Comparing Effectiveness of Four Graphical Designs for Probabilistic Hazard Information for Tornado Threat

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 2029-2033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed M. Miran ◽  
Chen Ling ◽  
Joseph J. James ◽  
Lans Rothfusz
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
The Other ◽  
Gray Scale ◽  
Effective Choice ◽  
Scale Design

Finding effective measures to decrease the nation’s loss resulting from severe weather is crucial. Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system is being developed for severe weather forecasting. Little work has been done to investigate which kind of graphical designs for PHI can increase users’ perception and interpretation, and elicit the best user response to the threats. This study investigates the effects of varying graphical designs for tornado threat. Four designs, “four colors”,” red scale”, “gray scale” and “contour” were tested. Radar was provided for one set of treatments, the other without radar. Analysis showed response time significantly decreased for designs without radar. “Without radar” displays helped participants make significantly more accurate decisions than “with radar” displays. Participant’s preference, the “four colors” design, was the most effective choice among “without radar” displays. For “Without radar” displays, “gray scale” design results in higher accuracy for interpreting threat information and choosing appropriate responses.

Severe-Weather Forecasting

Science ◽  
1965 ◽  
Vol 149 (3687) ◽  
pp. 924-924
Author(s):  
W. S. Barney
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Severe Weather

scholarly journals The Relationship between the Number of Emergency Room Patient Visits with Triage Accuracy and Emergency Nurse Response Time in the Covid 19 Pandemic Season

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
Ali Humardani ◽  
Yuly Peristiowati ◽  
Agusta D. Ellina
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Service ◽  
Response Time ◽  
Search Strategy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Bleeding Control ◽  
Electronic Database ◽  
Standard Operating ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Spine Control

Handling emergency cases must not only be carried out quickly but also must be precise. Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) is one of the instruments to measure the quality of service. the number of patient visits that can affect the quality of service. Triage is a way of sorting patients based on therapy needs and available resources. Therapy is based on ABC conditions (Airway, with cervical spine control, Breathing, and Circulation with bleeding control). On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic greatly affects the response time, impacting the number of patient visits. Response time is the time between the beginning of a request being responded to in other words it can be called response time. A good response time for patients is 5 minutes. The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between the number of patient visits and the accuracy of triage implementation and response time. The electronic database used is PubMed, Springer, and Google Scholar with a search strategy using the PICO (patient, intervention, comparison, and outcome) method.

Optimizing cloud cover prediction by the Ensemble for Stochastic Integration of Atmospheric Simulations (ESIAS)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yen-Sen Lu ◽  
Philipp Franke ◽  
Dorit Jerger
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
The Other ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

<p>ESIAS is an atmospheric modeling system including the ensemble version of the Weather Forecasting and Research Model (WRF V3.7.1) and the ensemble version of the EURopean Air pollution Dispersion-Inverse Model (EURAD-IM), the latter uses the output of the WRF model to calculate, amongst others, the transportation of aerosols. <!-- Maybe you can make more clear that only the wrf ensemble is used in this presentation. -->To capture extreme weather events causing the uncertainty in the solar radiation and wind speed for the renewable energy industry, we employ ESIAS by using stochastic schemes, such as Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency (SPPT) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEBS) schemes, to generate the random fields for ensembles of up to 4096 members.</p><p>     Our first goal is to produce 48 hourly weather predictions for the European domain with a 20 KM horizontal resolution to capture extreme weather events affecting wind, solar radiation, and cloud cover forecasts. We use the ensemble capability of ESIAS to optimize the physics configuration of WRF to have a more precise weather prediction. A total of 672 ensemble members are generated to study the effect of different microphysical schemes, cumulus schemes, and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes. We examine our simulation outputs with 288 simulation hours in 2015 using model input from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Our results are validated by the cloud cover data from EUMETSAT CMSAF. Besides the precision of weather forecasting, we also determine the greatest spread by generating total 768 ensemble members: 16 stochastic members for each different configurations of physical parameterizations (48 combinations). The optimization of WRF will help for improving the air quality prediction<!-- 16 member out of 48 configurations? Is this a mistake? Otherwise maybe you can be a bit more precise --><!-- I agree with Philipp, this is most unclear. --><!-- Reply to Jerger, Dorit (01/07/2021, 17:15): "..." Well I tried my best for it. The “blue” and the “cross-out red” ones are the two versions, hopefully the “blue” one is better than the “cross-out red” one. --> by EURAD-IM, which will be demonstrated on a test case basis.</p><p>     Our results show that for the performed analysis the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 5.1, WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (WSM6), and the Goddard microphysics outstand the other 11 microphysics parameterizations, where the highest daily average matching rate is 64.2%. The Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) 2 and MYNN3 schemes give better results compared to the other 8 planetary boundary layer schemes, and Grell 3D (Grell-3) works generally well with the above mentioned physical schemes. Overall, the combination of Goddard and MYNN3 produces the greatest spread comparing to the lowest spread (Morrison 2-moment & GFS) by 40%.</p>

WEATHER FORECASTING | Severe Weather Forecasting

2015 ◽  
pp. 313-322
Author(s):  
D.J. Stensrud ◽  
H.E. Brooks ◽  
S.J. Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Severe Weather

scholarly journals Forecasting Intense Cut-Off Lows in South Africa Using the 4.4 km Unified Model

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Tshimbiluni Percy Muofhe ◽  
Hector Chikoore ◽  
Mary-Jane Morongwa Bopape ◽  
Nthaduleni Samuel Nethengwe ◽  
Thando Ndarana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Unified Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Extreme Cold

Mid-tropospheric cut-off low (COL) pressure systems are linked to severe weather, heavy rainfall and extreme cold conditions over South Africa. They occur during all the above and often result in floods and snowfalls during the winter months, disrupting economic activities and causing extensive damage to infrastructure. This paper examines the evolution and circulation patterns associated with cases of severe COLs over South Africa. We evaluate the performance of the 4.4 km Unified Model (UM) which is currently used operationally by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) to simulate daily rainfall. Circulation variables and precipitation simulated by the UM were compared against European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s (ECMWF’s) ERA Interim re-analyses and GPM precipitation at 24-hour timesteps. We present five recent severe COLs, which occurred between 2016 and 2019, that had high impact and found a higher model skill when simulating heavy precipitation during the initial stages than the dissipating stages of the systems. A key finding was that the UM simulated the precipitation differently during the different stages of development and location of the systems. This is mainly due to inaccurate placing of COL centers. Understanding the performance and limitations of the UM model in simulating COL characteristics can benefit severe weather forecasting and contribute to disaster risk reduction in South Africa.

scholarly journals Online Teaching Effectiveness: A Tale of Two Instructors

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Gorsky ◽  
Ina Blau
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
Social Presence ◽  
Online Teaching ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Teaching Effectiveness ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cognitive Presence ◽  
Teaching Presence ◽  
Very High

Upon completion of a graduate level course at the Open University of Israel, one instructor received very high student ratings while the other received very low ratings. We utilized this exceptional situation to perform ad hoc analyses of their course forums. The objective of this study was to map the dialogic behavior that occurred and to create suggestions for best practice and for worst practice in terms of active and passive participation, instructor response time, and the extent of teaching presence, social presence, and cognitive presence.

Seasonal Distribution, Constitution, and Abundance of Zooplankton in Lake Erie

1969 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2459-2476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles C. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Lake Erie ◽  
Seasonal Distribution ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
The Other ◽  
Western Basin ◽  
Lake Morphology ◽  
Similar Series ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Work Done

Zooplankton samples, collected by vertical hauls from near bottom to the surface, were obtained from 28 stations along the length of Lake Erie in October 1967. A partial similar series, confined largely to the Western Basin because of ice conditions, was collected in January 1968. The results of the analyses are tabulated as numbers of individuals per m3, and are discussed. Comparisons are made with results previously published for a comparable series of stations visited in July 1967.As in July, distinct differences were to be seen among the three major basins (Western, Central, and Eastern) in the October results. These differences are summarized. In July an expected decrease in zooplankton, such as would be predicted from lake morphology, amount of runoff from rivers, etc., occurred from west to east in the lake. In October, however, the zooplankton of the Western Basin was extremely impoverished, and the expected distribution of biomass was reversed. It is shown, on the other hand, from work done by others on samples taken from the same series of stations in October, that phytoplankton, chlorophyll a, and seston exhibited the expected distribution, emphasizing the danger of judging an ecosystem by the examination of only limited components of the community and at single periods of the year.In July the bulk of the zooplankters consisted of large cladocerans (especially daphnids) and copepods. In October there were much larger populations of rotifers and of small cladocerans (Bosmina, Chydorus). Copepods were relatively sparse. The January samples were characterized by greater numbers and a greater variety of diaptomids than in October, and the rotifers remained very important. All of the January samples contained many partially decayed microcrustaceans. This was interpreted as indicating a seasonal die-off associated with the very severe weather of the period.

A Typology of Players: Between Instinctive and Contemplative *

2016 ◽  
Vol 131 (2) ◽  
pp. 859-890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel Rubinstein
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
The Other ◽  
Spearman Correlation ◽  
Median Response ◽  
Median Response Time ◽  
Shed Light

Abstract A new typology of players is proposed based on the classification of actions as either instinctive or contemplative. A person’s type is the probability of him choosing a contemplative action. To test the typology, results of 10 games are analyzed. Actions in each game were classified depending on whether their response time was more or less, respectively, than the median response time of all subjects who played the game. It is argued that fast actions are more instinctive and slow actions are more contemplative. A subject’s contemplative index (CI) is defined as the proportion of games in which he chose a contemplative action. It is found that for 8 of the 10 games, the CI in the other 9 games is positively correlated with a player’s choice of a contemplative action in that game (average Spearman correlation of 9%). The CI is used to shed light on the nature of choice in five additional games.

Comparison of Hydrogen Sulfide Sensing Properties between Multiple-Walled Carbon Nanotubes (MWNTs) and MWNTs-HAuCl4 Materials

2014 ◽  
Vol 936 ◽  
pp. 310-314
Author(s):  
Si Xuan He ◽  
Guang Zhong Xie ◽  
Ya Dong Jiang ◽  
Guang Di Zhang ◽  
Yong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Carbon Nanotubes ◽  
Scanning Electron Microscopy ◽  
Hydrogen Sulfide ◽  
Response Time ◽  
Room Temperature ◽  
The Other ◽  
High Toxicity ◽  
Walled Carbon Nanotubes ◽  
Scanning Electron

The rapid and precise detection of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) has great significance due to its high toxicity. In this work, the response properties of multiple-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) and MWNTs-HAuCl4 to H2S at room temperature were compared. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) technique was used to characterize MWNTs and MWNTs-HAuCl4 films. It was found that sensors with MWNTs-HAuCl4 exhibited much higher response value. On the other hand, sensors with MWNTs were observed to have faster response time and better recovery properties.

Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
John S. Kain ◽  
S. J. Weiss ◽  
J. J. Levit ◽  
M. E. Baldwin ◽  
D. R. Bright
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
A Value ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Convective Weather ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model were evaluated during the 2004 Storm Prediction Center–National Severe Storms Laboratory Spring Program in a simulated severe weather forecasting environment. The utility of the WRF forecasts was assessed in two different ways. First, WRF output was used in the preparation of daily experimental human forecasts for severe weather. These forecasts were compared with corresponding predictions made without access to WRF data to provide a measure of the impact of the experimental data on the human decision-making process. Second, WRF output was compared directly with output from current operational forecast models. Results indicate that human forecasts showed a small, but measurable, improvement when forecasters had access to the high-resolution WRF output and, in the mean, the WRF output received higher ratings than the operational Eta Model on subjective performance measures related to convective initiation, evolution, and mode. The results suggest that convection-allowing models have the potential to provide a value-added benefit to the traditional guidance package used by severe weather forecasters.

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