External validation of two predictive scores of chemotherapy toxicities among older patients with solid cancer, from ELCAPA prospective cohort.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 12050-12050
Author(s):  
Maxime Frelaut ◽  
Philippe Caillet ◽  
Stephane Culine ◽  
Elena Paillaud ◽  
Christophe Tournigand ◽  
...  

12050 Background: Severe chemotherapy toxicities are frequent among older patients, and may have a major impact on mortality, comorbidities, and quality of life. Two scores were developed to predict severe toxicities: Chemotherapy Risk Assessment Scale for High-age patients (CRASH) score, and Cancer and Aging Research Group Study (CARG) score. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the predictive value of both scores on an external cohort. Secondary objective was to identify individual predictive factors of severe chemotherapy toxicities. Methods: The Elderly Cancer Patients (ELCAPA) survey consists in a prospective cohort including patients aged 70 years or older referred for a geriatric assessment (GA) before anticancer treatment, such as chemotherapy for solid cancer. CARG and CRASH score were retrospectively collected. Main endpoint was grade 3/4/5 toxicities for CARG-score, hematologic grade 4/5 and non-hematologic grade 3/4/5 toxicities for CRASH-score. Calibration and discrimination (Area Under ROC Curve, AUC) were evaluated. Results: From July 2010 to March 2017, 248 patients were included. Among them, 150 (61%) experienced severe toxicity as defined in CARG study, and 126 (51%) as defined in CRASH study. There was no increased risk of toxicity in intermediate and high risk groups of CARG-score compared to low risk group (OR = 0.3, IC95% [0.1 – 1.4], p= 0.1; and OR = 0.4, IC95%[0.1 – 1.7], p= 0.2 respectively, AUC-ROC = 0.55). Similarly, there was no more risk of severe toxicities in intermediate low, intermediate high, and high risk groups compared to low risk groups of CRASH combined score (respectively OR = 1, IC95% [0.3 – 3.6], p= 0.99; OR = 1, IC95% [0.3 – 3.4], p= 0.9; OR = 1.5, IC95% [0.3 – 8.1], p= 0.67; AUC-ROC = 0.52). A multivariate predictive model including cancer type, performance status (PS 0 vs. PS 1-2), number of severe comorbidities (Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics, CIRS-G, ≥1 grade 3 or 4 comorbidity), body mass index (BMI > 25 kg/m² protective vs. normal BMI), and Chemotox score (1 vs. 0) had an AUC of 0.78. Conclusions: Neither CARG nor CRASH score was predictive of severe chemotherapy toxicities in the ELCAPA cohort. There is a need to identify new predictors of chemotherapy toxicity in older patients with solid cancers.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adnan Budak ◽  
Emrah Beyan ◽  
Abdurrahman Hamdi Inan ◽  
Ahkam Göksel Kanmaz ◽  
Onur Suleyman Aldemir ◽  
...  

Abstract Aim We investigate the role of preoperative PET parameters to determine risk classes and prognosis of endometrial cancer (EC). Methods We enrolled 81 patients with EC who underwent preoperative F-18 FDG PET/CT. PET parameters (SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV, TLG), grade, histology and size of the primary tumor, stage of the disease, the degree of myometrial invasion (MI), and the presence of lymphovascular invasion (LVI), cervical invasion (CI), distant metastasis (DM) and lymph node metastasis (LNM) were recorded. The relationship between PET parameters, clinicopathological risk factors and overall survival (OS) was evaluated. Results The present study included 81 patients with EC (mean age 60). Of the total sample, 21 patients were considered low risk (endometrioid histology, stage 1A, grade 1 or 2, tumor diameter < 4 cm, and LVI negative) and 60 were deemed high risk. All of the PET parameters were higher in the presence of a high-risk state, greater tumor size, deep MI, LVI and stage 1B-4B. MTV and TLG values were higher in the patients with non-endometrioid histology, CI, grade 3 and LNM. The optimum cut-off levels for differentiating between the high and low risk patients were: 11.1 for SUVmax (AUC = 0.757), 6 for SUVmean (AUC = 0.750), 6.6 for MTV(AUC = 0.838) and 56.2 for TLG(AUC = 0.835). MTV and TLG values were found as independent prognostic factors for OS, whereas SUVmax and SUVmean values were not predictive. Conclusions The PET parameters are useful in noninvasively differentiating between risk groups of EC. Furthermore, volumetric PET parameters can be predictive for OS of EC.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 394-394
Author(s):  
Lavanniya Kumar Palani Velu ◽  
Vishnuvardhan Chandrabalan ◽  
Ross Carter ◽  
Colin McKay ◽  
Donald McMillan ◽  
...  

394 Background: Pancreas-specific complications (PSC), comprising postoperative pancreatic fistula, post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage, and intra-abdominal collections, are drivers of morbidity following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Intra-operatively derived pancreatic gland texture is a major determinant of postoperative PSC. We have previously demonstrated that a postoperative day 0 (PoD0) serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L is an objective surrogate of pancreatic texture, and is associated with PSC. We sought to refine the PSC risk prediction model by including serial measurements of serum C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods: 230 consecutive patients undergoing PD between 2008 and 2014 were included in the study. Routine serum investigations, including amylase and CRP were performed from the pre-operative day. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify a threshold value of serum CRP associated with clinically significant PSC. Results: 95 (41.3%) patients experienced a clinically significant PSC. ROC analysis identified post-operative day 2 (PoD2) serum CRP of 180 mg/L as the optimal threshold (P=0.005) associated with clinically significant PSC, a prolonged stay in critical care (P =0.032), and a relaparotomy (P = 0.045). Patients with a PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L who then developed a PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/L had a higher incidence of postoperative complications. Patients were categorised into high, intermediate and low risk groups based on PoD0 serum amylase and PoD2 serum CRP. Patients in the high risk group (PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l) had significantly higher incidence of PSC, a return to theatre, prolonged lengths stay (all P≤ 0.05) and a four-fold increase in perioperative mortality compared patients in the intermediate and low risk groups (7 deaths in the high risk group versus 2 and nil in the intermediate and low risk groups respectively). Conclusions: A high risk profile, defined as PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l, should raise the clinician’s awareness of the increased risk of clinically significant PSC and a complicated postoperative course following pancreaticoduodenectomy.


2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 8561-8561 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. H. Lyman ◽  
N. M. Kuderer ◽  
J. Crawford ◽  
D. A. Wolff ◽  
E. Culakova ◽  
...  

8561 Background: A nationwide, prospective cohort study was undertaken to develop and validate a risk model for neutropenic complications (NC) in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy. Methods: 3,596 patients initiating a new chemotherapy regimen with solid tumors or lymphoma were registered at 115 randomly selected sites. Data on at least 1 cycle of chemotherapy were available on 3,468. A logistic regression model for cycle 1 NC was derived and then validated using a split sample random selection process. Results: The risk of cycle 1 NC ranged from 5.5%-30.2%, averaging 18.5% across tumor types. No significant differences in distribution of NC or predictive factors were observed between the derivation dataset (n=2,592) or the validation dataset (n=876). Major independent baseline clinical risk factors for cycle 1 NC in the derivation model include: prior chemotherapy (P=.044), number of myelosuppressive agents (P<.0001), anthracycline-based regimens (P<.0001), planned delivery >85% of standard (P<.0001), cancer type (P<.0001), concurrent antibiotics (P=.023) or phenothiazines (P=.006), abnormal alkaline phosphatase (P=.002), elevated bilirubin (P=.031), low platelets (P=.004), elevated glucose (P=.023) and reduced glomerular filtration rate (P=.013). Reduced risk of cycle 1 NC was associated with primary prophylaxis with a myeloid growth factor (P<.0001). Model R2 was 0.273 and c-statistic 0.80 [95% CI: 0.78–0.82; P<.0001]. At the median predicted risk of cycle 1 NC of 11%, model test performance consisted of: sensitivity 84%; specificity 57% and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 7.2 while cycle 1 NC risk was 31% and 6% among high risk and low risk half, respectively. The model performed well in the smaller validation dataset with a model R2 of 0.354 and c-statistic of 0.84 [95% CI: 0.81–0.87, P<.0001]. Test performance of the model in the validation sample included: sensitivity 90%; specificity 62%; DOR 14.1 and risks of 35% and 4% in high risk and low risk patients, respectively. Conclusions: Validation in a randomly selected patient sample suggests that this model has general applicability in identifying patients at increased risk for NC. Further validation in other independent cancer patient populations receiving chemotherapy is planned. [Table: see text]


2014 ◽  
Vol 211 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie-Luise Berres ◽  
Karen Phaik Har Lim ◽  
Tricia Peters ◽  
Jeremy Price ◽  
Hitoshi Takizawa ◽  
...  

Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) is a clonal disorder with elusive etiology, characterized by the accumulation of CD207+ dendritic cells (DCs) in inflammatory lesions. Recurrent BRAF-V600E mutations have been reported in LCH. In this study, lesions from 100 patients were genotyped, and 64% carried the BRAF-V600E mutation within infiltrating CD207+ DCs. BRAF-V600E expression in tissue DCs did not define specific clinical risk groups but was associated with increased risk of recurrence. Strikingly, we found that patients with active, high-risk LCH also carried BRAF-V600E in circulating CD11c+ and CD14+ fractions and in bone marrow (BM) CD34+ hematopoietic cell progenitors, whereas the mutation was restricted to lesional CD207+ DC in low-risk LCH patients. Importantly, BRAF-V600E expression in DCs was sufficient to drive LCH-like disease in mice. Consistent with our findings in humans, expression of BRAF-V600E in BM DC progenitors recapitulated many features of the human high-risk LCH, whereas BRAF-V600E expression in differentiated DCs more closely resembled low-risk LCH. We therefore propose classification of LCH as a myeloid neoplasia and hypothesize that high-risk LCH arises from somatic mutation of a hematopoietic progenitor, whereas low-risk disease arises from somatic mutation of tissue-restricted precursor DCs.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Mengqin Yuan ◽  
Yanqing Wang ◽  
Qinqian Sun ◽  
Shiyi Liu ◽  
Shu Xian ◽  
...  

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ranks fifth among common cancers and is the second most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. This study is aimed at identifying an immune-related long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) signature as a potential biomarker with prognostic value to improve early diagnosis and provide potential therapeutic targets for HCC patients. The subjects of this study were HCC samples with complete transcriptome data and clinical information downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. We then extracted the immune-related mRNA and lncRNA expression profiles. Based on the expression profiles of immune-related lncRNAs, we identified a nine-lncRNA signature that was related to the progression of HCC. The risk score was calculated based on the expression level of the nine lncRNAs of each sample, which divided patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. We found that the increased risk score was associated with a poor prognosis of HCC patients. To assess the accuracy of the survival model, we calculated a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for validation. The curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for the risk score was 0.792. Besides, both principal component analysis (PCA) and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were further used for functional annotation. We found that the distribution patterns were different between the low-risk and high-risk groups in PCA, and the underlying mechanism by which the nine lncRNAs promoted the progression of HCC involved an abnormal immune status. Finally, we analyzed the infiltration of twenty-nine kinds of immune cells and the activation of immune function in HCC using the ssGSEA algorithm. The results showed that aDCs, iDCs, macrophages, Tfh, Th1, Treg, and NK cells were correlated with the progress of HCC patients. And the immune functions including APC costimulation, CCR, check point, HLA, MHC class I, and Type II IFN responses were also significantly different between the high-risk and low-risk groups. In conclusion, our study identified a nine-lncRNA signature with potential prognostic value for patients with HCC, which could be used as a new biomarker for the diagnosis and immunotherapy of HCC.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e21539-e21539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jee Hyun Kim ◽  
Jin Won Kim ◽  
Se Hyun Kim ◽  
Yun-Gyoo Lee ◽  
In Gyu Hwang ◽  
...  

e21539 Background: Older adults have increased risk of developing chemotherapy toxicity. Currently available prediction tools do not provide information on cumulative risk and none are from Asia. Methods: Patients with histologically confirmed solid cancer aged ≥70 years were prospectively enrolled from 17 centers and underwent geriatric assessment before starting their 1st line chemotherapy. Chemotherapy toxicity prediction model was built for adverse events (AEs) ≥G3, among geriatric assessment, laboratory and clinical variables. Model discrimination values were evaluated using c-statistics compared with actual cumulative incidence of AE ≥G3 in each cycle. Results: 301 patients were enrolled with a median age of 75 years (range 70-93). Primary site included colorectal (28.9%), lung (24.6%), hepato-biliary-pancreatic (22.3%), stomach (10.6%) and others (13.6%). Median chemotherapy cycle was 4 (2-7 cycles). During first line chemotherapy, 53.8% of patients experienced AEs ≥G3. Six variables significantly associated with occurrence of AEs ≥ G3 were serum protein < 6.7 g/dL, no dose reduction at first cycle, suffering from psychological stress or acute disease in the past 3 months, water consumption of less than 3 cups per day, not being able to obey command of 'Grab a piece of paper in your hand', and self-perception of ‘not in good health’. Model with all six variables was selected with the highest mean value of c statistics (0.646) and prediction tool indicated score ranging from 0 to 8 points. Patients were classified to 4 risk groups; 61 (21.0%), 143 (49.3%), 66 (22.8%), and 20 (6.9%) in low (0, 1 point), medium-low (2, 3), medium-high (4, 5), and high risk group (6, 7, 8). Predicted cumulative incidence of AEs ≥G3 was discriminated according to risk groups; low risk group: 13%, 19%, 27%, 30%, 30% in cycle 1, cycle 2, cycle 3, cycle 4, cycle 5, medium-low risk: 17%, 37%, 48%, 56%, 60%, medium-high risk: 26%, 44%, 50%, 68%, 75%, and high risk: 45%, 62%, 87%, 94%, 94%. Conclusions: Novel prediction tool could identify those at high risk of developing AEs ≥G3 after chemotherapy, which provided information on cumulative incidence in each cycle.


Author(s):  
Amit Dang ◽  
Surendar Chidirala ◽  
Prashanth Veeranki ◽  
BN Vallish

Background: We performed a critical overview of published systematic reviews (SRs) of chemotherapy for advanced and locally advanced pancreatic cancer, and evaluated their quality using AMSTAR2 and ROBIS tools. Materials and Methods: PubMed and Cochrane Central Library were searched for SRs on 13th June 2020. SRs with metaanalysis which included only randomized controlled trials and that had assessed chemotherapy as one of the treatment arms were included. The outcome measures, which were looked into, were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs) of grade 3 or above. Two reviewers independently assessed all the SRs with both ROBIS and AMSTAR2. Results: Out of the 1,879 identified records, 26 SRs were included for the overview. Most SRs had concluded that gemcitabine-based combination regimes, prolonged OS and PFS, but increased the incidence of grade 3-4 toxicities, when compared to gemcitabine monotherapy, but survival benefits were not consistent when gemcitabine was combined with molecular targeted agents. As per ROBIS, 24/26 SRs had high risk of bias, with only 1/26 SR having low risk of bias. As per AMSTAR2, 25/26 SRs had critically low, and 1/26 SR had low, confidence in the results. The study which scored ‘low’ risk of bias in ROBIS scored ‘low confidence in results’ in AMSTAR2. The inter-rater reliability for scoring the overall confidence in the SRs with AMSTAR2 and the overall domain in ROBIS was substantial; ROBIS: kappa=0.785, SEM=0.207, p<0.001; AMSTAR2: kappa=0.649, SEM=0.323, p<0.001. Conclusion: Gemcitabine-based combination regimens can prolong OS and PFS but also worsen AEs when compared to gemcitabine monotherapy. The included SRs have an overall low methodological quality and high risk of bias as per AMSTAR2 and ROBIS respectively.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Satou ◽  
H Kitahara ◽  
K Ishikawa ◽  
T Nakayama ◽  
Y Fujimoto ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The recent reperfusion therapy for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has made the length of hospital stay shorter without adverse events. CADILLAC risk score is reportedly one of the risk scores predicting the long-term prognosis in STEMI patients. Purpose To invenstigate the usefulness of CADILLAC risk score for predicting short-term outcomes in STEMI patients. Methods Consecutive patients admitted to our university hospital and our medical center with STEMI (excluding shock, arrest case) who underwent primary PCI between January 2012 and April 2018 (n=387) were enrolled in this study. The patients were classified into 3 groups according to the CADILLAC risk score: low risk (n=176), intermediate risk (n=87), and high risk (n=124). Data on adverse events within 30 days after hospitalization, including in-hospital death, sustained ventricular arrhythmia, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure requiring intravenous treatment, stroke, or clinical hemorrhage, were collected. Results In the low risk group, adverse events within 30 days were significantly less observed, compared to the intermediate and high risk groups (n=13, 7.4% vs. n=13, 14.9% vs. n=58, 46.8%, p&lt;0.001). In particular, all adverse events occurred within 3 days in the low risk group, although adverse events, such as heart failure (n=4), recurrent myocardial infarction (n=1), stroke (n=1), and gastrointestinal bleeding (n=1), were substantially observed after day 4 of hospitalization in the intermediate and high risk groups. Conclusions In STEMI patients with low CADILLAC risk score, better short-term prognosis was observed compared to the intermediate and high risk groups, and all adverse events occurred within 3 days of hospitalization, suggesting that discharge at day 4 might be safe in this study population. CADILLAC risk score may help stratify patient risk for short-term prognosis and adjust management of STEMI patients. Initial event occurrence timing Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043837
Author(s):  
Usha Dutta ◽  
Anurag Sachan ◽  
Madhumita Premkumar ◽  
Tulika Gupta ◽  
Swapnajeet Sahoo ◽  
...  

ObjectivesHealthcare personnel (HCP) are at an increased risk of acquiring COVID-19 infection especially in resource-restricted healthcare settings, and return to homes unfit for self-isolation, making them apprehensive about COVID-19 duty and transmission risk to their families. We aimed at implementing a novel multidimensional HCP-centric evidence-based, dynamic policy with the objectives to reduce risk of HCP infection, ensure welfare and safety of the HCP and to improve willingness to accept and return to duty.SettingOur tertiary care university hospital, with 12 600 HCP, was divided into high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk zones. In the high-risk and medium-risk zones, we organised training, logistic support, postduty HCP welfare and collected feedback, and sent them home after they tested negative for COVID-19. We supervised use of appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) and kept communication paperless.ParticipantsWe recruited willing low-risk HCP, aged <50 years, with no comorbidities to work in COVID-19 zones. Social distancing, hand hygiene and universal masking were advocated in the low-risk zone.ResultsBetween 31 March and 20 July 2020, we clinically screened 5553 outpatients, of whom 3012 (54.2%) were COVID-19 suspects managed in the medium-risk zone. Among them, 346 (11.4%) tested COVID-19 positive (57.2% male) and were managed in the high-risk zone with 19 (5.4%) deaths. One (0.08%) of the 1224 HCP in high-risk zone, 6 (0.62%) of 960 HCP in medium-risk zone and 23 (0.18%) of the 12 600 HCP in the low-risk zone tested positive at the end of shift. All the 30 COVID-19-positive HCP have since recovered. This HCP-centric policy resulted in low transmission rates (<1%), ensured satisfaction with training (92%), PPE (90.8%), medical and psychosocial support (79%) and improved acceptance of COVID-19 duty with 54.7% volunteering for re-deployment.ConclusionA multidimensional HCP-centric policy was effective in ensuring safety, satisfaction and welfare of HCP in a resource-poor setting and resulted in a willing workforce to fight the pandemic.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Yan ◽  
Wenjiang Zheng ◽  
Boqing Wang ◽  
Baoqian Ye ◽  
Huiyan Luo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a disease with a high incidence and a poor prognosis. Growing amounts of evidence have shown that the immune system plays a critical role in the biological processes of HCC such as progression, recurrence, and metastasis, and some have discussed using it as a weapon against a variety of cancers. However, the impact of immune-related genes (IRGs) on the prognosis of HCC remains unclear. Methods Based on The Cancer Gene Atlas (TCGA) and Immunology Database and Analysis Portal (ImmPort) datasets, we integrated the ribonucleic acid (RNA) sequencing profiles of 424 HCC patients with IRGs to calculate immune-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Survival analysis was used to establish a prognostic model of survival- and immune-related DEGs. Based on genomic and clinicopathological data, we constructed a nomogram to predict the prognosis of HCC patients. Gene set enrichment analysis further clarified the signalling pathways of the high-risk and low-risk groups constructed based on the IRGs in HCC. Next, we evaluated the correlation between the risk score and the infiltration of immune cells, and finally, we validated the prognostic performance of this model in the GSE14520 dataset. Results A total of 100 immune-related DEGs were significantly associated with the clinical outcomes of patients with HCC. We performed univariate and multivariate least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression analyses on these genes to construct a prognostic model of seven IRGs (Fatty Acid Binding Protein 6 (FABP6), Microtubule-Associated Protein Tau (MAPT), Baculoviral IAP Repeat Containing 5 (BIRC5), Plexin-A1 (PLXNA1), Secreted Phosphoprotein 1 (SPP1), Stanniocalcin 2 (STC2) and Chondroitin Sulfate Proteoglycan 5 (CSPG5)), which showed better prognostic performance than the tumour/node/metastasis (TNM) staging system. Moreover, we constructed a regulatory network related to transcription factors (TFs) that further unravelled the regulatory mechanisms of these genes. According to the median value of the risk score, the entire TCGA cohort was divided into high-risk and low-risk groups, and the low-risk group had a better overall survival (OS) rate. To predict the OS rate of HCC, we established a gene- and clinical factor-related nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve showed that this model had moderate accuracy. The correlation analysis between the risk score and the infiltration of six common types of immune cells showed that the model could reflect the state of the immune microenvironment in HCC tumours. Conclusion Our IRG prognostic model was shown to have value in the monitoring, treatment, and prognostic assessment of HCC patients and could be used as a survival prediction tool in the near future.


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