scholarly journals Prediction of chronic kidney disease after orthotopic liver transplantation: development and validation of a nomogram model

2022 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Dandan Guo ◽  
Huifang Wang ◽  
Jun Liu ◽  
Hang Liu ◽  
Ming Zhang ◽  

Abstract Background We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting CKD after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Methods The retrospective data of 399 patients who underwent transplantation and were followed in our centre were collected. They were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 293) and validation set (n = 106). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed in the training set to identify predictors of CKD. According to the Cox regression analysis results, a nomogram model was developed and validated. The renal function of recipients was monitored, and the long-term survival prognosis was assessed. Results The incidence of CKD at 5 years after OLT was 25.6%. Cox regression analysis identified several predictors of post-OLT CKD, including recipient age at surgery (HR 1.036, 95% CI 1.006-1.068; p = 0.018), female sex (HR 2.867, 95% CI 1.709-4.810; p < 0.001), preoperative hypertension (HR 1.670, 95% CI 0.962-2.898; p = 0.068), preoperative eGFR (HR 0.996, 95% CI 0.991-1.001; p = 0.143), uric acid at 3 months (HR 1.002, 95% CI 1.001-1.004; p = 0.028), haemoglobin at 3 months (HR 0.970, 95% CI 0.956-0.983; p < 0.001), and average concentration of cyclosporine A at 3 months (HR 1.002, 95% CI 1.001-1.003; p < 0.001). According to these parameters, a nomogram model for predicting CKD after OLT was constructed and validated. The C-indices were 0.75 and 0.80 in the training and validation sets. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed that the CKD probabilities predicted by the nomogram agreed with the observed probabilities at 1, 3, and 5 years after OLT (p > 0.05). Renal function declined slowly year by year, and there were significant differences between patients divided by these predictors. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the survival prognosis of recipients decreased significantly with the progression of renal function. Conclusions With excellent predictive abilities, the nomogram may be a simple and reliable tool to identify patients at high risk for CKD and poor long-term prognosis after OLT.

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-29 ◽  
Iisa Lindström ◽  
Sara Protto ◽  
Niina Khan ◽  
Jussi Hernesniemi ◽  
Niko Sillanpää ◽  

BackgroundMasseter area (MA), a surrogate for sarcopenia, appears to be useful when estimating postoperative survival, but there is lack of consensus regarding the potential predictive value of sarcopenia in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients. We hypothesized that MA and density (MD) evaluated from pre-interventional CT angiography scans predict postinterventional survival in patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy (MT).Materials and methods312 patients treated with MT for acute occlusions of the internal carotid artery (ICA) or the M1 segment of the middle cerebral artery (M1-MCA) between 2013 and 2018. Median follow-up was 27.4 months (range 0–70.4). Binary logistic (alive at 3 months, OR <1) and Cox regression analyses were used to study the effect of MA and MD averages (MAavg and MDavg) on survival.ResultsIn Kaplan–Meier analysis, there was a significant inverse relationship with both MDavg and MAavg and mortality (MDavg P<0.001, MAavg P=0.002). Long-term mortality was 19.6% (n=61) and 3-month mortality 12.2% (n=38). In multivariable logistic regression analysis at 3 months, per 1-SD increase MDavg (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.92, P=0.018:) and MAavg (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.91, P=0.019) were the independent predictors associated with lower mortality. In Cox regression analysis, MDavg and MAavg were not associated with long-term survival.ConclusionsIn acute ischemic stroke patients, MDavg and MAavg are independent predictors of 3-month survival after MT of the ICA or M1-MCA. A 1-SD increase in MDavg and MAavg was associated with a 39%–43% decrease in the probability of death during the first 3 months after MT.

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
G Boriani ◽  
M Proietti ◽  
C Laroche ◽  
E Fantecchi ◽  
M Popescu ◽  

Abstract Background Several equations exist to estimate creatinine clearance according to serum creatinine values and baseline characteristics. The CKD-EPI equation is usually recommended in general population, while the Cockroft-Gault (CG) equation has been used in atrial fibrillation (AF) clinical trials. Purpose To perform a comparison between 6 different equations for evaluation of renal function in AF patients. Methods We calculated CKD-EPI, CG, body surface area adjusted CG (CG BSA), MDRD, BIS1 and FAS equations in AF patients enrolled in the EORP-AF Long-Term General Registry. Outcomes at 1-year follow-up were considered. Results Renal equations were calculated in 7725 patients. According to CKD-EPI mean (SD) creatinine clearance was 69.14 (21.06) mL/min/1.73 m2. Taking CKD-EPI as reference, the MDRD equation showed the highest agreement (weighted kappa [95% CI]: 0.843 [0.833–0.852]), while CK showed the lowest agreement (weighted kappa [95% CI]: 0.593 [0.580–0.606]. The remaining equations showed moderate agreement. Cox regression analysis showed that all equations were inversely associated with all major adverse outcomes [Figure]. The CKD-EPI equation showed modest predictive ability for the three outcomes (c-statistics: any TE/ACS/CV Death: 0.63379; CV Death: 0.68512; All-Cause Death: 0.67183), with all other equations reporting higher c-statistics (delta-c statistic ranging from +0.01497 for FAS equation for any TE/ACS/CV Death to +0.04547 for CG BSA for all-cause death) for all outcomes (all p<0.0001, for any equation for any outcome). Compared to CKD-EPI, all the other equations showed an improvement in prediction of outcomes, according to IDI and NRI, with the exception of FAS equation for any TE/ACS/CV Death. CG BSA equation showed the greatest improvement in prediction of outcomes compared to CKD-EPI (relative IDI: 21.9% for any TE/ACS/CV Death, 28.8% for CV Death, 34.4% for All-Cause Death). Cox Regression Analysis Conclusions Compared to CKD-EPI equation, all the other equations for creatine clearance has stronger associations with adverse outcomes, with the CG BSA reporting the higher yield for all the outcomes considered.

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Guang-Chuan Mu ◽  
Yuan Huang ◽  
Zhi-Ming Liu ◽  
Xiang-Hua Wu ◽  
Xin-Gan Qin ◽  

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic factors and establish a nomogram to predict the long-term survival of gastric cancer patients. Methods The clinicopathological data of 421 gastric cancer patients, who were treated with radical D2 lymphadenectomy by the same surgical team between January 2009 and March 2017, were collected. The analysis of long-term survival was performed using Cox regression analysis. Based on the multivariate analysis results, a prognostic nomogram was formulated to predict the 5-year survival rate probability. Results In the present study, the total overall 3-year and 5-year survival rates were 58.7 and 45.8%, respectively. The results of the univariate Cox regression analysis revealed that tumor staging, tumor location, Borrmann type, the number of lymph nodes dissected, the number of lymph node metastases, positive lymph nodes ratio, lymphocyte count, serum albumin, CEA, CA153, CA199, BMI, tumor size, nerve invasion, and vascular invasion were prognostic factors for gastric cancer (all, P < 0.05). However, merely tumor staging, tumor location, positive lymph node ratio, CA199, BMI, tumor size, nerve invasion, and vascular invasion were independent risk factors, based on the results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis (all, P < 0.05). The nomogram based on eight independent prognostic factors revealed a well-degree of differentiation with a concordance index of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72–0.79, P < 0.001), which was better than the AJCC-7 staging system (concordance index = 0.68). Conclusion The present study established a nomogram based on eight independent prognostic factors to predict long-term survival in gastric cancer patients. The nomogram would be beneficial for more accurately predicting the prognosis of gastric cancer, and provide important basis for making individualized treatment plans following surgery.

2020 ◽  
Wenxing Cui ◽  
Shunnan Ge ◽  
Yingwu Shi ◽  
Xun Wu ◽  
Jianing Luo ◽  

Abstract Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify the relationship between coagulopathy during the perioperative period (before the operation and on the first day after the operation) and the long-term survival of TBI patients undergoing surgery, as well as to explore the predisposing risk factors that may cause perioperative coagulopathy.Methods: This retrospective study included 447 TBI patients who underwent surgery from January 1, 2015 to April 25, 2019. Clinical parameters, including patient demographic characteristics, biochemical tests, perioperative coagulation function tests (before the operation and on the first day after the operation) and intraoperative factors were collected. Log-rank univariate analysis and Cox regression models were conducted to assess the relationship between perioperative coagulopathy and the long-term survival of TBI patients. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the underlying risk factors for perioperative coagulopathy.Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified age, AIS(head) = 5, GCS ≤ 8, systolic pressure at admission < 90 mmHg and postoperative coagulopathy (all P < 0.05) as independent risk factors for survival following TBI; we were the first to identify postoperative coagulopathy as an independent risk factor. According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, for the first time, abnormal ALT and RBC at admission, preoperative coagulopathy, infusion of colloidal solution > 1100 mL and intraoperative bleeding > 950 mL (all P < 0.005) were identified as independent risk factors for postoperative coagulation following surgery after TBI.Conclusions: Those who suffered from postoperative coagulopathy due to TBI had a higher hazard for poor prognosis than those who did not. Closer attention should be paid to postoperative coagulopathy and more emphasis should be placed on managing the underlying risk factors.

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 305
Chung-Min Kang ◽  
Saemi Seong ◽  
Je Seon Song ◽  
Yooseok Shin

The use of hydraulic silicate cements (HSCs) for vital pulp therapy has been found to release calcium and hydroxyl ions promoting pulp tissue healing and mineralized tissue formation. The present study investigated whether HSCs such as mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA) affect their biological and antimicrobial properties when used as long-term pulp protection materials. The effect of variables on treatment outcomes of three HSCs (ProRoot MTA, OrthoMTA, and RetroMTA) was evaluated clinically and radiographically over a 48–78 month follow-up period. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier survival curves. Fisher’s exact test and Cox regression analysis were used to determine hazard ratios of clinical variables. The overall success rate of MTA partial pulpotomy was 89.3%; Cumulative success rates of the three HSCs were not statistically different when analyzed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. None of the investigated clinical variables affected success rates significantly. These HSCs showed favorable biocompatibility and antimicrobial properties in partial pulpotomy of permanent teeth in long-term follow-up, with no statistical differences between clinical factors.

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 153303382110279
Qinping Guo ◽  
Yinquan Wang ◽  
Jie An ◽  
Siben Wang ◽  
Xiushan Dong ◽  

Background: The aim of our study was to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC). Methods: GSRC patients from 2004 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to the training and validation sets. Multivariate Cox regression analyses screened for OS and CSS independent risk factors and nomograms were constructed. Results: A total of 7,149 eligible GSRC patients were identified, including 4,766 in the training set and 2,383 in the validation set. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that gender, marital status, race, AJCC stage, TNM stage, surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for both OS and CSS. Based on the results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis, prognostic nomograms were constructed for OS and CSS. In the training set, the C-index was 0.754 (95% CI = 0.746-0.762) for the OS nomogram and 0.762 (95% CI: 0.753-0.771) for the CSS nomogram. In the internal validation, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.758 (95% CI: 0.746-0.770), while the C-index for the CSS nomogram was 0.762 (95% CI: 0.749-0.775). Compared with TNM stage and SEER stage, the nomogram had better predictive ability. In addition, the calibration curves also showed good consistency between the predicted and actual 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS. Conclusion: The nomogram can effectively predict OS and CSS in patients with GSRC, which may help clinicians to personalize prognostic assessments and clinical decisions.

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_G) ◽  
Marrco Vitolo ◽  
Vincenzo Livio Malavasi ◽  
Marco Proietti ◽  
Igor Diemberger ◽  
Laurent Fauchier ◽  

Abstract Aims Cardiac troponins (cTn) have been reported to be predictors for adverse outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF), patients, but their actual use is still unclear. To assess the factors associated with cTn testing in routine clinical practice and to evaluate the association of elevated levels of cTn with adverse outcomes in a large contemporary cohort of European AF patients. Methods and results Patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry were stratified into three groups according to cTn levels as (i) cTn not tested, (ii) cTn in range (≤99th percentile), and (iii) cTn elevated (&gt;99th percentile). The composite outcome of any thromboembolism/any acute coronary syndrome (ACS)/cardiovascular (CV) death, defined as major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause death were the main endpoints. 10 445 (94.1%) AF patients were included in this analysis [median age 71 years, interquartile range (IQR): 63–77; males 59.7%]. cTn were tested in 2834 (27.1%). Overall, cTn was elevated in 904 (8.7%) and in-range in 1930 (18.5%) patients. Patients in whom cTn was tested tended to be younger (P &lt; 0.001) and more frequently presenting with first detected AF and atypical AF-related symptoms (i.e. chest pain, dyspnoea, or syncope) (P &lt; 0.001). On multivariable logistic regression analysis, female sex, in-hospital enrollment, first-detected AF, CV risk factors, history of coronary artery disease (CAD), and atypical AF symptoms were independently associated with cTn testing. After a median follow-up of 730 days (IQR: 692–749), 957 (9.7%) composite endpoints occurred while all-cause death was 9.5%. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed a higher cumulative risk for both outcomes in patients with elevated cTn levels (Figure) (Log Rank tests, P &lt; 0.001). On adjusted Cox regression analysis, elevated levels of cTn were independently associated with a higher risk for MACE [hazard ratio (HR): 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.40–2.16] and all-cause death (HR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.21–1.74). Elevated levels of cTn were independently associated with a higher occurrence of MACE, all-cause death, any ACS, CV death and hospital readmission even after the exclusion of patients with history of CAD, diagnosis of ACS at discharge, those who underwent coronary revascularization during the admission and/or who were treated with oral anticoagulants plus antiplatelet therapy. Conclusions Elevated cTn levels were independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and adverse CV events, even after exclusion of CAD patients. Clinical factors that might enhance the need to rule out CAD were associated with cTn testing.

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 4727
Gian Piero Guerrini ◽  
Massimiliano Berretta ◽  
Giovanni Guaraldi ◽  
Paolo Magistri ◽  
Giuseppe Esposito ◽  

Background: HIV-infected patients now have long life expectation since the introduction of the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Liver diseases, especially cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), currently represent a leading cause of death in this setting of patients. Aim: To address the results of liver transplantation (LT) for HCC in HIV-infected patients. Methods: All patients with and without HIV infection who underwent LT for HCC (n = 420) between 2001 and 2021 in our center were analyzed with the intent of comparing graft and patient survival. Cox regression analysis was used to determine prognostic survival factors and logistic regression to determine the predictor factors of post-LT recurrence. Results: Among 1010 LT, 32 were HIV-infected recipients. With an average follow-up of 62 ± 51 months, 5-year overall survival in LT recipients with and without HIV-infection was 71.6% and 69.9%, respectively (p = ns), whereas 5-year graft survival in HIV-infected and HIV-non infected was 68.3% and 68.2%, respectively (p = ns). The independent predictive factor of survival in the study group was: HCV infection (HR 1.83, p = 0.024). There were no significant differences in the pathological characteristics of HCC between the two groups. The logistic regression analysis of the study population demonstrated that microvascular invasion (HR 5.18, p< 0.001), HCC diameter (HR 1.16, p = 0.028), and number of HCC nodules (HR 1.26, p = 0.003) were predictors of recurrence post-LT. Conclusion: Our study shows that HIV patients undergoing LT for HCC have comparable results in terms of post-LT survival. Excellent results can be achieved for HIV-infected patients with HCC, as long as a strategy of close surveillance and precise treatment of the tumor is adopted while on the waiting list.

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
M I Gonzalez Del Hoyo ◽  
G Cediel ◽  
A Carrasquer ◽  
G Bonet ◽  
K Vasquez-Nunez ◽  

Abstract Background CHA2DS2-VASc score has been used as a surrogate marker for predicting outcomes beyond thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Likewise, cardiac troponin I (cTnI) is a predictor of mortality in AF. Purpose This study aimed to investigate the association of cTnI and CHA2DS2-VASc score with long-term prognosis in patients admitted to the emergency department with AF. Methods A retrospective cohort study conducted between January 2012 and December 2013, enrolling patients admitted to the emergency department with AF and having documented cTnI measurements. CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated. Primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality, readmission for heart failure (HF), readmission for myocardial infarction (MI) and the composite end point of major adverse cardiac events defined as death, readmission for HF or readmission for MI (MACE). Results A total of 578 patients with AF were studied, of whom 252 patients had elevated levels of cTnI (43.6%) and 334 patients had CHA2DS2-VASc score >3 (57.8%). Patients with elevated cTnI tended to be oldercompared with those who did not have cTnI elevation and were more frequently comorbid and of higher ischemic risk, including hypertension, prior MI, prior HF, chronic renal failure and peripheral artery disease. The overall median CHA2DS2-VASc score was higher in those with cTnI elevation compared to those patients elevated cTnI levels (4.2 vs 3.3 points, p<0.001). Main diagnoses at hospital discharge were tachyarrhythmia 30.3%, followed by heart failure 17.7%, respiratory infections 9.5% and acute coronary syndrome 7.3%. At 5-year follow-up, all-cause death was significantly higher for patients with cTnI elevation compared with those who did not have cTnI elevation (56.4% vs. 27%; logrank test p<0.001). Specifically, for readmissions for HF and readmissions for MI there were no differences in between patients with or without cTnI elevation. In addition, MACE was reached in 165 patients (65.5%) with cTnI elevation, compare to 126 patients (38.7%) without cTnI elevation (p<0.001). On multivariable Cox regression analysis, cTnI elevation was an independent predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio, 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24–2.26, p=0.001) and of MACE (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.15–1.88; P=0.002), but it did not reach statistical significance for readmissions for MI and readmissions for HF. CHA2DS2-VASc score was a predictor on univariate Cox regression analysis for each endpoint, but it did not reach significance on multivariable Cox regression analysis for any endpoint. Conclusions cTnI is independently associated with long-term all-cause mortality in patients attending the emergency department with AF. cTnI compared to CHA2DS2-VASc score is thus a biomarker with predictive capacity for mortality in late follow-up, conferring utility in the risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation.

Angiology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-77 ◽  
Adnan Kaya ◽  
Muhammed Keskin ◽  
Mustafa Adem Tatlisu ◽  
Osman Kayapinar

We evaluated the effect of serum potassium (K) deviation on in-hospital and long-term clinical outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction who were normokalemic at admission. A total of 2773 patients with an admission serum K level of 3.5 to 4.5 mEq/L were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were categorized into 3 groups according to their K deviation: normokalemia-to-hypokalemia, normokalemia-to-normokalemia, and normokalemia-to-hyperkalemia. In-hospital mortality, long-term mortality, and ventricular arrhythmias rates were compared among the groups. In a hierarchical multivariable regression analysis, the in-hospital mortality risk was higher in normokalemia-to-hypokalemia (odds ratio [OR] 3.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.72-6.82) and normokalemia-to-hyperkalemia groups (OR 2.81; 95% CI, 1.93-4.48) compared with the normokalemia-to-normokalemia group. In a Cox regression analysis, long-term mortality risk was also higher in normokalemia-to-hypokalemia (hazard ratio [HR] 3.78; 95% CI, 2.07-7.17) and normokalemia-to-hyperkalemia groups (HR, 2.97; 95% CI, 2.10-4.19) compared with the normokalemia-to-normokalemia group. Ventricular arrhythmia risk was also higher in normokalemia-to-hypokalemia group (OR 2.98; 95% CI, 1.41-5.75) compared with normokalemia-to-normokalemia group. The current study showed an increased in-hospital ventricular arrhythmia and mortality and long-term mortality rates with the deviation of serum K levels from normal ranges.

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