of farmer households sample in the socio-economic survey conducted by ICASEPS – ACIAR in the collaborative research in 2019. The reliability of the data on variables that reflect farmers’ perceptions of adverse shocks experienced, which directly or indirectly related to climate changes, is tested with Cronbach’s Alpha. Data analysis is performed by cross-tabulation, while multiple regressions are used to determine the effect of social forestry cultivated areas on farmers’ income. The results show that more than 55 percent of farmers participating in social forestry say that since the last ten years climate patterns are increasingly unpredictable. The most negative impacts of climate change impacts are indirect effects which are pests and diseases. Popular adaptation are reactive ones, namely increasing the use of pesticides and more intensive use of inorganic fertilizers. Farmers adaptation which are more synergistic with mitigation such as organic farming or cultivation of perennial crops are still relatively low. The increase in the arable land area due to social forestry has significantly increased farmer’s household income. Referring to this phenomenon, conducive policies to increase farmer participation in these adaptation actions are needed.

A strategic analysis of climate vulnerability of national park resources and values

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Michalak ◽  
Josh Lawler ◽  
John Gross ◽  
Caitlin Littlefield
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
National Park ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Cultural Resources ◽  
Vulnerability Factors ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments ◽  
Wide Range

The U.S. national parks have experienced significant climate-change impacts and rapid, on-going changes are expected to continue. Despite the significant climate-change vulnerabilities facing parks, relatively few parks have conducted comprehensive climate-change vulnerability assessments, defined as assessments that synthesize vulnerability information from a wide range of sources, identify key climate-change impacts, and prioritize vulnerable park resources (Michalak et al. In review). In recognition that funding and planning capacity is limited, this project was initiated to identify geographies, parks, and issues that are high priorities for conducting climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVA) and strategies to efficiently address the need for CCVAs across all U.S. National Park Service (NPS) park units (hereafter “parks”) and all resources. To help identify priority geographies and issues, we quantitatively assessed the relative magnitude of vulnerability factors potentially affecting park resources and values. We identified multiple vulnerability factors (e.g., temperature change, wildfire potential, number of at-risk species, etc.) and sought existing datasets that could be developed into indicators of these factors. To be included in the study, datasets had to be spatially explicit or already summarized for individual parks and provide consistent data for at least all parks within the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The need for consistent data across such a large geographic extent limited the number of datasets that could be included, excluded some important drivers of climate-change vulnerability, and prevented adequate evaluation of some geographies. The lack of adequately-scaled data for many key vulnerability factors, such as freshwater flooding risks and increased storm activity, highlights the need for both data development and more detailed vulnerability assessments at local to regional scales where data for these factors may be available. In addition, most of the available data at this scale were related to climate-change exposures, with relatively little data available for factors associated with climate-change sensitivity or adaptive capacity. In particular, we lacked consistent data on the distribution or abundance of cultural resources or accessible data on infrastructure across all parks. We identified resource types, geographies, and critical vulnerability factors that lacked data for NPS’ consideration in addressing data gaps. Forty-seven indicators met our criteria, and these were combined into 21 climate-change vulnerability factors. Twenty-seven indicators representing 12 vulnerability factors addressed climate-change exposure (i.e., projected changes in climate conditions and impacts). A smaller number of indictors measured sensitivity (12 indicators representing 5 vulnerability factors). The sensitivity indicators often measured park or landscape characteristics which may make resources more or less responsive to climate changes (e.g., current air quality) as opposed to directly representing the sensitivity of specific resources within the park (e.g., a particular rare species or type of historical structure). Finally, 6 indicators representing 4 vulnerability factors measured external adaptive capacity for living resources (i.e., characteristics of the park and/or surrounding landscape which may facilitate or impede species adaptation to climate changes). We identified indicators relevant to three resource groups: terrestrial living, aquatic living (including living cultural resources such as culturally significant landscapes, plant, or animal species) and non-living resources (including infrastructure and non-living cultural resources such as historic buildings or archeological sites). We created separate indicator lists for each of these resource groups and analyzed them separately. To identify priority geographies within CONUS,...

scholarly journals Industrial accidents triggered by natural hazards: an emerging risk issue

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 921-929 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Krausmann ◽  
V. Cozzani ◽  
E. Salzano ◽  
E. Renni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Emergency Planning ◽  
Hazardous Substances ◽  
Industrial Accidents ◽  
Chemical Accidents ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Emerging Risk ◽  
Underlying Causes

Abstract. The threat of natural hazards impacting chemical facilities and infrastructures with the subsequent release of hazardous substances has been recognised as an emerging risk which is likely to be exacerbated by the ongoing climate change. Within the European FP7 project iNTeg-Risk, efforts are dedicated to address the problem of Natech accidents by trying to understand their underlying causes and by developing methodologies and tools to assess Natech risk. Special attention is thereby given to the risk of chemical accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning. This work outlines the ongoing efforts in the development of new concepts and tools for Natech hazard and vulnerability ranking, risk assessment, risk-based design, and emergency planning and early warning.

scholarly journals Implementing the urban food–water–energy nexus through urban laboratories: a systematic literature review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darin Wahl ◽  
Barry Ness ◽  
Christine Wamsler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Knowledge Development ◽  
Material Flows ◽  
Participatory Approaches ◽  
Social Responses ◽  
Social Patterns ◽  
Water Energy Nexus ◽  
Urban Level

AbstractThe sustainability of complex resource systems, such as the food, water, and energy (FWE) nexus, is increasingly threatened by climate change impacts, expanding populations, urbanization, and economic instability. However, while research on the topic has burgeoned, studies focused on solution development and implementation, especially at the urban level, have lagged behind. Against this background, we review the urban FWE nexus literature. We focus on the operationalization of solutions for implementation, and seek to identify opportunities for participatory approaches. Our results suggest that operationalization would benefit from: (1) more fully integrating urban social complexity; (2) extending our understanding of the nexus to include social responses to the impacts of interventions; and (3) ensuring that projects build knowledge that is not only actionable, but also credible, salient, and legitimate. We then discuss the potential of local, transdisciplinary approaches, in the form of urban laboratories, to shift the focus of FWE nexus research towards operationalization. We conclude with five recommendations: (1) knowledge development should extend to implementation; (2) stakeholders should be engaged, and be able to align solutions with the agency to implement; (3) research should move beyond material flows, and focus on the behaviors, habits, and social patterns that underpin urban complexity; (4) FWE nexus thinking should become part of participatory/laboratory approaches; and (5) policymakers should integrate nexus research into municipal strategies and plans.

scholarly journals Assessment of Vulnerability of Rice farmers to Climate Variability in Kogi State, North Central Nigeria: A Vulnerability Composite Index Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-45
Author(s):  
B. A. Ocheni ◽  
M. A. Ndanitsa ◽  
K. M. Baba ◽  
M. A. Ojo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Rice Farmers ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments ◽  
Index Approach ◽  
High Degree

Vulnerability assessments to climate change are a possible criterion for adaptation and have a long history on multidisciplinary research. Identification and assessing the degree of vulnerability as a result of climate change is an essential pre-requisite for reducing climate change impacts. The study focuses on vulnerability of rice farmers to climate change in Kogi State, Nigeria. Data for the study were obtained from primary and secondary sources with the aid of structured questionnaire administered to 123 rice farmers from across the four agricultural zones in the State. A total of 15 environmental and socio-economic indicators were identified and analyzed to measure vulnerability status in the agricultural zones. Composite Climate Change Vulnerability Index computed from the hazards, sensitivity and adaptive capacity components revealed that all the rice farmers’ were vulnerable to climate change but vary in the degrees of vulnerability. Scores of Exposure-Sensitivity Index (ESI) suggest that rice farmers in Owolikpa and Igalaogba were most prone and susceptible to climate change whereas, Baganna, Ikande, Odoepe, and Iluke were least exposed and sensitive to climate change. Kpancehe, Kakanda, Girinya, Eggan,and Aiyetoro were categorized under very high to high degree of vulnerability while Iya, Baganna and Echa were rated low vulnerable to climate change. These prioritized areas, based on rank and degree of vulnerability, should be given immediate consideration, and measures should be taken by internalizing region specific needs to address the growing challenge of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate-economy feedbacks, temperature variability, and the social cost of carbon

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jarmo Kikstra ◽  
Paul Waidelich ◽  
James Rising ◽  
Dmitry Yumashev ◽  
Chris Hope ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Social Cost Of Carbon ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Social

<p>A key statistic describing climate change impacts is the “social cost of carbon” (SCC), the total market and non-market costs to society incurred by releasing a ton of CO<sub>2</sub>. Estimates of the SCC have risen in recent years, with improved understanding of the risk of climate change to various sectors, including agriculture [1], mortality [2], and economic growth [3].</p><p>The total risks of climate impacts also depend on the representation of human-climate feedbacks such as the effect of climate impacts on GDP growth and extremes (rather than a focus only on means), but this relationship has not been extensively studied [4-7]. In this paper, we update the widely used PAGE IAM to investigate how SCC distributions change with the inclusion of climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability. The PAGE model has recently been improved with representations of permafrost thawing and surface albedo feedback, CMIP6 scenarios, and empirical market damage estimates [8]. We study how changes from PAGE09 to PAGE-ICE affected the SCC, increasing it up to 75%, with a SCC distribution with a mean around $300 for the central SSP2-4.5 scenario. Then we model the effects of different levels of the persistence of damages, for which the persistence parameter is shown to have enormous effects. Adding stochastic interannual regional temperature variations based on an analysis of observational temperature data [9] can increase the hazard rate of economic catastrophes changes the form of the distribution of SCC values. Both the effects of temperature variability and climate-economy feedbacks are region-dependent. Our results highlight the importance of feedbacks and extremes for the understanding of the expected value, distribution, and heterogeneity of climate impacts.</p><p> </p><p>[1] Moore, F. C., Baldos, U., Hertel, T., & Diaz, D. (2017). New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon. Nature communications, 8(1), 1607.</p><p>[2] Carleton, et al. (2018). Valuing the global mortality consequences of climate change accounting for adaptation costs and benefits.</p><p>[3] Ricke, K., Drouet, L., Caldeira, K., & Tavoni, M. (2018). Country-level social cost of carbon. Nature Climate Change, 8(10), 895.</p><p>[4] Burke, M., et al. (2016). Opportunities for advances in climate change economics. Science, 352(6283), 292–293. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9634</p><p>[5] National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine. (2017). Valuing climate damages: updating estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide. National Academies Press.</p><p>[6] Stiglitz, J. E., et al.. (2017). Report of the high-level commission on carbon prices.</p><p>[7] Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., & Dahe, Q. (2012). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 9781107025). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.009</p><p>[8] Yumashev, D., et al. (2019). Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. Nature Communications, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x</p><p>[9] Brierley, C. M., Koch, A., Ilyas, M., Wennyk, N., & Kikstra, J. S. (2019, March 12). Half the world's population already experiences years 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial. https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/sbc3f</p>

scholarly journals Global vulnerability hotspots: differences and agreement between international indicator-based assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Feldmeyer ◽  
Joern Birkmann ◽  
Joanna M. McMillan ◽  
Lindsay Stringer ◽  
Walter Leal Filho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments ◽  
Regional Vulnerability ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
International Indicator

AbstractClimate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience.

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