scholarly journals Geriatric screening, fall characteristics and 3- and 12 months adverse outcomes in older patients visiting the emergency department with a fall

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura C. Blomaard ◽  
Simon P. Mooijaart ◽  
Leonie J. van Meer ◽  
Julia Leander ◽  
Jacinta A. Lucke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Geriatric Screening ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Screening Result

Abstract Background Falls in older Emergency Department (ED) patients may indicate underlying frailty. Geriatric follow-up might help improve outcomes in addition to managing the direct cause and consequence of the fall. We aimed to study whether fall characteristics and the result of geriatric screening in the ED are independently related to adverse outcomes in older patients with fall-related ED visits. Methods This was a secondary analysis of the observational multicenter Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) study, of which a subset of patients aged ≥70 years with fall-related ED visits were prospectively included in EDs of two Dutch hospitals. Fall characteristics (cause and location) were retrospectively collected. The APOP-screener was used as a geriatric screening tool. The outcome was 3- and 12-months functional decline and mortality. We assessed to what extent fall characteristics and the geriatric screening result were independent predictors of the outcome, using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results We included 393 patients (median age 80 (IQR 76–86) years) of whom 23.0% were high risk according to screening. The cause of the fall was extrinsic (49.6%), intrinsic (29.3%), unexplained (6.4%) or missing (14.8%). A high risk geriatric screening result was related to increased risk of adverse outcomes (3-months adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.27 (1.29–3.98), 12-months AOR 2.20 (1.25–3.89)). Independent of geriatric screening result, an intrinsic cause of the fall increased the risk of 3-months adverse outcomes (AOR 1.92 (1.13–3.26)) and a fall indoors increased the risk of 3-months (AOR 2.14 (1.22–3.74)) and 12-months adverse outcomes (AOR 1.78 (1.03–3.10)). Conclusions A high risk geriatric screening result and fall characteristics were both independently associated with adverse outcomes in older ED patients, suggesting that information on both should be evaluated to guide follow-up geriatric assessment and interventions in clinical care.

scholarly journals Implementation of the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screening program in routine emergency department care

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura C. Blomaard ◽  
Bas de Groot ◽  
Jacinta A. Lucke ◽  
Jelle de Gelder ◽  
Anja M. Booijen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Admission Rate ◽  
Older Patient ◽  
Hospital Admission Rate ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Patients

Abstract Objective The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implementation of the acutely presenting older patient (APOP) screening program for older patients in routine emergency department (ED) care shortly after implementation. Methods We conducted an implementation study with before-after design, using the plan-do-study-act (PDSA) model for quality improvement, in the ED of a Dutch academic hospital. All consecutive patients ≥ 70 years during 2 months before and after implementation were included. The APOP program comprises screening for risk of functional decline, mortality and cognitive impairment, targeted interventions for high-risk patients and education of professionals. Outcome measures were compliance with interventions and impact on ED process, length of stay (LOS) and hospital admission rate. Results Two comparable groups of patients (median age 77 years) were included before (n = 920) and after (n = 953) implementation. After implementation 560 (59%) patients were screened of which 190 (34%) were high-risk patients. Some of the program interventions for high-risk patients in the ED were adhered to, some were not. More hospitalized patients received comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) after implementation (21% before vs. 31% after; p = 0.002). In 89% of high-risk patients who were discharged to home, telephone follow-up was initiated. Implementation did not influence median ED LOS (202 min before vs. 196 min after; p = 0.152) or hospital admission rate (40% before vs. 39% after; p = 0.410). Conclusion Implementation of the APOP screening program in routine ED care did not negatively impact the ED process and resulted in an increase of CGA and telephone follow-up in older patients. Future studies should investigate whether sustainable changes in management and patient outcomes occur after more PDSA cycles.

scholarly journals Older Patients’ Perspectives on Factors Contributing to Frequent Visits to the Emergency Department: A Qualitative Interview Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisy Kolk ◽  
Anton F. Kruiswijk ◽  
Janet L. MacNeil-Vroomen ◽  
Milan L. Ridderikhof ◽  
Bianca M. Buurman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Post Discharge ◽  
Qualitative Interview Study ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background: Older patients are at high risk of unplanned revisits to the emergency department (ED) because of their medical complexity. To reduce the number of ED visits, we need more knowledge about the patient-level, environmental, and healthcare factors involved. The aim of this study was to collect older patients’ perspectives and experiences before and after an ED visit, and to identify factors that possibly contribute to frequent ED revisits.Methods: We performed semi-structured interviews with older patients who frequently visited the ED and were discharged home after an acute visit. Patients were enrolled in the ED of a university medical centre using purposive sampling to achieve maximum variation in heterogeneity. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded independently by two researchers. Theoretical analysis was used to identify recurring patterns and themes in the data. Interviews were conducted until thematic saturation was reached.Results: In-depth interviews were completed with 13 older patients. Three main themes emerged: 1) medical events leading to feelings of crisis, 2) patients’ untreated health problems, and 3) persistent problems in health and daily functioning post discharge. Participants identified problems before and after their ED visit that possibly contributed to further ED visits. These problems included increasing symptoms leading to feelings of crisis, the relationship with the general practitioner, incomplete discharge information at the ED, and inadequate follow-up and lack of recovery after an ED visit.Conclusions: This qualitative study identified multiple factors that may contribute to frequent ED visits among older patients. Older patients in need of acute care might benefit from hospital-at-home interventions, or acute care provided by geriatric emergency teams in the primary care setting. Identifying frailty in the ED is needed to improve discharge communication and adequate follow-up is needed to improve recovery after an acute ED visit.

Abstract P146: Depression Predicts Increased Healthcare Utilization and Death Among Community Patients with Heart Failure

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda R Moraska ◽  
Alanna M Chamberlain ◽  
Nilay D Shah ◽  
Kristin S Vickers ◽  
Shannon M Dunlay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Healthcare Utilization ◽  
Severe Depression ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Severity Of Depression ◽  
Ed Visits

Background: The increasing prevalence of heart failure (HF) and high associated costs has spurred investigation of factors related to adverse outcomes in these patients. Reports to date present discrepant evidence regarding the link between depression and HF outcomes, and only scarce data related to healthcare utilization in the form of emergency department (ED) visits are available. Purpose: To evaluate the relationship of depression with healthcare utilization and death among HF patients in the community. Methods: Residents of Olmsted, Dodge, and Fillmore, MN counties with HF were prospectively recruited between October 2007 and December 2010, and completed a 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) for depression categorized as: none-minimal (PHQ-9 score 0-4), mild (5-9), or moderate-severe (≥10). Anderson-Gill models were used to determine if depression predicted hospitalizations and ED visits while proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratios for death. Results: Among 411 HF patients (mean age 73±13, 58% male), 15% had moderate-severe depression, 27% mild, and 58% none-minimal. Over a mean follow-up of 1.5 years, 613 hospitalizations, 786 ED visits, and 75 deaths occurred. The risk of all adverse outcomes increased stepwise with increasing severity of depression (Table). After adjustment for key clinical characteristics, moderate-severe depression was associated with nearly a 2-fold increased risk of hospitalization and ED visits, and almost a 4-fold increased risk of death. These results are independent of coexisting comorbidities. Conclusions: Depression is frequent among HF patients in the community and independently predicts a significant increase in the use of healthcare resources and mortality. Greater attention to the recognition and management of depression in HF may improve clinical outcomes and decrease healthcare utilization and expenditures in these patients. Hazard Ratios (95%CI) for Hospitalizations and All-Cause Mortality by Severity of Depression None-Minimal Mild Moderate-Severe P for trend Hospitalizations Crude 1.00 (ref) 1.23 (0.91-1.66) 2.01 (1.39-2.89) <0.001 Fully-Adjusted * 1.00 (ref) 1.15 (0.86-1.54) 1.93 (1.37-2.71) 0.001 Emergency Department Visits Crude 1.00 (ref) 1.42 (1.03-1.96) 1.99 (1.42-2.79) <0.001 Fully-Adjusted * 1.00 (ref) 1.39 (1.00-1.93) 1.98 (1.40-2.79) <0.001 All-Cause Mortality Crude 1.00 (ref) 1.53 (0.87-2.68) 3.33 (1.95-5.70) <0.001 Fully-Adjusted * 1.00 (ref) 1.55 (0.88-2.74) 3.84 (2.21-6.68) <0.001 * Adjusted for age, sex, and Charlson comorbidity index

scholarly journals The effect of a telephone follow-up call for older patients, discharged home from the emergency department on health-related outcomes: a systematic review of controlled studies

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Merel van Loon-van Gaalen ◽  
Britt van Winsen ◽  
M. Christien van der Linden ◽  
Jacobijn Gussekloo ◽  
Roos C. van der Mast
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Transitional Care ◽  
Intervention Group ◽  
Living Environment ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Health Related

Abstract Background Older patients discharged from the emergency department (ED) are at increased risk for adverse outcomes. Transitional care programs offer close surveillance after discharge, but are costly. Telephone follow-up (TFU) may be a low-cost and feasible alternative for transitional care programs, but its effects on health-related outcomes are not clear. Aim We systematically reviewed the literature to evaluate the effects of TFU by health care professionals after ED discharge to an unassisted living environment on health-related outcomes in older patients compared to controls. Methods We conducted a multiple electronic database search up until December 2019 for controlled studies examining the effects of TFU by health care professionals for patients aged ≥65 years, discharged to an unassisted living environment from a hospital ED. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and risk of bias. Results Of the 748 citations, two randomized controlled trials (including a total of 2120 patients) met review selection criteria. In both studies, intervention group patients received a scripted telephone intervention from a trained nurse and control patients received a patient satisfaction survey telephone call or usual care. No demonstrable benefits of TFU were found on ED return visits, hospitalization, acquisition of prescribed medication, and compliance with follow-up appointments. However, many eligible patients were not included, because they were not reached or refused to participate. Conclusions No benefits of a scripted TFU call from a nurse were found on health services utilization and discharge plan adherence by older patients after ED discharge. As the number of high-quality studies was limited, more research is needed to determine the effect and feasibility of TFU in different older populations. PROSPERO registration number CRD42019141403.

scholarly journals Older patients’ perspectives on factors contributing to frequent visits to the emergency department: a qualitative interview study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisy Kolk ◽  
Anton F. Kruiswijk ◽  
Janet L. MacNeil-Vroomen ◽  
Milan L. Ridderikhof ◽  
Bianca M. Buurman
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Qualitative Description ◽  
Post Discharge ◽  
Individual Interviews ◽  
Qualitative Interview Study ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Ed Visits

Abstract Background Older patients are at high risk of unplanned revisits to the emergency department (ED) because of their medical complexity. To reduce the number of ED visits, we need more knowledge about the patient-level, environmental, and healthcare factors involved. The aim of this study was to describe older patients’ perspectives and experiences before and after an ED visit, and to identify factors that possibly contribute to frequent ED revisits. Methods This was a qualitative description study. We performed semi-structured individual interviews with older patients who frequently visited the ED and were discharged home after an acute visit. Patients were enrolled in the ED of a university medical centre using purposive sampling. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded independently by two researchers. Theoretical analysis was used to identify recurring patterns and themes in the data. Interviews were conducted until thematic saturation was reached. Results In-depth interviews were completed with 13 older patients. Three main themes emerged: 1) medical events leading to feelings of crisis, 2) patients’ untreated health problems, and 3) persistent problems in health and daily functioning post discharge. Participants identified problems before and after their ED visit that possibly contributed to further ED visits. These problems included increasing symptoms leading to feelings of crisis, the relationship with the general practitioner, incomplete discharge information at the ED, and inadequate follow-up and lack of recovery after an ED visit. Conclusions This qualitative study identified multiple factors that may contribute to frequent ED visits among older patients. Older patients in need of acute care might benefit from hospital-at-home interventions, or acute care provided by geriatric emergency teams in the primary care setting. Identifying frailty in the ED is needed to improve discharge communication and adequate follow-up is needed to improve recovery after an acute ED visit.

Abstract P117: Frailty and Outcomes among Heart Failure Patients in the Community

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheila M McNallan ◽  
Shannon M Dunlay ◽  
Mandeep Singh ◽  
Alanna M Chamberlain ◽  
Margaret M Redfield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Physical Component Score ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Ed Visits

Objective: To determine among community heart failure (HF) patients whether frailty is associated with an increased risk of hospitalization, emergency department (ED) visits and death, independently of comorbidities. Background: Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes in some populations; however the prognostic value of frailty among HF patients is not fully documented, particularly for healthcare utilization. Methods: Olmsted, Dodge and Fillmore County residents with HF between 10/2007 and 12/2010 were prospectively recruited to undergo frailty assessment. Frailty was defined as 3 or more of the following: unintentional weight loss >10 lbs. in 1 year, physical exhaustion, weak grip strength, and slowness and low activity measured by the SF-12 physical component score. Intermediate frailty was defined as having 1-2 components. To account for repeated events, Anderson-Gill modeling was used to determine if frailty predicted hospitalization or ED visits. Cox proportional hazards regression examined associations between frailty and death. Results: Among 409 patients (mean age 73±13, 58% male), 19% were frail and 55% had intermediate frailty. Within one year, 449 hospitalizations, 523 ED visits and 34 deaths occurred. There was a positive graded association between frailty and hospitalization and ED visits (Table). After adjustment for age, sex, ejection fraction and comorbidity, frailty was associated with an 80% increased risk of hospitalization and a 60% increased risk of ED visits. Frailty was also associated with more than a 2-fold increased risk of death after adjustment. Conclusion: In the community, frailty is prevalent and is a strong and independent predictor of hospitalizations, ED visits and death among HF patients. As it is independent from coexisting comorbidities, frailty defines new avenues for intervention and should be formally assessed clinically. Hazard Ratios (95% CI) for Hospitalizations, Emergency Department Visits and Death by Frailty Status Not Frail Intermediate Frail Frail P for trend Hospitalization Crude 1.00 1.46 (1.05-2.02) 2.15 (1.45-3.19) <0.001 Fully-adjusted 1.00 1.29 (0.94-1.77) 1.82 (1.22-2.73) 0.005 Emergency Department Visits Crude 1.00 1.59 (1.14-2.21) 1.88 (1.22-2.90) 0.002 Fully-adjusted 1.00 1.46 (1.05-2.05) 1.58 (1.01-2.48) 0.034 Death Crude 1.00 1.40 (0.73-2.69) 3.98 (2.01-7.90) <0.001 Fully-adjusted 1.00 0.87 (0.44-1.73) 2.42 (1.19-4.95) 0.003

scholarly journals Exploring biomarkers of age in routine diagnostics for the risk stratification of older patients in the emergency department

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
P Bahrmann ◽  
A L Kunz ◽  
A Schoenstein ◽  
E Giannitsis ◽  
H.-W Wahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Biological Aging ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Objectives To estimate the association of the routinely applied biological age-related biomarkers hs-TnT, CRP and Hemoglobin (Hb) with mortality for the purpose of older patient's risk stratification in the emergency department (ED). Design Exploratory, prospective cohort study with a follow-up at 2.5 years after recruitment start. Setting and participants A cardiological emergency department (ED), chest pain unit, of our University Hospital. N=256 cardiological ED patients with a minimum age of 70 years and with an expected life-expectancy above 24h. Methods Data from the hospital files were supplemented by a questionnaire. Patients were followed-up for mortality by requesting registry office information. Results Among N=256 patients 63 died over the follow-up period. Positive results in each of the three biomarkers alone as well as the combination were associated with increased all-cause mortality at follow-up. The number of positive age-related biomarkers appeared to be strongly indicative of the risk of mortality, even when controlled for major confounders (age, sex, BMI, creatinine clearance, and comorbidity). Conclusion and implications In older ED patients, biomarkers explicitly related to biological aging processes such as hs-TnT, CRP and Hb were independently of each other as well as combined associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Thus, they may have the potential to be used to supplement the general risk stratification of older patients in the ED. Validation of the results in a large dataset is needed. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Robert Bosch Foundation, Stuttgart, Germany Kaplan-Meier curves with 95% CI Kaplan-Meier curves for patients grouped

Lower perception of pharmacological treatment increases risk of non-adherence to medication

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
CB Graversen ◽  
JB Valentin ◽  
ML Larsen ◽  
S Riahi ◽  
T Holmberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pharmacological Treatment ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Drug Class ◽  
Angiotensin Receptor Blockers ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Adherence To Medication ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Patient Reported ◽  
High Level

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The Danish Heart Foundation Background A large proportion of patients fail to reach optimal adherence to medication following incident ischemic heart disease (IHD) despite amble evidence of the beneficial effect of medication. Non-adherence to medication increases risk of disease-related adverse outcomes but none has explored how perception about pharmacological treatment detail on non-adherence using register-based follow-up data. Purpose To investigate the association between patients’ perception of pharmacological treatment and risk of non-initiation and non-adherence to medication in a population with incident IHD. Methods This cohort study followed 871 patients until 365 days after incident IHD. The study combined patient-reported survey data on perception about pharmacological treatment (categorised by ‘To a high level’, ‘To some level’, and ‘To a lesser level’) with register-based data on reimbursed prescription of cardiovascular medication (antithrombotics, statins, ACE-inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, and β-blockers). Non-initiation was defined as no pick-up of medication in the first 180 days following incident IHD and analysed by Poisson regression. Two different measures evaluated non-adherence in patients initiating treatment: 1) proportion of days covered (PDC) analysed by Poisson regression, and 2) risk of discontinuation analysed by Cox proportional hazard regression. All analyses were adjusted for confounding variables (age, sex, ethnicity, income, educational level, civil status, occupation, charlson comorbidity index, supportive relatives, and individual consultation in medication) identified by directed acyclic graph and obtained from national registers and the survey. Item non-response was handled by multiple imputation and item consistency was evaluated by McDonalds omega. Results Lower perceptions about pharmacological treatment was associated with increased risk of non-initiation and non-adherence to medication irrespectively of drug class and adherence measure in the multiple adjusted analyses (please see figure illustrating results on antithrombotics). A dose-response relationship was observed both at 180- and 365-days of follow-up, but the steepest decline in adherence differed when comparing the two adherence measures (results not shown). Moderate internal consistency was found for the summed measure of perception (McDonalds omega = 0.67). Conclusion Lower perception of pharmacological treatment was associated with subsequent non-initiation and non-adherence to medication, irrespectively of measurement method and drug class. Abstract Figure. Figre: Multiple adjusted analyses

Identifying children at high risk for infection-related decompensation using a predictive emergency department-based electronic assessment tool

Diagnosis ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Sepanski ◽  
Arno L. Zaritsky ◽  
Sandip A. Godambe
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Firing Rate ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Electronic Assessment ◽  
Ed Visits

AbstractObjectivesElectronic alert systems to identify potential sepsis in children presenting to the emergency department (ED) often either alert too frequently or fail to detect earlier stages of decompensation where timely treatment might prevent serious outcomes.MethodsWe created a predictive tool that continuously monitors our hospital’s electronic health record during ED visits. The tool incorporates new standards for normal/abnormal vital signs based on data from ∼1.2 million children at 169 hospitals. Eighty-two gold standard (GS) sepsis cases arising within 48 h were identified through retrospective chart review of cases sampled from 35,586 ED visits during 2012 and 2014–2015. An additional 1,027 cases with high severity of illness (SOI) based on 3 M’s All Patient Refined – Diagnosis-Related Groups (APR-DRG) were identified from these and 26,026 additional visits during 2017. An iterative process assigned weights to main factors and interactions significantly associated with GS cases, creating an overall “score” that maximized the sensitivity for GS cases and positive predictive value for high SOI outcomes.ResultsTool implementation began August 2017; subsequent improvements resulted in 77% sensitivity for identifying GS sepsis within 48 h, 22.5% positive predictive value for major/extreme SOI outcomes, and 2% overall firing rate of ED patients. The incidence of high-severity outcomes increased rapidly with tool score. Admitted alert positive patients were hospitalized nearly twice as long as alert negative patients.ConclusionsOur ED-based electronic tool combines high sensitivity in predicting GS sepsis, high predictive value for physiologic decompensation, and a low firing rate. The tool can help optimize critical treatments for these high-risk children.

scholarly journals SPMSQ for risk stratification of older patients in the emergency department

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (S4) ◽  
pp. 222-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Schönstein ◽  
H.-W. Wahl ◽  
H. A. Katus ◽  
A. Bahrmann
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Nursing Home ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Composite Endpoint ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Nursing Home Admission ◽  
Initial Contact

Abstract Background Risk stratification of older patients in the emergency department (ED) is seen as a promising and efficient solution for handling the increase in demand for geriatric emergency medicine. Previously, the predictive validity of commonly used tools for risk stratification, such as the identification of seniors at risk (ISAR), have found only limited evidence in German geriatric patient samples. Given that the adverse outcomes in question, such as rehospitalization, nursing home admission and mortality, are substantially associated with cognitive impairment, the potential of the short portable mental status questionnaire (SPMSQ) as a tool for risk stratification of older ED patients was investigated. Objective To estimate the predictive validity of the SPMSQ for a composite endpoint of adverse events (e.g. rehospitalization, nursing home admission and mortality). Method This was a prospective cohort study with 260 patients aged 70 years and above, recruited in a cardiology ED. Patients with a likely life-expectancy below 24 h were excluded. Follow-up examinations were conducted at 1, 3, 6 and 12 month(s) after recruitment. Results The SPMSQ was found to be a significant predictor of adverse outcomes not at 1 month (area under the curve, AUC 0.55, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.46–0.63) but at 3 months (AUC 0.61, 95% CI 0.54–0.68), 6 months (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.56–0.70) and 12 months (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.56–0.70) after initial contact. Conclusion For longer periods of observation the SPMSQ can be a predictor of a composite endpoint of adverse outcomes even when controlled for a range of confounders. Its characteristics, specifically the low sensitivity, make it unsuitable as an accurate risk stratification tool on its own.

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