scholarly journals Time–frequency dependency of financial risk and economic risk: evidence from Greece

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dervis Kirikkaleli
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Economic Risk ◽  
Frequency Dependency ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The One ◽  
Of Greece

Abstract This study aims to shed some light on the one of the most popular phenomena in the economics and finance literature—nexus between economic growth and financial development—for the case of Greece over 1990Q1 to 2018Q4 within the framework of risk. In other words, this study investigates the causal link between financial risk and economic risk in Greece using wavelet coherence tests while answering the following questions: (i) does financial risk lead to economic risk in Greece and/or does economic risk lead to financial risk in Greece, and (ii) if so, why? The wavelet coherence approach allows the study to capture the long-run and short-run causal linkages among the time series variables since the approach combines time and frequency domain causalities. The findings from wavelet coherence supports the Schumpeter hypothesis since the findings proves that there is unidirectional causality from financial risk to economic risk in Greece (i) between 1995 and 1998; (ii) between 2003 and 2013; (iii) between 2013 and 2017 at different frequency levels. The findings clearly reveal how financial risk is important predictor for economic risk in Greece over the period of 1990–2018.

COVID-19 pandemic and connectedness across financial markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abubakr Naeem ◽  
Saba Sehrish ◽  
Mabel D. Costa
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Momentum Trading

Purpose This study aims to estimate the time–frequency connectedness among global financial markets. It draws a comparison between the full sample and the sample during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the connectedness framework of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Barunik and Krehlik (2018), both of which consider time and frequency connectedness and show that spillover is specific to not only the time domain but also the frequency (short- and long-run) domain. The analysis also includes pairwise connectedness by making use of network analysis. Daily data on the MSCI World Index, Barclays Bloomberg Global Treasury Index, Oil future, Gold future, Dow Jones World Islamic Index and Bitcoin have been used over the period from May 01, 2013 to July 31, 2020. Findings This study finds that cryptocurrency, bond and gold are hedges against both conventional stocks and Islamic stocks on average; however, these are not “safe havens” during an economic crisis, i.e. COVID-19. External shocks, such as COVID-19, strengthen the return connectedness among all six financial markets. Research limitations/implications For investors, the study provides important insights that during external shocks such as COVID-19, there is a spillover effect, and investors are unable to hedge risk between conventional stocks and Islamic stocks. These so-called safe haven investment alternatives suffer from the similar negative impact of systemic financial risk. However, during an external shock such as COVID-19, cryptocurrencies, bonds and gold can be used to hedge risk against conventional stocks, Islamic stocks and oil. Moreover, the findings imply that by engaging in momentum trading, active investors can gain short-run benefits before the market processes any new information. Originality/value The study contributes to the emergent literature investigating the connectedness among financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. It provides evidence that the return connectedness among six global financial markets, namely, conventional stocks, Islamic stocks, bond, oil, gold and cryptocurrency, is extremely strong. From a methodological standpoint, this study finds that COVID-19 pandemic shock has a significant short-run impact on the connectedness among financial markets.

Analyses of wavelet coherence: financial risk and economic risk in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dervis Kirikkaleli
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Economic Risk ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Decisions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This study aims to close a gap in the relevant literature by investigating the causal linkage between financial risk (FR) and economic risk (ER) in China for the period 1985Q1–2018Q4. Design/methodology/approach Based on the aim of the present study, Toda Yamamoto causality and wavelet coherence tests are used to capture the relationship between FR and ER in China. Findings The findings from wavelet coherence reveal that there is feedback causality between FR and ER in China at different frequencies and different periods between 1985 and 2018. The consistency of the findings from wavelet coherence is confirmed by the outcomes of Toda Yamamoto causality test. Research limitations/implications Although this study provides strong and consistent empirical findings for China, further studies should consider advancing the argument by focusing on different emerging markets. Practical implications Results are crucial for policy decision-making and can be used by researchers and macro-economic policymakers to take an action, if necessary, by implementing more appropriate or alternative economic and financial decisions. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this relationship in China has not been comprehensively explored by using newly developed econometrics techniques. Therefore, this study is likely to open a debate about the literature as the study concludes with a discussion on short- and long-run implications for policymakers in China.

scholarly journals Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships Using Both Time Domain and Time-Frequency Domain; An Application to Wealth-To-Income Ratio

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angeliki Skoura
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Joint Application ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Economic Time

The objective of this paper is the joint application of two different methodological concepts for the detection of lead-lag relationships in economic time-series in order to investigate their consistency and their potential complementarity. The first methodology, a time domain analysis based on vector error correction model, provides evidence about the existence of long-run equilibrium of the time-series and the short-run lead-lag behaviors. The second methodology, a time-frequency concept based on the phase difference of the cross-wavelet coherence, analyzes the lead-lag relationships across various timescales and reveals the altering of leadership over time. The two methods are applied to time-series of wealth-to-income ratio of four developed countries over the period 1970–2010 and analyze the lead-lag relationships of the countries in the long-run and in the short-run. The results show that the two methods are consistent in their major long-run findings, however, they reveal different aspects regarding the short-run dynamics of the lead-lag relationships. Furthermore, the results suggest the complementarity of the two methodologies in the context of a complete framework for the analysis of the lead-lag relationships in non-stationary economic time-series.

scholarly journals Analysis of Wavelet Coherence: Service Sector Index and Economic Growth in an Emerging Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayhan Orhan ◽  
Derviş Kirikkaleli ◽  
Fatih Ayhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run

The present study aims to shed some light on the causal link between the Service Sector Index in the Turkish stock market and economic growth using a wavelet coherence approach. Thus, the present study determines whether the Service Sector Index leads to economic growth in Turkey and/or vice versa. Based on our aim, we use the wavelet coherence approach, which allows us to capture long-run and short-run causal linkages between the Service Sector Index and economic growth in Turkey, since the approach combines both time domain causality and frequency domain causality tests. The findings from wavelet coherence reveal that there is one-way causality running from the Service Sector Index to economic growth in Turkey at different frequencies and different periods between 1997 and 2017.

Migration and US agricultural competitiveness

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Farm Workers ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lower Wage ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Agriculture has one of the highest shares of foreign-born and unauthorized workers among US industries; over three-fourths of hired farm workers were born abroad, usually in Mexico, and over half of all farm workers are unauthorized. Farm employers are among the few to openly acknowledge their dependence on migrant and unauthorized workers, and they oppose efforts to reduce unauthorized migration unless the government legalizes currently illegal farm workers or provides easy access to legal guest workers. The effects of migrants on agricultural competitiveness are mixed. On the one hand, wages held down by migrants keep labour-intensive commodities competitive in the short run, but the fact that most labour-intensive commodities are shipped long distances means that long-run US competitiveness may be eroded as US farmers have fewer incentives to develop labour-saving and productivity-improving methods of farming and production in lower-wage countries expands.

Technological Effects on Wages and Labour: Classical and Neoclassical Ideas

2012 ◽  
pp. 97-124
Author(s):  
Anastassios D. Karayiannis ◽  
Ioannis A. Katselidis
Keyword(s):  
Technological Progress ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Marginal Productivity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Real Wage Rate ◽  
Productivity Theory ◽  
The One ◽  
The 19Th Century

The introduction of new technology may have significant effects on the level of employment and the real wage rate; effects that have received considerable attention even from the economic thinkers of the classical period. This paper aims to analyze and evaluate the various views and arguments of early classical and neoclassical economists concerning the technological effects on wages and employment. On the one hand, the economists of the early decades of the 19th century (mainly between 1800 and 1840) had recognized and analyzed many of the effects of technology on labourers' welfare. On the other hand, early neoclassical theorists of the period between 1890 and 1935 tried to expand on the classical views and to develop their own theoretical arguments, based on new perceptions like the marginal productivity theory. The main conclusion drawn is that most of early classical and neoclassical economists recognized and specified the temporary adverse effects of new technology on labour (e.g. short-run unemployment), but, at the same time, they argued for the beneficial long-run consequences of technological progress on labourers' welfare.

scholarly journals Nexus Among Tourism, Environmental Degradation, Inward FDI and Economic Growth: Fresh Evidence from ASEAN Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azam ◽  
Sameena Noor ◽  
Muhammad Atif Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

Abstract This study aims to investigate the linkage among tourism, foreign direct investment, environmental degradation by CO2 emissions and economic growth in five countries from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over 1995–2017. The outcomes of pooled mean group (PMG) estimator reveal that FDI and international tourism arrivals have a significantly positive influence on economic growth both in the short-run and the long-run. The association between growth and CO2 emissions is found negative and significant. The Granger causality result reveals that there is bidirectional causality between FDI and growth, tourism and growth and FDI and tourism. A unidirectional causal link is found between CO2 emissions and growth, tourism and population and population and CO2 emissions. These findings suggest enhance more inward FDI, control environmental pollution, but also necessary to attract more tourists towards these countries, which in turn, generate revenue and boost up economic growth and development.JEL Classification Codes: F21; O13; O47; Z32

scholarly journals Does Renewable Energy Use Enhance Exchange Rate Appreciation and Stable Rate of Inflation?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abraham Deka ◽  
Behiye Cavusoglu ◽  
Sindiso Dube
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Zero Carbon

Abstract The current study is aimed at investigating the causal link among the use of renewable energy, rate of currency exchange and the rate of inflation of Brazil with the ARDL model. The findings of the ECM show that in the long-run a bidirectional causal association between exchange rate and renewable energy of Brazil exists. This shows that the rate of currency exchange causes use of renewable energy, and the use of renewable energy causes the rate of currency exchange in Brazil. Inflation rate also causes renewable energy and exchange rate of Brazil in the long-run. The rate of adjustment to equilibrium is also very low, below 50%, indicating that it will take long to adjust to long-run equilibrium. In the short-run, we ascertain that renewable energy use in Brazil has a significant negative effect on the rate of currency exchange, showing that a rise in the use of renewable energy in Brazil significantly cause the exchange rate to appreciate. Thus, on top of lowering carbon-dioxide emissions and global warming effects, renewable energy use in Brazil significantly improves the currency’s value. Therefore, the use of renewable energy should be promoted and nations should shift to using renewable energy. This move will also encourage zero carbon in the future.

scholarly journals IN THE NAME OF THE FATHER: INHERITANCE SYSTEMS AND THE DYNAMICS OF STATE CAPACITY

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Èric Roca Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
State Building ◽  
Gender Egalitarianism ◽  
European Tradition ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
The One

This paper examines how the degree of gender-egalitarianism embedded in inheritance rules impacts state capacity at its early stages during medieval times. We present a theoretical model in which building state capacity enables nobles to raise taxes and overcome rivals. The model addresses the use of inheritance to consolidate landholding dynasties, also accommodating interstate marriages between landed heirs. On the one hand, dynastic continuity—of utmost importance to medieval lords—directly encourages state-building. Male-biased inheritance rules historically maximize the likelihood of dynastic continuity. We weigh this effect against the indirect impact of the more frequent land-merging marriages under gender-egalitarian rules. Contrary to the literature, our results suggest that gender-egalitarian norms—offering a low probability of dynastic continuity—promote state capacity in the short run more than gender-biased norms. In the long run, results are reversed, providing a rationale for the pervasive European tradition of preference for men as heirs.

Rationality at the Brink: The Role of Cognitive Processes in Failures of Deterrence

1978 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack L. Snyder
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Other ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Value Conflicts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cost

Decision makers in international crises seek to reconcile two values: on the one hand, avoiding the loss of prestige and credibility that capitulation would entail and, on the other, avoiding war. These values conflict with each other, in the sense that any policy designed to further one of them will jeopardize the other. Cognitive theory suggests that in ambiguous circumstances a decision maker will suppress uncomfortable value conflicts, conceptualizing his dilemma in such a way that the values appear to be consonant. President Kennedy's process of decision and rationalization in the Cuban missile crisis fits this pattern. He contended that compromise would allay the risk of war in the short run only at the cost of increasing it in the long run. Thus, he saw his policy of no compromise as furthering both the goal of maintaining U.S. prestige and credibility and the goal of avoiding war.

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