Insights From Mixture Cure Modeling of Molecular Markers for Prognosis in Breast Cancer

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (16) ◽  
pp. 2047-2054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yildiz E. Yilmaz ◽  
Jerald F. Lawless ◽  
Irene L. Andrulis ◽  
Shelley B. Bull

With the ultimate aim of improving clinical management of breast cancer, investigators have sought to identify molecular genetic markers that stratify newly diagnosed patients into subtypes differing in short- or long-term prognosis. Conventional survival models can fail to describe adequately the relationship between subtype and disease recurrence, particularly when there is a substantial proportion of long-term disease-free survivors. The observed patterns of disease-free survival in an undifferentiated patient cohort may be explained by an underlying mixture of two subgroups: patients who will remain free of disease in the long term (ie, cured), and those who will experience disease recurrence within their lifetime (ie, susceptible.) In this article, we review the concepts and methods of the mixture cure models and apply them in the analysis of molecular genetic prognostic factors for disease-free survival and time to disease recurrence in a cohort of patients with axillary lymph node–negative breast cancer.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e12545-e12545
Author(s):  
Hans-Christian Kolberg ◽  
Alexandra Edimiris ◽  
Oliver Hoffmann ◽  
Sarah Wetzig ◽  
Mohamed Shaheen ◽  
...  

e12545 Background: C-reactive protein (CRP) is an acute phase reactant influenced by inflammation and tissue damage. It has been demonstrated that elevated CRP levels are associated with poor outcome of cancer including metastatic breast cancer. However, evidence regarding an impact of CRP levels on outcome in early breast cancer (EBC) are missing. Methods: Patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) for EBC and with available data regarding CRP levels before therapy, pathologic complete remission (pCR) and follow-up were included. The association between CRP at baseline and outcome parameters was analyzed. Results: 156 women were included in this analysis, median follow up was 5.8 years. No association between CRP at baseline and pCR rates could be detected. 6.4% of the patients developed a local recurrence, 10.3% developed a distant recurrence and 5.1% died from breast cancer. A negative correlation (Spearman-Rho) between CRP at baseline and overall survival (OS) (Correlation coefficient (CC) -0.255; p = 0.45), disease free survival (DFS)(CC -0.348; p = 0.075), local recurrence free survival (LRFS)(CC -0.245; p = 0.327) and distant disease free survival (DDFS)(CC -0.422; p = 0.057) was not statistically significant, although especially in DFS and DDFS a strong trend was detected. The probability of death from breast cancer was 2% if the CRP was < 0.08 mg/dl and 40% if the CRP was > 2.08 m/dl, this association was highly statistically significant (Chi Square; p < 0.001). These results were independent from age, estrogen and progesterone receptor status, HER2 status and grading. Conclusions: CRP at baseline is not predictive for pCR in EBC after NACT in our patient dataset. However, an association of parameters of long-term prognosis with CRP could be demonstrated. Although the correlations of higher CRP at baseline and shorter OS, DFS, LRFS and DDFS were not significant, a strong trend could be detected that was reproduced in the analysis of different cut-offs for CRP and the probability of breast cancer mortality. Higher CRP-levels are indicating a worse prognosis in early breast cancer after NACT in this retrospective analysis. These results justify further investigation of CRP as a biomarker of long-term prognosis in early breast cancer in prospective trials.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Ruhstaller ◽  
Anita Giobbie-Hurder ◽  
Marco Colleoni ◽  
Maj-Britt Jensen ◽  
Bent Ejlertsen ◽  
...  

Purpose Luminal breast cancer has a long natural history, with recurrences continuing beyond 10 years after diagnosis. We analyzed long-term follow-up (LTFU) of efficacy outcomes and adverse events in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 study reported after a median follow-up of 12.6 years. Patients and Methods BIG 1-98 is a four-arm, phase III, double-blind, randomized trial comparing adjuvant letrozole versus tamoxifen (either treatment received for 5 years) and their sequences (2 years of one treatment plus 3 years of the other) for postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer. When pharmaceutical company sponsorship ended at 8.4 years of median follow-up, academic partners initiated an observational, LTFU extension collecting annual data on survival, disease status, and adverse events. Information from Denmark was from the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group Registry. Intention-to-treat analyses are reported. Results Of 8,010 enrolled patients, 4,433 were alive and not withdrawn at an LTFU participating center, and 3,833 (86%) had at least one LTFU report. For the monotherapy comparison of letrozole versus tamoxifen, we found a 9% relative reduction in the hazard of a disease-free survival event with letrozole (hazard ratio [HR], 0.91; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.01). HRs for other efficacy end points were similar to those for disease-free survival. Efficacy of letrozole versus tamoxifen for contralateral breast cancer varied significantly over time (0- to 5-, 5- to 10-, and > 10-year HRs, 0.62, 0.47, and 1.35, respectively; treatment-by-time interaction P = .005), perhaps reflecting a longer carryover effect of tamoxifen. Reporting of specific long-term adverse events seemed more effective with national registry than with case-record reporting of clinical follow-up. Conclusion Efficacy end points continued to show trends favoring letrozole. Letrozole reduced contralateral breast cancer frequency in the first 10 years, but this reversed beyond 10 years. This study illustrates the value of extended follow-up in trials of luminal breast cancer.


2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Poleszczuk ◽  
Kimberly Luddy ◽  
Lu Chen ◽  
Jae K. Lee ◽  
Louis B. Harrison ◽  
...  

1999 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 1118-1118 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hudis ◽  
M. Fornier ◽  
L. Riccio ◽  
D. Lebwohl ◽  
J. Crown ◽  
...  

PURPOSE: We conducted a phase II pilot study of dose-intensive adjuvant chemotherapy with doxorubicin followed sequentially by high-dose cyclophosphamide to determine the safety and feasibility of this dose-dense treatment and to estimate the disease-free and overall survival in breast cancer patients with four or more involved axillary lymph nodes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Seventy-three patients received adjuvant treatment with four cycles of doxorubicin 75 mg/m2 as an intravenous bolus every 21 days, followed by three cycles of cyclophosphamide 3,000 mg/m2 every 14 days with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor support. RESULTS: Seventy-one patients were assessable, and all but two completed all planned chemotherapy. There was no treatment-related mortality. The most common toxicity was neutropenic fever, which occurred in 39% of patients. Median disease-free survival is 66 months (95% confidence interval, 34 to 98 months), and median overall survival has not yet been reached. At 5 years of follow-up, the disease-free survival is 51.7%, and overall survival is 60.0%. There is no long-term treatment-related toxicity, and no cases of acute myelogenous leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome have been observed. CONCLUSION: Our pilot study of doxorubicin followed by cyclophosphamide demonstrates the safety and feasibility of the sequential dose-dense plan. Long-term follow-up, although noncomparative, is promising. However, this regimen is associated with a higher incidence of toxicity (and also higher costs) than the standard dose and schedule of doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide, and therefore it should not be used as conventional therapy in the absence of demonstrated improvement of outcome. Randomized trials testing the dose-dense approach have been completed but not yet reported. Because the sequential plan can decrease overlapping toxicities, it is an appropriate platform for the addition of newer active agents, such as taxanes or monoclonal antibodies.


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