Climate-proofing a malaria eradication strategy

AbstractTwo recent initiatives, the World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group on Malaria Eradication and the Lancet Commission on Malaria Eradication, have assessed the feasibility of achieving global malaria eradication and proposed strategies to achieve it. Both reports rely on a climate-driven model of malaria transmission to conclude that long-term trends in climate will assist eradication efforts overall and, consequently, neither prioritize strategies to manage the effects of climate variability and change on malaria programming. This review discusses the pathways via which climate affects malaria and reviews the suitability of climate-driven models of malaria transmission to inform long-term strategies such as an eradication programme. Climate can influence malaria directly, through transmission dynamics, or indirectly, through myriad pathways including the many socioeconomic factors that underpin malaria risk. These indirect effects are largely unpredictable and so are not included in climate-driven disease models. Such models have been effective at predicting transmission from weeks to months ahead. However, due to several well-documented limitations, climate projections cannot accurately predict the medium- or long-term effects of climate change on malaria, especially on local scales. Long-term climate trends are shifting disease patterns, but climate shocks (extreme weather and climate events) and variability from sub-seasonal to decadal timeframes have a much greater influence than trends and are also more easily integrated into control programmes. In light of these conclusions, a pragmatic approach is proposed to assessing and managing the effects of climate variability and change on long-term malaria risk and on programmes to control, eliminate and ultimately eradicate the disease. A range of practical measures are proposed to climate-proof a malaria eradication strategy, which can be implemented today and will ensure that climate variability and change do not derail progress towards eradication.

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CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: FARMER PERCEPTIONS AND UNDERSTANDING OF INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY IN RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RISK IN SEMI-ARID KENYA

Experimental Agriculture ◽

10.1017/s0014479710000918 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 267-291 ◽

Cited By ~ 91

Author(s):

K. P. C. RAO ◽

W. G. NDEGWA ◽

K. KIZITO ◽

A. OYOO

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Crop Production ◽

Smallholder Farmers ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

General Tendency ◽

Climate Variability And Change ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

Probabilistic Nature ◽

Semi Arid

SUMMARYThis study examines farmers’ perceptions of short- and long-term variability in climate, their ability to discern trends in climate and how the perceived trends converge with actual weather observations in five districts of Eastern Province in Kenya where the climate is semi-arid with high intra- and inter-annual variability in rainfall. Field surveys to elicit farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change were conducted in Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Mwingi and Mutomo districts. Long-term rainfall records from five meteorological stations within a 10 km radius from the survey locations were obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department and were analysed to compare with farmers’ observations. Farmers’ responses indicate that they are well aware of the general climate in their location, its variability, the probabilistic nature of the variability and the impacts of this variability on crop production. However, their ability to synthesize the knowledge they have gained from their observations and discern long-term trends in the probabilistic distribution of seasonal conditions is more subjective, mainly due to the compounding interactions between climate and other factors such as soil fertility, soil water and land use change that determine the climate's overall influence on crop productivity. There is a general tendency among the farmers to give greater weight to negative impacts leading to higher risk perception. In relation to long-term changes in the climate, farmer observations in our study that rainfall patterns are changing corroborated well with reported perceptions from other places across the African continent but were not supported by the observed trends in rainfall data from the five study locations. The main implication of our findings is the need to be aware of and account for the risk during the development and promotion of technologies involving significant investments by smallholder farmers and exercise caution in interpreting farmers’ perceptions about long-term climate variability and change.

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A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos4040365 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 365-382 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Mustapha El-Maayar ◽

Manfred Lange

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Yield Response ◽

Climate Variability And Change

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Anticipatory adaptation and the role of decadal climate information in rural African livelihood systems

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ◽

10.1108/ijccsm-03-2015-0029 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 236-252 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Admire M. Nyamwanza ◽

Mark New

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Adaptation Planning ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Information ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

Content Type ◽

Livelihood Systems ◽

Decadal Climate

Purpose – This study aims to explore the utility of anticipatory adaptation to climate variability and related livelihood sensitivities in rural African contexts using the case of Mbire district situated in the mid-Zambezi valley region of Zimbabwe. The provision of decadal climate information (up to ten years), as part of an anticipatory adaptation package, is at the centre of analysis. Design/methodology/approach – The study used semi-structured and key informant interviews, with a total of 45 semi-structured interviews being conducted with randomly selected long-term communal farmers in the case study area. Whilst data from semi-structured interviews was arranged in Microsoft Excel, thematic analysis was used in analyzing all data. Findings – Anticipatory adaptation and decadal climate projections are shown to potentially enhance flexibility in adaptation planning vis- à-vis responding to climate variability and other challenges, as well as reduce chances of maladaptation in responding to climate challenges in the context of multiple and reinforcing stresses and shocks. Originality/value – Anticipatory adaptation, with its three main pillars of future analysis, flexibility of strategies and proactive action, is emerging as key in assisting adaptation planning, the harnessing of opportunities and decision-making vis- à-vis responding to climate uncertainties and related livelihood sensitivities. Yet there have not been much empirically grounded analyses in understanding the role of anticipatory adaptation in rural Africa. This study therefore adds to evidence-based analyses towards understanding the role and utility of anticipatory adaptation in local communities in Africa.

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Tropical Cyclone Footprints in Long-Term Mean State and Multiscale Climate Variability in the Western North Pacific as Seen in the JRA-55 Reanalysis

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-20-0887.1 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-46

Author(s):

Sho Arakane ◽

Huang-Hsiung Hsu

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

North Pacific ◽

Western North Pacific ◽

Large Scale ◽

Lower Troposphere ◽

Monsoon Trough ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Anticyclonic Circulation ◽

Mean State

AbstractThe monsoon trough and subtropical high have long been acknowledged to exert a substantial modulating effect on the genesis and development of TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP). However, the potential upscaling effect of TCs on large-scale circulation remains poorly understood. This study revealed the considerable contributions of TCs to the climate mean state and variability in the WNP between 1958 and 2019, characterized by a strengthened monsoon trough and weakened subtropical anticyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere, enhanced anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere, and warming throughout the troposphere. TCs constituted distinct footprints in the long-term mean states of the WNP summer monsoon, and their contributions increased intraseasonal and interannual variance by 50%–70%. The interdecadal variations and long-term trends in intraseasonal variance were mainly due to the year-to-year fluctuations in TC activity. The size of TC footprints was positively correlated with the magnitude of TC activity.Our findings suggest that the full understanding of climate variability and changes cannot be achieved simply on the basis of low-frequency, large-scale circulations. Rather, TCs must be regarded as a crucial component in the climate system, and their interactions with large-scale circulations require thorough exploration. The long-term dataset created in this study provides an opportunity to study the interaction between TCs and TC-free large-scale circulations to advance our understanding of climate variability in the WNP. Our findings also indicate that realistic climate projections must involve the accurate simulations of TCs.

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Long-Term Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11111172 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 1172

Author(s):

M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro ◽

Pedro Ribera

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Special Issue ◽

Past Climate ◽

The Past ◽

Climate Evolution ◽

The Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is an area where prediction at different timescales (subseasonal to decadal or even longer) is challenging. In order to help constrain future projections, the study of past climate is crucial. By improving our knowledge about the past and current climate, our confidence in understanding the future climate will be improved. In this Special Issue, information about long-term climate variability in the Mediterranean region is assessed, including in particular historical climatology and model applications to assess past climate variability, present climate evolution, and future climate projections. The seven articles included in this Special Issue explore observations, proxies, re-analyses, and models for assessing the main characteristics, processes, and variability of the Mediterranean climate. The temporal range of these articles not only covers a wide period going from the present day to as far back as 25 centuries into the past but also covers projections of future climate over the next century.

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