Projection of cancer incidence and death to 2040 in the US: Impact of cancer screening and a changing demographic.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1566-1566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lola Rahib ◽  
Mackenzie Wehner ◽  
Lynn McCormick Matrisian ◽  
Kevin Thomas Nead
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Intrahepatic Bile Duct ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Screening Programs ◽  
Common Cancer ◽  
The Us

1566 Background: Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of cancer incidence and death trends. As of 2020, breast, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer are the most incident cancers, while lung, colorectal, pancreas, and breast cancer result in the most deaths. Here we integrate observed cancer statistics and trends with observed and estimated US demographic data to project cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Methods: Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence and death rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2014-2016) were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence (2011-2015) and death (2012-2016) rates to project cancer incidences and deaths through the year 2040. We examined the 10 most incident and deadly cancers as of 2020. We utilized Joinpoint analysis to examine changes in incidence and death rates over time relative to changes in screening guidelines. Results: We predict the most incident cancers in 2040 in the US will be breast (322,000 diagnoses in 2040) and lung (182,000 diagnoses in 2040) cancer. Continuing decades long observed incident rate trends we predict that melanoma (173,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 3rd most common cancer while prostate cancer (63,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 5th most common cancer after colorectal cancer (139,000 diagnoses in 2040). Lung cancer (61,000 deaths in 2040) is predicted to continue to be the leading cause of cancer related death, with pancreas (45,000 deaths in 2040) and liver & intrahepatic bile duct (38,000 deaths in 2040) cancer surpassing colorectal cancer (34,000 deaths in 2040) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer related death, respectively. Breast cancer deaths (29,000 in 2040) are predicted to continue to decrease and become the fifth most common cause of cancer death. Joinpoint analysis of incidence and death rates supports a significant past, present, and future impact of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths, particularly for prostate, thyroid, melanoma incidences, and lung cancer deaths. Conclusions: We demonstrate marked changes in the predicted landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040. Our analysis reveals an influence of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths in future years. These projections are important to guide future research funding allocations, healthcare planning, and health policy efforts.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stage at diagnosis of breast and colorectal cancers.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 6501-6501
Author(s):  
Jade Zhou ◽  
Shelly Kane ◽  
Celia Ramsey ◽  
Melody Ann Akhondzadeh ◽  
Ananya Banerjee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Late Stage ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Screening Programs ◽  
Stage Distribution ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The Impact

6501 Background: Effective cancer screening leads to a substantial increase in the detection of earlier stages of cancer, while decreasing the incidence of later stage cancer diagnoses. Timely screening programs are critical in reducing cancer-related mortality in both breast and colorectal cancer by detecting tumors at an early, curable stage. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the postponement or cancellation of many screening procedures, due to both patient fears of exposures within the healthcare system as well as the cancellation of some elective procedures. We sought to identify how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the incidence of early and late stage breast and colorectal cancer diagnoses at our institution. Methods: We examined staging for all patients presenting to UCSD at first presentation for a new diagnosis of malignancy or second opinion in 2019 and 2020. Treating clinicians determined the stage at presentation for all patients using an AJCC staging module (8th edition) in the electronic medical record (Epic). We compared stage distribution at presentation in 2019 vs 2020, both for cancers overall and for colorectal and breast cancer, because these cancers are frequently detected by screening. Results: Total numbers of new patient visits for malignancy were similar in 2019 and 2020 (1894 vs 1915 pts), and stage distribution for all cancer patients was similar (stage I 32% in 2019 vs 29% in 2020; stage IV 26% in both 2019 and 2020). For patients with breast cancer, we saw a lower number of patients presenting with stage I disease (64% in 2019 vs 51% in 2020) and a higher number presenting with stage IV (2% vs 6%). Similar findings were seen in colorectal cancer (stage I: 22% vs 16%; stage IV: 6% vs 18%). Conclusions: Since the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been an increase in incidence of late stage presentation of colorectal and breast cancer, corresponding with a decrease in early stage presentation of these cancers at our institution. Cancer screening is integral to cancer prevention and control, specifically in colorectal and breast cancers which are often detected by screening, and the disruption of screening services has had a significant impact on our patients. We plan to continue following these numbers closely, and will present data from the first half of 2021 as it becomes available.

scholarly journals Using lessons from breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening to inform the development of lung cancer screening programs

Cancer ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 122 (9) ◽  
pp. 1338-1342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Armstrong ◽  
Jane J. Kim ◽  
Ethan A. Halm ◽  
Rachel M. Ballard ◽  
Mitchell D. Schnall
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Screening ◽  
Lung Cancer Screening ◽  
Screening Programs

scholarly journals Cancer incidence in young and middle-aged people with schizophrenia: nationwide cohort study in Taiwan, 2000–2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Y. Chen ◽  
Y. N. Hung ◽  
Y. Y. Chen ◽  
S. Y. Yang ◽  
C. H. Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
General Population ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Psychiatric Admission ◽  
Screening Programs ◽  
Incidence Of Cancer ◽  
Risk Of Cancer ◽  
The Impact

Aims.For nearly a century, the incidence of cancer in people with schizophrenia was lower than in the general population. In the recent decade, the relationship between cancer and schizophrenia has become obscured. Thus, we investigated the cancer risk among young and middle-aged patients with schizophrenia.Methods.Records of newly admitted patients with schizophrenia (n = 32 731) from January 2000 through December 2008 were retrieved from the Psychiatric Inpatient Medical Claims database in Taiwan, and the first psychiatric admission of each patient during the same period was defined as the baseline. We obtained 514 incident cancer cases that were monitored until December 2010. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated to compare the risk of cancer between those with schizophrenia and the general population. Stratified analyses of cancer incidences were performed by gender, site of cancers and duration since baseline (first psychiatric admission).Results.The incidence of cancer for all sites was slightly higher than that of the general population for the period (SIR = 1.15 [95% CI 1.06–1.26], p = 0.001). Men had a significantly higher incidence of colorectal cancer (SIR = 1.48 [95% CI 1.06–2.06], p = 0.019). Women had a higher incidence of breast cancer (SIR = 1.47 [95% CI 1.22–1.78], p < 0.001). Intriguingly, the risk for colorectal cancer was more pronounced 5 years after the first psychiatric admission rather than earlier (SIR = 1.94 [1.36–2.75], p < 0.001) and so was the risk for breast cancer (SIR = 1.85 [1.38–2.48], p < 0.001). The cancer incidence was higher in patients with schizophrenia contradicting the belief that schizophrenia was protective of cancers.Conclusions.Our analyses suggest that men and women with schizophrenia were more vulnerable to certain types of cancers, which indicates the need for gender-specific cancer screening programs. The fact that risk of colorectal cancer was more pronounced 5 years after the first psychiatric admission could imply the impact of unhealthy lifestyles or the possibility of delayed diagnoses.

Cancer incidence in young and middle-aged people with schizophrenia: Nationwide cohort study in Taiwan, 2000–2010

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. S468-S468
Author(s):  
L.Y. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
General Population ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Psychiatric Inpatient ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Psychiatric Admission ◽  
Aged Patients ◽  
Screening Programs ◽  
Risk Of Cancer

AimsThe relationship between cancer and schizophrenia requires re-examination. We investigated the cancer risk among young and middle-aged patients with schizophrenia.MethodsRecords of newly admitted patients with schizophrenia (n = 32.731) from January 2000 through December 2008 were retrieved from the Psychiatric Inpatient Medical Claims database in Taiwan, and the first psychiatric admission of each patient during the same period was defined as the baseline. Five hundred and fourteen incident cancer cases were identified and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated to compare the risk of cancer between those with schizophrenia and the general population. Stratified analyses of cancer incidences were performed by gender, site of cancers, and duration since baseline.ResultsThe incidence of cancer for all sites was slightly higher than that of the general population for the period (SIR = 1.15 [95% CI 1.06–1.26], P = 001). Men had a significantly higher incidence of colorectal cancer (SIR = 1.48 [95% CI 1.06–2.06], P = 0.019). Women had a higher incidence of breast cancer (SIR = 1.47 [95% CI 1.22–1.78], P < .001). Intriguingly, the risk for colorectal cancer was more pronounced 5 years after the first psychiatric admission rather than earlier (SIR = 1.94 [1.36–2.75], P < .001), and so was the risk for breast cancer (SIR = 1.85 [1.38–2.48], P < .001). The cancer incidence was higher in schizophrenic patients contradicting the belief that schizophrenia was protective of cancers.ConclusionsMen and women with schizophrenia were more vulnerable to certain types of cancers, which indicate the need for gender-specific cancer screening programs.Disclosure of interestThe author has not supplied his declaration of competing interest.

Cancer screening in France: 3rd edition of the EDIFICE survey.

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1568-1568
Author(s):  
Jérôme Viguier ◽  
Francois Eisinger ◽  
Yvan Coscas ◽  
Jean F. Morere ◽  
Jean-Yves Blay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Screening ◽  
Screening Test ◽  
Prostate Cancer Screening ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Screening Programs

1568 Background: The EDIFICE survey program started in 2005 and was aimed at providing a better understanding of the participation of the French population in cancer screening programs and assess the evolution over time. The EDIFICE 3 survey was conducted in 2011, following EDIFICE 1 (2005) and EDIFICE 2 (2008), and focused on colorectal, breast and prostate cancer. Methods: This third nationwide observational study, EDIFICE 3, was conducted by phone interviews among a representative sample of 1603 subjects aged between 40 and 75 years, using the quota method. The analysis focused on the target population of the national screening programs for breast and colorectal cancer (50-74 years). The same population was analysed for prostate cancer screening behaviours. Results: For breast cancer, the rate of women attending at least one screening test was 93%/94%/95% in 2005/2008/2011 respectively. A mammography had been performed as recommended within the last two years for 75%/83%/83% among them. We observed an increase in timing compliance between 2005 and 2011, significant for women aged 65-74. For colorectal cancer, the rate of subjects attending at least one screening test was 25%/38%/59%. A fecal test or colonoscopy had been performed according to the recommended timing for NA/30%/51% among them. Colorectal cancer screening has increased significantly in all age groups, especially between 65 and 69 years, and for both genders. For prostate cancer, the rate of men having performed at least one screening test (PSA and/or rectal examination) was 36%/49%/50%.This rate have significantly decreased in men aged 50-59 between 2008 and 2011(44% vs 37%, p<0.05). Conclusions: For National Programs, the attendance rate remains high for breast cancer screening and is improving for colorectal cancer screening. However, the European guideline objective rate of participation for colorectal cancer screening has not yet been reached. Despite the absence of recommendations, prostate cancer screening is frequently carried out and stable overall.

scholarly journals The impact of episodic screening interruption: COVID-19 and population-based cancer screening in Canada

2020 ◽  
pp. 096914132097471
Author(s):  
Jean HE Yong ◽  
James G Mainprize ◽  
Martin J Yaffe ◽  
Yibing Ruan ◽  
Abbey E Poirier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Colorectal Cancers ◽  
Primary Screening ◽  
Advanced Adenomas ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Background Population-based cancer screening can reduce cancer burden but was interrupted temporarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the long-term clinical impact of breast and colorectal cancer screening interruptions in Canada using a validated mathematical model. Methods We used the OncoSim breast and colorectal cancers microsimulation models to explore scenarios of primary screening stops for 3, 6, and 12 months followed by 6–24-month transition periods of reduced screening volumes. For breast cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, additional advanced-stage cases diagnosed, and excess cancer deaths in 2020–2029. For colorectal cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, undiagnosed advanced adenomas and colorectal cancers in 2020, and lifetime excess cancer incidence and deaths. Results Our simulations projected a surge of cancer cases when screening resumes. For breast cancer screening, a three-month interruption could increase cases diagnosed at advanced stages (310 more) and cancer deaths (110 more) in 2020–2029. A six-month interruption could lead to 670 extra advanced cancers and 250 additional cancer deaths. For colorectal cancers, a six-month suspension of primary screening could increase cancer incidence by 2200 cases with 960 more cancer deaths over the lifetime. Longer interruptions, and reduced volumes when screening resumes, would further increase excess cancer deaths. Conclusions Interruptions in cancer screening will lead to additional cancer deaths, additional advanced cancers diagnosed, and a surge in demand for downstream resources when screening resumes. An effective strategy is needed to minimize potential harm to people who missed their screening.

Cancer screening. Current state of the problem

2020 ◽  
pp. 4-12
Author(s):  
Marina Kochiyeva
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Colon Cancer ◽  
Cancer Screening ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Screening Programs ◽  
Current State ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Based Medicine

Data on modern methodological approaches that are used in screening for cancer are summarized. General principles of organizing screening studies are examined from the perspective of evidence-based medicine, target population, research methods, and effectiveness of the implemented screening programs for breast cancer, cervical cancer, and colon cancer are determined.

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