Conditional survival probability of patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 284-284
Author(s):  
Mark Vikas Mishra ◽  
Colin Eamon Champ ◽  
Timothy Norman Showalter ◽  
Scott W. Keith ◽  
Pramila R. Anne ◽  
...  

284 Background: The purpose of this study is to evaluate conditional survival (CS) probabilities for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PC) amongst patients who have survived ≥1 more year(s) after diagnosis. Methods: Patients with resected PC from 1998-2008 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. Data on patient, tumor and treatment characteristics were extracted. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate analysis (MVA) at different time points from survival was performed to determine independent prognostic factors associated with all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: A total of 4,883 patients with resected PC were identified. Fourteen percent of patients had Stage IA/B disease, 23% Stage IIA, 53% Stage IIB, and 2% Stage IIIA, and 6% with unknown stage. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimates for patients at diagnosis were 67%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. One, 3- and 5-year survival probabilities conditional upon number of years already survived are shown in table 1. Prognostic factors significantly correlated with improved OS at the time of diagnosis on MVA include: earlier stage, younger age, later year of diagnosis, white race, female gender, and residence in a high income district (p < 0.05). After already surviving 3 years following diagnosis, younger age was the only prognostic factor correlated with improved OS (p<0.05). Conclusions: CS estimates provide additional prognostic information that may be used to counsel PC patients on how their prognosis may change over time. Further research utilizing prospectively-collected data is warranted to help determine recommended follow-up intervals and benchmarks for future clinical trials. [Table: see text]

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxin Ding ◽  
Runyi Jiang ◽  
Yuhong Chen ◽  
Jing Jing ◽  
Xiaoshuang Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Previous studies have reported poorer survival in head and neck melanoma (HNM) than in body melanoma (BM). Individualized tools to predict the prognosis for patients with HNM or BM remain insufficient. Objectives To compare the characteristics of HNM and BM, and to establish and validate the nomograms for predicting the 3-, 5- and 10-year survival of patients with HNM or BM. Methods We studied patients with HNM or BM from 2004 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The HNM group and BM group were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. We performed the Kaplan-Meier method for survival analysis, and used multivariate Cox proportional hazards models to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms for HNM patients or BM patients were developed via the rms package, and were measured by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Results Of 70605 patients acquired, 21% (n = 15071) had HNM and 79% (n = 55534) had BM. The HNM group contained more older patients, male patients, and lentigo maligna melanoma, and more frequently had thicker tumors and metastases than the BM group. The 5-year CSS and OS rates were 88.1 ± 0.3% and 74.4 ± 0.4% in the HNM group and 92.5 ± 0.1% and 85.8 ± 0.2% in the BM group, respectively. Eight independent prognostic factors (age, sex, histology, thickness, ulceration, stage, metastases, and surgery) were identified to construct nomograms for HNM patients or BM patients. The performance of the nomograms were excellent: the C-index of the CSS prediction for HNM patients and BM patients in the training cohort were 0.839 and 0.895, respectively; in the validation cohort, they were 0.848 and 0.888, respectively; the AUCs for the 3-, 5- and 10-year CSS rates of HNM were 0.871, 0.865 and 0.854 (training), and 0.881, 0.879 and 0.861 (validation), respectively; of BM, the AUCs were 0.924, 0.918 and 0.901 (training) and 0.916, 0.908 and 0.893 (validation), respectively; and the calibration plots showed great consistency. Conclusions The characteristics of HNM and BM are heterogeneous, and we constructed and validated specific nomograms as practical prognostic tools for patients with HNM or BM.


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhixiu Xia ◽  
Changliang Wang ◽  
Hong Zhang

Abstract Purpose Colon cancer (CC) is a very common gastrointestinal tumor that is prone to invasion and metastasis in the late stage. This study aims to observe the expression of Na+/Ca2+ exchangers (NCXs) and analyze the correlation between NCXs and the prognosis of CC. Methods Specimens of 111 stage II–IV CC patients were collected. We used western blotting, qPCR, and immunohistochemical staining to observe the distributions and expression levels of NCX isoforms (NCX1, NCX2, and NCX3) in CC and distal normal tissues. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess prognostic factors for patients. Results The expression of NCXs in most tumor specimens was lower than that in normal tissues. The NCX expression levels in tumor tissues from the primary tumor, local lymph node metastasis sites, and distant liver metastasis sites were increasingly significantly lower than those in normal tissues. The results of the Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the downregulation of any NCX isoform was closely related to the worse prognosis of advanced CC. Conclusion NCXs can be used as independent prognostic factors for CC. Our research results are expected to provide new targets for the treatment of CC.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 634-634
Author(s):  
Allan Andresson Lima Pereira ◽  
Jonathan M. Loree ◽  
Jennifer S Davis ◽  
Michael Lam ◽  
Van Karlyle Morris ◽  
...  

634 Background: Utilization of ctDNA has been rapidly adopted as a predictive diagnostic in advanced NSCLC and indications in GI cancers may be emerging. While tissue-based assays have yields above 90%, there is less known about factors that influence the sensitivity of ctDNA for detecting mutations. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated mCRC patients (pts) who had plasma-derived NGS utilizing a highly-sensitive 68-73-gene assay. Tissue from prior resections or biopsies underwent concurrent 46-gene sequencing. In a case-control design, pts with a known mutation on tissue and radiologic evidence of metastatic disease but no detectable ctDNA mutation were matched 1:3 with randomly selected pts with detectable mutations and compared according to clinical, laboratory, and radiologic characteristics. A binary logistic regression was performed and Kaplan-Meier and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to compare overall (OS) and progression-free (PFS) survivals. Results: Of 427 mCRC pts who underwent ctDNA testing, 416 pts met inclusion criteria. Plasma-derived NGS did not find tumor mutations in 66 cases (15.9%); 198 pts with detectable alterations were selected as controls. After multivariate analysis, the lack of detection of ctDNA was associated with decreasing age (OR 0.94; 95%CI 0.91-0.98; p = 0.004), absence of liver (OR 0.19; 95%CI 0.08-0.45; p < 0.001) and lymph node metastases (OR 0.28; 95%CI 0.12-0.70; p = 0.006). A key determinant was timing of collection relative to disease status: plasma collected after evidence of progression was substantially more likely to have detectable alterations (OR 10.95; 95%CI 4.23-28.33; p < .001); in these pts, the modeled rate of detection was 98%, which increased to > 99% if the pts also had either liver or nodal disease. Pts with no detectable ctDNA had better OS (HR 0.38; 95%CI 0.21-0.69, p = 0.002) and PFS (HR 0.52; 95%CI 0.32-0.85; p = 0.009). Conclusions: When limited to ctDNA collected in newly diagnosed or recently progressing pts, the yield of ctDNA is 98%, which equals or exceeds the yield of tissue based testing. Our findings support the notion that ctDNA testing, when appropriately utilized, can replace tissue based testing and may provide prognostic information.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5049-5049
Author(s):  
Corinne Maurice-Dror ◽  
Nicolette Fonseca ◽  
Cameron Herberts ◽  
William Fan ◽  
Alexander W. Wyatt ◽  
...  

5049 Background: CtDNA% (the tumour-derived proportion of cell-free DNA (cfDNA)) is abundant in >60% of mCRPC pts and associates with adverse clinical prognostic factors. However, prognostic associations have not been comprehensively tested across clinical contexts. We evaluated the utility of ctDNA% as an independent prognostic biomarker in patients with mCRPC prior to first-line (1L) therapy. Methods: 410 treatment-naïve mCRPC pts had blood samples drawn prior to 1L therapy and followed prospectively for outcomes. Plasma cfDNA was subjected to deep targeted sequencing and ctDNA% was calculated using validated methods ( Annala, Cancer Discov, 2018 ). Overall survival (OS), PSA progression free survival (PSA PFS) and PSA declines ≥50% from baseline (PSA50 response rate (RR)) were stratified by ctDNA% and compared using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results: Median age was 73 yrs. (range 45-98), the majority of pts had ECOG PS 0-1 (78%) and 9.5% had liver metastases at baseline. The most common 1L therapy employed was androgen receptor pathway inhibitors (90%). Median follow-up was 21 mo. (range 1-75) and median ctDNA% was 4.9% (range: 0-89%). Stratifying patients into high ctDNA (>30%) and Low ctDNA (≤2%) groups showed stronger association with OS and PSA PFS than grouping by median (Table). In a univariate comparison to pts with low ctDNA (≤2%), pts with high ctDNA% (>30%) had significantly shorter median PSA PFS, median OS and a lower PSA50 RR (Table). In a multivariable adjustment for clinical prognostic factors and cfDNA concentration, high ctDNA% remained strongly associated with OS (HR= 3.3, 95%CI: 2.1-5.3, p<0.001) and PSA PFS (HR: 3.7, 95%CI: 2.4-5.9, p<0.001). Although ctDNA% and total cfDNA concentration were correlated (R2=0.55), association with OS was stronger for ctDNA% than cfDNA concentration (stratified at median; HR: 2.9 (2.3-3.7), p<0.001 vs HR: 2.1 (1.7-2.6), p<0.001). Conclusions: In a large cohort of treatment-naïve mCRPC pts, ctDNA% prior to 1L treatment provided strong prognostic information independent of known clinical factors. These data further demonstrate the multipronged clinical utility of ctDNA-based profiling for actionable genomic alterations.[Table: see text]


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxin Ding ◽  
Runyi Jiang ◽  
Yuhong Chen ◽  
Jing Jing ◽  
Xiaoshuang Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Previous studies have reported poorer survival in head and neck melanoma (HNM) than in body melanoma (BM). Individualized tools to predict the prognosis for patients with HNM or BM remain insufficient. We aim to compare the characteristics of HNM and BM, and establish and validate the nomograms for predicting the 3-, 5- and 10-year survival of patients with HNM or BM.Methods: We studied patients with HNM or BM from 2004 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The HNM group and BM group were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. We performed the Kaplan-Meier method for survival analysis, and used multivariate Cox proportional hazards models to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms for HNM patients or BM patients were developed via the rms package, and were measured by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plots.Results: Of 70605 patients acquired, 21% (n=15071) had HNM and 79% (n=55534) had BM. The HNM group contained more older patients, male patients, and lentigo maligna melanoma, and more frequently had thicker tumors and metastases than the BM group. The 5-year CSS and OS rates were 88.1±0.3% and 74.4±0.4% in the HNM group and 92.5±0.1% and 85.8±0.2% in the BM group, respectively. Eight independent prognostic factors (age, sex, histology, thickness, ulceration, stage, metastases, and surgery) were identified to construct nomograms for HNM patients or BM patients. The performance of the nomograms were excellent: the C-index of the CSS prediction for HNM patients and BM patients in the training cohort were 0.839 and 0.895, respectively; in the validation cohort, they were 0.848 and 0.888, respectively; the AUCs for the 3-, 5- and 10-year CSS rates of HNM were 0.871, 0.865 and 0.854 (training), and 0.881, 0.879 and 0.861 (validation), respectively; of BM, the AUCs were 0.924, 0.918 and 0.901 (training) and 0.916, 0.908 and 0.893 (validation), respectively; and the calibration plots showed great consistency.Conclusions: The characteristics of HNM and BM are heterogeneous, and we constructed and validated specific nomograms as practical prognostic tools for patients with HNM or BM.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 9081-9081
Author(s):  
T. K. Eigentler ◽  
A. Figl ◽  
D. Krex ◽  
P. Mohr ◽  
P. Kurschat ◽  
...  

9081 Background: This multicenter study aimed to identify prognostic factors in patients with brain metastases from malignant melanoma (BM-MM). Methods: In a retrospective survey in nine cancer centres of the German Cancer Society 692 patients were identified with BM-MM during the period 1986–2007. Overall survival was analysed using Kaplan-Meier estimator and compared by log-rank analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify prognostic factors significant for survival. Results: The median overall survival of the entire cohort was 5.0 months (95%CI: 4–5). Prognostic factors in the univariate Kaplan- Meier analysis were: Karnofsky Performance Status (≥ 70 vs. <70; p<0.001), number of BM-MM (single vs. multiple; p<0.001), pre-treatment levels of serum LDH (normal vs. elevated; p<0.001), pre-treatment levels of S100 (normal vs. elevated; p<0.001), Prognostic groups according to Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (Class I vs. Class II vs. Class III; p=0.0485), kind of applied treatment (for the cohort with single BM-MM, only) (stereotactic radiotherapy or neurosurgical metastasectomy vs. others; p=0.036). Cox proportional hazards models revealed pre-treatment elevated level of serum LDH (HR: 1.6, 95%CI: 1.3–2.0; p=0.00013) and number of BM-MM (HR: 1.6, 95%CI: 1.3–2.0; p=0.00011) in the whole cohort of patients as independent prognostic variables, whereas in patients with single BM-MM the kind of applied treatment (stereotactic radiotherapy or neurosurgical metastasectomy vs. others; HR: 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1–1.9; p=0.0061) was identified as unique prognostic factor. Conclusions: Overall survival of patients with BM-MM mainly depends on the number of metastases and pre-treatment levels of LDH. In case of a single brain metastasis the application of stereotactic radiotherapy or neurosurgical metastasectomy is by far the most important factor for improving survival. No significant financial relationships to disclose.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Kochav ◽  
R.C Chen ◽  
J.M.D Dizon ◽  
J.A.R Reiffel

Abstract Background Theoretical concern exists regarding AV block (AVB) with class I antiarrhythmics (AADs) when bundle branch block (BBB) is present. Whether this is substantiated in real-world populations is unknown. Purpose To determine the relationship between type of AAD and incidence of AVB in patients with preexisting BBB. Methods We retrospectively studied all patients with BBB who received class I and III AADs between 1997–2019 to compare incidence of AVB. We defined index time as first exposure to either drug class and excluded patients with prior AVB or exposed to both classes. Time-at-risk window ended at first outcome occurrence or when patients were no longer observed in the database. We estimated hazard ratios for incident AVB using Cox proportional hazards models with propensity score stratification, adjusting for over 32,000 covariates from the electronic health record. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to determine treatment effects over time. Results Of 40,120 individuals with BBB, 148 were exposed to a class I AAD and 2401 to a class III AAD. Over nearly 4,200 person-years of follow up, there were 22 and 620 outcome events in the class I and class III cohorts, respectively (Figure). In adjusted analyses, AVB risk was markedly lower in patients exposed to class I AADs compared with class III (HR 0.48 [95% CI 0.30–0.75]). Conclusion Among patients with BBB, exposure to class III AADs was strongly associated with greater risk of incident AVB. This likely reflects differences in natural history of patients receiving class I vs class III AADs rather than adverse class III effects, however, the lack of worse outcomes acutely with class I AADs suggests that they may be safer in BBB than suspected. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


2017 ◽  
Vol 117 (06) ◽  
pp. 1072-1082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyan Li ◽  
Steve Deitelzweig ◽  
Allison Keshishian ◽  
Melissa Hamilton ◽  
Ruslan Horblyuk ◽  
...  

SummaryThe ARISTOTLE trial showed a risk reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients treated with apixaban compared to warfarin. This retrospective study used four large US claims databases (MarketScan, PharMetrics, Optum, and Humana) of NVAF patients newly initiating apixaban or warfarin from January 1, 2013 to September 30, 2015. After 1:1 warfarin-apixaban propensity score matching (PSM) within each database, the resulting patient records were pooled. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) of stroke/SE and major bleeding (identified using the first listed diagnosis of inpatient claims) within one year of therapy initiation. The study included a total of 76,940 (38,470 warfarin and 38,470 apixaban) patients. Among the 38,470 matched pairs, 14,563 were from MarketScan, 7,683 were from PharMetrics, 7,894 were from Optum, and 8,330 were from Humana. Baseline characteristics were balanced between the two cohorts with a mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 71 (12) years and a mean (SD) CHA2DS2-VASc score of 3.2 (1.7). Apixaban initiators had a significantly lower risk of stroke/SE (HR: 0.67, 95 % CI: 0.59–0.76) and major bleeding (HR: 0.60, 95 % CI: 0.54–0.65) than warfarin initiators. Different types of stroke/SE and major bleeding – including ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, SE, intracranial haemorrhage, gastrointestinal bleeding, and other major bleeding – were all significantly lower for apixaban compared to warfarin treatment. Subgroup analyses (apixaban dosage, age strata, CHA2DS2-VASc or HAS-BLED score strata, or dataset source) all show consistently lower risks of stroke/SE and major bleeding associated with apixaban as compared to warfarin treatment. This is the largest “real-world” study on apixaban effectiveness and safety to date, showing that apixaban initiation was associated with significant risk reductions in stroke/SE and major bleeding compared to warfarin initiation after PSM. These benefits were consistent across various high-risk subgroups and both the standard-and low-dose apixaban dose regimens.Note: The review process for this manuscript was fully handled by Christian Weber, Editor in Chief.Supplementary Material to this article is available online at www.thrombosis-online.com.


2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Supplement_6) ◽  
pp. vi48-vi48
Author(s):  
James Cantrell ◽  
Pawan Acharya ◽  
Sara Vesely ◽  
Michael Confer ◽  
Ozer Algan ◽  
...  

Abstract BACKGROUND Chordomas are rare tumors arising from the embryonal notochord presenting at the base of skull, spine, or sacrum. Pediatric chordomas (PC) comprise less than 5% of all chordomas and are more likely to be atypical or dedifferentiated. Evidence for management is limited to single institution series with 5-year overall survival (OS) between 60-100%. METHODS Using the NCDB Participant User File, a retrospective observational cohort study was performed. The cohort was defined using the bone-soft-tissue, brain, and central nervous system databases selecting for cases with chordoma ICD-03 codes and age ≤ 25 years. Kaplan Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression were performed. RESULTS 297 patients from 2004-2017 met inclusion criteria for descriptive analysis with 269 cases included for survival analysis. Mean age was 16.9 years, with 10% less than age 5. The cohort was 55% female, 8% Black, and 79% White. Primary sites included bones of the skull (70%), spine (22%), and pelvis (6%). Regarding treatment, 7% had no resection, 49% sub-total resection (STR), 33% gross-total resection (GTR), and 11% unspecified resection. 51% received radiation therapy with 46% of those receiving proton therapy. 7% received chemotherapy. The 1, 3, 5, and 10-year OS was 95%, 86%, 77%, and 72%. Selected prognostic factors from univariable OS model for OS analysis included: age &gt; 5 (HR 0.30 (95% CI 0.16-0.57) p = 0.0002), surgical resection [GTR (HR 0.28 (95% CI 0.12-0.63) p = 0.0023) and STR (HR 0.27 (95% CI 0.12-0.59) p = 0.0011)], and radiation dose ≥ 7200cGy (HR 0.40 (95% CI 0.16-0.99) p = 0.047). CONCLUSION In the largest cohort reported for PC, 3 and 10-year OS was 86% and 72%. Age, surgery, and radiation dose are important prognostic factors. Propensity score analysis to gauge effect of treatment, tumor, and patient characteristics on OS is forthcoming.


2020 ◽  
pp. jrheum.200056
Author(s):  
Nathalie E. Marchand ◽  
Jeffrey A. Sparks ◽  
Sara K. Tedeschi ◽  
Susan Malspeis ◽  
Karen H. Costenbader ◽  
...  

Objective Being overweight or obese increases rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk among women, particularly among those diagnosed at a younger age. Abdominal obesity may contribute to systemic inflammation more than general obesity; thus, we investigated whether abdominal obesity, compared to general obesity, predicted RA risk in 2 prospective cohorts: the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHS II. Methods We followed 50,682 women (1986–2014) in NHS and 47,597 women (1993–2015) in NHS II, without RA at baseline. Waist circumference (WC), BMI, health outcomes, and covariate data were collected through biennial questionnaires. Incident RA cases and serologic status were identified by chart review. We examined the associations of WC and BMI with RA risk using time-varying Cox proportional hazards models. We repeated analyses restricted to age ≤ 55 years. Results During 28 years of follow-up, we identified 844 incident RA cases (527 NHS, 317 NHS II). Women with WC > 88 cm (35 in) had increased RA risk (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.06–1.41). A similar association was observed for seropositive RA, which was stronger among young and middle-aged women. Further adjustment for BMI attenuated the association to null. In contrast, BMI was associated with RA (HRBMI ≥ 30 vs < 25 1.33, 95% CI 1.05–1.68) and seropositive RA, even after adjusting for WC, and, as in WC analyses, this association was stronger among young and middle-aged women. Conclusion Abdominal obesity was associated with increased RA risk, particularly for seropositive RA, among young and middle-aged women; however, it did not independently contribute to RA risk beyond general obesity.


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