Predicting overall survival for patients with periampullary carcinoma.
376 Background: The purpose of this study was to develop a model predicting the overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection, with or without adjuvant therapy. This will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. Methods: Patients treated between 2006-2012 in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry were analyzed. All patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for PAC. 334 patients had adequate records for analysis and were used to develop a multivariate model based on Cox regression. The variables used in our analysis were age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive lymph node ratio (# positive/total), positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy (RT), and tumor histology. Multivariate Cox hazards regression tested significance. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (c-index). Results: Median age of the cohort was 65 years. 54% of the patients were male. Median follow-up time was 16 months. Median overall survival was 19 months. T-stages were as follows: 7% T1, 9% T2, 77% T3, and 8% T4. 27% of the patients had a positive tumor margin, 68% of patients had positive lymph node spread. 81% of the patients had tubular adenocarcinoma, 9% ampullary adenocarcinoma, 5% cholangiocarcinoma, and 4% duodenal carcinoma. T-stage, tumor differentiation, tumor histology, positive lymph node (PLN) ratio, and adjuvant chemotherapy had a statistically significant association with overall survival (Table 1). The model performance c-index was evaluated as 0.630 with 95% CI as [0.571, 0.690], from a bootstrapping internal validation test on 3-year-survival. Conclusions: This model shows promise in predicting survival following resection for patients with PAC. More patient cases and further analysis of additional factors including specific RT related parameters and specific chemotherapy regimen are needed for development of a more robust model. [Table: see text]