The Historical Legacy of Party System Stability in Kerala

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-204
Author(s):  
Balu Sunilraj ◽  
Oliver Heath

Kerala has one of the most stable party systems in India, and represents a clear exception to the Indian norm of volatility, instability and electoral change. In this article, we explore the geographical structure of this stability, and examine the extent to which current political divisions are a reflection of the divisions that existed at the inception of mass democracy in Kerala more than 50 years ago. First, we examine the extent to which historical legacies of party formation shape contemporary patterns of voting behaviour. Second, we examine the extent to which these historical legacies were established along social lines to do with caste, religion and class. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results.

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-85
Author(s):  
Cletus Famous Nwankwo

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of rurality on party system fragmentation in the Nigerian presidential elections of the fourth republic. The findings show that party system fragmentation (PSF) has been characteristically low in the Nigerian presidential elections and rurality does not significantly predict party system fragmentation. Rurality has a negative effect on PSF in all the elections studied except the 2003 election but only significant in the 2011 poll. Thus, the paper cast doubt on previous studies that indicate that striking rural-urban differences manifest in party system fragmentation in African elections and attribute it to previous studies’ measure of rurality. The paper argues that the use of a composite measure of rurality instead of singular measures of rurality might provide better analysis that helps us understand the effect of rurality on party systems. Also, it argues that in the study of the rural-urban difference in voting behaviour or political behaviours more broadly, data should be aggregated based on cities and non-city areas because cities have distinctive urban characters compared with non-city places. Analyses done on states or constituencies level may not reveal the rural-urban difference because states and constituencies usually have a mix of rural and urban population and other characteristics.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Damir Kapidžić ◽  
Olivera Komar

Abstract This article examines the role of ethnicity and ethnic parties as stabilizing factors in Southeast European party systems. It compares two ethnically divided countries in Southeast Europe: Bosnia and Herzegovina, where ethnic identities that form the political cleavage are firm, and Montenegro, where they are malleable. Theoretically, it addresses the debate between scholars who either find stability or instability in East European post-communist party systems. The article traces the role of ethnicity in the formation and development of electoral contests and compares the two cases by utilizing measures of block volatility, based on analysis of official electoral data. We argue that party systems in ethnically diverse countries are stable at the subsystems level, but unstable within them. In BiH, firm ethnic identity stabilizes the party system by limiting competition between blocks, leading to closure. Malleable ethnic identity in Montenegro opens competition to non-ethnic parties seeking to bridge ethnic divisions, leading to more instability. We find that party system dynamics in ethnically divided new democracies depend on identity rigidity and cleavage salience, in addition to levels of heterogeneity.


Author(s):  
Zsolt Enyedi ◽  
Fernando Casal Bértoa

The study of political parties and party systems is intimately linked to the development of modern political science. The configuration of party competition varies across time and across polities. In order to capture this variance, one needs to go beyond the analysis of individual parties and to focus on their numbers (i.e. fragmentation), their interactions (i.e. closure), the prevailing ideological patterns (i.e. polarization), and the stability of the balance of power (i.e. volatility) in all spheres of competition, including the electoral, parliamentary, and governmental arenas. Together, these factors constitute the core informal institution of modern politics: a party system. The relevant scholarship relates the stability of party systems to the degree of the institutionalization of individual parties, to various institutional factors such as electoral systems, to sociologically anchored structures such as cleavages, to economic characteristics of the polity (primarily growth), to historical legacies (for example, the type of dictatorship that preceded competitive politics) and to the length of democratic experience and to the characteristics of the time when democracy was established. The predictability of party relations has been found to influence both the stability of governments and the quality of democracy. However, still a lot is to be learned about party systems in Africa or Asia, the pre-WWII era or in regional and/or local contexts. Similarly, more research is needed regarding the role of colonialism or how party system stability affects policy-making. As far as temporal change is concerned, we are witnessing a trend towards the destabilization of party systems, but the different indicators show different dynamics. It is therefore crucial to acknowledge that party systems are complex, multifaceted phenomena.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-265
Author(s):  
Alena Klvaňová

Abstract For the past two decades, the characteristic feature of the Czech Republic and the Republic of Slovenia’s party system has been relatively invariable and closed to fundamental change. In both cases, there has been a distortion of the change and its nature which occurred around 2010, when new political entities began to emerge on the political scene. These entities have received support from a large part of the electorate. The reason for the success of the new political parties is mainly related to the dissatisfaction of the Czech and Slovenian public with the political situation and the conviction of citizens about the widespread corruption among public officials. The success of the newly formed entities caused the decline of primarily established parties. The aim of this article is to determine the effect of these changes on the party systems, and simultaneously to answer the question, to what extent both party systems are institutionalized. The answer to this question can be obtained by measuring the extend of institutionalization of party systems based on three criteria, which are incorporation of political parties in the party system, party system stability and quality of party competition.


2019 ◽  
pp. 27-49
Author(s):  
Edward Fieldhouse ◽  
Jane Green ◽  
Geoffrey Evans ◽  
Jonathan Mellon ◽  
Christopher Prosser ◽  
...  

This chapter sets out a novel theoretical approach for understanding electoral change. This approach focuses on the mechanisms and consequences of electoral shocks in the context of electoral volatility. The chapter sets out the reasons for focusing on shocks, a definition of electoral shocks, and the mechanisms through which shocks affect voting behaviour. We argue that the consequences of electoral shocks depend on how politicians respond to those shocks and compete around them, and how they are politicized in the wider media environment. The chapter explains why the gradual destabilization of the party system means that electoral shocks are having increasingly dramatic consequences.


2020 ◽  
pp. 135406882091762
Author(s):  
Endre Borbáth

Despite extensive research on party system stability, the concept is often reduced to the survival of existing parties. This article argues for introducing programmatic stability as a separate dimension and shows how the combination of party replacement and programmatic instability shapes patterns of party competition. Based on their interaction, the article distinguishes four ideal types: stable systems, systems with empty party labels, systems with ephemeral parties, and general instability. The empirical analysis relies on media data and proposes a new measure of programmatic stability to study its interaction with party replacement in fifteen European countries during the period of the economic crisis. As the article shows, the two dimensions shape the transformation of party systems in northwestern, southern, and eastern Europe. Relying on multidimensional scaling, the article analyzes in detail the cases of the United Kingdom, Romania, Ireland, and Latvia to showcase party competition under different conditions of systemic instability.


2012 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1422-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth M. Roberts

Although democratic regimes in Latin America since the early 1980s have been surprisingly durable, party systems in much of the region continue to experience very high levels of electoral instability. A critical juncture approach to institutional change suggests that variation in party system stability is related to the impact of market liberalization in the 1980s and 1990s on the programmatic alignment—or dealignment—of partisan competition. Market reforms that were adopted by conservative leaders and opposed by a major leftist rival aligned party systems programmatically, allowing societal opposition to be channeled into institutionalized forms of competition that were highly stable in the postadjustment era. By contrast, bait-and-switch reforms adopted by populist or leftist leaders were programmatically dealigning for party systems, leaving them vulnerable to highly destabilizing reactive sequences in the aftermath to the reform process—including mass social protests, the demise of historic conservative parties, and the outflanking of traditional populist or leftist parties by more radical, anti-neoliberal outsiders. The political dynamics of market-based economic adjustment thus heavily conditioned the ways in which party systems would process the postadjustment revival of populist and leftist alternatives in the region.


1980 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 387-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mogens N. Pedersen

When studying party system change over time, it is tempting to use as indicators one or several of the existing measures of fractionalization and concentration. If these measures are used to study change, they will often be misleading because of their inability to discriminate among even very different diachronic patterns. Seven indicators are tested on a hypothetical set of data, and all of them fail to reflect typical patterns of change. Thus if students of party systems want to study the general phenomenon of party system stability or change, they should preferably use other types of measures. An indicator of aggregate volatility is shown to satisfy the requirements of a good indicator of party system change.


2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 44-62
Author(s):  
Pieter Labuschagne

This article investigates new political party formation in South Africa within the broader context of voter volatility. The political party system has displayed high levels of stability, but the unrestrained and rampant formation of new political parties that contest in each election could destabilise the system. The number of entrants rose to an unprecedented 28 before the 2019 elections and contradicts the support for older, established parties in each election since 1994. In theory, the within-system stability in South Africa, with an on average 90% voter share between established parties, impedes the scope for the formation of new smaller parties. In reality, support for new parties remains low. This article explores why this does not serve as a deterrent for the formation of new parties. The article shows that despite the increasing number of new entrants, their impact on stability and consolidation in the country is negligible.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-353
Author(s):  
Rostislav Turovsky ◽  
Marina Sukhova

Abstract This article examines the differences between Russian voting at federal elections and regional legislature elections, both combined and conducted independently. The authors analyse these differences, their character and their dynamics as an important characteristic of the nationalisation of the party system. They also test hypotheses about a higher level of oppositional voting and competitiveness in subnational elections, in accordance with the theory of second-order elections, as well as the strategic nature of voting at federal elections, by contrast with expressive voting during subnational campaigns. The empirical study is based on calculating the differences in votes for leading Russian parties at subnational elections and at federal elections (simultaneous, preceding and following) from 2003, when mandatory voting on party lists was widespread among the regions, to 2019. The level of competitiveness is measured in a similar way, by calculating the effective number of parties. The study indicates a low level of autonomy of regional party systems, in many ways caused by the fact that the law made it impossible to create regional parties, and then also by the 2005 ban on creation of regional blocs. The strong connection between federal and regional elections in Russia clearly underlines the fluid and asynchronic nature of its electoral dynamics, where subnational elections typically predetermine the results of the following federal campaigns. At the same time, the formal success of the nationalisation of the party system, achieved by increasing the homogeneity of voting at the 2016 and 2018 federal elections, is not reflected by the opposing process of desynchronisation between federal and regional elections after Putin’s third-term election. There is also a clear rise in the scale of the differences between the two. At the same time, the study demonstrates the potential presence in Russia of features common to subnational elections in many countries: their greater support for the opposition and presence of affective voting. However, there is a clear exception to this trend during the period of maximum mobilisation of the loyal electorate at the subnational elections immediately following the accession of Crimea in 2014–2015, and such tendencies are generally restrained by the conditions of electoral authoritarianism.


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