scholarly journals The forecast of COVID-19 spread risk at the county level

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Murtadha D. Hssayeni ◽  
Arjuna Chala ◽  
Roger Dev ◽  
Lili Xu ◽  
Jesse Shaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
County Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

AbstractThe early detection of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is important to save people’s lives and restart the economy quickly and safely. People’s social behavior, reflected in their mobility data, plays a major role in spreading the disease. Therefore, we used the daily mobility data aggregated at the county level beside COVID-19 statistics and demographic information for short-term forecasting of COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. The daily data are fed to a deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the accumulated number of COVID-19 cases in the next two weeks. A significant average correlation was achieved (r=0.83 (p = 0.005)) between the model predicted and actual accumulated cases in the interval from August 1, 2020 until January 22, 2021. The model predictions had r > 0.7 for 87% of the counties across the United States. A lower correlation was reported for the counties with total cases of <1000 during the test interval. The average mean absolute error (MAE) was 605.4 and decreased with a decrease in the total number of cases during the testing interval. The model was able to capture the effect of government responses on COVID-19 cases. Also, it was able to capture the effect of age demographics on the COVID-19 spread. It showed that the average daily cases decreased with a decrease in the retiree percentage and increased with an increase in the young percentage. Lessons learned from this study not only can help with managing the COVID-19 pandemic but also can help with early and effective management of possible future pandemics. The code used for this study was made publicly available on https://github.com/Murtadha44/covid-19-spread-risk.

scholarly journals The Forecast of COVID-19 Spread Risk at The County Level

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murtadha Hssayeni ◽  
Arjuna Chala ◽  
Roger Dev ◽  
Lili Xu ◽  
Jesse Shaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
County Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Deep Model ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Abstract The early detection of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is important to save people's lives and restart the economy quickly and safely. People’s social behavior as captured by their mobility data plays a role in spreading the disease. Therefore, we used the daily mobility data aggregated at the county level beside COVID-19 statistics and demographic information for short-term forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. The daily data are fed to a deep model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the accumulated number of COVID-19 cases in the next two weeks. A significant average correlation was achieved (r=0.83 (p=0.005)) between the model prediction and the actual accumulated cases in the interval from August 1, 2020 until January 22, 2021. The model predictions had r > 0.7 for 87% of the counties across the United States. Lower correlation was reported for the counties with a total cases of <1,000 during the test interval. The average mean absolute error (MAE) was 605.4, and it was decreasing with the decrease in the total number of cases during the testing interval. The model was able to capture the effect of government responses on COVID-19 cases. Also, it was able to capture the effect of age demographics on the COVID-19 spread where average daily cases decrease with the decrease in retires percentage, and increase with the increase in young percentage. Lessons learned from this study not only can help with managing the COVID-19 pandemic but also could also help with early and effective management of possible future pandemics.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF METHODS OF INCREASING DATA RELIABILITY FOR PROBLEMS OF SHORT TERM FORECASTING OF NODAL LOAD

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (60) ◽  
pp. 51-57
Author(s):  
P.V. Shymaniuk ◽  
◽  
V.O. Miroshnyk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Validation ◽  
Clustering Methods ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Northwestern Region ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

A comparative analysis of clustering methods was performed to identify gaps and anomalous values in the data. Data from the northwestern region of the United States were used for evaluation. According to the analysis results, it was found that the use of the DBSCAN method leads to a much smaller number of false positives. An algorithm for two-stage data validation using clustering and time series decomposition methods is proposed. Ref.9, fig. 3, tables 3.

scholarly journals Excess of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to fine particulate matter exposure during the 2020 wildfires in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (33) ◽  
pp. eabi8789
Author(s):  
Xiaodan Zhou ◽  
Kevin Josey ◽  
Leila Kamareddine ◽  
Miah C. Caine ◽  
Tianjia Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fine Particulate ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Long Term Trends

The year 2020 brought unimaginable challenges in public health, with the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic and wildfires across the western United States. Wildfires produce high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Recent studies reported that short-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased risk of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We acquired and linked publicly available daily data on PM2.5, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and other confounders for 92 western U.S. counties that were affected by the 2020 wildfires. We estimated the association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 during the wildfires and the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We adjusted for several time-varying confounding factors (e.g., weather, seasonality, long-term trends, mobility, and population size). We found strong evidence that wildfires amplified the effect of short-term exposure to PM2.5 on COVID-19 cases and deaths, although with substantial heterogeneity across counties.

Cultural Awareness of Students in Communication Sciences and Disorders: A Mixed-Methods Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1231-1242
Author(s):  
Celeste Domsch ◽  
Lori Stiritz ◽  
Jay Huff
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Study Abroad ◽  
Cultural Awareness ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Global Awareness ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Study ◽  
Short Term Study

Purpose This study used a mixed-methods design to assess changes in students' cultural awareness during and following a short-term study abroad. Method Thirty-six undergraduate and graduate students participated in a 2-week study abroad to England during the summers of 2016 and 2017. Quantitative data were collected using standardized self-report measures administered prior to departure and after returning to the United States and were analyzed using paired-samples t tests. Qualitative data were collected in the form of daily journal reflections during the trip and interviews after returning to the United States and analyzed using phenomenological methods. Results No statistically significant changes were evident on any standardized self-report measures once corrections for multiple t tests were applied. In addition, a ceiling effect was found on one measure. On the qualitative measures, themes from student transcripts included increased global awareness and a sense of personal growth. Conclusions Measuring cultural awareness poses many challenges. One is that social desirability bias may influence responses. A second is that current measures of cultural competence may exhibit ceiling or floor effects. Analysis of qualitative data may be more useful in examining effects of participation in a short-term study abroad, which appears to result in decreased ethnocentrism and increased global awareness in communication sciences and disorders students. Future work may wish to consider the long-term effects of participation in a study abroad for emerging professionals in the field.

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

Winning the Argument and Moving the Fight: The Legacy of a Grassroots Humanitarian

Public Voices ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 115
Author(s):  
Mary Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
United States ◽  
Winning Strategy ◽  
Supreme Court Decision ◽  
The United States ◽  
Colleges And Universities ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Trade Offs

The author of this article argues that the two-decades-long litigation struggle was necessary to push the political actors in Mississippi into a more virtuous than vicious legal/political negotiation. The second and related argument, however, is that neither the 1992 United States Supreme Court decision in Fordice nor the negotiation provided an adequate riposte to plaintiffs’ claims. The author shows that their chief counsel for the first phase of the litigation wanted equality of opportunity for historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs), as did the plaintiffs. In the course of explicating the role of a legal grass-roots humanitarian, Coleman suggests lessons learned and trade-offs from that case/negotiation, describing the tradeoffs as part of the political vestiges of legal racism in black public higher education and the need to move HBCUs to a higher level of opportunity at a critical juncture in the life of tuition-dependent colleges and universities in the United States. Throughout the essay the following questions pose themselves: In thinking about the Road to Fordice and to political settlement, would the Justice Department lawyers and the plaintiffs’ lawyers connect at the point of their shared strength? Would the timing of the settlement benefit the plaintiffs and/or the State? Could plaintiffs’ lawyers hold together for the length of the case and move each piece of the case forward in a winning strategy? Who were plaintiffs’ opponents and what was their strategy? With these questions in mind, the author offers an analysis of how the campaign— political/legal arguments and political/legal remedies to remove the vestiges of de jure segregation in higher education—unfolded in Mississippi, with special emphasis on the initiating lawyer in Ayers v. Waller and Fordice, Isaiah Madison

“Of Sound Mind and Body”

2019 ◽  
pp. 64-86
Author(s):  
Frank E. Vandervort ◽  
Vincent J. Palusci
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Substance Abuse ◽  
Social Problem ◽  
Drug Testing ◽  
The United States ◽  
Developmental Trajectory ◽  
Prenatally Exposed ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mind And Body ◽  
Sound Mind

Substance abuse is a major medical and social problem. Estimates suggest that each year some 15 percent of the 4 million babies born in the United States are exposed to drugs or alcohol. Research demonstrates that exposure to these substances is harmful to the children in both the short term and across their developmental trajectory. This chapter summarizes the harms that might result from such prenatal exposure and considers the ways that both federal and state law respond to this. The chapter argues for universal drug testing of newborns in an effort to ascertain whether they have been prenatally exposed to such substances so that treatment and other services can be provided.

scholarly journals Preparedness and response to an emerging health threat—Lessons learned from Candida auris outbreaks in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Diane Meyer ◽  
Elena K. Martin ◽  
Syra Madad ◽  
Priya Dhagat ◽  
Jennifer B. Nuzzo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Healthcare Organizations ◽  
Candida Auris ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Healthcare Facilities

Abstract Objective: Candida auris infections continue to occur across the United States and abroad, and healthcare facilities that care for vulnerable populations must improve their readiness to respond to this emerging organism. We aimed to identify and better understand challenges faced and lessons learned by those healthcare facilities who have experienced C. auris cases and outbreaks to better prepare those who have yet to experience or respond to this pathogen. Design: Semi-structured qualitative interviews. Setting: Health departments, long-term care facilities, acute-care hospitals, and healthcare organizations in New York, Illinois, and California. Participants: Infectious disease physicians and nurses, clinical and environmental services, hospital leadership, hospital epidemiology, infection preventionists, emergency management, and laboratory scientists who had experiences either preparing for or responding to C. auris cases or outbreaks. Methods: In total, 25 interviews were conducted with 84 participants. Interviews were coded using NVivo qualitative coding software by 2 separate researchers. Emergent themes were then iteratively discussed among the research team. Results: Key themes included surveillance and laboratory capacity, inter- and intrafacility communication, infection prevention and control, environmental cleaning and disinfection, clinical management of cases, and media concerns and stigma. Conclusions: Many of the operational challenges noted in this research are not unique to C. auris, and the ways in which we address future outbreaks should be informed by previous experiences and lessons learned, including the recent outbreaks of C. auris in the United States.

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